Group 1 - Southern Copper expects stable copper sales despite uncertainties in tariff policies, with demand shifting from construction to energy and technology sectors [1] - The CFO of Southern Copper, Raul Jacob, maintains a positive outlook on the copper market, predicting a transition in demand from infrastructure to new energy technologies and artificial intelligence [1] - Solar power generation requires more copper than traditional carbon power, and the development of AI also necessitates significant amounts of copper, zinc, and silver, supporting price stability in the coming years [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, Southern Copper produced 242,004 tons of copper, an increase from 240,679 tons in the same period last year, with production growth of 11.6% at the Toquepala mine in Peru [1] - The company is prepared to shift exports to other markets if necessary, despite the U.S. suspending a 25% copper tariff, which will help mitigate external shocks [1] - The Tia Maria project in Arequipa has seen 61% completion in road and platform construction, with updated capital expenditures of $200 million for this year, $980 million for 2026, and $46 million for 2027 [2] - The Tia Maria project is expected to produce 120,000 tons annually, and there is high social acceptance with minimal opposition [2]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing downward pressure due to a strong dollar and uncertainty in demand, with LME three-month copper prices falling to $9,374.00 per ton, a decrease of 0.2% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month copper closed at $9,374.00, down $18.50 or 0.2%, while earlier in the week it reached a high of $9,481.50, the highest level since April 3 [1] - Other base metals also saw declines, with three-month aluminum down $21.00 (0.86%), zinc down $41.00 (1.53%), lead down $15.00 (0.77%), and tin down $276.00 (1.74%) [2][7] - In contrast, three-month tin increased by $217.00 (0.68%) [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - WisdomTree commodity strategist Nitesh Shah highlighted the uncertainty surrounding trade disputes and their potential impact on demand, contributing to the current market sluggishness [3] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 32% decrease in monitored copper inventories this week, raising concerns about potential short squeezes [3][5] - U.S. Comex copper futures fell by 0.2% to $4.85 per pound, with a premium of $1,289 per ton over LME prices, influenced by easing tariff tensions and a stronger dollar [6] Group 3: Company-Specific Updates - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, reported a first-quarter copper output of 296,000 tons, a 0.3% increase year-on-year, with a production target of 1.37 to 1.4 million tons for the year [6] - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine achieved a first-quarter production of 95,728 tons, marking one of its best quarterly performances, with expectations for an upward revision of its annual production guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 tons [6] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) projected a supply surplus in the global refined zinc and lead markets by 2025, with refined lead supply exceeding demand by 82,000 tons and refined zinc supply exceeding demand by 93,000 tons [7]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices have been experiencing volatility following significant tariff announcements, with long-term price pressures remaining unchanged despite short-term fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Processing Fees and Production Recovery - Zinc ore processing fees have increased significantly, with domestic processing fees at 3,450 CNY/ton and imported fees at 35 USD/ton, marking increases of 2,000 CNY and 75 USD from historical lows [2] - The rise in processing fees is attributed to a substantial year-on-year increase in imported zinc ore, which rose by 37% to 1.22 million tons in the first quarter [2] - Domestic smelting profits have improved, with average profits for domestic ore at 904 CNY/ton and imported ore at 575 CNY/ton, leading to a gradual resumption of production in smelters that had previously halted operations [2] Group 2: Demand and Economic Outlook - Current demand for zinc remains subdued, primarily maintaining existing levels without significant growth expectations, influenced by mixed economic growth across major economies [3] - The U.S. government's tariff measures have raised concerns about potential economic recession, although temporary relief has been provided through tariff exemptions [3] - Domestic economic policies are focused on stability, with limited expectations for significant boosts in traditional sectors like infrastructure and real estate [3] Group 3: Inventory Dynamics - Domestic social inventory of zinc has decreased significantly, reaching a low of 85,800 tons, while LME inventory stands at 182,300 tons, indicating ongoing inventory depletion [4] - The recent drop in zinc prices has prompted downstream industries to replenish their inventories, contributing to the continued reduction of social inventory [4] Group 4: Price Structure and Future Outlook - The near-term zinc contracts are trading stronger than long-term contracts, with a price spread of approximately 600, indicating a deepening backwardation [5] - Despite short-term price fluctuations, the long-term outlook for zinc prices remains under pressure due to anticipated increases in global refined zinc production and a potential oversupply situation [6] - The demand for zinc is closely tied to macroeconomic growth, with a stable global economy expected to maintain demand levels, while trade conflicts could lead to a decline in demand [6]

4月24日（周四），秘鲁Las Bambas铜矿报告，第一季度创下历年最佳季度表现之一，得益于更高的选 矿品味和回收率提升。 根据五矿资源（MMG）的报告，位于Apurímac地区的中资控股的Las Bambas铜矿在今年第一季度生产 了95,728吨铜，高于去年同期的56,025吨。 由于Chalcobamba矿坑的优化，Las Bambas自2024年第四季度以来一直满负荷运行，这将是公司的中期 重点。今年的产量指引为360,000-400,000吨，但在第一季度业绩公布后，预期会提升。 五矿资源表示："在第一季度强劲的运营表现和年化产量趋向于该范围的上限之后，公司正在评估上调 其产量预测下限的可能性。如果秘鲁的社会动荡没有造成重大中断，预计Las Bambas在2025年的产量将 达到预测范围的高端。" Las Bambas铜矿在去年生产了322,912吨铜。该矿在过去曾遭到强烈的社区反对，特别是在用于运输精 矿的路线沿线。 第一季度选矿品味增至0.88%，高于2024年第一季度的0.54%，铜回收率从86.2%升至88.1%。 Ferrobamba矿坑和新的Chalcobamba矿坑保持稳定运营，La ...

4月24日（周四），伦敦期铜徘徊在接近三周高点的水平，受美元走弱提振，但美国关税的持续不确定 性令铜价走势震荡。 Hansen补充道："关税解决方案不会在一夜之间实现，需要很长的时间，因此破坏性的经济影响可能无 法避免。" 周四公布业绩的多个行业的企业表示，他们正在提高价格、削减财务预期，并警告贸易战带来的不确定 性日益增加。 美国Comex期铜上涨0.2%，至每磅4.85美元，较LME期铜升水为每吨1,272 美元，反映出交易商押注美 国可能对铜征收关税的影响。 美元指数下跌支撑工业金属。美元贬值使得以美元计价的商品对于使用其他货币的买家来说更便宜。 其他基本金属上涨 伦敦时间4月24日17:00(北京时间4月25日00:00)，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜上涨10美元，或 0.11%，收报每吨9,392.5美元。上一交易日触及4月3日以来的最高水平9,481.50美元。LME期铜自本月 触及17个月低点8,105美元以来已上涨16%。 | | 4月24日 LME基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金属 | 收盘价 | 张跌 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing volatility due to escalating global trade disputes, with recent price fluctuations reflecting a return to previous levels after a significant drop [2][11] Group 1: Trade and Economic Impact - The U.S. has been facing significant economic challenges, including a large debt scale and trade deficits, leading to increased tariffs as a means to address domestic issues [2] - Recent tariff measures have heightened concerns about potential disruptions in global trade chains, which could negatively impact economic growth and increase inflation [3] - The U.S. administration's shift towards a more conciliatory trade stance has improved market sentiment, resulting in a rebound in risk assets that were previously affected [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite a slight increase in global copper production, the expansion of smelting capacity has outpaced it, leading to a tightening supply situation [4] - Recent incidents in Peru, particularly at the Antamina mine, could further strain copper supply if production is disrupted for an extended period [4] - Domestic copper smelting facilities are facing challenges due to low processing fees, which have dropped significantly, impacting their production viability [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Domestic refined copper inventories have been rapidly decreasing, influenced by high prices and a subsequent drop in purchasing enthusiasm from downstream sectors [8] - The traditional peak season for copper demand is nearing its end, and concerns about future demand are growing due to the potential impact of tariffs on exports, particularly in the machinery and electronics sectors [10] - Overall, while there is strong support for copper prices in the short term, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to macroeconomic pressures and potential demand weakening [11]

SHMET 网讯： 氧化铝自上市以来经历了从"炙手可热"到"跌落神坛"的过山车行情，去年在多重因素影响下，期价拉升至5540元/吨的历史高点，而后随着供应端复产开 启，氧化铝供应逐渐转向宽松，去年12月起盘面开始继续下跌，到今年4月6日创历史新低2663元/吨，随后盘面企稳反弹，目前氧化铝期价在2800一线上方 震荡运行。 集中检修减产增多，但氧化铝供应过剩预期不改 氧化铝消费难有明显增量 2024年受供需错配、成本上涨等多重因素影响，氧化铝价格单边上行。受此影响，企业利润抬升，在大幅盈利刺激下，氧化铝提产、复产、扩产与项目新建 积极性增加。2025年以来，随着广西、山西等地新增产能集中释放，氧化铝供应从紧缺转向宽松，随之而来的是氧化铝价格暴跌，从Mysteel统计数据来 看，目前山东地区氧化铝现货价格最低降至2840元/吨，较年初水平下降50%。 虽然氧化铝现货价格和生产成本同步下滑，但由于成本降幅不及氧化铝，导致目前大部分地区炼厂已击穿成本线，据悉，除使用贵州国产铝土矿、广西国产 铝土矿生产氧化铝的产能尚可有小幅盈利外，氧化铝进入全面亏损状态。 受此影响，近期检修减产影响产能偏多，使氧化铝产量有所下降，供 ...

4月23日（周三），伦敦期铜触及三周高位，因对全球贸易紧张局势的担忧有所缓解。 伦敦时间4月23日17:00(北京时间4月24日00:00)，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜上涨13.5美元， 或0.14%，收报每吨9,382.5美元。盘中触及9,481.5美元高点，为4月3日以来的最高水平。自本月早些时 候触及17个月低点8,105美元以来，铜价已上涨逾15%。 | | 4月23日 LME基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 全屋 | 收盘价 | 张跌 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9,382.50 1 | +13.50 1 +0.14% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,432.00 ↑ | +52.00 ↑ +2.18% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,639.50 1 | +43.50 ↑ +1.68% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,946.00 ↑ | +22.50 ↑ +1.17% | | 三个月期镇 | 15.662.00 J | -20.00 -0.13% | | 三个月期锡 | 31,314.00 ↑ | +186.00 ↑ +0.60% | 一位铜交易商 ...

【机构会诊】：近两周国内精铜社会库存去化加速，主要受哪些因素影响？去库状态大概会延续到何时？ 山金期货投资咨询部负责人 王云飞：我们认为近期精铜库存的持续走弱主要是以下两个原因：首先是关税背景下库存的转移。从库存分布看近期国内库存 占全球比重持续回落，美铜库存大幅走高，库存的转移无疑加速了国内库存的下降。其次是国内电力用铜消费的前置效应。尽管从年初的规划数字看25年电 力投资的总体增速或较24年放缓，但截至一季度的数据显示实际增速明显好于24年同期，因此对铜的需求带来的较大的拉动。目前的去库状态可能会在二季 度后期放缓，一方面关税带来的抢出口效应消退，海外库存也将逐步面临需求考验；另一方面国内的实际需求增长尤其电力领域可能逐步降速，叠加淡季效 应影响需求总体预计降温。 SHMET 网讯： 在经历了4月初的恐慌性暴跌后，沪铜迅速展开反弹，仅用一个交易日就从8个月低位重返75000点，此后持续走高，补齐了上方的巨大缺口。 最近国内铜精矿现货加工费继续下跌，秘鲁又传来铜矿停工消息，矿紧对于铜价的支撑会强化吗？近两周国内精铜社会库存去化加速，主要受哪些因素影 响？去库状态大概会延续到何时？结合当前宏观面和供需面，期铜 ...

4月22日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜触及逾两周最高，美元走软推动基金买盘，但鉴于美 国进口关税主导市场情绪，交易商怀疑铜价能否保持上行势头。 伦敦时间4月22日17:00(北京时间4月23日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨180.5美元，或1.9%，收报每吨 9,369.0美元，盘中触及4月3日以来最高水平9,398.5美元。 | | 4月22日 LME基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金属 | 收盘价 | 张跌 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9,369.00 ↑ | +180.50 ↑ +1.96% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.380.00 1 | +14.50 ↑ +0.61% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,596.00 ↑ | +19.00 ↑ +0.74% | | 三个月期铅 | 1.923.50 ↑ | +1.50 ↑ +0.08% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,682.00 ↑ | +60.00 ↑ +0.38% | | 三个月期锡 | 31,128.00 ↑ | +485.00 ↑ +1.58% | 美国加征的关税削弱了全球经济增长和 ...