无论买入还是卖出，我们的内心最忐忑不安的时候，是刚刚操作之时，想立马让市场证明我们的这次操作是对的，所以会很紧张地盯着每天的盘面波动。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20251112— 存储龙头：农业银行（+股市微幅下跌+资金面转为均衡=微下)】 资金面均衡，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展1955亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有655亿元逆回购到期，净投放1300亿元。 早盘债市情绪平稳，10Y国债利率微幅低开在1.801%后震荡。股市震荡微跌、险守4000点，资金面均衡中改善，消息面平静，10Y国债利率在1.80%附近 窄幅震荡。 -------------------------- 最近债市走得很安详：10Y国债近5日收在1.801%、1.806%、1.805%、1.804%、1.800%。证监会副主席称：坚决防止市场大起大落、急涨急跌。于是股市 今天收在4000.14：离开4000点要死啊！ 今日农业银行怒张3.5%，再创新高，市值突破3万亿，被尊称为存储板块（存钱的存，储蓄的储）兼大A总龙头。据说还有一个硬核逻辑：过大A 4000点 收费站得用ETC，ETC得绑银行卡，没毛病！ 【今日盘面】 2500 ...

新手最崇拜的是那些偶尔预测对一两次市场拐点的人，那些侃侃而谈花拳绣腿的人。但是，真正的高手，常常挂在嘴边的一个回答是"不知道"，但这会被 90% 的人嗤之以鼻。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20251111— 债市靠"作文"电击（+股市小幅下跌-传3个月以上仍有赎回费+资金面收敛转松=涨跌互现)】 资金面收敛转松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展4038亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1175亿元逆回购到期，净投放2863亿元。 资金面收敛转松，资金利率平稳，DR001与DR007均在1.51%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 11) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 面向利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | (12 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.54 | | | 1.95 | 273 | 64527. ...

周日公布的10月通胀数据略高于预期，早间消息称美国政府停摆接近结束。早盘债市情绪略偏谨慎，10Y国债利率小幅高开在1.81%后震荡。上午股市微 幅收跌，利率小幅回落至1.804%。午后股市小幅上涨，利率在1.805%附近震荡。 越回头，越害怕。顶点是用来参照的，不是用来下单的。当市场上涨时，一回头，就觉得涨的太多了，高处不甚寒，不敢下手，总是担心市场会随时掉下 去。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20251110— 债市已成"路人甲"？（-10月通胀数据略高于预期-股市小幅上涨+资金面收敛转松=微下)】 资金面收敛转松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展1199亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有783亿元逆回购到期，净投放416亿元。 资金面收敛转松，资金利率上行，DR001在1.48%附近，DR007在1.50%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 10) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | (12 变化 ...

央行公开市场开展1417亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3551亿元逆回购到期，净回笼2134亿元。 资金面边际收敛，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.33%附近，DR007在1.41%附近。 不要凭历史数据，甚至"感觉"去简单地拍点位，而是要建立自己的投资体系，用分析框架体系在左侧分析市场，用投资策略体系在右侧应对市场。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20251107— 4000点的空气（-传赎回新规周末发文+进出口数据偏弱-资金面边际收敛=微上)】 资金面边际收敛，长债收益率微幅上行。 -------------------------- | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 07) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.39 | | | 1. 75 ...

"一鼓作气，再而衰，三而竭。"打战如此，做投资也是如此，因为背后的人性是相通的，投资中也是人与人之间的搏斗。所以，不要自作聪明地以为，同 样的行情出现两次后，自己就掌握了规律，看到了机会，就期待行情出现第三次，进而从中获利。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20251106— 特朗普完胜大空头（-股市单边上行-传赎回新规即将落地+资金面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展928亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3426亿元逆回购到期，净回笼2498亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.32%附近，DR007在1.43%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 06) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率支 | 成尚利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | (12 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | | 比 ( ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that not all information impacts the market; only information that creates a difference in expectations can lead to significant price fluctuations [1]. Market Overview - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with long-term bond yields experiencing a slight increase. The central bank conducted a 655 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 5,577 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,922 billion yuan [3]. - The overnight overseas risk assets experienced a broad decline, leading to a lower opening for the stock market, which later rebounded. The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower at 1.787% and fluctuated down to around 1.78% [5]. - The stock market showed resilience, with a notable "green" performance amidst a backdrop of declining overseas markets, indicating a strong domestic market [6][8]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market reacted to the fluctuations in the stock market, with yields initially declining before rising again. The sentiment in the bond market was influenced by the performance of the stock market, which was described as a "see-saw" effect [5][8]. - The weighted rates for various repo codes remained stable, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.46%, indicating a steady funding rate environment [4]. Investor Sentiment - There is a mixed sentiment among investors regarding monetary policy, with bulls expecting a decrease in reverse repo rates while bears anticipate regulatory changes affecting redemption periods [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the central bank regarding bond purchases and their impact on the market, highlighting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid fluctuating market conditions [3][5][6]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank conducted a 200 billion yuan bond purchase in October, which was lower than market expectations, leading to a slight increase in interest rates before stabilizing [5][6]. - A total of 1175 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos was executed, with a net withdrawal of 3578 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4753 billion yuan in reverse repos [3]. - The central bank plans to conduct a 7000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a 3-month term, indicating a strategy to manage liquidity in the market [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The stock market experienced a slight decline, attributed to the lower-than-expected bond purchase by the central bank, which caused temporary fluctuations in interest rates [5][6]. - Global stock markets showed poor performance, influenced by concerns over potential AI bubble bursts and other macroeconomic factors, while the domestic banking sector remained relatively stable [6]. - The bond market reacted to the central bank's actions, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.79% following the announcement of the bond purchase [5][6]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted average rates for various repo transactions remained stable, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.46%, indicating a balanced liquidity environment [4]. - The interest rates for government bonds showed slight variations, with the 10-year bond yield at 1.7900% and other maturities reflecting minor changes [8]. - The overall trend in interest rates suggests a cautious approach by the central bank to maintain stability in the financial system while addressing liquidity needs [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of positioning oneself as a skilled technician in the market to achieve stable returns, highlighting the need to leverage one's expertise to earn appropriate profits [1]. Market Overview - The stock market experienced a slight rebound, while the bond market awaits the central bank's announcement regarding the October bond purchase scale. Interest rates have slightly declined [5][6]. - The central bank conducted a 783 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 3,373 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,590 billion yuan [3]. Interest Rate Trends - The interbank funding rates showed a downward trend, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 around 1.42% [3]. - The weighted rates for various repos are as follows: R001 at 1.36% (down 4 basis points), R007 at 1.46% (down 3 basis points), and R014 at 1.49% (down 3 basis points) [4]. Stock Market Insights - Since August, AI concept stocks in the US have risen by 16%, while consumer cyclical stocks have decreased by 5.5%. In China, AI and robotics stocks have doubled this year, while financial and consumer stocks have increased by 4% [6]. - The article notes a temporary truce in the US-China trade war, with both sides making concessions to continue business and generate profits [6]. Bond Market Behavior - The bond market displayed a pattern of buying in the morning and selling at the close, as investors anticipated support from the central bank, which did not materialize [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that market volatility is primarily driven by marginal changes in policy intentions rather than personal feelings, highlighting the importance of understanding policy direction in the bond market [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 49, significantly below expectations (49.6) and the previous value (49.8), indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [6]. - The stock market experienced fluctuations, while the bond market showed a positive sentiment early in the day, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.802% and dropping to around 1.792% [6]. - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 355.1 billion yuan for 7 days, with a net injection of 187.1 billion yuan after 168 billion yuan matured [4]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The interbank funding rates showed a slight decline, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at approximately 1.46% [4]. - The weighted rates for various repo codes indicated a mixed trend, with R001 at 1.41% (up 4 basis points) and R007 at 1.49% (down 6 basis points) [5]. - The current interest rate corridor is noted to be between 1.2% and 1.9%, suggesting a potential narrowing of the corridor width, which may imply a reduction in the adjustment range for rates [7]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The article mentions a significant decline in profits for major liquor companies, with the top five brands experiencing nearly a 20% drop, reflecting broader economic challenges [7]. - The sentiment in the liquor industry is contrasted with the bond market, suggesting that while the liquor sector faces difficulties, the bond market may continue to perform steadily [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market reaction to the recent U.S.-China summit, highlighting that the outcomes did not exceed expectations, leading to a decline in the stock market and a slight decrease in interest rates [5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The stock market experienced a decline following the U.S.-China summit, which lasted less than expected, leading to a "stocks down, bonds up" scenario [5]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, with indications that it may be the last cut for the year [5]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated between 1.806% and 1.8175% before settling lower after the summit results were announced [5]. Group 2: Financial Data - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 342.6 billion yuan, with a net injection of 130.1 billion yuan after 212.5 billion yuan matured [3]. - The overnight money market rates showed a decline, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 at approximately 1.50% [3]. - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued housing loans in Q3 2025 was reported at 3.07%, translating to an effective yield of about 1.5% after accounting for taxes and risk capital [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted rates for various repurchase agreements showed slight changes, with R001 at 1.37% (up 6 basis points) and R007 at 1.56% (down 3 basis points) [4]. - The yield on 10-year government bonds was reported at 1.8025%, reflecting a decrease of 1.05 basis points [5]. - The interest rates for different maturities of government bonds showed a range of yields, with the 1-year bond at 1.38% and the 10-year bond at 1.8025% [8].