Group 1: Electric Vehicle Market Insights - In December 2025, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 58.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.5 percentage points [2][6][14] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in December 2025 were 2.27 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 14.7% [11][14] - BYD maintained a market share of 25% in the NEV sector, while Geely's market share decreased to 11% [22][6] Group 2: Global Market Performance - In December 2025, Southeast Asia's NEV penetration rate exceeded expectations, with a significant contribution from VinFast, leading to a month-on-month increase [3][35] - Chinese automakers exported 641,000 passenger vehicles in December 2025, with 245,000 being NEVs, resulting in a NEV penetration rate of 38.2% [3][7] - The market share of Chinese brands in Southeast Asia reached 14.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points [51][62] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The old-for-new vehicle replacement policy is set to be implemented in January 2026, which is expected to stimulate demand in the passenger vehicle market [2][6] - The industry anticipates a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026, driven by the new policy and a shift in consumer sentiment [4][6] - The focus for domestic investments is on companies less sensitive to policy fluctuations, such as JAC Motors, and those expected to see growth in the high-end electric vehicle segment, including Geely and Great Wall Motors [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The bus industry represents China's automotive manufacturing sector becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to recreate a market equivalent to China in the next 3-5 years [4][12]. Group 1: Driving Factors for the Bus Industry - **Timing**: Aligns with the national strategy of "China's Special Valuation," with buses being a strong practitioner of the "Belt and Road" initiative, leveraging over a decade of overseas experience [4][12]. - **Geographical Advantage**: The technology and products of Chinese buses are at a world-class level, leading in new energy buses and competitive in traditional buses regarding cost-effectiveness and service [4][12]. - **Human Factors**: The end of the price war in the domestic market is expected to resonate positively, with demand recovering due to tourism and public transport renewal needs, potentially returning to 2019 levels [4][12]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook - The bus industry is expected to achieve new high profitability due to the absence of price wars, an oligopolistic market structure, better net profit margins in overseas markets, and declining lithium carbonate costs [5][16]. Group 3: Market Capitalization Potential - The short-term goal is to challenge the market capitalization peak from the last industry boom (2015-2017), while the long-term goal is to establish a new ceiling, witnessing the emergence of a true global bus leader [6][16]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - **Yutong Bus**: Identified as a "model student" with high growth and dividend attributes, with projected net profits of 4.94 billion, 5.92 billion, and 7.03 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20%, 20%, and 19% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [7][14]. - **King Long Automobile**: Considered the "fastest improving student," with significant profit elasticity, projected net profits of 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 182%, 45%, and 28%, also maintaining a "buy" rating [8][14]. Group 5: Industry Data Summary - In December 2025, the overall production of the bus industry in China was 59,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 3.94% and 8.56% respectively [19][20]. - The wholesale volume for December 2025 was 64,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 5.49% and 20.11% respectively [19][20]. - The terminal sales volume for December 2025 was 62,400 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 5.93% and 28.10% respectively [22].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to issue up to 12 million shares at a price of HKD 32.46 per share, raising approximately HKD 383 million, primarily for its Robotaxi business, despite an 8.97% discount from the closing price on January 27, 2026 [3]. Funding Utilization - Approximately 67.7% of the raised funds will be allocated to the development of domestic and international Robotaxi operations, focusing on purchasing customized vehicles, building operational systems, and ongoing core technology research [4]. - About 22.3% will be used to expand enterprise services, including operational investments, platform upgrades, and acquisitions like Weixing Technology and Zhejiang Geely Business Services [4]. - The remaining 10% will be reserved for working capital and general corporate purposes [4]. Strategic Importance of Robotaxi - The company has positioned Robotaxi as a core strategic focus for long-term development, aiming to deploy 100,000 fully customized Robotaxis by 2030, which is a key performance indicator in its new share incentive plan [5]. - The company has developed a unique "smart customized vehicle + smart driving technology + smart operation" model, leveraging data and algorithms accumulated over ten years in shared mobility to support Robotaxi commercialization [6]. Operational Progress - The second-generation Robotaxi has entered pilot operations, transitioning from human-monitored to unmanned operations through a remote safety service platform and intelligent management system [6]. - The fully customized model is set to debut this year, supported by a "green intelligent passage island" and replicable construction standards to create an automated support network [6]. - Internationally, the company has partnered with Abu Dhabi to promote autonomous driving technology and battery swapping systems [6]. Financial Projections - The company maintains revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at RMB 20.67 billion, RMB 26.24 billion, and RMB 32.37 billion, respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 0.9, 0.7, and 0.6 [7].

Group 1: Passenger Vehicle Insights - The industry subsidy policy has been implemented, and there is optimism for a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026, with a strong outlook for the passenger vehicle sector [3][27] - For the domestic market, focus on high-end electric vehicle companies that are less sensitive to policy changes, such as Jianghuai Automobile, and those expected to see growth in high-end offerings like Geely, Great Wall, BAIC Blue Valley, Seres, and Li Auto [3][27] - For exports, prioritize leading companies with established overseas systems and proven execution capabilities, recommending BYD, Great Wall, Chery, as well as Leap Motor, Xpeng, SAIC Motor, and Changan [3][27] Group 2: Heavy Truck Insights - In 2025, the wholesale volume reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, with domestic sales of 799,000 units (+32.8%) and exports of 341,000 units (+17.2%), exceeding initial market expectations [4][32] - The estimated number of operational heavy trucks meeting National IV standards or below was 690,000 at the beginning of 2025, expected to be reduced to 450,000-500,000 by the end of the year, with a total of 210,000 units eliminated throughout 2025 [4][32] - For 2026, domestic heavy truck sales are projected to reach 800,000-850,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3%, with continued recommendations for leading companies such as China National Heavy Duty Truck, Weichai Power, Foton Motor, FAW Jiefang, and CIMC Vehicles [4][32] Group 3: Bus Insights - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy in 2026 is slightly better than expected, with the continuation of subsidy levels rather than a reduction [4][32] - In 2025, bus sales were 29,000 units, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, indicating a gap from the reasonable replacement midpoint [4][32] - For 2026, a conservative estimate of 40,000 bus sales is projected, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, supported by the number of buses over eight years old awaiting replacement [4][32] Group 4: Motorcycle Insights - The motorcycle industry is expected to see total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles projected at 1.26 million units (+31%) [5][29] - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to grow slightly to 430,000 units (+5%) in 2026, while exports are anticipated to reach 830,000 units (+50%) [5][29] - The focus remains on leading companies benefiting from the sustained growth in large-displacement and export markets, recommending Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [5][29]

Investment Highlights - The SW auto parts index increased by 3.85% this week, ranking second in the SW auto sector, with a year-to-date increase of 9.12% [3][14] - The latest trading day PE (TTM) for SW auto parts is at the 90.08% historical percentile, while PB (LF) is at the 83.70% historical percentile [3][38] Robotics Sector Review - The Wande Robotics Index rose by 1.38% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 7.07%, underperforming the SW auto parts sector by 2.47% [4][40] - The latest trading day PE (TTM) for Wande Robotics is at the 94.65% historical percentile, and PB (LF) is at the 96.30% historical percentile [4][45] Core Coverage Stocks Weekly Performance - Notable weekly gains include: New Coordinates +36.30%, Minshi Group +25.33%, Daimai Co. +12.57%, Top Group +11.30%, and Xusheng Group +9.87% [6][52] Major Events This Week - Elon Musk announced plans to sell Tesla's humanoid robot to the public by the end of 2027 [7][46] - Yushu announced its humanoid robot sales for 2025, exceeding 5,500 units [8][46] Investment Recommendations - For auto parts, focus on structural opportunities by selecting product-oriented companies and those entering high-value sectors to increase ASP, with a priority on establishing capacities in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [9][57] - In robotics, seek certainty in opportunities, particularly with the anticipated release of Optimus V3 in Q1 2026, and monitor order timelines and application developments from domestic companies like Xiaopeng, Yushu, and Zhiyuan [9][57]

Core Viewpoints - The smart car index increased by 2.8% this week, while the index excluding Tesla decreased by 1.4%. As of January 23, 2026, the smart car index PS (TTM) is 14.0x, ranking in the 97th percentile since the beginning of 2023, while the index excluding Tesla is 6.8x, ranking in the 94th percentile during the same period [4][11][20]. Industry Core Changes - The introduction of the "Guangdong Province Artificial Intelligence Empowering High-Quality Development of Transportation Policy Measures" confirms breakthroughs in full-area autonomous driving in Nansha [5][11]. - Tesla launched a no-safety-driver Robotaxi service, with Cybercab arriving in Buffalo, New York for winter testing [5][11]. - Lightyear Technology announced advancements in autonomous driving technology and mass production of NOA-assisted driving, along with new solutions and platforms for L4 autonomous driving and logistics [5][11]. - As of January 23, 2026, Tesla's fleet consists of 225 vehicles, with a total of 7.39 billion miles driven under FSD, while Waymo has a daily active user count of 107,900 [5][11]. Current Investment Recommendations - The industry remains optimistic about the L4 RoboX mainline for 2026, favoring B-end software stocks over C-end hardware stocks. Recommended H-shares include Xpeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, Pony.ai/Wenyan Zhixing, Cao Cao Mobility, and Black Sesame Intelligence; A-shares include Qianli Technology, Desay SV, and Jingwei Hengrun [6][11]. - Downstream application-related stocks include: - Robotaxi perspective: Integrated models like Tesla and Xpeng Motors [6][11]. - Robovan perspective: Desay SV and Jiushi Intelligent/New Stone Technology [6][11]. - Other autonomous vehicle perspectives: Mining trucks (Xidi Zhijia), ports (Jingwei Hengrun), sanitation vehicles (Yingfeng Environment), and buses (Wenyan Zhixing) [6][11]. - Technology providers and revenue-sharing models: Horizon Robotics, Baidu, Pony.ai, Wenyan Zhixing, and Qianli Technology [6][11]. - Transformation of ride-hailing/taxi services: Didi, Cao Cao Mobility, Ruqi Mobility, public transport, and Jinjiang Online [6][11]. Upstream Supply Chain Related Stocks - B-end autonomous vehicle OEMs include BAIC BluePark, GAC Group, Jiangling Motors, and Tongli Co [7][11]. - Key upstream suppliers include: - Testing services (China Automotive Research and Development Center, China Automotive Technology and Research Center) [7][11]. - Chips (Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Intelligence) [7][11]. - Domain controllers (Desay SV, Jingwei Hengrun, Joyson Electronics, Huayang Group, and Kobot) [7][11]. - Sensors (Sunny Optical Technology, Hesai Technology, and Suteng Juchuang) [7][11]. - Steer-by-wire chassis (Bertel, Nexperia, Zhejiang Shibao) [7][11]. - Lighting (Xingyu Co) and glass (Fuyao Glass) [7][11].

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, founded in 2017 by Professor Li Zeshang, is a global leader in smart driving hard technology products, focusing on autonomous driving and V2X technology for closed scenarios like mining and enclosed parks [2][10] - The company has a strong management team led by Li Zeshang, with extensive experience in motion control and manufacturing [11][18] - The company's revenue has been growing rapidly since 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 74.62% from 2021 to 2024, driven by the expansion of its autonomous mining truck customer base [22] Group 2: Autonomous Mining Trucks - The company's "Yuan Mining" overall solution integrates multiple technologies, including smart driving and V2X, and is a platform product that can be promoted to other application scenarios [3][34] - Following a major mining accident in Inner Mongolia in 2023, national policies are pushing for automation in mining, aiming for at least 60% of coal mines to be intelligent by 2026 [3][40] - The market for autonomous mining trucks in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of RMB 396 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 65.3% from 2024 [50] Group 3: V2X Intelligent Transportation Solutions - The company is a leading provider of V2X intelligent transportation solutions, integrating advanced perception technology, sensor fusion algorithms, and V2X communication functions [4][75] - The V2X market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of RMB 238 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 50.9% from 2024 [79] - The company has successfully implemented V2X projects in multiple national pilot areas, establishing a strong market presence and influence [81] Group 4: Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by the continuous increase in autonomous mining truck orders, with projected revenues of RMB 10.78 billion, RMB 20.00 billion, and RMB 40.50 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [86] - The company is forecasted to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.03 billion in 2026 and RMB 6.27 billion in 2027, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [90] - The company is rated as a "buy" based on its strong growth potential in the autonomous mining truck sector and its competitive position in the V2X market [93]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the differences in the 2026 intelligentization trend compared to previous years, highlighting a stronger focus on AI logic and software opportunities rather than hardware and C-end sales [4][11][13] - Important catalysts for the Robox resonance in 2026 include model iterations from major players like Tesla and Xiaopeng, the promotion of RoboX services, and the expected IPOs of several companies in the sector [5][6][7] - The Robovan is successfully advancing in the express delivery scene, with approximately 27,000 units delivered, and is expected to penetrate other application scenarios such as fast-moving consumer goods and durable goods logistics [6][10] Group 2 - The investment recommendation for the current period is to remain optimistic about the L4 RoboX mainline in 2026 [7] - The Robovan supply chain includes key players such as Desay SV, Black Sesame Intelligence, and several companies planning to go public, indicating a robust ecosystem [8][10] - The article outlines the supportive policies from central and local governments that are expected to enhance the commercial scale and road rights for Robovan, creating a positive cycle of technology, policy, and market [25][30][32]

Investment Highlights - The passenger car sector is expected to see a recovery in Q1 2026 due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles that are less sensitive to policy changes, such as Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, BAIC Blue Valley, Seres, and Li Auto [2][7] - For exports, priority should be given to leading companies with established overseas systems and proven execution capabilities, including BYD, Great Wall Motors, Chery, Leap Motor, Xpeng, SAIC Motor, and Changan Automobile [2][7] Heavy Truck Sector - In 2025, wholesale heavy truck sales reached 1.144 million units, up 26.8% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 799,000 units, up 32.8%, and exports of 341,000 units, up 17.2% [3][37] - The expected domestic sales for heavy trucks in 2026 is optimistic, projected at 800,000 to 850,000 units, a 3% increase year-on-year [3][37] - Recommended leading heavy truck companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, Foton Motor, FAW Jiefang, and CIMC Vehicles [3][37] Bus Sector - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy in 2026 is slightly better than expected, with bus sales in 2025 projected at 38,000 units, a 25% increase year-on-year [3][37] - For 2026, bus sales are expected to grow to 40,000 units, a 5% increase year-on-year, supported by the number of buses over eight years old that need replacement [3][37] - Recommended leading bus companies include Yutong Bus, King Long Motor, and Zhongtong Bus [3][37] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle industry is projected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to reach 1.26 million units, a 31% increase [4][34] - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to grow slightly to 430,000 units in 2026, a 5% increase year-on-year, while exports are projected to reach 830,000 units, a 50% increase [4][34] - Recommended leading motorcycle companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [4][34]

Investment Highlights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 7.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with automotive business revenue at 4.217 billion yuan, up 12.9% year-on-year, while motorcycle business remains stable at 2.14 billion yuan [2] - Cash flow has improved, with a net operating cash flow of 525 million yuan in 2024, marking a turnaround from losses; the debt-to-asset ratio is 46.28%, significantly improved from the peak of 85.4% in 2019, indicating a gradual release of financial risk [2] - As the proportion of intelligent driving business increases, the company's profit structure is expected to continue to optimize [2] Strategic Transformation - Following its bankruptcy restructuring in 2020, the company established a stable control structure by introducing Geely Group, Chongqing Liangjiang Capital, and Megvii Technology, forming a "car company + government + technology" triad [3] - The company officially changed its name from "Lifan Technology" to "Qianli Technology" in 2025, marking its expansion from traditional manufacturing to smart mobility [3] - The management team, led by Megvii's founder Yin Qi, focuses on AI strategy, while former Huawei Car BU president Wang Jun oversees technology implementation, providing talent support for the "AI + car" strategy [3] Intelligent Driving Technology - The company has launched the Qianli Intelligent Driving 1.0 plan, covering multiple levels of intelligent driving functions, with plans to release an L3-level solution within six months and Robotaxi technology by H2 2026 [4] - The "Qianli Haohan" system, combined with Thor chips and multimodal large models, has already been mass-produced in models like Zeekr 9X, with technical indicators leading the industry [4] - The company leverages Geely's computing power center and AI-Drive large model to generate complex driving scenarios at a rate of 10,000 kilometers per hour, showcasing industry-leading data iteration efficiency [4] Business Synergy and Growth - The terminal business, particularly Ruiblue Automotive, focuses on the charging and swapping new energy sector, achieving sales of 38,131 units in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 176% [5] - The company is closely tied to Cao Cao Mobility, which is projected to have a 5.4% market share in the ride-hailing sector in 2024, ranking among the top three in the industry [5] - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for Cao Cao's customized vehicles is estimated to be 33%-40% lower than industry standards, enhancing profitability in the ride-hailing business [6] Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - The company forecasts revenues of 8.9 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, and 12.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PS valuations of 5.86, 4.89, and 4.06 times [7] - Given the successful AI transformation and expected growth in intelligent driving business, the company is rated as a "buy" for initial coverage [7] Motorcycle Business - The motorcycle business focuses on both fuel and new energy segments, with stable revenue and profitability, and an upward trend in revenue from 2020 to 2024 [43] - The company has launched high-displacement models and integrated smart features, with the motorcycle business expected to grow significantly, mirroring trends seen in Japan [46][49] Automotive Business - Qianli Technology's automotive segment, particularly through Ruiblue Automotive, is expected to see a significant increase in revenue share, reaching 59.96% of total revenue by 2024 [51] - The company has a strong export history, with fuel models seeing significant growth, and plans to expand its international market presence [59] Technology Business - The company aims to establish an "AI + car" ecosystem, with a focus on intelligent driving and smart cockpit technologies, leveraging partnerships with Geely and other industry players [65][106] - The establishment of Chongqing Qianli Intelligent Driving Technology Co., Ltd. in 2025 marks a significant step in integrating technology, capital, and policy resources for future growth in the intelligent driving sector [70][72]