Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the integration of Grammer is deepening, and the overseas performance inflection point has been basically established [1][9][10] - The company has completed the acquisition of Grammer and is advancing integration from multiple aspects, despite challenges such as the global pandemic and chip shortages [1][20][23] - In 2024, the company will continue to deepen the integration of Grammer overseas, with measures including the divestiture of the loss-making North American TMD subsidiary and strategic adjustments in the European region [1][28][29] Group 2 - The passenger car seat market is accelerating, with a market size exceeding 100 billion yuan in China, driven by consumer upgrades [2][39][43] - The industry has high barriers to entry, creating a favorable competitive landscape, with major players being foreign and joint ventures [2][47][51] - The company has secured a substantial number of high-quality seat projects, covering major OEMs, and an employee stock ownership plan is expected to enhance profitability [2][57][59] Group 3 - The company forecasts a significant improvement in performance, with net profits projected to reach 6.46 billion yuan, 10.97 billion yuan, and 13.84 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [4][61] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the passenger car seat industry, benefiting from a broad market space and accelerated domestic substitution [4][64] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its performance reversal and expected valuation premium [4][64]

Core Conclusion - The insurance sales for compulsory traffic insurance reached 381,000 vehicles in the second week of May, showing a week-on-week decrease of 14.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.8% [2][7] - The SW automotive index increased by 1.2%, with the best-performing segments being SW commercial cargo vehicles (+9.4%) and SW passenger vehicles (+4.3%) [2][7] - The top five stocks covered this week include Jianghuai Automobile, Jingwei Hengrun-W, Seres, Huguang Co., and Fuyao Glass, all showing significant gains [2][7] Industry Changes - BYD's Ocean Network announced a limited-time car purchase discount of up to 53,000 yuan, with the starting price for 12 models in the Dynasty Network dropping to 63,800 yuan [3][7] - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q1 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, with a net loss of 660 million yuan [3][7] - Leap Motor's Q1 revenue was 10.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 187.1% [3][7] - The S800 model from Zun Jie is expected to officially launch at the end of May [3][7] - Fuda Co.'s joint venture, Guilin Fuda Alfen, completed the transfer of 25% equity, with Fuda holding 25% and Alfen holding 75% [3][7] Sector Outlook - The automotive sector remains optimistic, focusing on three main lines: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions [4][8] - The automotive sector continues to lead the A-H share market, with passenger vehicles and components performing well [4][8] - Recommended stocks for the AI robotics line include Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, and Precision Forging Technology [4][8] - For the AI intelligence line, preferred stocks include Xiaopeng Motors-W, Li Auto-W, and Xiaomi Group-W in Hong Kong, and Seres and SAIC Group in A-shares [4][8] - The favorable market conditions line includes Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and Fuyao Glass [4][8] Weekly Market Review - The automotive sector ranked fourth in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this week, with a notable performance in commercial cargo vehicles [11][12] - The SW commercial cargo vehicle segment showed the best performance this week [16][28]

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？ 一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真 真切切反应到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背 后支撑因素： 1）天时： 符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余年的出 海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业【走出去】。 2）地利： 客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车已领先 海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 3）人和： 国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲击+新能 源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年宇通已率先提价，且需 求本身得益【旅游复苏+公交车更新需求】有望重回2019年水平。 客车这轮盈利能创新高吗？我们认为并不是遥不可及。 1）国内没有价格战。2）寡头龙头格局。3）海外无论新能源还是油车净利率远好于国内（无 需投固定资产）。4）碳酸锂成本持续下行。 客车这轮市值空间怎 ...

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 数据总览： 批发： 4月重卡批发销量8.8万辆，同环比分别为+6.5%/-21.4%，符合我们预期。 出口： 4月重卡出口销量2.6万辆，同环比分别为+0.8%/-7.2%，符合我们预期。 库存： 行业总库存-0.67万辆，当前行业总库存15.0万辆。 展望： 我们预计25年5月重卡内销6万辆左右，同比增长12%。 4月销量：产批零符合预期，出口符合预期 行业总量：4月产批零符合预期，出口符合预期。1）产量： 4月重卡产量7.8万辆，同环比分别 +2.2%/-32.4%； 2）批发： 4月重卡批发销量8.8万辆，同环比分别+6.5%/-21.4%； 3）上险： 4 月重卡终端销量6.9万辆，同环+5.9%/-4.3%； 4）出口： 4月重卡出口销量2.6万辆，同环比分 别为+0.8%/-7.2%； 5）库存： 4月重卡企业库存-0.9万辆，渠道库存-0.7万辆。根据我们测算， 当前行业总库存15.0万辆，库存处于合理水平。 行业结构：新能源持续高增，天然气同比回升。 4月新能源重卡销量1.6万辆，同环比分别 +243%/+4.8%，新能源渗透率22.9%，同环比分别+1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported a significant revenue increase in Q1, driven by a substantial rise in vehicle deliveries, indicating strong market demand and operational efficiency [3][4]. Financial Performance - Q1 revenue reached 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, with vehicle sales contributing 14.37 billion yuan, up 159.2% year-on-year [3]. - The company recorded a net loss of 660 million yuan in Q1, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 430 million yuan, showing a reduction compared to previous quarters [3]. - Gross margin improved to 15.6%, with vehicle gross margin at 10.5%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth [4]. - R&D expense ratio decreased to 12.5%, while sales, administrative, and general expense ratio fell to 12.3%, indicating effective cost control [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to launch several new models in 2025, including the Mona M03 MAX and a new generation of P7, which are expected to enhance market presence and drive sales [5]. - AI technology integration is a key focus, with the production of self-developed Turing chips set to begin in Q2 2025, aiming to strengthen competitive advantage in the automotive sector [5]. Revenue Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 94.7 billion, 167.6 billion, and 249.1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 132%, 77%, and 49% respectively [6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is revised down to 350 million yuan, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [6]. Key Financial Metrics - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 0.18, 4.02, and 6.32 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 412, 19, and 12 [6]. - The company aims to achieve profitability by 2025, supported by enhanced AI capabilities and new product launches [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth and improved gross margins in Q1 2025, indicating strong operational performance and strategic advancements in the electric vehicle market [3][4][6]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 10.02 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 187.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 25.6% [3]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 14.9% in Q1 2025, a historical high, with year-on-year growth of 16.3% and a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6 percentage points [4]. - The net loss for Q1 2025 was 130 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 1.01 billion yuan in Q1 2024 and a profit of 80 million yuan in Q4 2024 [3][4]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company sold 88,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 162.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27.6% [4]. - As of March 2025, the company has established 756 sales outlets and 449 service centers across 279 cities, with plans to expand coverage to 90% in cities above the prefecture level by the end of 2025 [4]. Export and International Strategy - In Q1 2025, the company exported 7,500 vehicles and has established over 500 sales and service points internationally, with more than 450 in Europe [4]. - The company is advancing local assembly projects in Malaysia and plans to initiate localized manufacturing in Europe by 2026 [4]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 610 million, 4.4 billion, and 7.67 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting confidence in new vehicle launches and market positioning [6]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its strategic advantages in the mainstream electric vehicle market and collaborations with Stellantis and FAW [6].

Core Viewpoints - Automotive glass is a high-quality component sector with continuous upgrade capabilities, driven by electrification, intelligence, and consumer upgrades. The product functionalities are expanding beyond traditional roles to include heat insulation, sound insulation, heating, hydrophobic properties, dimming, antennas, lightweight designs, HUD windshields, and panoramic roofs. The revenue structure of Fuyao is increasingly focused on high-value-added products, leading to a sustained increase in the price per square meter of automotive glass, projected to rise from 131.06 RMB/sqm in 2012 to 229.11 RMB/sqm in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% and an 8% CAGR over the last three years [2][8][20]. Group 1: Electrification Cycle - The current phase of automotive glass upgrades is centered around panoramic roofs, HUD windshields, and dual-layer side windows. Panoramic roofs are larger and more aesthetically pleasing than traditional sunroofs, with additional heat insulation features that enhance their value. HUD windshields utilize wedge-shaped PVB interlayers to significantly increase their value, while the value of side windows is enhanced through added functionalities such as sound insulation and heat insulation [3][4][8]. Group 2: Intelligence Cycle - Automotive glass is poised for significant upgrades as a medium for information transmission in the wave of intelligence. Smart dimming glass can create a more comfortable cabin environment, and as technology and costs improve, its penetration rate is expected to rise. The demand for integrated glass antennas is also increasing, as glass does not obstruct signals, allowing for seamless integration without compromising vehicle aesthetics. Glass displays represent another new direction for smart cockpits, enabling direct integration of screens or optical projections into automotive glass [4][5][60]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends Fuyao Glass, a global leader in the automotive glass industry. The company is actively expanding the boundaries of "one piece of glass," enhancing research on smart glass and integration trends, and continuously advancing its aluminum trim business to increase the value per vehicle. Fuyao is expected to capture more market share from competitors in overseas markets due to its high quality and cost-effective competitive advantages [5][8].

Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by three main themes: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions [4][8] - The market showed strong performance in the automotive sector, with passenger vehicles and components leading the gains, influenced by better-than-expected adjustments in US-China tariffs and previous significant corrections in the automotive market [4][8] Weekly Review Summary - In the second week of May, the number of compulsory insurance policies reached 443,000 vehicles, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.5% and a month-on-month increase of 29.8% [2][7] - The SW automotive index rose by 2.4%, with the best-performing segments being SW passenger vehicles (+4.4%) and SW automotive components (+2.2%), while commercial vehicles and motorcycles showed declines [2][7] Key Industry Changes - Weipai New Energy launched the 2025 model of the Gaoshan vehicle, equipped with the Coffee Pilot Ultra intelligent driving assistance system [3][7] - BYD was added to the Hang Seng Technology Index [3][7] - Geely Automobile reported Q1 2025 revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, up 263.4% year-on-year [3][7] - The acquisition of 100% equity in Wuhu Changpeng was completed, and the company was renamed Wuhu Top [3][7] - Baolong Technology's second phase of the 4.8MW distributed photovoltaic project in Ningguo was completed and accepted [3][7] Sector Configuration Recommendations - The company maintains a positive outlook for 2025, focusing on three main themes: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions, with the robotics theme expected to have the highest elasticity in May [5][8] - Recommended stocks for the AI robotics theme include Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, and Precision Forging Technology [5][8] - For the AI intelligence theme, preferred stocks include Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, and Xiaomi in Hong Kong, and Seres, SAIC Motor, and BYD in A-shares [5][8] - The favorable market conditions theme includes recommendations for bus manufacturers like Yutong Bus and heavy-duty trucks like China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power [5][8] Market Performance Tracking - The automotive sector ranked third in A-shares and first in Hong Kong this week, with strong performances in passenger vehicles and components [12][21] - The automotive sector's performance in the SW index showed significant gains, with passenger vehicles leading the way [15][21] Sales Data Overview - In April, the total number of passenger vehicles insured was 443,000, with a year-on-year increase of 29.8% [44] - New energy vehicles accounted for 222,000 units, with a penetration rate of 50.2% [44]

| 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 公司2025Q1单季度营收725.0亿元，同比+24.5%；归母净利润56.7亿元，同比+263.4%。高于业 绩预告中值，表现符合我们预期。 Q1业绩符合预期： 会计准则方面Q1吉利已实现领克并表，2024Q1同期数据已进行重列。1） 营收： 公司Q1实现 总销量70.4万台，同环比分别+48.0%/+2.5%；单车ASP为10.3万元，同比-15.8%，原因为价格 竞争影响&单价较低的吉利主品牌销量占比同比+3.6pct。 2）毛利率： 2025Q1毛利率为 15.8％，同比+0.2pct，改善主要原因为规模效应&新能源产品盈利能力增强。 3）费用率： 25Q1销售/研发/行政费用率分别为5.0%/4.6%/2.0%，同比分别-2.1/0.0/-0.5pct。费用管控效果显 著。 4）其他收益： 25Q1公司其他收益35.9亿元，同环比分别+753.4%/+1613.1%，主要为汇兑 损益贡献。 5）净利润： 剔除其他收益&股份支付费用后公司Q1净利润为24.4亿元，同比 +84.3%。公司整体单车盈利为0.29万元，同比+59.1%。规模效应&一个吉利战略下 ...

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 本周复盘总结： 五月第一周交强险41.6万辆，环比上周/上月周度-5.9%/+26.5% 。 本周SW汽车指数+0.5%，细 分板块涨跌幅排序: SW摩托车及其他(+2.7%) >SW汽车零部件(+2.4%) >重卡指数(+2.4%) > SW 汽车(+2.0%)>SW乘用车(+1.8%)>SW商用载客车(0.0%) >SＷ商用载货车(-0.3%) 本周已覆盖标的 吉利汽车、中鼎股份、理想汽车-W、恒帅股份、亚太股份涨幅较好。 本周团队研究成果： 外发深度报告《以地平线为例，探究第三方智驾供应商核心竞争力》，外发摩托车系列深度第 一、二篇，外发飞龙股份、福达股份深度报告，外发2024Q4&2025Q1业绩综述，外发上海车展 总结，外发潍柴动力、保隆科技、伯特利、岱美股份、恒帅股份、双环传动、新泉股份、松原 安全、银轮股份2025一季报点评。 本周行业核心变化： 1） 理想汽车L系列发布2025款智能焕新版车型，L6/L7/L8/L9智能化、电池等升级，官方指导 价格不变； 2） 吉利汽车计划收购极氪已发行全部股份； 3） 文灿股份子公司获新客户三合一 电机壳体定点，预计 ...