看好头部第三方智驾供应商突破机遇：智驾平权需求+性能追赶/量产验证共同驱动： 第三方智驾供应商或成为二三线车企智驾平权最优方案： 展望终局，我们认为头部车企与头部 智驾供应商都有望依托智能驾驶领域的积累拓展至具身智能大赛道，头部智驾供应商或成为二 三线车企智驾平权最优方案，预计头部智驾供应商的潜在市场份额为全部新车销量的50%左 右。 理解本轮智能化对国产芯片端影响：智驾平权是主线，系统降本是暗线。 车企竞争加剧/智驾 方案内卷的大背景下【全栈自研】成为车企当下考虑的次要因素，我们认为城市级别NOA的智 驾平权正在加速到来。车企对于功能上车的思路永远兼顾性能和成本，目前看即将落地的基于 国产芯片的智驾方案或为当下高阶智驾方案的成本最优解。 如何衡量国产芯片的比较优势？： 英伟达凭借Orin系列智驾芯片在当下高阶智驾市场独领鳌头，据我们观察国产芯片供应商经过 近五年的追赶在产品性能、量产验证、客户获取多个维度开始比肩英伟达。 如何看待第三方芯片供应商的核心价值： 先发的重要性： 智驾芯片普遍需要三年以上研发制造周期，同时具备持续迭代能力的芯片设计 厂商才能实现芯片性能的成本的平衡。 设计制造成本视角： 据我们测 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has established itself as a leader in the automotive parts industry, particularly in engine cooling and emission reduction components, with a strong focus on both traditional and new energy vehicles, leading to significant revenue growth and profitability improvements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Business Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the automotive parts industry for over 60 years, starting production in 1964 and transitioning into the new energy sector in 2009, forming a comprehensive product matrix that includes traditional and new energy components [1][2][12]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 4.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.34%, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 25.92% [1][22]. Group 2: Main Business Performance - The company maintains a solid foundation in its core products: mechanical water pumps, exhaust manifolds, and turbocharger housings, with a market share of 25% in mechanical water pumps and 20% in turbocharger housings [2][22]. - The exhaust manifold segment is experiencing a surge in demand due to the dual carbon goals, with the company investing in research and development to create heat-resistant steel exhaust manifolds [2][43]. - The turbocharger housing segment is benefiting from the increasing sales of hybrid vehicles, with projected sales exceeding 5 million units in 2024 [2][56]. Group 3: New Energy and Non-Automotive Business Expansion - The company's new energy business, primarily from electronic pumps and thermal management components, is expected to generate 526 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.44% [3][22]. - The non-automotive business is expanding through data center liquid cooling solutions, with expectations for sustained growth in the next 1-2 years [3][84]. - The company has established subsidiaries in Southeast Asia, with a factory in Thailand set to begin production in September 2025, projected to contribute an additional 1.5 billion yuan in revenue [5][22]. Group 4: Profitability and Investment Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 5.447 billion yuan, 6.268 billion yuan, and 6.942 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 455 million yuan, 631 million yuan, and 789 million yuan respectively [6][22]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its profitability through improved cost management and product structure optimization, with gross margins expected to reach 21.5% in 2024 [26][29].

Core Viewpoint - The company, a leader in crankshafts, is leveraging opportunities in the new energy and robotics sectors to create new growth trajectories [1][5]. Group 1: Company Overview and Growth Strategy - Established in 1995 and listed in 2014, the company specializes in crankshafts, clutches, precision forgings, gears, and bolts, positioning itself as a domestic leader in crankshafts [1][12]. - In 2022, the company entered the new energy sector with electric drive gears and plans to develop robotic gear products by 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards new growth areas [1][5]. Group 2: Crankshaft Demand and Market Dynamics - The demand for crankshafts is expected to rise due to the increasing sales of hybrid vehicles, which still require crankshafts despite the rise of pure electric vehicles [2][48]. - The company has successfully transitioned its crankshaft business from commercial vehicles to passenger vehicles, with over 50% of its crankshaft supply for BYD in 2024 [2][58]. - A new production line with a capacity of 1 million hybrid crankshafts is expected to be operational by May 2025, further enhancing the company's market position [2][53]. Group 3: New Energy Gear Expansion - The company established a new energy electric drive technology subsidiary in May 2022, investing 408 million yuan to develop precision gear products, with production expected to start in July 2024 [3][18]. - The company has secured multiple projects with major clients like BYD and Geely, indicating strong demand for its new energy gear products [3][18]. Group 4: Robotics Business Development - In 2024, the company entered the robotics sector by acquiring a 35% stake in Changban (Yangzhou) Robot Technology, showcasing its commitment to diversifying its business [5][18]. - The company aims to leverage its existing customer base and technical expertise in precision gears to establish a foothold in the robotics market [5][18]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Projections - The company experienced a significant rebound in 2022, with revenues of 1.135 billion yuan, a 37.5% decline from the previous year, but is projected to achieve revenues of 1.648 billion yuan in 2024, a 21.89% increase [24][25]. - Forecasts suggest revenues of 2.434 billion yuan, 3.019 billion yuan, and 3.394 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 301 million yuan, 385 million yuan, and 460 million yuan [6][25].

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 摩托车海外市场近万亿空间，出口大有可为： 销量维度，2024年海外摩托车市场销量4000万辆以上，大排量销量约344万辆，为国内8-9倍空 间；收入维度，2024年海外摩托车市场规模9320亿元，近万亿级别市场。据摩托车商会，2024 年中国品牌摩托车出口1102万辆，海外市占率25.7%，其中大排量出口仅35.9万辆，海外份额 10.4%，中国品牌海外份额提升空间大，出口大有可为。 欧美澳引领玩乐市场，亚非拉主导通路车大市场： 收入维度，海外主要大市场包括：东南亚（2.3千亿元）南亚（2.7千亿元）欧洲（1.6千亿元） 拉美（1.3千亿元）北美（562亿元）。不同市场需求结构及竞争格局迥异，日系品牌统领全 球，欧美系品牌在高端市场领先，同时各地本土品牌百花齐放。 细分来看，北美： 美国占90%，规模约60万辆+大排量渗透率90%以上的高端市场，日系+本土 品牌为主； 拉美： 规模约450万辆且持续扩容+大排量渗透率10%的中端市场，日系+本土品牌 为主，印度系/中国品牌均有一定份额，此外中国品牌为当地本土品牌代工并贴牌出口； 欧洲 核心五国： 规模100万辆以上且持续 ...

Core Viewpoints - The growth of the motorcycle market is driven by two key factors: exports and large-displacement motorcycles, with the latter transitioning from a tool to a consumer product [2][8][11] - The domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2030, reaching 800,000 units by 2030 [3][77][80] - The overseas motorcycle market presents a substantial opportunity for Chinese brands, with an expected market size of 932 billion yuan in 2024, and a significant growth potential for large-displacement exports [4][8][11] Group 1: Market Overview - The annual motorcycle sales in China range from 19 to 20 million units, with small-displacement models dominating the market [2][15] - The motorcycle industry has undergone three phases: popularization, decline, and differentiated growth, with a notable shift towards large-displacement motorcycles since 2020 [2][19][20] - The domestic sales of fuel motorcycles are projected to decline from 7.71 million units in 2019 to 5.44 million units in 2024, while large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to grow from 110,000 to 400,000 units during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 28.8% [3][32] Group 2: Large-Displacement Motorcycle Market - The penetration rate of large-displacement motorcycles in China is expected to increase from 1.5% in 2019 to 7.5% in 2024, indicating a growing consumer interest in this segment [3][41] - The market for large-displacement motorcycles is being driven by rising outdoor sports demand and the development of motorcycle culture, with a significant increase in motorcycle events and clubs [3][48][56] - By 2024, the share of 400-500cc models is expected to rise to 46%, indicating a trend towards higher performance and larger displacement motorcycles [3][63] Group 3: Export Opportunities - The overseas motorcycle market is projected to exceed 40 million units in 2024, with large-displacement motorcycle sales estimated at 3.44 million units, representing a significant growth opportunity for Chinese manufacturers [4][8] - In 2024, Chinese motorcycle exports are expected to reach 11.02 million units, with a 25.7% share of the overseas market, highlighting the potential for further growth in large-displacement exports [4][8] - The export of large-displacement motorcycles is accelerating, with a CAGR of 67.6% from 2022 to 2024, as domestic brands enhance their international presence [4][8] Group 4: Key Players - The leading companies in the large-displacement motorcycle market include Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang, with Chunfeng expected to become the market leader in 2024 [5][9] - Chunfeng's motorcycle sales are projected to grow from 45,000 units in 2019 to 308,000 units in 2024, with a focus on large-displacement products [5][9] - Longxin's large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to increase from 21,000 units in 2019 to 108,000 units in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 38.6% [6][9]

| 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 盈利预测与投资评级： 由于公司传统业务增速放缓，且新产品放量对整体毛利率有所影响，我们下调2025-2026年营 收 预 测 为 91/111 亿 元 （ 原 为 95/115 亿 元 ） ， 预 计 2027 年 营 收 为 135 亿 元 ， 同 比 分 别 +30%/+22%/+21%；下调2025-2026年归母净利润为5.1/7.2亿元（原为5.9/7.8亿元），预计2027 年归母净利润为9.2亿元，同比分别+68%/+41%/+28%，对应PE分别为16/11/9倍，维持"买入"评 级。 风险提示： 新产品落地不及预期，乘用车价格战超出预期 公司发布2024年年报及2025年一季报，2024年业绩低于我们预期，2025年一季报业绩符合我们 预期。2024年营业收入为70.3亿元，同比+19.1%，归母净利润为3.0亿元，同比-20.1%，扣非归 母净利润为2.5亿元，同比-14.0%。25Q1营业收入19.0亿元，同环比+28.5%/-4.7%，归母净利润 1.0亿元，同环比+40.0%/+76.5%，扣非归母净利润0.8亿元，同环比+25.1%/+ ...

公司25Q1核心客户奇瑞/吉利产量同比+29%/+43%，吉利银河3.0平台车型销量超过17万台贡献 较多线控制动增量。分产品看，25Q1智能电控产品（EPB+线控制动）销量同比+58%，盘式制 动器销量同比+36%，轻量化产品销量同比+23%，各业务线均实现较快增长。 毛利率同环比承压，费用呈现规模效应： | 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 公司公布2025年一季报，业绩低于我们预期。2025年一季度公司营业收入26.4亿元，同环比 +41.8%/-21.5%，归母净利润2.7亿元，同环比+28.8%/-37.3%，扣非归母净利润2.7亿元，同环比 +38.6%/-34.2%。 重点客户需求放量，25Q1收入同比高增： 追溯会计准则调整对毛利率和费用的影响，25Q1毛利率17.8%，同环比-2.3pct/-2.9pct，推测主 要为下游客户年降影响及墨西哥工厂尚处于爬坡期所致。25Q1公司期间费用率为7.40%，同环 比 -1.5pct/+1.3pct ， 其 中 销 售 费 用 率 / 管 理 费 用 率 / 研 发 费 用 率 / 财 务 费 用 率 分 别 为 0.41%/2.55%/4.8 ...

| 投资要点 | | --- | 营收方面，公司2025Q1实现营业收入2.03亿元，同比下降16.04%，环比下降21.44%。公司2025 年一季度营收同比下滑预计主要系清洗系统业务受合资车企客户销量下滑拖累。毛利率方面， 公司2025Q1单季度综合毛利率为32.22%，同比下降4.57个百分点，环比微降0.28个百分点。公 司2025年一季度毛利率同比有所下降，预计主要系对客户降价所致。期间费用方面，公司 2025Q1期间费用率为11.53%，同比提升3.63个百分点，环比提升1.37个百分点；其中，销售/管 理/研发/财务费用率分别为1.37%/7.63%/3.67%/-1.14%，同比分别+0.01/+2.50/+0.83/+0.29个百分 点。归母净利润方面，公司2025Q1实现归母净利润0.42亿元，同比下降35.48%，环比下降 16.71%；对应归母净利率20.61%，同比下降6.21个百分点，环比提升1.17个百分点。 公司在技术研发、成本控制、客户覆盖、产品拓展和产能布局等方面拥有核心竞争力： 技术研发： 公司在产品自主同步研发；产品试验；模具开发设计；智能化全自动产线自主研 发、设计及 ...

| 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 公司公布2025年一季报，25Q1公司实现营收574.6亿元，同环比分别+1.9%/+6.9%，实现归母净 利 润 27.1 亿 元 ， 同 环 比 分 别 +4.3%/-9.7% ， 扣 非 后 归 母 净 利 润 24.8 亿 元 ， 同 环 比 分 别 +5.98%/-11.8%。 凯傲计提支出影响归母净利润4.72亿元： 根据一季报，25Q1凯傲增效计划计提支出14.65亿元，影响归母4.72亿元，加回后25Q1归母31.8 亿元，同环比分别+22.4%/+6.0%。根据凯傲公告，2025年全年增效计划预计计提2.4-2.6亿欧 元。 供应链降本持续释放利润，费用管控得当： 25Q1毛利率22.2%，同环比分别+0.5/-1.9pct，同比增长主因24Q2开始供应链降本效果持续体 现。25Q1公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别 5.6%/7.1%/3.55%，同比分别+0.3/+2.5/-0.2pct，环比 分别-0.6/+2.1/-0.35pct，其中25Q1管理费用40.9亿，同环比分别+56.6%/+50.4%，主因凯傲增效 计划支出影响。25Q1公司财 ...

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 板块最新观点 板块观点重申： 5月优先AI智能化+机器人！优选【小鹏汽车+地平线】！ 节前节后发生了哪些重要变化？ 中美贸易战或趋于缓和是最大的外在环境变化。美国允许对进 口汽车零部件、在美国组装汽车的汽车生产商进行一定程度的补偿，或是美国这轮持续加征关 税后的"松动表现"，有助于大幅缓解此前市场对汽车因为中美贸易战持续升级所带来的三层担 忧：1）贸易战升级对汽车外需的影响；2）贸易战升级引发间接的汽车内需价格战；3）小米 事故引发智驾强监管。而假期期间美股特斯拉/港股汽车表现均较为强势，港股地平线/小鹏汽 车等领涨。 当前时点汽车板块如何配置？： 我们依然坚持看好2025年【AI智能化/机器人+红利风格】两条主线并存选股思路，5月看好AI 智能化/机器人反弹空间或更大。【AI智能化/机器人】是乘用车-零部件大板块核心矛盾。乘用 车板块：港股优选【小鹏汽车-W/理想汽车-W/小米集团-W】等，A股优选【赛力斯/上汽集团/ 比亚迪】等；零部件板块：智能化增量部件优选【地平线机器人-W/黑芝麻智能/德赛西威/华阳 集团/伯特利】，机器人/电动化部件【拓普集团/瑞鹄模具/爱柯迪/博俊科 ...