想要完全掌握一种手法，至少需要实盘训练半年以上，才能消化里面的一些细节。总结一招，就要猛练 一招，不然我们根本不会了解到其中的优缺点和适用场景。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250507— 太多的巧合：中美，印巴，双降（-中美将在瑞士会晤-降准降息落地-股市偏强+资金 面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 在"924"的学习效应下，今日债市止盈者众。预期管理了半年了的降准降息今天终于落地，债农天天埋 怨YM怎么还在"择机"。今朝落地，每月都预测一波降息的债农还是不满：一个坏掉的钟，一天也能对 两次。但这次对了，下次不知还要多久哇。 中美大佬瑞士约茶，双方发言堪比言情剧剧本： 中方表示会谈是应美方请求举行的，属"霸道总裁"风：对方主动约的我。 美方表示瑞士谈判是"凑巧"，为"口嫌体正直"风：只是转角遇到爱啦。 今天很多的巧合，中美关税问题要会晤了，巴铁干掉印度6驾战机，国内降准降息落地。这么多的内外 利好在同一天展现，很多时候还是需要亮亮拳头的。 央行公开市场开展1955亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有5308亿元逆回购到期，净回笼3353亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金价格延续回落，DR001 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. on various asset classes, highlighting a mixed performance across markets and the implications for monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The expectation of eased tariffs has led to a strong performance in the stock market, with an increase of over 1% [2]. - The bond market showed a slight decline in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.62% [2]. - The currency market exhibited strength, indicating positive sentiment regarding trade relations [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Caixin Services PMI for April was reported at 50.7, below the expected 51.8, suggesting weaker service sector performance [2]. - During the May Day holiday, travel reached 314 million trips, with an average daily travel of 6.3 million, and per capita spending was 574 yuan, which is lower than the 603 yuan recorded in 2019 [2]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Insights - The article presents two interpretations of consumer behavior during the holiday: a low emotional intelligence perspective suggests a downgrade in consumption, while a high emotional intelligence perspective indicates an upgrade in experiences [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of identifying risks early through "time stop-loss" strategies, emphasizing the need to understand normal market logic as a benchmark for assessing risks [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The official manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49, significantly lower than the previous value of 50.5, indicating weak performance [5] - The bond market shows fluctuations with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.625% after initial movements [5] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 530.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan after 108 billion yuan matured [3][5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - The weighted rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.85% (up 2 bp), R007 at 1.84% (up 3 bp), and R014 at 1.80% [4] - The total transaction volume for repos is reported at 43,651.13 million yuan, showing a decrease of 15,883.52 million yuan [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment - There is a slight decline in the stock market, attributed to the weak PMI data and tightening liquidity conditions [5] - Concerns are raised regarding potential market volatility during the upcoming May Day holiday, prompting defensive strategies among investors [6]

当我们感悟到异常，发现预期差时，阻碍我们去行动的最大障碍就是"希望交易"，尤其是，当市场已经开始出现相应的波动后，"回头看"会让我们后悔没 有在最佳的位置买入或卖出，于是就希望市场回到之前的位置再执行。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250429— 经济学 VS 医学（+博弈明日PMI数据+资金面均衡偏松=小下)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展3405亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2205亿元逆回购到期，净投放1200亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，DR001下至1.54%附近，DR007因跨月小幅上至1.78%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.04.29) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.59 | 3 1 | | 2. ...

上涨了，恐高的天性就会让你欲卖出落袋为安，上车的人一震就跑，没上的人，要么一直不敢上处于踏空中，要么一震就做空。总之，震荡中多数人眼里 看到的不是上车做多的机会，而是恐慌。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250428— 川大智胜，耗子尾汁（+"稳就业"发布会未超预期+资金面均衡偏松=小下)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展2790亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1760亿元逆回购到期，净投放1030亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，DR001小幅下至1.59%附近，DR007因跨月小幅上至1.75%附近。 2400006 1.8800/1.8800/1.8680/1.8700 -1.10 -------------------------- 周末宏观消息面平静，早盘债市情绪略偏积极，10Y国债利率基本平开在1.655%后小幅下至1.65%附近。上午"稳就业稳经济"发布会未超预期，股市午后 小幅下跌，资金面全天均衡偏松，10Y国债利率小幅下至1.64%附近。 -------------------------- 从我们上周五的问卷调查结果来看，超七成的投资者选择"持券过节"而非"持币过节"。今日发布会 ...

资金面均衡偏松，DR001下行2BP至1.58%附近、DR007下行8BP至1.64%附近。 异常只是一种感觉，在有感觉之后，要找预期差。越是政策意图或方向上的预期差，给市场带来的波动就越大，而不是自己的感觉，政策意图上的边际变 化，才是债市波动的根本推动力。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250425— 操盘的艺术：3296->3297->3295，1.6575->1.6575->1.6575（-彭博称中国考虑豁免部分对美关税+政治局会议未超预期+资金面均衡偏松 =微上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率微幅上行。 央行公开市场开展1595亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2505亿元逆回购到期，净回笼910亿元。 -------------------------- 【今日盘面】 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 04. 25) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) ...

右侧，成功率更高，获利更为客观；同样的，与其主观预测行情结束，不如等行情盘整并开始反转后离 场，虽然这样会错过一部分利润，但相比起错失之后可能的行情延续，这些代价是值得的。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250423— 上，每调买机；下，落袋为安（-特朗普称或将大幅降低对华关税-传央行调研久期错 配风险+资金面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展1080亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1045亿元逆回购到期，净投放35亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，DR001与DR007双降，前者下行近8个bp至1.63%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 04. 23) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交重占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.66 | -7 | | ...

右侧，成功率更高，获利更为客观；同样的，与其主观预测行情结束，不如等行情盘整并开始反转后离场，虽然这样会错过一部分利润，但相比起错失之 后可能的行情延续，这些代价是值得的。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250423— 上，每调买机；下，落袋为安（-特朗普称或将大幅降低对华关税-传央行调研久期错配风险+资金面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展1080亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1045亿元逆回购到期，净投放35亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，DR001与DR007双降，前者下行近8个bp至1.63%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.04.23) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利车 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.66 | | | 2.50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a personal investment system rather than making impulsive trading decisions, highlighting the need for patience and observation of market trends before entering trades [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with a notable decline in long-term bond yields [1]. - The central bank conducted a 22.05 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 16.45 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 5.6 billion yuan [1]. - The funding prices have slightly retreated, with DR001 and DR007 both around 1.7% [1][2]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a slight increase, recovering to 3300 points, just 9 points away from a complete gap fill [4]. - The U.S. stock market faced volatility after a brief rebound due to tariff suspensions, while Chinese stocks showed patriotic enthusiasm with retail investors actively participating [4]. Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold has emerged as a strong performer, with Citigroup recently raising its three-month price target to 3500, which was reached within three trading days [5]. - The article notes a significant increase in gold and jewelry sales, with a 28.5% year-on-year growth, contrasting with a broader decline in retail sales [5][6]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The retail sales data for March shows a year-on-year decline of 9.9%, with various categories experiencing negative growth, except for food and gold jewelry [6]. - The total retail sales for the first quarter were reported at 34.59 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.3% year-on-year decrease [6].

资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显下行。 【笔记20250422— 购金大户不止央妈，还有大妈（+传MLF投标区间下移+资金面均衡偏松=中下)】 央行公开市场开展2205亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1645亿元逆回购到期，净投放560亿元。 试盘，不是让我们盲目地跟着感觉去随意地入场，赚了就加仓，亏了就止损。而是要建立自己的一套投资体系，哪怕只是简单的出入场标准。建立体系标 准之后，认真观察市场走势，耐心等待入场条件。 ——笔记哥《应对》 | | | | 2025年1-3月 | | | 单位:万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 | 글 | | 3月 | 同比增长(%) | 1-3月 | 同比增长(%) | | 社会消费品零售总额 | | | 10485729 | -9.9 | 34585593 | -3.3 | | 其中:限额以上批发和零售业、住宿和孵饮业网上零售额 | | | 4102255 | -13.8 | 12815218 | 0.5 | | 按消费形态分 | | | | | | | | 餐饮收入 | | | 1112777 | -3 ...