在掌握一门或几门技术招式后，就知道了自己的能力边界，就会耐心地在市场中"等活儿"。什么时候市 场出现了自己懂的行情，什么时候再去接这个活儿、赚这份钱，不出现就不出手。 今日长债偏弱但30Y国债利率微幅下行，债农：30Y国债（230023）票息高达3%，这才是真正的票息资 产。 【笔记20250522— 美债日债飙升，中债继续独行（-明日一级发行规模较高+央行大额续作MLF+税期资 金面均衡=涨跌互现)】 资金面均衡，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展1545亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有645亿元逆回购到期，净投放900亿元。为保持银 行体系流动性充裕，2025年5月23日（周五），中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标 方式开展5000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 资金面均衡，资金价格延续回落，DR001在1.48%附近，DR007在1.57%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 05. 22) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics, highlighting the impact of interest rate adjustments on both the stock and bond markets, as well as shifts in consumer spending behavior and preferences in entertainment activities. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The trading volume indicates significant divergence in market sentiment, with low volumes suggesting indecision and high volumes indicating consensus on price levels, leading to energy accumulation and release cycles [1] - The central bank conducted a 3.57 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 1.77 billion yuan, contributing to a balanced and slightly loose funding environment [1][2] - The recent adjustments in deposit rates and LPR (Loan Prime Rate) led to a slight increase in stock prices and a modest rise in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield moving to approximately 1.666% [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - In 2024, the average per capita consumption in the national catering sector decreased to 39.8 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, with the proportion of consumers increasing spending dropping from 50.0% in 2023 to 31.3% [4] - The contribution of the 20-39 age group to consumption growth has fallen from 30.3% to 19.1% since 2018, reflecting a shift in entertainment preferences towards more contemplative activities like park visits and City Walks [6] - A significant decline in traditional entertainment activities is noted, with KTV and bars experiencing a drop of 87% and 65% respectively, while activities like park visits and City Walks have seen substantial increases of 226% and 218% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market fluctuations and the tendency of investors to engage in "revenge trading" after experiencing losses or missed opportunities, indicating a psychological response to market volatility [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,065 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 770 billion yuan reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 295 billion yuan [2]. - The interbank funding market showed a tightening trend in the morning, with the funding rates significantly rising; DR001 and DR007 increased by 22 basis points and 11 basis points, respectively, reaching around 1.63% [2]. - The bond market sentiment was cautious, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.67% and peaking at 1.685%, reflecting a weak issuance sentiment for 20-year bonds [4]. Group 2: Trading Dynamics - The trading volume in the repo market showed a decline, with R001 at 59,107.07 million yuan, down by 6,446.34 million yuan, and R007 at 7,625.09 million yuan, up by 687.90 million yuan [3]. - The overall market saw a slight decline in stock prices, with the sentiment in the bond market remaining cautious and the funding rates fluctuating throughout the day [4]. - The article notes that each "rate cut" tends to create a feeling of "rate hike," indicating a cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy changes [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the costs associated with doing business and investing, emphasizing that every transaction has an acceptable maximum loss rather than just the principal investment [1] - The central bank conducted a 645 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a total net withdrawal of 2,191 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos and MLF [1][2] - The interbank funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.41% and DR007 around 1.52% throughout the day [1] Group 2 - The overnight risk assets saw a slight increase, while the bond market remained stable with the 10-year government bond yield hovering around 1.67% [3] - The central bank has been net withdrawing funds for three consecutive days, and the recent reserve requirement ratio cut has led to a weak performance in the stock market [3] - The article notes that the recent performance of the 2-year treasury futures has been weak, attributed to market uncertainty regarding the sustainability of monetary easing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a personal investment system to navigate market emotions effectively and maintain a strategic focus without being swayed by market fluctuations. Group 1: Market Conditions - The financial market is currently characterized by a balanced and loose liquidity environment, with the central bank conducting a 920 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,035 billion yuan due to 1,955 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1]. - The stock market is showing strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,400 points, while the 10-year government bond yield has seen slight fluctuations, peaking at 1.675% before settling at 1.669% [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The overnight U.S. April CPI data came in below expectations, contributing to a positive sentiment in overseas risk assets [3]. - The latest data from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security indicates that the unemployment insurance fund expenditure reached 46.5 billion yuan in the first quarter, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 22%, approaching the peak levels seen during the pandemic in 2020-2021 [3]. Group 3: Shipping Industry Insights - Recent reports indicate a "container explosion" in U.S. maritime shipping, primarily attributed to the clearance of previously accumulated cargo rather than an increase in trade volume with the U.S. [3]. - The article notes that the impact of tariffs may become more pronounced after June, and uncertainties remain regarding potential changes in trade policies, particularly with the unpredictability of political figures [3].

横盘震荡，是多空双方都在蓄势，双方力量整体达到了一定的均衡，只是方向并不确定。所以，要想打 破这种均衡一定需要更大的力量，往往市场需要一点催化剂才能突破，就像打战攻城前的战时动员令一 样。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250512— 关税相互妥协，市场预期偏弱 （+股市高开低走+资金面均衡宽松=中下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展1800亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有4050亿元逆回购到期，净回笼2250亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格维持低位，DR001在1.4%附近，DR007在1.5%附近。 今日债市情绪缓和，主要源于三大助力：一是资金宽松、钱多就是硬道理；二是股市"习惯性"高开低 走；三是无论怎么计算，相比4月2日之前还是多了10%的关税，且关税145%时，向下概率远高于向 上，而30%时，反复的概率也可能不低？ | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 05. 13) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | ...

【笔记20250512— 中美会谈超预期，峰回路转靠实力（-中美经贸会谈联合声明超预期-股市偏强+资金 面均衡宽松=大上)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率大幅上行。 央行公开市场开展430亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日无逆回购到期，净投放430亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格进一步回落，DR001下行逾7BP至1.41%，DR007下破1.5%。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.05.12) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 阿购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.46 | | 5 | 2. 00 | -1 70 | 59653. 65 | 2136. 13 | 89. 31 | | R007 | 1.55 | -3 | | 2. 05 | 0 | 6204. 02 | 57. 41 | ...

当你看对，又做对，收益率趋势性下行（价格上涨）时，你是贪婪的，总希望再下些；然而，当市场开 始中途调整时，你可能就更容易被震荡下车，因为你怕到手的利润飞走了。所以，最容易被震下车的， 不是在上涨的过程中，而是在阴跌调整的中场休息时。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250509— 两个战场，胜者为王（-4月进出口数据超预期-中美瑞士会晤避险情绪+股市小幅下跌 +资金面均衡宽松+央行：择机恢复国债买卖操作=微下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展770亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日无逆回购到期，净投放770亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格延续回落，DR001下破1.5%至1.49%，DR007下至1.54%。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 05.09) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交童占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | ( ...

想要完全掌握一种手法，至少需要实盘训练半年以上，才能消化里面的一些细节。总结一招，就要猛练 一招，不然我们根本不会了解到其中的优缺点和适用场景。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250507— 太多的巧合：中美，印巴，双降（-中美将在瑞士会晤-降准降息落地-股市偏强+资金 面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 在"924"的学习效应下，今日债市止盈者众。预期管理了半年了的降准降息今天终于落地，债农天天埋 怨YM怎么还在"择机"。今朝落地，每月都预测一波降息的债农还是不满：一个坏掉的钟，一天也能对 两次。但这次对了，下次不知还要多久哇。 中美大佬瑞士约茶，双方发言堪比言情剧剧本： 中方表示会谈是应美方请求举行的，属"霸道总裁"风：对方主动约的我。 美方表示瑞士谈判是"凑巧"，为"口嫌体正直"风：只是转角遇到爱啦。 今天很多的巧合，中美关税问题要会晤了，巴铁干掉印度6驾战机，国内降准降息落地。这么多的内外 利好在同一天展现，很多时候还是需要亮亮拳头的。 央行公开市场开展1955亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有5308亿元逆回购到期，净回笼3353亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金价格延续回落，DR001 ...

资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率微幅下行。 绝大多数人都觉得自己可以战胜市场，都觉得自己可以预测未来，所以，总会有人在趋势形成之前抢 跑，而不会安静地等待趋势的形成。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250506— 中美关税缓和，资产表现不一（-关税缓和预期升温-股市偏强+财新服务业PMI偏弱 +资金面均衡偏松+明日央行等部门发布会=微下)】 央行公开市场开展4050亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有10870亿元逆回购到期，净回笼6820亿元。 月初资金面均衡偏松，资金价格回落，DR001与DR00均下行超7个bp。 假期关税缓和预期升温，股市走强，财新服务业PMI低于预期，尾盘预告明日央行等部门发布会，债市 利率微幅下行。 五一假期关税缓和预期升温，全球风险资产普涨，早盘债市情绪略偏谨慎，10Y国债利率基本平开在 1.6225%后最高上至1.63%。4月财新服务业PMI为50.7，低于预期的51.8。股市走强、涨超1%，利率在 1.625%附近震荡。尾盘预告明天上午9时央行等部门发布会，市场对货币政策抱有一定期待，利率小幅 下至1.62%。 -------------------------- 今日交易主线似乎是中美贸 ...