未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 2026年汽车行业总投资策略：如何【破旧立新】？ 我们认为2026年汽车或应该参考2011年或2018年（底线思维），汽车行业又重新站到了一个新 的十字路口。电动化行业红利接近尾声，智能化行业红利正在努力衔接，商用车/两轮车等子 板块成为好的投资补充领域。我们选择两条思路：1）寻找穿越周期α品种！2）拥抱下一轮产 业趋势（智能化+机器人/AIDC）。 2026年汽车板块最新景气度预测： 1）乘用车板块： 26年行业受新能源购置税征收5%影响，内需整体预期-3.5%。2026年总内需 销量2200万辆（同比-3.5%）,新能源内需销量1320万辆，同比+6.4%；2026年总外需销量641万 辆（同比+12.0%），新能源外需352万辆（同比+43.9%）。 2）重卡板块： 中性预测下，2026 年批发销量116万辆（同比+1.5%）,其中内需销量77万辆（同比-5.5%），外需销量39-40万辆 （同比+18.8%）。 3）客车板块： 预计26年内外需共振延续，其中出口增速有望维持30%以 上，新能源出口增速预计更快。2026年内需销量8.10万辆，同比+3%，出口7. ...

| 童甜毒 | 2006 | | --- | --- | | 刘力宇 | הערות ה פ | | 孟璐 | | | 郭雨蒙 | Orodo | | 孙仁昊 | | | 赖思旭 | סטרונים | | 童明祺 | Disto | | | | | 投资要点 | | --- | 敏实集团是全球领先的汽车外饰件、车身结构件供应商。 基于多种新材料及表面处理技术，敏实形成了各类外饰件和车身结构件产品体系，并于2020年 整合设立金属饰条、塑件、铝件和电池盒四大产品线BU。目前，公司重点投资布局汽车电动 化领域，已成为全球最大的电池盒和车身结构件供应商；同时也在进一步着手布局人形机器 人、低空、液冷等领域，打开新的成长空间。客户方面，公司在业务发展和经营中凭借优秀的 产品品质和稳定的配套能力，积累了大量的优质客户资源，与国内外众多知名整车品牌建立了 良好的合作关系。 海外电动化加速公司电池盒业务发展。 电池盒是新能源汽车电池模块的承载体，对电池模块的安全工作和防护起着关键作用，是底盘 一体化的重要部件。当前，电池盒市场规模随着新能源汽车渗透率提升而持续增长，其中根据 我们的测算：2024年中国新能源乘用车电池盒市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The East Wu Securities automotive team expresses gratitude for the support received from investors while acknowledging the pressure that comes with being recognized as the best analyst team in the automotive sector for 2025. The team reflects on the past decade, emphasizing the importance of luck, persistence, trial and error, and a sense of belonging in their growth. They recognize that the automotive industry is still in a rapid technological innovation cycle, presenting significant investment opportunities, and they aim to break through their own limitations to pursue their dreams together [4]. Group 1 - The cyclical nature of development applies to sell-side analysts, and the automotive research process over the past decade has highlighted this understanding. Breaking through personal limitations requires stepping out of comfort zones, embracing failure, and aligning actions with thoughts. The driving force behind this breakthrough is the pursuit of dreams [5]. - The team aspires to return to the fundamental responsibilities of sell-side analysts, focusing on creating value through research. They aim to witness the growth of outstanding entrepreneurs during each cycle of automotive industry trends while generating value for investors. The team acknowledges the challenges of realizing this dream, as each cycle requires a complete overhaul of thinking and continuous innovation and iteration within the team [5]. - The East Wu automotive team seeks to recruit individuals who are willing to pursue dreams together, emphasizing their commitment to internal development and the annual recruitment of outstanding graduates to grow alongside the team [5]. Group 2 - Interns can expect to receive patient guidance from mentors, mastering essential skills for research report writing and understanding the basic frameworks of industry research. The research institute organizes regular training sessions and shares experiences and techniques from industry veterans. Interns will also receive meal and transportation subsidies [6]. - Main responsibilities for interns include collecting and organizing industry and company data and information, assisting in writing industry and company research reports, and engaging in discussions with analysts to share insights [6]. - The East Wu automotive team has received numerous accolades, including being ranked first in the automotive and auto parts sector in the 22nd New Fortune Best Analyst Awards and consistently ranking in the top positions in various other prestigious awards over the years [6].

Investment Highlights - November sales: Domestic sales met expectations, while wholesale and export exceeded expectations. November heavy truck production reached 114,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +84.4% and +9.8% respectively. Wholesale sales were 113,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +65.4% and +6.6%. Terminal sales were 77,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +34.3% and +9.6%. Exports reached 33,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +44.0% and +0.7%. Overall industry inventory increased by 420 units, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [2][14][17]. Industry Structure - In November, the performance of engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles. Terminal sales of engineering vehicles were 8,500 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +41.2% and +13.1%. Logistics vehicle sales were 68,200 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +33.5% and +8.9%. The market share of engineering vehicles and logistics vehicles was 11.1% and 88.9% respectively, with engineering vehicle share increasing by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, while logistics vehicle share decreased by 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points [3][36]. Market Share Dynamics - In November, Foton's domestic sales share increased year-on-year, while the export shares of Jiefang and Foton rose month-on-month. The terminal sales market shares for November were 21.1% for Jiefang, 18.0% for Dongfeng, 16.9% for Heavy Truck, 11.0% for Shaanxi Heavy Truck, and 12.4% for Foton, showing changes compared to the full year of 2024 [4][16][53]. Engine Market - Weichai maintained the top market share in the engine sector. In November, the market shares for Weichai, Cummins, Xichai, Heavy Truck, and Yuchai were 17.4%, 15.6%, 14.6%, 9.2%, and 11.1% respectively. Weichai's terminal matching volume was 13,000 units, with year-on-year growth of +11.8% but a month-on-month decline of -7.1% [5][19][70]. Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the market performance driven by the National IV policy. Recommendations include investing in China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, while also paying attention to the performance improvement potential of FAW Jiefang and Foton [7][18].

Core Insights - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for automotive intelligence, initiating a three-year cycle that will elevate domestic electrification penetration rates to over 50%-80%, leading to a restructuring of the automotive landscape [4][11] - Leading intelligent driving manufacturers have successfully implemented complex urban scenarios such as roundabouts and U-turns, enhancing high-level functionalities like parking from space to space and scene understanding, thereby improving the driving experience for passengers and safety personnel [4][11] Group 1: Intelligent Driving Experience Evaluation - A comprehensive evaluation was conducted on seven intelligent driving manufacturers, including AITO, Blue Mountain, Xiaopeng, Ideal, Tengshi, Xiaomi, and NIO, using both large sample concentrated road tests and small sample in-depth road tests, focusing on scene realization, takeover frequency, and comfort [5][11] - The report does not rank the intelligent capabilities of specific manufacturers due to subjective factors and real-world conditions affecting the evaluation [5][11] Group 2: Performance Trends - Compared to Q1, the performance gap among manufacturers in Q4 is narrowing, with the second-tier manufacturers improving their capabilities in urban scenarios like roundabouts and U-turns, and showing a significant reduction in takeover frequency [7][11] - The first-tier manufacturers are currently undergoing a foundational architecture transition, with tangible results expected to be validated through iterative improvements [7][11] Group 3: Specific Manufacturer Insights - In Shenzhen, the intelligent driving systems must handle complex scenarios such as roadside parking and narrow road navigation, with proactive understanding being more suitable [6][11] - Huawei and Xiaopeng lead in overall takeover frequency and performance across various scenarios, particularly excelling in challenging situations [6][11] - Wei brand Blue Mountain demonstrated strong capabilities in handling complex scenarios during large sample concentrated road tests [6][11] Group 4: Road Test Methodology - The concentrated road test involved nearly 50 participants testing various models along a standardized route, while the small sample in-depth tests were conducted by the same evaluators under similar conditions to ensure consistency [12][15] - The concentrated road test aimed to assess the overall performance, reliability, and efficiency of the intelligent driving systems under real-world conditions [41][12] Group 5: Technical Developments - The report highlights advancements in intelligent driving technologies, including the latest iterations of systems from manufacturers like Huawei, Xiaopeng, and NIO, showcasing improvements in perception and decision-making capabilities [19][20][27] - Each manufacturer has adopted different hardware and software solutions, with most having developed their own intelligent driving chips [36][36]

Investment Highlights - The automotive sector has shown positive performance this week, with the SW motorcycle and other segments leading with a gain of 1.7% [4][13] - The top five stocks covered this week include Chunfeng Power, Xusheng Group, Great Wall Motors, Hengshuai Co., and Desay SV [4][13] Industry Core Changes - On December 12, 2025, the State Administration for Market Regulation released the "Guidelines for Compliance with Pricing Behavior in the Automotive Industry (Draft for Comments)" [6][13] - The Central Economic Work Conference was held to optimize the implementation of the "Two New" policies [6][13] - Longxin General announced a partnership with Zhiyuan Robotics, focusing on industrial manufacturing and intelligent mobility, aiming to accelerate the development of L2 and L3 product lines [6][13] - Hezhima Intelligent and Yuanrong Qixing have reached a deep cooperation agreement to promote the mass production of advanced driver assistance technologies [6][13] - WeRide and Uber announced a partnership with the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) to officially launch Robotaxi services through the Uber app in Dubai [6][13] Current Automotive Sector Configuration - The automotive industry is perceived to be at a new crossroads, with the electric vehicle (EV) boom nearing its end and the intelligent vehicle sector entering a phase of innovation [9][14] - Three main investment opportunities are identified: - **AI Intelligent Vehicle Main Line**: Focus on Robotaxi and Robovan, with key players including Tesla, Xiaopeng Motors, and Horizon Robotics [9][14] - **Upstream Supply Chain Key Stocks**: Include B-end vehicle OEMs like BAIC Blue Valley and GAC Group, as well as core suppliers in testing, chips, and sensors [9][14] - **AI Robotics Main Line**: Focus on selected components from companies like Top Group and Junsheng Electronics [9][14] Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector ranked 9th in A-shares and 14th in Hong Kong this week, with motorcycles and other segments performing the best [18][21] - The overall automotive sector has shown stability, with the SW motorcycle and other segments leading in performance [21][28]

Key Points - The core view is that in the heavy truck sector, exports will surpass domestic sales by 2026, with electric and natural gas vehicles outpacing diesel trucks, focusing on export leaders [2][3][12] - For 2025, domestic sales are expected to reach 814,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, while exports are projected at 332,000 units, up 14.3%, leading to a total wholesale volume of 1,143,000 units, reflecting a 26.7% increase [2][19] - The natural demand for heavy trucks is stabilizing, with an estimated 646,000 units driven by natural demand in 2025, indicating that policy support is not the sole driver of growth [2][19] - By 2026, the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is expected to rise to 30%-35%, with natural gas trucks also gaining traction as gas prices decline and oil prices stabilize [3][12] - Investment recommendations include focusing on export leaders such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck H), engine leaders like Weichai Power, and companies with potential in both export and domestic sales like China National Heavy Duty Truck A, FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, and CIMC Vehicles [3][12] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected 3% increase in domestic sales and a 30% increase in exports [5][13] - The key players in the bus sector include Yutong and King Long, which are expected to benefit from the dual drivers of domestic recovery and sustained overseas demand [6][13] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle market is witnessing a decline in domestic sales but a significant increase in exports, particularly for large-displacement motorcycles, which are expected to grow by 31% year-on-year in 2026 [8][14] - The total motorcycle sales for 2026 are projected to reach 19.38 million units, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to account for 1.26 million units [8][14] - Investment recommendations in the motorcycle sector favor leading companies such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [9][14]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of the intelligent driving industry over the past decade, identifying it as a 0-1 introduction phase characterized by iterative development of hardware and software, with each major upgrade representing a paradigm shift [4][11][17] - The industry is segmented into three phases: 2015-2017 as the initial investment phase with high valuations for any involvement in intelligent driving; 2018-2019 as a downturn period with limited domestic alternatives; and 2020-2022 as a phase where companies like Tesla thrived due to hardware advancements [4][11][28] - The current phase from 2023-2025 is described as a "dark before dawn" period, lacking major trends but presenting annual opportunities, with a shift from an electric vehicle pricing model to an AI-driven pricing model [5][11][12] Group 2 - The outlook for the next five years (2026-2030) emphasizes 2026 as a pivotal year for intelligent driving, marking the transition to a B-end commercial model for autonomous vehicles, while consumer adoption is expected to ramp up by 2028 [6][46] - Key drivers for investment opportunities in L4 RoboX include advancements in technology, cost reductions in vehicle BOM and intelligent driving kits, and regulatory support for L4 licenses in major cities [6][8][46] - The article outlines a new valuation framework for intelligent driving, focusing on the revenue-generating capacity of intelligent vehicles based on their ownership and capability levels [6][8][46] Group 3 - The article highlights the differences in the 2026 market compared to previous years, noting a stronger emphasis on AI logic over automotive logic, and a shift in focus from hardware opportunities to software breakthroughs [7][14] - Important catalysts for 2026 include model iterations from major players like Tesla and Xiaopeng, the rollout of RoboX services, and the introduction of new national standards for L3-L4 vehicles [8][14] - Investment strategies should prioritize B-end software companies over C-end hardware firms, with specific recommendations for stocks in both H-shares and A-shares markets [8][14]

Investment Highlights - This week, the automotive sector outperformed the market, with the commercial passenger vehicle segment showing the best performance at 4.5% increase [4][12][13] - Key stocks that performed well this week include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group H, Xinquan Co., Top Group, Xingyu Co., and Huguang Co. [4][12][27] Research Outcomes - The team released an in-depth report on Xiaopeng Motors and a sales review for Yutong Bus for November [5][12] Industry Changes - Cao Cao Mobility held a strategic upgrade conference for Robotaxi, proposing a "Ten Years, Hundred Cities, Hundred Billion" strategy and launched the first future urban transportation hub, the "Green Intelligent Passage Island" [6][12][13] - Top Group is advancing its H-share listing [6][12][13] - Desay SV plans to establish Huizhou Chuanxing Zhiyuan Technology Co., Ltd. to develop Robovan business [6][12][13] - WeRide's end-to-end ADAS solution won the China Smart Driving Competition [6][12][13] Current Automotive Sector Configuration - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) dividend and the dawn of automotive intelligence. Three main investment opportunities are emerging during this transition phase [8][14] - **AI Intelligent Vehicle Main Line**: Focus on Robotaxi/van and C-end vehicles. Key targets include: - **Robotaxi Perspective**: Integrated models like Tesla, Xiaopeng Motors, and Qianli Technology; technology providers and operational sharing models like Horizon Robotics and Baidu; transformation of ride-hailing/taxi services like Cao Cao Mobility [8][14] - **Robovan Perspective**: Desay SV and others [8][14] - **C-end Vehicle Sales Perspective**: Whole vehicles from Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, Huawei, Xiaomi, etc. [8][14] - **Upstream Supply Chain Key Targets**: B-end vehicle manufacturing like BAIC Blue Valley, GAC Group, SAIC Group; core suppliers in testing, chips, domain controllers, sensors, and more [8][14] AI Robotics Main Line - Focus on selected components such as Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, Xinquan Co., and others [8][14] Dividend & Good Pattern Main Line - Focus on passenger vehicles (Yutong Bus), heavy trucks (China National Heavy Duty Truck A-H, Weichai Power), and two-wheelers (Chunfeng Power, Longxin General) [9][14]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for liquid cooling and robotics driven by AI is experiencing an explosive growth, initiating a new growth curve for the automotive parts industry. AI is continuously upgrading computing infrastructure and smart terminals, leading to the necessity of liquid cooling systems in high-power density scenarios, while robotics is transitioning from 0-1 to 1-10. This synergy between liquid cooling, robotics, and automotive parts is reshaping the business boundaries and growth trajectories of the automotive parts industry [2][8]. Investment Highlights - The automotive parts industry, equipped with technological synergies, system integration, cost reduction capabilities, and global capabilities, is set to benefit from the AI-driven wave. Automotive manufacturers and parts companies are expanding their business boundaries to achieve "homogeneous manufacturing + scenario collaboration." The collaboration between automotive companies and parts manufacturers will transfer the brain capabilities of intelligent driving to embodied intelligence, with companies like Tesla, Xiaopeng, and Xiaomi migrating their models, data, computing power, and supply chain systems to embodied intelligence [3][8]. Investment Recommendations - Liquid cooling is entering a phase of large-scale penetration and high prosperity realization. With the stabilization of Tesla's robot V3, the sector is moving into the 1-10 phase, focusing on certainty and supply chains with global capabilities. Recommended companies in the robotics sector include Top Group, Zhongding, Xiaopeng Motors, Junsheng Electronics, Shuanghuan Transmission, Aikodi, Xingyuan Zhuomai, and Xusheng Group. For the liquid cooling sector, recommended companies include Top Group, Zhongding, Yinlun, and Feilong [4][8]. Robotics Development - The Optimus V3 is expected to be finalized soon, marking the transition of T-chain robots into the 1-10 phase. Tesla has established a dual-driven approach of hardware architecture convergence and large model/training foundation, with plans to initiate a million-unit production line by the end of the year. The focus will be on the dexterous hand and brain capabilities, with significant advancements in technology and design expected [13][40]. Market Trends - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to mirror the growth trajectory of the new energy vehicle sector from 2010 to 2014, currently in the pre-investment stage. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to rise significantly, with the humanoid robot sector beginning to see substantial order changes and early application scenarios coming to fruition [27][31]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The domestic robotics industry is characterized by a diverse landscape of technology giants, automotive manufacturers, startups, and academic institutions. The focus is shifting from factory training to small-scale external sales, driven by educational and industrial pilot projects [41][45]. Sensor Technology - Robotics sensors are categorized into four types: force sensors, visual sensors, position sensors, and tactile sensors. The six-dimensional force sensor is the most valuable, while visual sensors are primarily composed of laser radar and RGB cameras. The demand for these sensors is expected to grow significantly as the robotics industry advances [71][73]. Cost Reduction Strategies - Domestic manufacturers are expected to accelerate cost reduction through the production of precision gears and bearings, which can be used interchangeably with robot reducer production equipment. The price of domestic harmonic reducers is significantly lower than that of overseas products, indicating a strong potential for domestic substitution [65][66].