Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by various factors, including the performance of precious metals, domestic inventory levels, and macroeconomic conditions, with a cautious outlook on future demand and pricing trends [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Copper prices opened higher and showed a strong upward trend during the day, closing up by 0.43% [1] - The sentiment in the metal market was boosted by a significant rise in precious metals [1] - Domestic refined copper social inventory continues to decline, contributing to a slight rebound in copper prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's cautious stance following the September interest rate cut has led to a temporary rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which, along with a pullback in precious metals, caused a correction in copper prices [1] - However, dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials over the weekend have renewed market expectations for future monetary easing, improving market sentiment and supporting a rebound in copper prices [1] Group 3: Import and Supply Dynamics - Customs data indicates that China's copper ore imports increased both year-on-year and month-on-month in August [1] - Despite the increase in imports, domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low, indicating a tight supply situation that is unlikely to change in the near term [1] Group 4: Inventory and Demand Outlook - National mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons over the weekend [1] - According to Everbright Futures, the anticipated demand during the "golden September and silver October" period has not yet materialized, with downstream purchasing remaining cautious due to high prices and macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - The upcoming National Day holiday may lead to unpredictable overseas macro risks, contributing to a cautious sentiment in the domestic market, which could affect weekly price volatility [1] - Overall, the prevailing liquidity easing in global financial markets suggests a generally strong outlook for copper prices, with potential opportunities for downstream replenishment if prices weaken [1]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周前几日伦铝库存变化不大，9月18日库存大增逾3万吨， 最新库存水平为513,900吨，增至逾六个月新高。 上期所公布的数据显示，9月19日当周，沪铝库存小幅下降，周度库存减少0.6%至127,734吨，位于逾三 个月相对高位。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所铝库存对比 以下为2025年9月以来LME和上期所铝库存数据：（单位：吨） ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $49, or 0.49%, closing at $9,989.0 per ton, driven by signs of improving demand from China ahead of the National Day holiday [1][2] - The copper price has decreased by 2% from a 15-month high of $10,192.50 due to profit-taking after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2] - The Yangshan copper premium, reflecting China's import demand, rose by 1.8% to $57 per ton [2] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts copper prices to range between $9,500 and $10,500 per ton in Q4, with a potential rise to $12,000 by 2026, driven by a projected 2.9% increase in refined copper consumption next year [3] - The global copper market is expected to shift from a surplus of 63,000 tons this year to a shortage of 308,000 tons [3] Group 3 - LME aluminum prices fell by $13, or 0.48%, closing at $2,671.5 per ton, with a recent peak of $2,720 per ton due to a widening premium in the spot market [4] - The average price for aluminum in Q4 is expected to be around $2,650 [4] Group 4 - LME zinc prices decreased by $27.5, or 0.94%, closing at $2,889.0 per ton, with a significant drop in registered warehouse stocks indicating supply tightness [5] - Despite the tightness in registered stocks, the spot market for zinc remains adequately supplied [5] Group 5 - LME lead prices fell by $9.5, or 0.47%, closing at $1,996.5 per ton [6] - LME nickel prices decreased by $1, or 0.01%, closing at $15,271.0 per ton [7] - LME tin prices increased by $461, or 1.37%, closing at $34,172.0 per ton [7]

Core Viewpoint - A Canadian Indigenous group is pledging to challenge the merger between Teck Resources and Anglo American unless meaningful consultations regarding the expansion of a smelter in British Columbia are conducted [1][2] Group 1: Merger Details - Teck Resources and Anglo American have agreed to merge, creating a mining giant valued at over $50 billion [1] - As part of the deal, the companies plan to invest up to CAD 750 million in the Trail operations to explore increased copper processing and expand the production of germanium and other metals [1] Group 2: Indigenous Concerns - Chief Clarence Louie stated that the smelter is located on land managed by the Osoyoos Indian Band and emphasized the lack of meaningful negotiations regarding the proposed merger and investment [1] - The Chief expressed the need for discussions on Indigenous participation in environmental and cultural issues, as well as potential employment and revenue-sharing related to the Trail operations [2] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The Canadian government has the authority to block the proposed transaction under the Investment Canada Act [1] - Teck and Anglo American have committed to investing CAD 4.5 billion in Canada if the merger is approved, with plans to relocate their joint headquarters to Teck's base in Vancouver [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $56, or 0.56%, closing at $9,940.00 per ton, marking the lowest level since September 10 [1] - The decline in copper prices was attributed to profit-taking by traders following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement and the subsequent strengthening of the US dollar [1][4] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 97.46, although it remains down approximately 10.2% year-to-date, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies [4] Group 2 - Among base metals, aluminum was the only one to see an increase, rising by $1.50, or 0.06%, to $2,684.50 per ton due to supply tightness [4] - LME three-month zinc prices decreased by $27, or 0.92%, closing at $2,916.50 per ton [5] - LME three-month lead prices fell by $6.50, or 0.32%, to $2,006.00 per ton [6] - LME three-month nickel prices dropped by $133, or 0.86%, to $15,272.00 per ton [7] - LME three-month tin prices decreased by $634, or 1.85%, to $33,711.00 per ton, reaching the lowest level since August 22 [8]

Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased to 148,875 tons, down by 900 tons from the previous day, with registered warrants at 135,425 tons and canceled warrants at 13,450 tons, representing a cancellation ratio of 9.03% [1][3] - Aluminum inventory increased to 513,900 tons, up by 30,125 tons, with registered warrants at 404,675 tons and canceled warrants at 109,225 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 21.25% [1][5] - Zinc inventory decreased slightly to 48,825 tons, with registered warrants at 31,375 tons and canceled warrants at 17,450 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 35.74% [1][9] - Nickel inventory decreased to 228,450 tons, with registered warrants at 220,668 tons and canceled warrants at 7,782 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 3.41% [1][13] Warehouse Specific Changes - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory remained stable at 52,200 tons, with no changes in inflow or outflow [3] - Rotterdam saw a decrease in copper inventory to 18,050 tons, down by 200 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 14.13% [3] - Singapore's zinc inventory decreased to 48,725 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 35.76% [9] - The inventory of tin in the port of Klang remained unchanged at 1,850 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 7.84% [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract falling by 1.46% to 269,100 yuan/ton, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and limited improvement in domestic downstream consumption [1] - Domestic smelting plants are facing reduced operating rates, with a reported operating rate of 28.48% for refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi, marking a year-to-date low [1] - The recovery of tin mines in Myanmar is slower than expected, with significant production unlikely before November, while tin mine inventories in Yunnan are below the 30-day safety line, leading to increased processing costs and some companies experiencing production losses [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the tin market suggests that the combination of the Federal Reserve's dovish statements and hawkish comments will lead to a weak and volatile price trend, with a focus on lower integer support levels [2] - The LME inventory is stabilizing and domestic consumption is not improving, which is dragging down tin prices, while the supply of refined tin remains constrained due to regular maintenance at large smelting plants [2]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a downturn, influenced by the Federal Reserve's cautious interest rate cut and the overall decline in precious and non-ferrous metals, with a particular focus on downstream demand for copper [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledging a weakening job market and mentioning inflation concerns [1] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected this year and one in the next year, aligning with market expectations, although Powell's comments were more hawkish than anticipated [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, market sentiment weakened, leading to a stabilization of the US dollar index at lower levels, and a subsequent decline in precious and non-ferrous metals [1] - The copper price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.36% during the trading session, reflecting ongoing weak performance [1] Group 3: Demand Outlook - High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand, necessitating close monitoring of future demand improvements [1]

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined nickel surplus of 3.6 million tons in July 2025, with production at 320,100 tons and consumption at 284,500 tons [1] - For the period from January to July 2025, global refined nickel production reached 2,237,600 tons, while consumption was 1,993,400 tons, resulting in a surplus of 244,300 tons [1] - In July 2025, global nickel ore production was 350,700 tons, and for the first seven months of 2025, it totaled 2,326,200 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that China's zinc production in August 2025 reached 651,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [1] Production Insights - In August, domestic smelters increased production, with regular maintenance occurring in regions such as Hunan and Gansu. In contrast, areas like Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia focused on resuming operations after maintenance. Additionally, new production capacity in regions like Jiangxi and Inner Mongolia continued to be released, leading to a month-on-month increase in zinc production [1] - In September, SMM reported that maintenance at smelters was primarily concentrated in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, and Yunnan. Some recycled zinc enterprises experienced a decline in production due to rising raw material prices and tight supply. However, production increased in regions such as Hunan, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Hubei, resulting in an overall production adjustment [1]