伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦锡库存呈区间波动格局，最新库存水平为2575吨，位于逾三个月相对高位。 上海期货交易所公布数据显示，9月19日当周，沪锡库存有所去化，周度库存减少11.51%至6988吨，降至两个半月新低。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所锡库存对比 以下为2025年9月以来LME和上期所锡库存数据：（单位：吨） （文华综合） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/23 | 2, 575 | | | 2025/9/22 | 2, 580 | | | 2025/9/19 | 2, 505 | 6, 988 | | 2025/9/18 | 2, 645 | | | 2025/9/17 | 2, 645 | | | 2025/9/16 | 2, 645 | | | 2025/9/15 | 2. 645 | | | 2025/9/12 | 2, 620 | 7,897 | | 2025/9/11 | 2, 385 | | | 2025/9/10 | 2, ...

Group 1 - Copper prices experienced slight fluctuations, closing up by 0.03%, supported by supply and demand dynamics despite cautious remarks from Powell [1] - Hudbay Minerals announced a temporary closure of its Constancia copper mine in Peru due to safety issues, but stated that this would not impact the company's annual production levels significantly [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low, and recent declines in sulfuric acid prices necessitate monitoring of domestic copper smelting operations [1] Group 2 - Jin Yuan Futures noted that Powell's recent comments maintain a hawkish stance, indicating that the current monetary policy is moderately restrictive, complicating the assessment of the job market's tight balance [2] - Codelco has lowered its production guidance for the Teniente mine, and the Panama copper mine is unlikely to resume production this year, contributing to a negative outlook for spot TC [2] - Domestic refined copper is expected to see production cuts in September, with social inventories remaining low, leading to a forecast of stable copper prices with limited downside adjustment [2]

9月23日（周二），印尼国有媒体Antara周二援引该国矿业部副部长Yuliot Tanjung的话报道称，该国已 暂停了190个煤炭和矿业开采许可证，因为这些许可证未能履行修复矿山受损土地的义务或遵守生产配 额。 Yuliot Tanjung称，"这是基于矿产和煤炭总局进行的全面评估。" 数据显示，截至2024年底，该国已经发放4,600多个采矿许可证。 该国总统Prabowo Subianto曾誓言打击非法开采自然资源，其中包括采矿部门。 他称，许可证暂停与对矿产商开采后土地复垦义务的评估以及开采超过配额等问题有关。 目前尚不清楚暂停开采将对这个资源丰富的国家的煤炭和矿产产量产生多大影响。 ...

Core Insights - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global copper market surplus of 101,000 tons for January to July 2025, a decrease from a surplus of 401,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper production for January to July 2025 reached 16.565 million tons, up from 15.944 million tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper consumption for January to July 2025 was 16.464 million tons, compared to 15.543 million tons in the previous year [1] Production and Consumption Data - In July 2025, global refined copper production was 2.5 million tons, while consumption was 2.441 million tons, indicating a surplus of 57,000 tons [1] - The global copper mine production for January to July 2025 was 13.477 million tons, an increase from 13.039 million tons in the same period last year [1] - The global copper smelting capacity utilization rate was 82% in 2025, consistent with previous years [1] Inventory and Supply-Demand Balance - The global refined copper ending inventory for 2025 was reported at 1.371 million tons, showing a decrease from 1.523 million tons in 2024 [1] - The refined copper supply-demand balance for 2025 indicated a surplus of 101,000 tons, a significant improvement from a deficit of 359,000 tons in 2021 [1] - Seasonal adjustments to the refined copper supply-demand balance showed a surplus of 261,000 tons for 2025 [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose on September 23 due to supply disruptions and interest rate cuts, offsetting concerns over high inventories and a sluggish global economy [1][4] - The three-month copper futures closed at $9,974.50 per ton, up $12.00 or 0.02% [2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 13%, although it has retreated from a 15-month high of $10,192.50 reached last week [5] Group 2 - The Grasberg mine, one of the world's largest copper mines, remains offline following an accident in early September [4] - U.S. copper inventories surged by 241% this year, reaching 318,285 short tons, primarily due to anticipated tariffs [4] - Southern Copper Corporation expects stable copper production in Peru, having invested $800 million in projects [5] Group 3 - Nickel was the best-performing LME base metal on September 23, rising by 0.93% or $141.00 to $15,345 per ton, following Indonesia's suspension of 190 coal and mineral mining licenses [5]

数据来源：海关总署 据中国海关数据统计，2025年8月中国镍湿法中间品进口量17.06万吨，环比增加1.58万吨，增幅 10.21%；同比增加4.84万吨，增幅39.56%，创单月新高。其中自印度尼西亚进口量为13.79万吨，环比 增加4.78%，占本月进口量的80.80%。 ...

海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国氧化铝8月出口量为18.05万吨，环比下降21.32%，同比增加25.99%。 出口主要流向仍为俄罗斯、印度尼西亚等。2025年1-8月中国氧化铝累计出口175.32万吨，同比增长 59.29%。 数据来源：海关总署 ...

据中国海关数据统计，2025年8月中国镍锍进口量1.69万吨，环比减少1.92万吨，降幅53.18%；同比减 少5.14万吨，降幅75.27%，降至2023年12月以来新低。 数据来源：海关总署 ...

Core Insights - In August 2025, China's bauxite (bauxite ore and its concentrates) imports reached 18.29 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 8.8% but a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [1] - Guinea remains the largest supplier of bauxite, although its shipments fell by 22.7% month-on-month to 12.33 million tons due to large-scale shutdowns in the Axis mining area and the onset of the rainy season affecting mining operations [1] Summary by Category - **Import Volume** - China's bauxite imports in August 2025 were 18.29 million tons, down 8.8% from the previous month and up 17.6% compared to the same month last year [1] - **Supplier Analysis** - Guinea continues to be the primary source of bauxite, with shipments decreasing by 22.7% to 12.33 million tons in August 2025 [1] - Other countries have shown varying degrees of increase in their bauxite shipments during the same period [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that China's refined copper imports in August amounted to 307,200 tons, representing a month-on-month decrease of 8.17% but a year-on-year increase of 11.14% [1] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo remains the largest supplier of refined copper to China, with a supply volume of 126,300 tons, which is a month-on-month decrease of 11.55% but a year-on-year increase of 26.49% [1] - Russia is the second-largest supplier, providing 25,200 tons, which reflects a month-on-month decrease of 17.56% but a significant year-on-year increase of 173.10% [1] Group 2 - There are signs of improvement in import price ratios in late August, although most of the time, the market remains unprofitable [1]