Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial market dynamics influenced by geopolitical events, particularly the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and the implications for stock and bond markets. It highlights the importance of waiting for system signals rather than acting on uncertainty. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has led to a significant drop in oil prices and an increase in stock index futures [3] - The bond market showed stability in response to the ceasefire news, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.64% and fluctuating slightly [3] - The central bank conducted a small incremental operation of MLF, leading to a slight decrease in bond yields [3] Group 2: Financial Indicators - The central bank's open market operations included a 406.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan after 197.3 billion yuan matured [1] - The overnight funding rate remained stable at around 1.37%, while the 7-day funding rate increased by 16 basis points to approximately 1.67% [1] - The weighted rates for various repo codes showed slight changes, with R001 at 1.44% and R007 at 1.82%, indicating a mixed sentiment in the interbank funding market [2]

资金代表债券的需求，钱多自然需求大，钱少自然需求少 。但它也有静态和动态之分，静态的资金面 是当时的资金松紧程度，而动态的资金面是资金面的松紧预期。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250623— 50年国债卷起来（+周末中东局势升级-股市低开高走-资金面略微收敛=微上)】 资金面略微收敛，长债收益率微幅上行。 -------------------------- 今日媒体报道称："机构卷收益，20年、50年国债被挖出，收益率近一周双双下行5BP。" 看一下6月份 数据更离谱：50Y国债收率下行12BP，而30Y和10Y仅下行6BP和3.5BP，算上久期差异更是"一骑绝 尘"，债农：跪求发行100Y国债！ 今天看到一个数据：2024年，按平均数计算，中国人均财富同比增长约5%，按中位数计算，人均财富 同比下降6.3%。中产的没落？今天的瓜很应景：传国有银行总行突现"358限薪令"，普通员工、部门负 责人和总行领导喜提天花板30、50、80W。 【今日盘面】 250011 1.6360/1.6400/1.6320/1.6400 +0.20 央行公开市场开展2205亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2420亿元逆回购和1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting a balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with a focus on the recent movements in interest rates and the implications for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 161.2 billion, with 202.5 billion maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 41.3 billion [1]. - The funding rates have decreased, with DR001 stabilizing around 1.37% and DR007 dropping to approximately 1.49% [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.6405% and fluctuated, reaching a low of 1.6365% before slightly recovering to 1.638% [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The June LPR remained unchanged, aligning with expectations, while the June EPMI showed weakness at 47.9, a decrease of 3.1 from the previous month [2][3]. - The bond market sentiment was stable, with a notable shift in trading behavior as investors moved away from active 10-year bonds to older bonds and longer maturities [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - There has been a recent "battle of narratives" between bulls and bears in the market, with bulls gaining an upper hand due to rumors of the central bank's bond purchases at the end of the month [4]. - The trading volume for the 10-year government bond was low, with less than 600 transactions throughout the day, indicating a shift in investor focus [3].

对于官方的一些政策吹风，往往是承上启下的，所以，在观察时，更多是要看其边际上的变化，而不是 抓住那些老生常谈的信息不放。 听其言，观其行。听其言，就是听官方讲话的边际变化，观其行，就 是要看资金面上的边际变化。"言""行"相符，就能证明政策大概率已经变化了。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250619— 债市靠传言互卷（-传某省限制债券投资-传某大行限制资金融出+股市下跌-资金面略 有收敛=涨跌互现)】 资金面略有收敛，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展2035亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1193亿元逆回购到期，净投放842亿元。 资金面略有收敛，资金利率微幅上行，DR001在1.37%附近，DR007在 1.54%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 06. 19) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 (亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for strict execution of stop-loss measures in trading to prevent emotional decision-making and increased losses [1] - The financial market is currently experiencing a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment, with the central bank conducting a 156.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.7 billion yuan [1] - The interbank funding rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.53% [1] Group 2 - The overnight market sentiment was affected by escalating concerns over Middle East conflicts, leading to a slight increase in the 10-year government bond yield, which opened at 1.634% and rose to 1.6365% [3] - The "restart of government bond trading" expectation was not realized, causing a slight upward movement in bond market rates [3][4] - The article critiques the excessive implementation of regulations against wasteful spending, highlighting that some local governments misinterpret policies, leading to negative impacts on businesses and livelihoods [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategy of "buying rumors and selling news," suggesting that investors should trust their expectations when they arise and act accordingly, while being skeptical when actual news is released [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The current funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with long-term bond yields experiencing a slight decline [2]. - The central bank conducted a 197.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a total of 183.3 billion yuan net withdrawal due to maturing reverse repos and MLF [2]. - The overnight funding rates are slightly down, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.52% [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed cautious sentiment in the morning, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.64% and peaking at 1.6475% before fluctuating down to around 1.634% [4]. - The market is influenced by rumors of the resumption of government bond trading and the inclusion of short-term government bonds in reserve requirements [4]. - The bond futures market has shown signs of recovery after a period of stagnation, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 3: Price Movements - The second-hand housing prices have returned to levels seen in early 2017, indicating a significant market adjustment [5]. - The price of a bottle of 25-year Flying Moutai has dropped to 1960 yuan, marking the first time it has fallen below the 2000 yuan psychological barrier since 2021 [5].

除了入场与出场时的理由要相互一致外，入场时，对于时间的要求，也要以始为终。入场时，只是想做 个短线，那出场时，就不能拖太久，不要短线做成长线，长线做成股东。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250613— 世界最近太乱了（+中东局势升级+股市下跌-上午资金面收敛+金融数据偏弱+央行 4000亿买断式逆回购=微下)】 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.06.13) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 (亿 | 变化量 | 成义童占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.46 | | VV | 1.74 | -30 | 70663. 67 | -2608. 13 | 89. 89 | | R007 | 1.58 | 10 | | 2.05 | 0 | 7431. 20 | -1142.96 | 9.45 | | R014 ...

【笔记20250611— 债市开启"单曲循环"模式（+中美会谈未超预期+彭博称央行买断式逆回购询量-股市 偏强+资金面均衡宽松=小下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展1640亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2149亿元逆回购到期，净回笼509亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.37%附近，DR007在1.53%附近。 窄幅震荡 = 能量聚集。窄幅震荡是合围战、歼灭战。 双方集中优势兵力，缩小阵地范围，在此一决雌 雄，双方对峙时间越长，窄幅震荡突破后，力度就会越强，延续性也会更长。 ——笔记哥《交易》 股民：昨天小作文说谈崩了，这不就证伪了嘛，利好！ 债农："原则上"、"框架性"表明很多细节尚未敲定，进展不能说"有限"，只能说"没有"，利好！ 【今日盘面】 250011 1.6575/1.6575/1.6400/1.6430 -1.45 250210 1.7050/1.7050/1.6950/1.6990 -0.55 2500002 1.8700/1.8700/1.8490/1.8510 -1.80 中美会谈未超预期，股市偏强，彭博称央行询量六个月期买断式逆回购，利率震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of probability thinking in investment, suggesting that investors should prepare for potential losses before entering a position [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 198.6 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 454.5 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan [1]. - The funding environment remains balanced and loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.36% and DR007 at approximately 1.51% [1]. - The bond market showed mixed movements, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.655% and fluctuating throughout the day [3]. Group 2: Economic Events - The China-US economic and trade talks have moved from Geneva to London, focusing on rare earths and export controls [3]. - The stock market experienced a sharp decline in the afternoon, attributed to ongoing trade negotiations and a loose funding environment [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - There are two prevailing sentiments among bond investors: the "lying flat" camp, which believes in buying due to low rates and weak data, and the "speculative" camp, which anticipates surprises from negotiations and prefers to sell [4]. - The afternoon stock market drop was humorously linked to the airing of a specific film on CCTV-6, suggesting a superstitious interpretation of market movements [5].

回踩入场，最怕的就是真反转；突破入场，最怕的就是假突破。 在顺大势下，这些担心的"真反 转"和"假突破"，都已经变为小概率事件。我们不能为小概率事件缩手缩脚，而要为大概率系统严格执 行。 | | | | 银行间资金 | | (2025.06.09) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 量高利率 | 变化 | 成义中 (亿 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.42 | 8 | 11/2 | 2. 00 | 115 | 67710. 16 | 213. 67 | 91.51 | | R007 | 1.54 | -1 | Non/ 1 | 2. 05 | 0 | 5248. 91 | -894. 45 | 7.09 | | R014 | 1.59 | -1 | 1 /VI | 2. 00 | 218 | 759. 37 | 115. 90 ...