Group 1 - During the May Day holiday, the international metal market showed a low-to-high trend, with overall fluctuations being minor compared to the pre-holiday closing prices. Specifically, the price of tin on the London market decreased by 1.48% compared to the pre-holiday period [1] - The domestic tin market was inactive during the May Day holiday, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The downstream processing enterprises had a weaker purchasing intention before the holiday, primarily focusing on essential purchases [2] - In April, China's refined tin production saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decline of 8.13%, attributed to a tightening supply chain of tin concentrate and scrap tin, which imposed rigid constraints on production capacity [1] Group 2 - The supply pressure of tin mines in May remains challenging, with global inventories continuing to decrease, providing support for tin prices. However, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to increase supply, potentially limiting the upward price movement [1] - Some tin processing enterprises have gradually resumed production after May 3, starting to fulfill post-holiday orders. These enterprises had previously stocked up on sufficient inventory at lower prices, leading to a cautious approach towards replenishing stock based on market conditions and order situations [2] - The current market commentary suggests that while raw material supply is tight, consumption expectations have been revised downwards, indicating that the corrected supply-demand balance is not significantly imbalanced, and prices may continue to fluctuate widely [2]

五一假期，全球金融市场风险事件扎堆，日本央行一如预期维持利率不变，调降经济增长预估；美国4月 非农报告表现强劲，推后美联储降息预期；OPEC 同意6月石油产量增加41.1万桶/日，OPEC 料将进一步 加快增产步伐。 美国第一季度经济三年来首次萎缩，关税生效前企业大力囤货导致进口创纪录；美国4月制造业进一步萎 缩，关税挤压供应链令投入价格居高不下；美国初请失业金人数升至两个月最高，高于市场预期。 美国股市节节攀升，三大指数纷纷创出逾一个月高位，聚焦美联储政策前景；日本股市连续第七个交易 日上涨，创下2023年8月以来最长连涨纪录；香港恒生指数创近一个月新高，贸易紧张有缓和迹象；美元 指数从三周高位回落，就业数据良好且贸易局势缓和；离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.20关口，为去年11月 以来首次。 大宗商品方面，CBOT大豆探底回升，一度跌至两周低点，受贸易战情绪影响；伦铜5月持续反弹，寄希 望于贸易紧张局势缓和；金价从两周低位回升，强劲的就业报告令金价承压；油价继续探底，因OPEC 将 加速增产引发供应增加担忧。 **美国股市连续第二周上涨** 美国股市在五一假期涨势明显，周线连续第二周上涨，三大股指创出逾一个月 ...

Economic Data Overview - The U.S. economic data released during the holiday period showed mixed results, with weak GDP and manufacturing data initially clouding growth prospects [2] - The U.S. Q1 GDP preliminary value declined by 0.3%, contrary to the expected growth of 0.3% [2] - The U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, the lowest since November 2024, but was above the market expectation of 48 [2] - U.S. non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] Copper Market Dynamics - Chile's copper production in March increased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a significant month-on-month rise of 20%, reaching 477,049 tons [3] - Domestic demand for refined copper remains strong, leading to a decrease in domestic refined copper social inventory compared to the previous year [3] - LME copper inventory has been declining, currently around 197,300 tons, while COMEX copper inventory has been accumulating, reaching 152,616 tons as of May 5 [4] Trade and Market Sentiment - Global trade tensions show signs of easing, although uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies persist [2] - The market sentiment improved slightly due to better-than-expected employment and inflation data, alleviating some recession fears [2] - LME copper prices experienced fluctuations, with a notable drop of over 3% on April 30, marking the largest monthly decline since June 2022 [5]

Group 1 - In April, copper prices initially fell to 72,000 yuan/ton before recovering to around 77,000 yuan/ton due to rising market risk aversion and subsequent easing of trade tensions by the U.S. government [2] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with 15 to 18 key partners, with India likely to be the first to reach an agreement, while the trade negotiations with China are intensifying [3] - The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, with processing fees declining significantly, and major mining companies have lowered their production guidance for 2025 [4] Group 2 - The import of scrap copper from the U.S. has dropped sharply, with March imports falling to 22,000 tons, a 29% decrease, as China imposes high tariffs on U.S. goods [5] - Social copper inventory has decreased for eight consecutive weeks, with a total of 155,100 tons, reflecting a tightening supply and increasing domestic demand [6] - The domestic copper market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with increased production in the face of limited imports, and the operating rate of major copper rod enterprises has risen to 79.56% [6] Group 3 - Overall, the copper market is facing weak supply, but demand is marginally improving due to domestic policies and overseas exports, although the sustainability of this demand recovery is in question [8] - The high tariffs imposed by both the U.S. and China are expected to severely impact consumer demand for durable goods, with potential negative effects on future demand [8] - The progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations will be crucial for copper prices, which may continue to rise if negotiations go smoothly, but could face downward pressure if they stall [8]

Group 1 - London copper prices increased due to concerns over recent supply tightness, with three-month copper rising by $62 to $9,440 per ton [1] - The three-month aluminum price rose by $31.50 to $2,465.50 per ton, while zinc and lead also saw increases of $16 and $10 respectively [2] - Nickel and tin prices, however, decreased, with nickel falling by $65 to $15,550 per ton and tin down by $102 to $31,919 per ton [2] Group 2 - COMEX copper inventories increased by 40% this month amid investigations into potential new copper import tariffs by Washington, with a significant premium of $1,443 per ton over LME copper [3] - The global copper market is expected to see a surplus increase from 138,000 tons last year to 289,000 tons this year, with continued oversupply projected for next year [3] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $162 billion in March, indicating a significant drag on first-quarter GDP growth, estimated to be as much as 1.9 percentage points [3]

Group 1 - The recent decline in waste battery prices has led to a slight recovery in the profitability of recycled lead enterprises, although they still operate at a loss, with losses narrowing from approximately 700 yuan/ton to about 500 yuan/ton [3][4] - The decrease in social inventory of lead ingots is primarily due to weak downstream demand, with battery demand entering a low season and terminal distributors' battery inventories at seasonal highs [5][6] - The short-term outlook for lead prices remains under pressure due to weak demand, but medium-term expectations suggest limited downside potential, supported by the need for battery companies to replenish stocks [6] Group 2 - The recent drop in waste battery prices is attributed to increased selling pressure from recyclers ahead of the May Day holiday, despite prices remaining at 10,300 yuan/ton, leading to continued losses for recycled lead enterprises [4] - The decline in social inventory of lead ingots is mainly a result of reduced production from recycled lead companies, with expectations of a rebound in inventory post-holiday due to weak consumption [5][6] - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of price fluctuations within the range of 16,500 to 17,300 yuan for Shanghai lead and 1,920 to 2,050 USD for London lead [6]

Group 1 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) held a meeting on April 25, 2025, in Lisbon, Portugal, discussing key issues affecting the global copper market [2] - Global copper mine production is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2025, reaching 23.5 million tons, driven by expansions in Kamoa (Democratic Republic of Congo) and Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), along with the new Malmyz mine (Russia) [3] - In 2026, global copper mine production is projected to increase by 2.5%, supported by ongoing expansions and improvements in production from Chile and Zambia [4] Group 2 - Global refined copper production is anticipated to grow by approximately 2.9% in 2025, with support from capacity expansions in China and new capacities in Indonesia, India, and the Democratic Republic of Congo [5] - Primary electrolytic refined production is expected to increase by 3%, while secondary production from scrap is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2025 [6] - In 2026, global refined copper production is expected to decline by 1.5%, primarily due to limited supply of concentrates, despite growth in wet smelting and secondary production [6] Group 3 - Global apparent refined copper usage is projected to grow by about 2.4% in 2025 and by 1.8% in 2026, with a downward adjustment from previous forecasts due to uncertainties in international trade policies [8][9] - China’s refined copper usage is expected to grow by approximately 2% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, while Asia remains the main driver of global growth [10] - The overall global usage is expected to benefit from improvements in key copper end-use sectors, energy transition, urbanization, and digitalization [10] Group 4 - The global refined copper balance is forecasted to show a surplus of approximately 289,000 tons in 2025 and about 209,000 tons in 2026 [11][12] - The surplus forecast for 2025 is higher than the previous estimate of 194,000 tons, indicating potential changes in production and usage dynamics [12] - ICSG acknowledges that unforeseen developments may alter the actual market balance compared to predictions [11]

Market Overview - Tin prices have shown strong performance, rising over 10% year-to-date, but faced pressure following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the US in early April [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price reached a nearly three-year high of $38,395 per ton on April 2, before sharply declining to $28,925 per ton by April 9, marking a nearly 20% drop within a week [2] - Despite recent volatility, tin prices continue to outperform other metals, supported by ongoing supply challenges [2] Supply Dynamics - LME tin inventories have decreased by over 40% since the beginning of the year, reaching a low of 2,810 tons by the end of April, the lowest level since June 2023 [2] - In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have surged over 70% this year, reaching nearly 9,000 tons, the highest level since September of the previous year [2] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in February increased over 100% month-on-month to 3,670 tons, driven by higher demand from major buyers and increased exports to other Asian markets [3][4] Import Challenges - Myanmar's ongoing issues continue to pressure tin ore imports for major consuming countries, with China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in March 2025 dropping 64% year-on-year to 8,322.55 tons [5] - The cumulative import volume for January to March 2025 was 26,900 tons, reflecting a 55% year-on-year decline [5] - Although there are hopes for supply recovery following a recent meeting by Wa State authorities to outline new mining and processing licensing procedures, the timeline remains uncertain [6] Consumption Trends - Global refined tin consumption has started strong this year, with an estimated 8% year-on-year growth in the first two months, driven by robust demand from countries like India and Japan [8] - However, potential risks to domestic and export-driven demand may arise from US tariffs, which could dampen economic momentum [9] Production Outlook - The mining ban in Myanmar is expected to end soon, but the restart of operations faces delays and rising costs, with a recent meeting discussing new mining license applications [10] - Alphamin Resources announced a phased restart of its Bisie mine, which accounts for about 6% of global supply, but has lowered its 2025 tin production forecast from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons due to increased anti-government activity [10]

Core Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association has urged the government to delay the upcoming increase in royalties until the LME nickel price reaches $17,000 per ton [2] - LME nickel prices have dropped over 2% since early April, currently around $15,500 per ton, with the last time prices hit $17,000 being in mid-October 2024 due to mining quota approval delays [2] - Increased LME nickel inventories are exerting downward pressure on prices [3] Exports - Nickel ore exports from the Philippines increased by 21% year-on-year from January to February 2025 [4] - The rainy season in southern Philippines has ended, leading to expected increases in medium-grade nickel ore shipments from the Surigao mine [5] Imports - In March, China imported 1,535,232.97 tons of nickel ore and concentrates, a month-on-month increase of 34.54% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.06% [6] - The Philippines remains the largest supplier, with March imports of nickel ore and concentrates at 1,205,652.098 tons, a month-on-month increase of 63.95% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.51% [6] - China's nickel pig iron imports in March reached 1,013,259.492 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.55% and a year-on-year increase of 60.58% [6] - Indonesia is the largest supplier of nickel pig iron, with March imports at 989,055.225 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.58% and a year-on-year increase of 60.70% [6] Consumption - Global nickel consumption increased by 11% year-on-year in February [7] Production - A major nickel mine operated by GEM in Sulawesi, Indonesia, has halted production and is under review due to safety concerns following a landslide [9] - The mine has advanced smelting facilities with an annual nickel production capacity of 150,000 tons, capable of producing 50,000 tons of high-nickel precursor materials [9] - Indonesia's nickel production surged last year, leading to the closure of several large mines in other regions, including Glencore's Koniambo mine in New Caledonia, which saw a 48% decline in production in 2024 and a continued 50% decline in early 2025 due to ongoing unrest [9] Industry Dynamics - The manufacturing PMI in China for March was reported at 50.5%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in manufacturing activity [8] - LG Energy Solution has exited an $8.45 billion electric vehicle battery project in Indonesia, shifting focus to a joint venture with Hyundai, highlighting the dynamic changes in the global battery market amid demand uncertainty and tightening profits [8]

Group 1: Market Trends - LME three-month copper prices fell significantly in early April, dropping 11% in the first two weeks, erasing all gains for the year, with a low of $8,613 per ton on April 9 [2] - Copper prices rebounded in the following weeks due to U.S. tariff exemptions on certain electronic imports and a significant decline in the dollar [3] Group 2: Exports - Chile, the largest copper exporter, shipped 93,909 tons of copper to the U.S. in the first two months of 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, as traders aimed to avoid potential import tariffs [3] - China's refined copper exports surged 156% year-on-year in Q1, reaching 117,491 tons [4] Group 3: Imports - China's refined copper imports in March 2025 totaled 354,275.469 tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.11% and a year-on-year increase of 11.80%, with significant increases from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia [5] - U.S. refined copper imports rose 43% year-on-year in February to 58,326 tons, with shipments from Chile increasing by 53% [6] Group 4: Consumption - Global refined copper consumption is estimated to have increased by 9% year-on-year in February, driven by demand recovery in major consuming countries [7] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for March was reported at 51.2, up 0.4 points from February, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [8] Group 5: Production - Global refined copper production is expected to grow by 9% in the first two months of the year [10] - Codelco's copper production in Chile declined for the second consecutive month, with February output down 6% year-on-year to 98,100 tons, attributed to operational disruptions at key mines [10] - In contrast, BHP's Escondida mine saw a 16% year-on-year increase in production in February, reaching 113,400 tons [10]