Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of observing marginal changes in policies rather than focusing on repetitive information, particularly in the context of recent developments in the financial market and international relations [1]. Group 1: Financial Market Overview - The liquidity in the financial market is balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.41% and DR007 at approximately 1.53% [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 135 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 291.1 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 156.1 billion yuan [1]. - The weighted average rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.45% (down 1 bp), R007 at 1.55% (down 2 bp), and R014 at 1.59% (down 1 bp) [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions to International Events - Following the recent phone call between the Chinese and U.S. presidents, there was a slight initial decline in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.675% and later fluctuating down to around 1.6675% [4]. - The market sentiment was initially weak but quickly recovered, with the 10-year bond yield stabilizing between 1.65% and 1.70% for nearly a month [4]. - The article notes that the international headlines were overshadowed by a conflict between Trump and Musk, despite the significance of the U.S.-China dialogue [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that market information is abundant and both positive and negative signals coexist, making it problematic to directly correlate events with outcomes [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 126.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 266 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan [1]. - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with stable funding rates; DR001 and DR007 remained around 1.41% and 1.55% for three consecutive days [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower at 1.669% and fluctuated around 1.67% throughout the day [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Caixin Services PMI for May was reported at 51.1, slightly above the previous value of 50.7, indicating a modest expansion in the services sector [3]. - The central bank's early announcement of a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation was seen as a protective measure ahead of a significant maturity of 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the news of a potential China-US dialogue, the stock market experienced a slight uptick, while the bond market showed minimal volatility with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating only 1 basis point [3]. - The article suggests that the real dynamics are occurring in the "dark card" area, where the implications of the China-US handshake and the central bank's bond purchases are closely intertwined [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses two types of market breakouts: one driven by rumors leading to a subtle rise, and the other driven by news resulting in a clear rise, with caution advised for the latter due to potential short-term pullbacks [1] - The current financial environment shows a balanced and slightly loose liquidity, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 214.9 billion yuan, while 215.5 billion yuan of reverse repos are maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 0.6 billion yuan [1] - The interbank funding market shows a slight decline in long-term bond yields, with the DR001 rate around 1.41% and DR007 at approximately 1.55% [1] Group 2 - The bond market sentiment is positive, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.675% and slightly decreasing to around 1.6715% before fluctuating again due to market reactions to news from Trump regarding trade agreements [3] - The stock market experienced a slight increase, while the bond market remains cautious, with the 10-year bond yield showing minor fluctuations influenced by external news [3] - A significant trading activity in the 30-year government bond futures was noted, driven by a large order that sparked buying interest, indicating a responsive market to external news [3]

水是沿着最小阻力线流动的，市场波动也是一样，因为人性是趋利避害的。想像下，当河流遇到阻挡 时，就会聚集成小湖，看似平静的水面，实则是在聚集能量，重新选择方向。当市场选择一个位置突破 时，正是河流的最小阻力方向。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250603— 利率债，"半新不旧"经济的代表（-外媒称中美领导人本周将通话-股市上涨+5月财新 制造业PMI低于预期+资金面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展4545亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有8300亿元逆回购到期，净回笼3755亿元。 月初资金面均衡偏松，资金利率回落，DR001在1.41%附近，DR007在1.55%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 06. 03) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of false breakouts in trading, suggesting that recognizing these can lead to more confident counter-trading actions [1] - It highlights the current macroeconomic environment, indicating a balanced and slightly loose funding situation with a small decline in long-term bond yields [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 291.1 billion yuan, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan after 142.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. appellate court temporarily reinstated Trump tariffs, contributing to a weak stock market and a slight decline in bond market rates [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower and fluctuated, with the lowest rate reaching 1.667% before closing at 1.675% [3][4] - Market participants were closely monitoring the central bank's announcements regarding bond purchases, although no such operations were conducted, leading to a slight rebound in rates [3][4]

市场的一轮又一轮涨跌，就是由一个又一个"预期"推动，通俗地说就是"传言"。大预期推动趋势性行 情，小预期推动交易性行情。 ——笔记哥《应对》 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.41%附近，DR007在1.62%附近。 【笔记20250529— 枉我天天放水，尔等为何砸债？（-美国法院叫停特朗普关税-股市偏强+基金赎回缓 和+资金面均衡偏松=微上)】 美国法院叫停特朗普关税，股市偏强，资金偏松，基金赎回缓和，利率先上后下。 早间消息：美国国际贸易法院阻止特朗普关税生效，带动海外风险资产普涨。早盘债市情绪偏谨慎， 10Y国债利率（250011）小幅高开在1.6875%后上行。股市表现偏强，"股债跷跷板"带动利率最高上至 1.698%。资金偏松，尾盘数据显示基金赎回缓和，利率回落至1.6875%。 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率微幅上行。 央行公开市场开展2660亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1545亿元逆回购到期，净投放1115亿元。 【今日盘面】 250011 1.6875/1.6980/1.6850/1.6875 +0.50 250210 1.7200/1.7450/1.7175/1.7225 +0.9 ...

"黑天鹅"是用来砸坑的，不是用来逆转市场的。它只是在大势下，让原有的趋势加速了，加速后，自然 要回调休整，之后，再次聚集能量沿着原来的大趋势，继续向前进。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250528— 债市卷到了会计领域（-基金赎回继续增加-存单利率仍偏高+资金面均衡偏松=微 上)】 今天看到：2025年中国高考报名人数为1335万人，较去年减少7万人，是自2017年以来首次下降。掐指 一算（将出生人口往后推十八年），10年后这数据会断崖式下跌，届时"毕业当骑士"终于可以变成"报 名即学士"啦。 -------------------------- 【今日盘面】 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 05. 28) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 廣高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1 ...

当我们感悟到异常，发现预期差时，阻碍我们去行动的最大障碍就是"希望交易"，尤其是，当市场已经 开始出现相应的波动后，"回头看"会让我们后悔没有在最佳的位置买入或卖出，于是就希望市场回到之 前的位置再执行。 今天看到一组餐饮业消费降级的数据：2022-2025年，内地40个城市的千元餐厅数量下降了42%。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250527— 有钱人不消费了，商务宴请拼夕夕化了（-市场关注存单发行与基金赎回压力+资金 面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展4480亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3570亿元逆回购到期，净投放910亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率回落，DR001下至1.45%附近，DR007在1.62%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.05.27) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30 ...

周末特朗普关税威胁再起，今日资金面偏松，股债震荡。 早盘债市情绪偏积极，10Y国债利率微幅低开在1.6875%后最低下至1.682%附近。股市震荡，利率亦在 1.685%附近震荡。尾盘路透消息：总理表示还在研究储备新政策工具包括超常规措施，利率小幅回升 至1.69%附近。 为什么历经风雨也不一定做好？因为老手总是回头看过去，总是拿着过去的经验与现在做对比，却忘了 金融市场唯一不变的就是变。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250526— 一年定存 30年降10%（+周末特朗普关税威胁再起+资金面均衡偏松=涨跌互现)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展3820亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1350亿元逆回购到期，净投放2470亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金价格平稳，DR001在1.51%附近，DR007在1.65%附近。 今天看到一组"反直觉"的数据： 1、定存利率不断下降：以一年期定存利率为例，自1996年以来，从10.98%降至0.95%； | | 年期定存利率回忆录 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 年度 | 利率 | 万元利息 | | 1996 | 10.98% | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of market rumors and the behavior of investors in response to these rumors, emphasizing the importance of following market trends regardless of the truth behind the rumors [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,425 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 1,065 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 360 billion yuan [2]. - The interbank funding market showed a slight increase in funding prices, with DR001 around 1.57% and DR007 around 1.59% [2]. - The morning saw a tightening of the funding environment, while the afternoon experienced a loosening, leading to mixed movements in the bond market [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The issuance scale of government bonds was relatively high today, with the 10-year government bond rate opening slightly higher at 1.6875% before fluctuating downwards [4]. - The 10-year government bond rate reached around 1.7% during the day, influenced by tax payments and market sentiment [4]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield has surged by 85 basis points to 2.96% since early April, raising concerns about potential impacts on the domestic bond market [4]. Group 3: Revenue Comparisons - From January to April, the national non-tax revenue reached 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, marking a historical high for the same period [4]. - In contrast, local land transfer revenue was 934 billion yuan, which is half of the historical high in 2021 (2,138.3 billion yuan), representing the lowest level since 2015 for the same period [4].