美联储如期降息25BP，今日股市表现偏弱，经济会议表述未超预期，利率震荡下行。 | | | 银行间资金 | | (2025. 12. 11) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 黄高利率 | 变化 | 成义文 | 变化文 (亿 | 成义童占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1. 35 | | | 1.81 | | 73738. 31 | 1317.79 | 89.47 | | R007 | 1.50 | | Wh. | 1.90 | 15 | 7638.00 | 385. 19 | 9.27 | | R014 | 1.53 | | | 2. 70 | 10 | 697. 20 | -183.63 | 0. 85 | | R1H | 1.70 | | | 2. 10 | 5 | 302. 94 | -262.74 | 0. 37 | | Age of | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on future market trends rather than historical prices or personal cost bases when making investment decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - CICC's involvement in Vanke's rescue plan has led to mixed market reactions, with optimistic views pushing Vanke's stock to a limit up, while pessimistic views suggest a high probability of market corrections [1]. - The recent political bureau meeting and economic conference did not exceed expectations, and inflation data indicates that the story of "PPI turning positive" remains distant [3]. - The bond market is experiencing a slight decline in long-term bond yields due to a balanced and loose funding environment, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan through reverse repos [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Reactions - November's PPI was slightly below expectations, causing minor market disturbances related to mortgage interest subsidies, while the stock market showed signs of recovery after initial weakness [6]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated, opening at 1.8375% and reaching a high of 1.841% before settling back down [6]. - The CPI for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [9]. Group 3: Sector Performance - Various sectors showed mixed performance, with precious metals and retail sectors gaining, while organic silicon and other sectors faced declines [9]. - Vanke's stock saw significant movement, closing at a limit up, reflecting investor optimism amid ongoing discussions about debt restructuring [10]. - The education sector also experienced notable gains, with companies like Zhonggong Education hitting their upper trading limits [10].

以下文章来源于笔记财经晨会 ，作者笔记哥V 笔记财经晨会 . 本周关注：美联储议息会议，市场预计降息25个基点。 2、权益市场 ①指数：在近期市场中，创业板指在算力硬件等权重板块的带动下延续相对强势。 若后续市场成交量无法持续有效放大，指数在该区域遇阻整理的 概率将随之提升。 因此，对当前整体市场仍宜以区间震荡格局看待。 从盘面来看，本轮反弹 主要围绕算力硬件、商业航天与福建本地股三大方向展开 。其中，算力硬件板块由于涵盖多只人气权重股，对指数走势和市 场风险偏好均具备较强的带动作用；商业航天与福建本地股则更多承载短线题材情绪，对市场活跃度形成补充，上述方向能否延续强势较为关键。 每个交易日早晨发布音频《笔记晨会》及文字《笔记早餐》。 本周金曲：汪小敏-笑看风云 《笔记晨会》 1、宏观固收 ①路透消息称，美国总统特朗普周一表示， 美国政府将允许Nvidia(英伟达) 的H200芯片出口到中国 ，并对每块芯片收取一定费用。 ②昨日债市回暖，30年期国债抛压缓和，10年期国债尾盘翻绿，国开债表现好于国债。 资金面均衡偏松，预期稳定 。 ③关注即将公布的11月通胀数据。 路透预计，我国11月CPI预计同比上行至0. ...

技术上的压力线，有效时，可为我们所用，为我们获利；但有时也无效，成为"陷阱线"，让我们深陷其 中。 ——笔记哥《分析》 【笔记20251209— 餐饮、茅台、万科，降了就是赚了？】 2022年全国人均餐饮消费43.2元，而今年Q3仅为33元，降幅达23.6%。分城市看，人均餐饮消费最高的 是北京（124.3元）。 在北京搬砖的债农眼泪掉下来：干啥啥不行，做个债把债做崩了，吃个饭还给首都拖后腿了！我明明只 有30元的水平。 不过曾经3000多元的茅台现在也已经跌破1499的官方零售价，原来去茅台酒厂调研能拿到1499的茅台感 觉都是福利，现在直播间里1399的茅台就出现了。 外媒消息：万科告诉部分债券持有人，愿意支付利息。这操作有些眼熟啊：有公司不想发年终奖，先放 风声说要大规模裁员，随后在人心惶惶之际宣布裁员危机解除、只是年终奖没了，公司上下顿时洋溢起 感恩的喜悦…… 就在地产龙头万科和白酒龙头茅台纷纷告急或降价之时，中国人民大学张灯结彩地成立了"全球领导力 学院"，旨在培养全球未来领导人和青年领袖。不得不说人大的自信心与前瞻性，引领了国内甚至全球 的所有高校。 ----------------------- ...

我们要有主动长时间空仓的预期和准备，才能在交易中放平心态，冷静地等待市场中符合自己系统的机会。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20251208— 王石应该感谢姚老板（-股市偏强-出口数据表现较好+政治局会议未超预期+资金面均衡偏松=微上】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率微幅上行。 央行公开市场开展1223亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1076亿元逆回购到期，净投放147亿元。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 08) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代吗 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交节占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.37 | 0 | NA | 3.00 | 200 | 69496. 10 | -477.03 | 88.91 | | R007 | 1.49 | 10 | NN. | 1.80 | 12 | 723 ...

本周10Y国债利率与上周基本持平，而30Y国债利率则上行近7BP。 30年国债期货不仅抹平去年"适度宽松货币政策"以来的全部涨幅，甚至还倒亏了不少， 原来"超长债"的真实含义是"超偿债"！ | | 近半年 ▲ | 近一年 | | --- | --- | --- | | 工具製元A | -7.99% | -3.22% | | 富丰和纯债A | -7.84% | -6.34% | | 天来稳健添利A | -7.03% | -6.16% | | 眼瑞夏一年定开债 | -6.75% | -5.23% | | 果兴尊益利率债6个月: | -6.62% | -1.91% | | J裕A | -6.28% | -2.27% | | 上证30年期国债ETF | -6.13% | -1.67% | | 中债-30年期国债ETF | -6.11% | -1.56% | 今天小作文传12月会议重提jzjx，带动债市情绪有所好转。 但债农都在自嘲：怕不是降准降息，而是降职降薪啊！ 如今又是一年12月，站在岁末年初的节点，似乎90%以上的投资人都在预测2026年将是股市大年。 重仓30Y国债的债基近半年亏损超6%，听说有投资经理濒临抑 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the three major pitfalls for trend traders: greed, fear, and prediction. Greed and fear are human weaknesses, while prediction is a behavioral weakness. It argues against predicting the market, as the only certainty in the market is uncertainty [1] Group 2 - The bond market shows a balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with a significant decline in long-term bond yields. The central bank conducted a 139.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 301.3 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 161.5 billion yuan [3][5] - The interbank funding rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.30% and DR007 around 1.44% [3] - The sentiment in the bond market is stable, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.85%, rising to 1.855%, and then falling back to 1.844% after the central bank's actions [5] Group 3 - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: 1Y at 1.4000%, 2Y at 1.4025%, 5Y at 1.6200%, 10Y at 1.8285%, and long-term bonds at 2.2515% [6] - The market shows a mixed performance in terms of bond yields, with some experiencing slight declines while others remain stable [6]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7% to 3902.81, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.08% to 13147.68, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.36% to 3109.30 [1][2] - A total of 4427 stocks closed higher, while 914 stocks closed lower, indicating a positive market sentiment [1][3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.73 trillion, an increase of 176.8 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Performance Metrics - The 20-day performance for the Shanghai Composite Index showed a decline of 2.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index experienced a decrease of 1.91% [2] - The annual performance for the Shanghai Composite Index is up by 16.44%, and the Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 26.24% [2] - The ChiNext Index has seen a significant annual increase of 45.19% [2] Sector Performance - Sectors such as insurance, precious metals, and commercial aerospace showed strong gains, while traditional sectors like Chinese medicine and film exhibition faced declines [2] - The electric aluminum concept stocks experienced volatility, with companies like Hongchuang Holdings and Yun Aluminum reaching historical highs [2] - The robotics sector saw a rebound, with companies like Boke Technology rising over 10% [2] Notable Stock Movements - The stock of Moer Thread opened high with a 468% increase, leading to significant profits for investors [2] - Companies in the Fujian sector, such as Sanmu Group and Haixin Food, reached their daily limit [2] - The AI glasses concept saw a surge, with Doctor's Glasses rising over 10% [2] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is improving, with a board sealing rate close to 80% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 35.5 billion for investment projects, indicating government support for economic growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, focusing on the central bank's actions and their impact on liquidity and interest rates, particularly in the bond market. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank conducted a 1,808 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 3,564 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,756 billion yuan [1] - An announcement was made for a 10,000 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation scheduled for December 5, 2025 [1][3] - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with stable funding rates [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - The 10-year government bond yield opened higher at 1.845% and fluctuated, reaching a peak of 1.861% before settling at 1.8500% [3] - The weighted average rates for various repo codes indicate a slight increase, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.49% [2] - The market reacted to the Financial Times' commentary on "short-term tightening and long-term easing," leading to fluctuations in bond prices and yields [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The article reflects a sense of uncertainty among investors, with questions about the central bank's support for the market, likening it to a daily inquiry from stock and bond investors [3] - The sentiment is further illustrated by the humorous commentary on market expectations, highlighting the disconnect between investor hopes and market realities [3]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a slight decline, influenced by the December meeting and restrictions on fund dividends, leading to fluctuations in interest rates [5] - The central bank conducted a 793 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 2,133 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,340 billion yuan [3] - The interbank funding market shows a balanced and slightly loose condition, with the DR001 around 1.30% and DR007 around 1.44% [3] Group 2 - The yield on long-term bonds is rising, while short-term bonds remain stable, indicating a divergence in market sentiment [6] - The central bank's announcement of a 500 billion yuan bond purchase in November was smaller than expected, contributing to a stable sentiment in the bond market [5] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated slightly, opening at 1.8325% and reaching a high of 1.8425% before settling at 1.8375% [5][9]