Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of predicting market movements and the emotional responses of investors to their predictions, highlighting the complexities of market dynamics and the impact of central bank actions on bond and stock markets [1]. Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a slight increase in intermediary fees, comparable to the impact of a stamp duty on the stock market when it falls below 3000 points [3]. - The central bank conducted a net purchase of government bonds amounting to 50 billion yuan in November, while the stock market saw a slight decline [5]. - The liquidity in the market remains balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 156.3 billion yuan, offset by 302.1 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan [3][5]. Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The yield on 10-year government bonds opened at 1.828% and fluctuated throughout the day, reaching a peak of 1.836% before slightly retreating after the central bank's announcement [5]. - The weighted average rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.36%, R007 at 1.49%, and R014 at 1.51%, indicating slight changes in the rates over the past month [4]. Investor Sentiment - Investors in the bond market expressed mixed feelings regarding the central bank's bond purchase announcement, with initial expectations of a larger purchase leading to a sense of relief when the actual figure was revealed [5]. - There is a growing concern among bond investors about the potential increase in intermediary fees for trading government bonds, which could further strain their profitability given the current low interest rates [5].

用左侧的理性战胜右侧的感性，不是用左侧的理性去逆大势、去猜顶、去抄底，而是在顺大势的前提下，用左侧的理性战胜市场反复时的摇摆。 央行公开市场开展1076亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3387亿元逆回购到期，净回笼2311亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.31%附近，DR007在1.46%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 01 ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 (亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.37 | -5 | 5 | 1.80 | 0 | 68611. 21 | 16215. 30 | 89.92 | | R007 | 1.49 | -3 | ar | 1.80 | 0 | 6802. 98 | 2032. 19 | 8.92 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting a slight decline in long-term bond yields and the impact of recent monetary policy actions on market sentiment [3][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 3,013 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 3,750 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan [3]. - The money market is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.30% and DR007 at approximately 1.47% [3]. - The stock market experienced a slight increase, influenced by the announcement of a reduction in the interest rates for three-year large-denomination certificates of deposit by major banks [5]. Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.845% and fluctuated slightly, closing at 1.829% after a day of trading [5]. - The article notes that the 10-year government bond yield increased by less than 2 basis points over the week, indicating a stronger performance in cash bonds compared to futures [6]. - Major banks have reportedly suspended the sale of five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit, with three-year rates dropping to between 1.5% and 1.75% [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Movements - The weighted average rates for various repurchase agreements showed a slight increase, with RO1 at 1.43% (up 51 basis points) and R007 at 1.52% (unchanged) [4]. - The article provides a detailed table of interest rates for different maturities, indicating a general downward trend in yields for government bonds [10].

"预期差"才是做多做空的依据，没有预期差就没有落差、没有波动。 ——笔记哥《应对》 -------------------------- 彭博消息：万科尝试获得贷款，但已被两家中资银行回绝。 想当年银行求着给万科贷款，现如今银行已把万科抛弃。如今做信评的债农们大多已转去利率债市场搬砖（现在这块砖也快搬不动了），但看到万科公开 债券展期还是很感慨： 当"优等生"都开始"挂科"，那说明是地产这个"学校"的问题，真不只是个别同学偷懒了。 【笔记20251127— 万科也挂科，学生问题还是学校问题？（-股市小幅上涨-基金赎回担忧+资金面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展3564亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3000亿元逆回购到期，净投放564亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.31%附近，DR007在1.45%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 27) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | ...

事不过三：第一次是市场形成阶段，第二次是市场学习阶段，第三次是市场复制阶段。 ——笔记哥《应对》 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 26) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代吗 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1. 37 | -2 | 7 /// | 1.70 | - 11-29 | 63878.94 | -954. 09 | 86. 02 | | R007 | 1.52 | 0 | | 2.00 | 28 | 9690. 10 | 128.89 | 13.05 | | R014 | 1.53 | 0 | | 1.95 | 15 | 627.98 | -169.21 | 0. 85 | | R1H | 1.61 | 1 | n | 4.00 | 0 | 7.49 | -6.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions influenced by monetary policy, U.S.-China relations, and bond market performance, highlighting a cautious yet slightly optimistic sentiment in the financial markets. Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting 3,021 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 10,000 billion yuan in MLF operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 54 billion yuan today [3][5]. - The overnight funding rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at approximately 1.45% [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly higher at 1.815% and reached 1.817% during the day, reflecting cautious sentiment in the bond market [5]. - The trading volume for the 10-year government bonds has been low, with only a few hundred transactions, indicating a lack of market activity as the year-end approaches [6]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The interest rates for various maturities have shown slight increases, with the 1-year rate at 1.4040% and the 10-year rate at 1.8195%, indicating a general upward trend in yields [8]. - The market is reacting to the anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has further influenced risk appetite [5].

【笔记20251124— 债农日渐神经衰弱（-股市微涨+央行增量续作MLF+资金面均衡偏松=涨跌互现)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展3387亿元7天期逆回购操作与2000亿元国库现金定存招投标，今日有2830亿元逆回购到期，合计净投放2557元。此外，央行将于明日以 固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。本月MLF到期9000亿元。 不要去纠结于日内行情的波动，或者一两天行情的波动， 时间空间越小，市场的随机性越强，混沌状态越大，参考意义越小 。 ——笔记哥《交易》 今天看到一个魔幻现实：马斯克曾领导的政府效率部提前8个月解散。这证明：你能用第一性原理把火箭送上天，但无法用同样的方法运行政府。在政治 的舞台上，最高效的部门，往往也是最早领盒饭的那个。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.32%附近，DR007在1.47%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 ...

"不言顶，不测底"。无数次的教训告诉自己，不要去肆意猜测点位，更不是去猜测顶部或底部，因为一旦这么做了，那就在自己的心中设了一篱笆，到不 了那个位置就总觉得不可能，这样会很危险。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20251121— "呼吸不到4000点以下空气"的那位首席出来走两步（-美联储降息预期降温+股市单边下跌+资金面均衡偏松=微上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率微幅上行。 央行公开市场开展3750亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2128亿元逆回购到期，净投放1622元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率延续回落，DR001在1.32%附近，DR007在1.44%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 21) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率支努 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | ( 42 | 成义文艺占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | | 比 (% ...

真突破力量强，假突破会横盘。 如果是真反转，市场逆势突破区块（横盘震荡）后，在突破后的力量会非常的强，不会在突破后还继续横盘。这就是逆势突破后横盘，即未被证明正确， 这个反转可能是假反转，市场大概率还会延续原有趋势。 【笔记20251120— 债券投资经理：不交易就失业（-彭博称中国考虑房贷贴息等地产刺激计划+股市小幅下跌+资金面均衡偏松=微上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率微幅上行。 央行公开市场开展3000亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1900亿元逆回购与1200亿元国库现金定存到期，合计净回笼100亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率延续回落，DR001在1.37%附近，DR007在1.49%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 20) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化童 | (亿 | 成义安占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investors should not fear buying at low yields, but rather be cautious when significant positive news leads to a surge in both volume and price [1]. Market Overview - The 10-year government bond yield is stabilizing around 1.80%, with slight fluctuations observed [3][5]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 310.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 115 billion yuan after 195.5 billion yuan matured [3]. - The market is transitioning to a balanced liquidity state as the tax period ends, leading to a decline in funding rates, with DR001 around 1.42% and DR007 around 1.51% [3][5]. Bond Market Performance - The bond market shows a slight increase in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.805% and fluctuating to 1.807% [5][6]. - The sentiment in the bond market remains stable despite overnight declines in overseas risk assets [5]. Interest Rate Trends - The weighted rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.49% (down 9 basis points), R007 at 1.52% (down 1 basis point), and R014 at 1.56% (down 1 basis point) [4]. - The overall trend indicates a slight decrease in interest rates across the board, reflecting a more favorable funding environment [4].