Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 350 tons, totaling 144,425 tons, with a change of -0.24% [1] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 1,225 tons, totaling 515,925 tons, with a change of -0.24% [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 600 tons, totaling 43,800 tons, with a change of -1.35% [1] - Tin inventory increased by 45 tons, totaling 2,740 tons, with a change of +1.67% [1] - Aluminum alloy inventory remained unchanged at 1,500 tons [1] Group 2: Registered and Cancelled Warrants - For copper, registered warrants increased by 1 to 133,025 tons, while cancelled warrants decreased by 3.18% to 11,400 tons [2] - For aluminum, registered warrants increased by 0.12% to 407,850 tons, while cancelled warrants decreased by 1.55% to 108,075 tons [2] - For zinc, registered warrants remained unchanged at 30,725 tons, while cancelled warrants decreased by 4.39% to 13,075 tons [2] - For tin, registered warrants increased by 0.64% to 2,355 tons, while cancelled warrants increased by 8.45% to 385 tons [2] Group 3: Location-Specific Inventory Changes - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory increased by 50 tons to 52,300 tons [4] - In Rotterdam, copper inventory decreased by 100 tons to 17,100 tons [4] - In Klang, aluminum inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 340,025 tons [5] - In Singapore, zinc inventory decreased by 600 tons to 43,700 tons [9] - In Hamburg, tin inventory remained unchanged at 3,075 tons [11]

Group 1 - Copper prices surged, with the night session opening high and reaching a peak of 82,980 yuan, marking the highest point since late March this year, closing up 3.4%, while international copper rose by 3.58% [1] - Freeport announced a force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia and lowered its copper sales forecast, highlighting the vulnerability of the mining sector and intensifying the tension in raw material supply [1] - Following the mudflow incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine, Freeport indicated that it would notify commercial counterparts of the force majeure situation and reduced its third-quarter copper sales guidance by 4% [1] Group 2 - The preliminary assessment suggests that the Grasberg mine may return to pre-incident operational levels by 2027, with Freeport's 2026 copper production target lowered by 35% compared to pre-incident levels, raising concerns over global copper supply [1] - Jinrui Futures stated that the short-term supply and demand are weakening, expecting a continued tight balance in the market, with prices likely to shift to a stronger trend due to significant mining disruptions [1]

Core Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global zinc market surplus of 72,000 tons for the period of January to July 2025, a decrease from a surplus of 185,000 tons in the same period of 2024 [1] Summary by Category Production and Consumption - Global refined zinc production for January to July 2025 is recorded at 7,915,000 tons, slightly up from 7,864,000 tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - Global refined zinc consumption for January to July 2025 reached 7,843,000 tons, an increase from 7,679,000 tons in the same period of 2024 [1] Supply-Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance for global refined zinc shows a surplus of 72,000 tons for January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 185,000 tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - The overall supply-demand balance for the year 2024 was a deficit of 156,000 tons, while in 2023, there was a surplus of 284,000 tons [1]

Core Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a surplus of 30,000 tons in the global lead market for the period of January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 10,000 tons during the same period in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Summary - Global refined lead production for January to July 2025 is projected at 7,702 thousand tons, an increase from 7,537 thousand tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - Global refined lead consumption for January to July 2025 is estimated at 7,672 thousand tons, slightly up from 7,527 thousand tons in the previous year [1] - The supply-demand balance for global refined lead shows a surplus of 30 thousand tons for January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 10 thousand tons in the same period of 2024 [1]

SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn 秘鲁矿业公司Minsur的一名高管周三表示，该公司将于10月启动通往一座地下铜矿的隧道爆破工作，预计将耗资约5亿美元，这是Justa矿山扩张计划的一部 分。 Minsur首席执行官Juan Luis Kruger在秘鲁南部阿雷基帕与矿业高管举行的论坛上表示，该地下矿场的目标是成为该国第二大矿场。 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices surged to a 15-month high due to Freeport's announcement of force majeure at its Grasberg mine and a significant reduction in 2026 production guidance [1][3] - As of September 24, LME three-month copper closed at $10,336.50 per ton, up $362.00 or 3.63% [1][2] - Freeport-McMoRan expects a 4% decrease in copper sales volume for Q3, raising concerns about tightening supply [3] Group 2 - The Grasberg Block Cave mine experienced a fatal landslide on September 8, leading to a suspension of operations, with a phased restart not expected until mid-2026 [3] - The market has absorbed some supply tightness, but Freeport's statement indicates a potential 35% reduction in 2026 output compared to previous estimates, contributing to a 3.9% increase in copper prices [3] - The strong US dollar has put pressure on the market, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors holding other currencies [3] Group 3 - In the US, spot aluminum premiums reached a historical high of $0.74 per pound (equivalent to $1,631 per ton), nearly doubling since the increase of aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% [3] - Minsur, a Peruvian mining company, plans to start tunnel blasting for an underground copper mine in October, with an estimated cost of $500 million as part of its Justa mine expansion [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in copper prices in the Shanghai market, reaching a new high since March 26, 2025, driven by the upward trend in London copper prices [1] - Freeport-McMoRan has projected a decline of approximately 4% in consolidated copper sales volume for the third quarter, intensifying concerns over supply tightening [1]

（截至9月24日23:08分，伦铜行情走势） | 分时 | 5日 ▲ | 5分钟 | 15分钟 30分钟 60分钟 | 日线 | 周线 | 月线 | 更多周期 ▼ | | 竟价 ▼ | 畳加 ▼ | ម្រើ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合铜03 分时 成交量 持仓量 | | | | | | | | | | | 10341.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10288.6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10236.3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10183.9 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10131.6 | | | | | | | | W | MAI | | | | 10079.2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10026.9 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9974.50 | | | | | | | Antony | | | | | | 9 ...

Group 1 - The overall inventory levels for various metals show fluctuations, with copper decreasing by 200 tons (-0.14%) to 144,775 tons, while aluminum increased by 3,300 tons (+0.64%) to 517,150 tons [1][2] - Zinc inventory decreased by 1,375 tons (-3.00%) to 44,400 tons, while tin saw an increase of 120 tons (+4.66%) to 2,695 tons [1][2] - The registered warehouse receipts for aluminum are at 407,375 tons, with a cancellation of 109,775 tons, indicating a cancellation ratio of 21.23% [5] Group 2 - Specific locations show varied inventory changes, with Rotterdam's copper inventory decreasing by 150 tons to 17,200 tons, while Kaohsiung's aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 45,300 tons [4][5] - The registered and cancelled warehouse receipts for zinc indicate a cancellation ratio of 30.80%, with a total of 30,725 tons registered [9] - Tin inventory in various locations shows a total increase, with the registered warehouse receipts at 2,340 tons and a cancellation of 355 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 13.17% [11]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦锡库存呈区间波动格局，最新库存水平为2575吨，位于逾三个月相对高位。 上海期货交易所公布数据显示，9月19日当周，沪锡库存有所去化，周度库存减少11.51%至6988吨，降至两个半月新低。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所锡库存对比 以下为2025年9月以来LME和上期所锡库存数据：（单位：吨） （文华综合） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/23 | 2, 575 | | | 2025/9/22 | 2, 580 | | | 2025/9/19 | 2, 505 | 6, 988 | | 2025/9/18 | 2, 645 | | | 2025/9/17 | 2, 645 | | | 2025/9/16 | 2, 645 | | | 2025/9/15 | 2. 645 | | | 2025/9/12 | 2, 620 | 7,897 | | 2025/9/11 | 2, 385 | | | 2025/9/10 | 2, ...