Core Viewpoint - Glencore has expanded its operations in Peru by acquiring the Quechua copper project, enhancing its position among metal producers in the country [1] Group 1 - The acquisition of the Quechua copper project is located adjacent to Glencore's existing Antapaccay operations in Peru [1] - This strategic move is aimed at strengthening Glencore's presence in the Peruvian mining sector [1]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦锡库存整体先降后增，本周库存继续累积，最新库存 水平为3815吨，增至近十个月新高。 （文华综合） 2023年以来LME和上期所锡库存对比 以下为2025年12月以来LME和上期所锡库存数据：（单位：吨） 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/16 | 3,815 | | | 2025/12/15 | 3, 795 | | | 2025/12/12 | 3, 670 | 7, 391 | | 2025/12/11 | 3, 695 | | | 2025/12/10 | 3, 655 | | | 2025/12/9 | 3.050 | | | 2025/12/8 | 3, 075 | | | 2025/12/5 | 3, 085 | 6, 865 | | 2025/12/4 | 3.175 | | | 2025/12/3 | 3, 195 | | | 2025/12/2 | 3. 145 | | | 2025/12/1 | 3, ...

与此同时，摩根士丹利预计2026年锌价将小幅下跌至每吨2,900美元。该行表示："随着中国锌出口的增 加，伦敦金属交易所（LME）库存回升，且矿产供应将在2026年继续增长，我们认为2026年锌价将小 幅下行。" 摩根士丹利预计，随着需求增长与供应增长速度相近，镍价将朝向每吨15,500美元回落。该银行表示， 印尼的政策变化对供应构成下行风险，而在电动汽车电池的市场份额的持续下滑抑制了需求，导致市场 在2026年之前持续供过于求。 摩根士丹利在一份报告中指出，预计到2026年第二季度，铝价将达到每吨3,250美元，因为需求将超过 供应。同时，铜/铝价格比率处于近期区间的顶部，表明价格仍有上涨空间。 12月16日（周二），摩根士丹利修正了其对2026年铝、锌、镍和铅的价格预测，理由是预期降息、美元 走软以及投资者对实物资产需求的增长推动了金属市场前景强劲。 该银行还预计，2025年铜市将出现26万吨的供应缺口，2026年缺口将达到60万吨。 摩根士丹利表示，美国以外的铜库存较低，如果美国继续进口铜，由于数据中心需求的增长超过供应增 长，铜库存可能会减少。 铅方面，摩根士丹利预测，平均价格将略高于每吨2,000美 ...

锌价预计在2026年小幅回落至2900美元/吨，而镍价则可能回落至15500美元/吨，因需求增速与供应增 速基本持平。 铅价方面，摩根士丹利预测均价将略高于2000美元/吨，伦敦金属交易所库存高企表明市场处于供过于 求状态。 该行同时预计，2025年铜市场将出现26万吨缺口，2026年缺口将扩大至60万吨，因此没有太多容许供应 中断的空间。 12月16日（周二），摩根士丹利调整对铝、锌、镍和铅的2026年价格预期。 该机构在报告中指出，预计2026年第二季度铝价为每吨3250美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have declined due to investor assessment of recent U.S. employment data, with year-end liquidity issues exacerbating price volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market Analysis - On December 16, LME three-month copper fell by $63.5, or 0.54%, closing at $11,592 per ton [1][2]. - Copper prices reached a record high of $11,952 last week due to concerns over supply tightness [3]. - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by over 30%, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009, driven by mining disruptions and rising demand expectations from AI data centers and energy transition [3]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department reported a combined loss of 41,000 jobs for October and November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021 [3]. - The report was affected by data collection issues during the government shutdown, marking the first instance of missing monthly unemployment rate data since the survey began in 1948 [3]. Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum rose by $10.5, or 0.37%, closing at $2,876.5 per ton, supported by a decrease in registered aluminum warehouse stocks [2][4]. - LME three-month zinc fell by $52, or 1.68%, closing at $3,041.5 per ton, while lead prices increased slightly by $1, or 0.05%, to $1,942 per ton [2][4]. - LME three-month nickel decreased by $83, or 0.58%, closing at $14,263 per ton, having reached an eight-month low earlier [6]. Group 4: Future Market Expectations - Morgan Stanley predicts a shift from surplus to shortage in the copper market by 2025, with a projected shortfall of 260,000 tons [4]. - The firm has adjusted its price forecasts for aluminum, zinc, nickel, and lead for 2026, expecting aluminum prices to be around $3,250 per ton and zinc to slightly decline to $2,900 per ton [7].

此前受印尼出口许可证审批延误，以及印尼政府打击国内锡矿非法开采影响，10月印尼锡锭出口出现明 显下滑。但印尼严厉打击非法采矿，主要是为了加强对本国锡产业管控，随着印尼行政流程的改善以及 打击走私的事件结束，印尼当地国企天马被授权运营邦加-勿里洞省六座没收的非法冶炼厂，还享受采 矿审批优先、出口许可证审批优先等政策红利，天马后续锡锭产量或将抬升。11月印尼出口恢复正常， 据印尼贸易部数据显示，印尼11月精炼锡出口量为7458.64吨，较去年同期增长25.59%，环比增长 182%，创近两年单月新高。印尼锡锭出口恢复，将有利于缓解锡市供应紧张的局面。 当前锡价高企对下游采购形成明显制约，市场询价及挂单活跃度显著回落，持币观望情绪持续发酵，现 货成交仅靠刚需维系，下游补库意愿降至冰点，整体市场交投氛围陷入低迷。下游订单水平较为疲软， 终端需求依旧维持刚需，多反馈终端高价下单意愿偏低，实际需求释放或将等待价格下行才能出现。费 电子需求端未见起色，终端环节正处于主动去库存阶段，采购行为严格限定于刚需范畴，叠加新增订单 增量有限，需求复苏节奏缓慢，短期内整体需求面仍将处于弱势运行状态。 沪锡大幅下挫，主力合约收跌3.15 ...

12月15日（周一），高盛（Goldman Sachs）将2026年铜价预估从此前的每吨10,650美元上调至每吨 11,400美元，理由是精炼铜关税在2026年上半年实施的可能性降低，对可负担性的担忧成为当务之急。 与此同时，由于COMEX期铜上涨，本已创下历史新高的COMEX铜库存仍在持续增加。美国将精炼铜 排除在8月份生效的50%进口关税之外，但仍在对其进行审查。 芝商所发布的数据显示，12月12日COMEX铜库存达到450,618短吨，创历史新高水平。 高盛表示，特朗普政府有55%的可能性在2026年上半年宣布对铜进口征收15%的关税，并计划于2027年 实施，并可能在2028年提高到30%。 该投资银行表示，未来关税的前景可能会使美国铜价高于LME铜，并推升库存，这将收紧美国以外市 场的供应，而美国现在是全球铜价的关键驱动力。 高盛表示："对2027年铜价的预估维持在每吨10,750美元不变，我们预测一旦关税就位和美国以外市场 恢复平衡，那么LME铜价将回落。" 该行还将2026年全球市场供应过剩规模的预测从16万吨上调至30万吨。 （文华综合） 伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜周一上涨140.5 ...

12月15日（周一），高盛（Goldman Sachs）周一将2026年铜价预估从此前的每吨10,650美元上调至每 吨11,400美元，理由是精炼铜关税在2026年上半年实施的可能性降低，因为对可负担性的担忧成为当务 之急。 高盛表示，他们认为铜价很容易受到与人工智能相关的价格调整影响。 （文华综合） 高盛表示："对2027年铜价的额预估维持在每吨10,750美元不变，我们预测一旦关税就位和美国以外市 场恢复平衡，那么LME铜价将回落。" ...

Group 1 - Peru's copper production in October increased by 4.8% year-on-year, reaching 248,192 tons [1] - From January to October, Peru's total copper production was 2,296,587 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - Peru is currently the third-largest copper producer globally, following the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chile [2] Group 2 - In October, Peru's zinc production rose by 30.9% year-on-year to 134,029 tons [2] - The lead production in October was 26,955 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [2] - Tin production in October reached 3,094 tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 31.7% [2] Group 3 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [3] - To assist the industry in addressing these challenges, a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" has been compiled [3]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices increased due to a weaker dollar, while other base metals experienced declines [1] Group 1: Copper Market Performance - On December 15, LME three-month copper rose by $140.5, or 1.22%, closing at $11,655.50 per ton [2] - Last week, copper prices reached a record high of $11,952 due to supply concerns, but were later sold off amid fears of an AI bubble burst [3] - LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, or 0.02%, to 165,875 tons, with 39.43% of the inventory marked for delivery [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum fell by $2.50, or 0.09%, closing at $2,866.00 [2] - LME three-month zinc decreased by $31.50, or 1.01%, closing at $3,093.50 [2] - LME three-month lead dropped by $27.00, or 1.37%, closing at $1,941.00, marking its lowest level since May [4] - LME three-month nickel declined by $241.00, or 1.65%, closing at $14,346.00 [2] - LME three-month tin fell by $390.00, or 0.94%, closing at $40,947.00 [2] Group 3: COMEX Market Insights - COMEX copper inventory reached a historical high of 450,618 short tons on December 12 [4] - The exclusion of refined copper from the 50% import tariff effective in August is under review, which may impact market dynamics [3] - The presence of a significant arbitrage window between LME and CME copper prices is expected to drive metal flows to the U.S. as traders seek profits [4]