Core Viewpoint - The bus industry represents China's automotive manufacturing sector becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to recreate a market equivalent to China in the next 3-5 years [4][12]. Group 1: Driving Factors for the Bus Industry - **Timing**: Aligns with the national strategy of "China's Special Valuation," with buses being key players in the "Belt and Road" initiative, leveraging over a decade of international experience [4][12]. - **Geographical Advantage**: Chinese bus technology and products are at a world-class level, leading in new energy buses and competitive in traditional buses regarding cost-effectiveness and service [4][12]. - **Human Factors**: The end of the domestic price war is expected to create a positive resonance, with demand recovering due to tourism and public transport renewal needs [4][12]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook - The current conditions suggest that achieving new high profitability is not out of reach, supported by the absence of price wars, an oligopolistic market structure, and better profit margins in overseas markets [5][16]. Group 3: Market Capitalization Potential - The short-term goal is to challenge the market capitalization peak from 2015-2017, while the long-term goal is to establish a new ceiling, witnessing the emergence of a true global bus leader [6][13]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - **Yutong Bus**: Identified as a "model student" with high growth and dividend attributes, projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 46.3 billion, 55.2 billion, and 66.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12%, 19%, and 21% [7][14]. - **King Long Automobile**: Considered the "fastest improving student," with significant profit elasticity, projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.4 billion, 6.4 billion, and 8.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 182%, 45%, and 28% [8][14]. Group 5: Industry Performance Data - In September 2025, the overall monthly production of the bus industry was 54,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 21% [19][20]. - The wholesale volume for September was 56,000 units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 34% and month-on-month growth of 25% [19][20]. - The terminal sales volume reached 57,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 28% and month-on-month growth of 35% [26].

| 黄细重 | 国際 高知道 | | --- | --- | | 刘力宇 | | | 孟璐 | | | 郭雨蒙 | 0 Gra | | 孙仁昊 | | | 赖思旭 | סוגים | | 童明祺 | Disto | | | | | 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 公司发布2025年三季度报告，25Q3公司实现收入50.4亿元，同环比分别+28.6%/-10.1%，实现 归母净利润4.13亿元，同环比分别+11%/-29.5%。 毛利率： 公司25Q3毛利率26.1%，同环比分别-4.7/-1.2pct，主要系美国关税影响+低毛利的两轮车收入占 比提升+摩托车毛利率下滑。 全地形车：U10pro销量超预期，结构优化带动单价持续提升。 费用端： 25Q3公司全地形车销量4.9万台，同环比+0.2%/-15.7%，其中美国表现弱于非美，U10pro销量 近1万台；25Q3全地形车ASP 4.8万，同环比分别+22.2%/+5.6%，主因产品结构变化，Q4会参 考竞对情况决定是否提价；25Q3全地形车毛利率环比持平。 公司25Q2销售/管理/研发费用率分别6.2%/4.1%/6.0%，同比分别-1.6/+0 ...

Investment Highlights - This week, the performance of the automotive sector lagged behind the broader market, with the best-performing sub-sector being commercial passenger vehicles, which declined by 1.0% [4][12][13] - The top five stocks covered this week included Daimay Co., GAC Group, Weichai Power, Changan Automobile, and Suzhou Axis, which showed positive growth [4][12][32] Industry Core Changes - Xiaopeng's new generation robot, IRON, is set to introduce the VLT system, which will enable direct output of tasks from visual and language inputs, potentially evolving into a thinking system in the future [6][12][14] - Leapmotor's flagship D platform technology was unveiled, showcasing the D19 model [6][12][14] - Yutong delivered 400 units of new energy buses to Pakistan in bulk [6][12][14] - Fuyao Glass reported Q3 2025 revenue of 11.855 billion yuan, a 2.75% increase quarter-on-quarter, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.59% to 2.259 billion yuan [6][12][14] Investment Opportunities - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) dividend and the dawn of automotive intelligence, while robotics innovation is in the 0-1 stage [8][14] - Three main investment themes are emerging: - **AI Intelligent Vehicles**: Focus on Robotaxi and Robovan, with key players including Tesla, Xiaopeng, and Horizon Robotics [8][14] - **AI Robotics**: Emphasis on component selection, with companies like Top Group and Junsheng Electronics highlighted [8][14] - **Dividend & Good Pattern**: Focus on commercial vehicles (Yutong), heavy trucks (China National Heavy Duty Truck Group), and two-wheelers (Chunfeng Power) [9][14] Market Performance - The automotive sector's valuation metrics, such as PE (TTM), have shown a decline this week, with the SW commercial passenger vehicle sector being the best performer [39][48] - The overall market sentiment for the automotive sector remains cautious, with a notable decrease in stock prices across various segments [12][18][25]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to refocus on investment opportunities in smart technology in Q4, driven by the ongoing AI trend and advancements in autonomous driving capabilities, particularly in Robotaxi applications [2][8]. Group 1: Q4 Smart Technology Outlook - The Q4 market will see a renewed emphasis on smart technology investment opportunities, as AI applications in the physical world are anticipated to exceed expectations in the next 3-5 years [2][8]. - Key catalysts for smart technology in Q4 include the release of Tesla's V14 version, Xiaopeng's upcoming technology day, and the introduction of new autonomous vehicles by various companies [2][8]. Group 2: Comparison with Last Year - Similarities with last year's Q4 include the expansion of AI applications, but this year emphasizes the evolution of AI logic rather than the resonance between automotive and AI logic [3][9]. - The focus has shifted from hardware opportunities and consumer sales to software opportunities and breakthroughs in B2B applications [3][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The preferred investment strategy favors Hong Kong stocks over A-shares, prioritizing software over hardware and B2B over B2C applications, with recommended stocks including Xiaopeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, and Cao Cao Mobility [4][9]. - Key investment targets include integrated models for Robotaxi, technology providers, and the transformation of ride-hailing services [4][9]. Group 4: Smart Technology Market Dynamics - The price war among passenger car manufacturers is more intense than expected, which could significantly impact profitability across the supply chain [5]. - The recovery of terminal demand is below expectations, which may affect sales growth for car manufacturers [5]. Group 5: Smart Technology Development Review - In August, the penetration rate of smart technology reached 23.3%, with significant advancements in autonomous driving capabilities among leading players [10]. - By October, the focus will be on the iterative development of next-generation driving architectures and the sales performance of key smart vehicles [10]. Group 6: Consumer Willingness to Pay - The consumer willingness to pay for smart technology is expected to evolve in two phases, with the first phase focusing on helping car manufacturers sell vehicles and the second phase aiming for software monetization [20][18]. Group 7: Future Projections - By 2025-2027, the core task of automotive smart technology will be to achieve a penetration rate of 50%-80% for new energy vehicles, while the period from 2028-2030 is expected to see the large-scale commercialization of Robotaxi services [20][19]. Group 8: Smart Technology Supply Chain Tracking - The supply chain for smart technology is being closely monitored, with various companies contributing to different aspects of the technology, including perception, decision-making, and execution [14][13]. Group 9: Key Metrics and Trends - The penetration rates for smart driving capabilities among different brands show significant variation, with Xiaopeng at 76.1% and Wey at 95.6% [25][26]. - The overall market dynamics indicate a competitive landscape with rapid advancements in technology and varying consumer adoption rates [24][23].

Investment Highlights - In the first week of October, compulsory insurance reached 463,000 vehicles, down 28.2% week-on-week but up 28.4% month-on-month [2] - The performance of sub-sectors this week ranked as follows: SW Commercial Passenger Vehicles (+7.4%) > SW Motorcycles and Others (-0.9%) > SW Passenger Vehicles (-1.0%) > SW Auto Parts (-1.7%) > SW Commercial Cargo Vehicles (-1.9%) [2] - The top five stocks covered this week included King Long Automobile, Daimay Co., Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group H, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A [2] Industry Core Changes - Xiaopeng Motors appointed Liu Xianming, the head of the World Base Model, as the new leader of the Smart Driving No. 1 position [3] - Seres' subsidiary, Chongqing Phoenix Technology, signed a business cooperation framework agreement with Volcano Engine [3] - Changan's Qiyuan Q07 Tian Shu Intelligent Laser version was officially launched, equipped with Horizon Journey 6M [3] Q4 Investment Opportunities in AI Smart Vehicles - The automotive sector underperformed the broader market this week, with buses performing the best among sub-sectors [4] - Key changes included the leadership change at Xiaopeng Smart Driving, Yutong's September sales exceeding expectations, Seres' collaboration with ByteDance on embodied intelligence, and strong sales in heavy trucks for September [4] Current Configuration of the Automotive Sector - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads phase, with the electric vehicle (EV) boom nearing its end and smart vehicle technology in a "dark before dawn" stage [5] - Three main investment opportunities are identified: - **AI Smart Vehicle Main Line**: Focus on Robotaxi/van and C-end vehicles - **Upstream Supply Chain Key Stocks**: Include B-end vehicle OEMs and core suppliers in various components [6] - **AI Robot Main Line**: Focus on selected auto parts suppliers [6] - **Dividend & Good Pattern Main Line**: Focus on buses, heavy trucks, and two-wheelers [6] Weekly Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week was mixed, with SW Commercial Cargo Vehicles performing the best [20] - The top five stocks in the automotive sector this week included Songyuan Safety, Jingwei Hengrun-W, Seres, New Spring Co., and Yadi Holdings [26] Valuation Metrics - This week, the PE (TTM) of SW Auto, SW Passenger Vehicles, SW Commercial Cargo Vehicles, and SW Auto Parts increased, while SW Commercial Passenger Vehicles' PE (TTM) decreased [34] - The global vehicle valuation PS (TTM) remained stable, with A-share vehicle valuations also stable [44]

Core Viewpoint - The company has deepened its presence in the bearing industry for decades and is positioned as a leading player in the sector, with a significant rebound in performance since 2022, projecting a profitable trajectory into 2024 and beyond [2][24]. Group 1: Bearing Business Performance - The bearing segment is the company's primary business, benefiting from the continuous growth in China's automotive production and sales, as well as the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, leading to a rise in both volume and price [3][59]. - The average selling price (ASP) of bearings increased from 8.42 to 9.56 yuan/set, with bearing revenue reaching 742 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.84% [3][59]. - The synchronizer and planetary gear business, the second-largest segment, has seen a rebound in profitability, with a gross margin of 25.59% in the first half of 2025, up 5.08 percentage points year-on-year [3][74]. Group 2: Automotive Electronics and PCB Business - The company entered the automotive electronics sector in 2020, with revenue from PCB (FPC) steadily increasing, and gross margin improving from -98.17% to -17.18% by the first half of 2025 [5][94]. - The expansion into AI wearable devices has been initiated, with multiple leading companies already engaged, and production expected to ramp up between 2025 and 2027 [5][97]. - The automotive electronics market is projected to grow significantly, with the Chinese automotive electronics market expected to reach 1.51 trillion yuan by 2028, growing at a CAGR of approximately 7.5% from 2022 to 2028 [88][94]. Group 3: Low-altitude Economy and Robotics - The eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) segment is a crucial part of the low-altitude economy, with a projected market size of 41 billion USD by 2040 in China, driven by the overlap with the automotive supply chain [6][109]. - The company has secured projects with leading domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers for flying car initiatives, with some projects expected to enter mass production by 2026 [6][109]. - The robotics segment is being developed with a focus on core components, leveraging existing technology and customer relationships to become a key supplier in the low-altitude economy and robotics industries [6][114]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.774 billion, 3.700 billion, and 4.795 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 108 million, 218 million, and 363 million yuan respectively, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [7][30]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 73, 36, and 22 times for 2025 to 2027, reflecting the company's potential for growth in the bearing sector and emerging industries [7][30].

Investment Highlights - In the fourth week of September, compulsory insurance reached 644,000 vehicles, with a week-on-week increase of 26.7% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0% [2][9] - The performance of segmented automotive sectors ranked as follows: SW commercial cargo vehicles (+3.8%) > SW passenger vehicles (+2.8%) > SW automotive (+1.7%) = SW automotive parts (+1.7%) > SW commercial passenger vehicles (-1.7%) [2][9] - The top five stocks covered this week with the highest gains were Songyuan Safety, Jingwei Hengrun-W, Silis, Xinquan Co., and Yadi Holdings [2][9] Core Industry Changes - Tesla released the FSD V14 version, expanding the model scale by 10 times and increasing the context length by 3 times; a simplified version of Model 3 and Model Y was launched in the U.S. market with a price reduction of $5,000 to cope with subsidy declines [3][9] - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 42,000 vehicles in September, a year-on-year increase of 95% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [3][9] - Li Auto delivered 34,000 vehicles in September, a year-on-year decrease of 37% but a month-on-month increase of 19% [3][9] - WeRide entered the third emirate of the UAE, Ras Al Khaimah, to begin trial operations of Robotaxi and Robobus [3][9] - 700 Yutong buses were delivered to Turkmenistan [3][9] - Xinquan Co. redeemed its "New 23 Convertible Bonds" ahead of schedule [3][9] Q4 Focus on AI Smart Vehicle Investment Opportunities - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads phase, with the electric vehicle (EV) dividend nearing its end and the smart vehicle sector in a "dark before dawn" stage, indicating a shift in investment logic [4][5] - Key investment opportunities include: - **AI Smart Vehicle Mainline**: Focus on Robotaxi and Robovan, with downstream application core stocks including Tesla, Xiaopeng Motors, and Qianli Technology [5][10] - **C-end Vehicle Sales Perspective**: Key players include Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, and the Huawei and Xiaomi ecosystems [5][10] - **Upstream Supply Chain Perspective**: Key players include BAIC Blue Valley, GAC Group, and SAIC Group for B-end vehicle manufacturing, and various core suppliers for components like chips and sensors [5][10] Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance in the A-share market ranked 10th this week, while the Hong Kong market ranked 12th [14] - The automotive sector has shown a general upward trend, with SW commercial cargo vehicles performing the best [19][20] - The overall vehicle insurance data for the week indicates a total of 644,000 vehicles, with new energy vehicles accounting for 368,000, reflecting a penetration rate of 57.2% [52]

Investment Highlights - The core point of the article is the analysis of the automotive industry performance in the third week of September, highlighting a significant increase in compulsory insurance registrations and the performance of various automotive sub-sectors [10][11]. Weekly Review - In the third week of September, 508,000 compulsory insurance registrations were recorded, representing a week-on-week increase of 12.9% and a month-on-month increase of 8.2% [10][50]. - The performance of automotive sub-sectors ranked as follows: SW motorcycles and others (+5.0%), SW auto parts (+0.4%), SW passenger cars (-0.9%), SW commercial cargo vehicles (-2.5%), and SW commercial passenger vehicles (-3.0%) [10][11]. - The top five stocks covered this week included Luxshare Precision, Songyuan Co., Xusheng Group, Changshu Automotive Trim, and Hengshuai Co., with notable increases [10][28]. Research Outcomes - The team released in-depth reports titled "AI Smart Car Era is [Product is King]", "Robotaxi is Reshaping the Automotive Travel Market", and "2025 Mainstream City NOA Test Drive Report - September Shanghai Edition" [3][10]. Industry Changes - Key developments include the anticipated early release of Tesla's FSD version 14, a partnership between XPeng and Alibaba Cloud for quantum encryption technology, the launch of the ideal i6 electric SUV priced at 249,800 yuan, and significant pre-orders for the H5 and M7 models [4][10][11]. Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. **AI Smart Car**: Focus on Robotaxi and Robovan industries, with key players including Tesla, XPeng, and various technology providers [6][12]. 2. **AI Robotics**: Emphasis on component suppliers such as Top Group and Junsheng Electronics [12]. 3. **Traditional Automotive**: Opportunities in buses, heavy trucks, and two-wheelers, with companies like Yutong Bus and China National Heavy Duty Truck [7][12]. Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the Hong Kong market this week, with motorcycles showing the best performance. Notable changes include the official listing of Chery in Hong Kong and the launch of new models by various manufacturers [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is a pivotal year for automotive intelligence, initiating a three-year cycle that will drive domestic electrification penetration rates to achieve a leap of 50%-80%+, reshaping the vehicle landscape [4][12]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The leading intelligent driving manufacturers have successfully implemented urban NOA experiences, including complex scenarios like roundabouts and U-turns, while enhancing high-level functions such as parking and scene understanding [4][12]. - The report includes both large-sample centralized road tests and small-sample in-depth road tests, evaluating the intelligent driving experiences of ten manufacturers, including XPeng, NIO, and Tesla, across various dimensions [5][12]. Group 2: Performance Improvements - Compared to Q1 2025, Q3 2025 saw improvements in intelligent driving capabilities across all manufacturers, with narrowing absolute gaps. The first-tier manufacturers achieved full-scene NOA and continued to optimize user experience [6][12]. - New entrants in self-research have shown impressive intelligent driving performance, with expectations for significant iterations in the next six months, potentially leading to substantial changes in overall experience [7][12]. Group 3: Specific Manufacturer Insights - XPeng, Huawei, and Li Auto remain in the first tier, with XPeng's self-developed Turing chip achieving 2250 TOPS of effective local computing power, enhancing driving logic [7][12]. - NIO and Xiaomi have rapidly caught up to near-first-tier levels, transitioning from "usable" to "well-usable" experiences, with NIO's world model exceeding expectations and Xiaomi enhancing complex scenario handling capabilities [8][12]. Group 4: Road Test Results - XPeng's average total takeover count was 1.51, indicating excellent overall performance, particularly in roundabout capabilities and efficiency [46][49]. - The average takeover count for the Huawei ADS-equipped vehicle was 0.60, with high scores in stability and comfort during driving [50][52]. - Li Auto's average takeover count was 1.47, demonstrating strong performance in roundabout scenarios and overall driving stability [53][56]. - NIO's average takeover count was 2.03, with good performance in roundabouts and a generally smooth driving experience [57][60]. - Xiaomi's average takeover count was 1.94, showing stable performance and the ability to handle complex scenarios effectively [60][62].

Core Viewpoints - Robotaxi represents a fundamental technological innovation that transforms the experience of shared mobility, reshaping the business model, competitive landscape, and profit distribution within the automotive shared mobility market [2][8] - The historical review of traditional taxis and ride-hailing services indicates that while ride-hailing alleviated some pain points, it did not fundamentally change the market dynamics, leading to over-supply and profitability challenges for drivers, taxi companies, and platforms [3][8] Robotaxi Breakthrough - Robotaxi serves as a crucial intelligent agent in the AI era, with its primary task being the safe transportation of passengers from point A to B. Its future potential lies in leveraging the "third mobile space" advantage, providing standardized driving experiences and allowing passengers to utilize travel time for work or consumption [4][8] - The commercialization of Robotaxi is driven by advancements in Level 4 autonomous driving technology, improved policy frameworks, and decreasing hardware costs. For instance, the BOM of Baidu's sixth-generation vehicle has dropped to 204,600 yuan, and the price of lidar sensors has fallen to around 200 USD [4][8] Market Size and Growth Projections - The Robotaxi market in China is projected to reach 83.1 billion yuan by 2030 (with an estimated 500,000 Robotaxis) and exceed 709.6 billion yuan by 2035 (with an estimated 2.5 million Robotaxis), indicating a significant growth potential in the shared mobility sector [4][8] Valuation Methodology - The valuation of Robotaxi should consider the "intelligent agent revenue valuation method," where the revenue-generating capacity is determined by the number of intelligent agents and their capability levels. The higher the capability level of a Robotaxi, the greater its revenue potential [5][9] Investment Targets in the Robotaxi Industry Chain - The Robotaxi industry chain is identified as the best investment theme in the AI smart vehicle sector over the next five years, categorized into several segments: 1. Integrated models: Tesla, XPeng Motors, Qianli Technology 2. Technology providers with operational revenue sharing: Horizon Robotics, Baidu, Pony.ai, WeRide 3. Traditional ride-hailing companies transitioning: Didi Chuxing, Cao Cao Mobility 4. Vehicle manufacturers: BAIC BluePark, GAC Group, SAIC Group 5. Core hardware suppliers: various companies providing sensors, chips, and other components [6][9]