Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intersection of asset scarcity and reshaped demand in the credit bond market, providing a strategic outlook for 2026 [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current environment is characterized by a scarcity of assets, which is influencing investment strategies and credit bond demand [2] - There is a notable shift in demand patterns, driven by changing economic conditions and investor preferences [2] Group 2: Credit Bond Strategy - The article outlines a strategic approach for credit bonds in 2026, emphasizing the need for careful selection and risk assessment [2] - It highlights the importance of understanding macroeconomic indicators and their impact on credit markets [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Potential investment opportunities are identified within specific sectors that are expected to perform well despite the overall market challenges [2] - The analysis suggests focusing on high-quality issuers and sectors with resilient fundamentals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall yield in the credit bond market has increased, with the performance of YP surpassing that of ER, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investor preferences [2] Group 1: Market Overview - The credit bond market experienced a general upward trend in yields during the week of December 1 to December 7, 2025, reflecting changing economic conditions and investor sentiment [2] - The performance of YP bonds was notably better than that of ER bonds, suggesting a potential preference shift among investors towards certain credit profiles [2] Group 2: Yield Trends - The report highlights specific yield movements, indicating that the overall yield curve has steepened, which may impact investment strategies and risk assessments in the credit market [2] - The increase in yields could be attributed to various macroeconomic factors, including inflation expectations and monetary policy adjustments [2]

什么是期权凸性套利? Q 由于种种原因,期权市场往往会出 现市场交易价格与其理论价格出现差异 的情况,为无风险套利 提供了机会。常 见的无风险套利有平价套利、箱体套 利、凸性套利等。那什么是期权的凸性 套利呢? 凸函数的定义 首先我们来看一个概念,什么叫凸函 数? C 1 C1 C2 L2 C3 K1 K2 K3 K 上 图 即 为 凸 函 数 , 其 中 |L 1 的 斜 率|>|L2的斜率| l|L1的斜率|=(C1-C2)/(K2- K1) lL2的斜率|=(C2-C3)/(K3- K2) (1-λ)C1+ λC3>C2 其 中 λ=(Κ2-Κ1)/(Κ3-Κ1) K1(C2-C3)/(K3- K2） 公式① 假 设 λ=(Κ2-Κ1)/(Κ3-Κ1)，其 中 K1<K2<K3 公式①可简化为:C2<(1-λ)C1+λC3 欧式期权、的凸函数特性 欧式认购期权和认洁期权的价格C是 关于行权价 K的凸函数,所以需满足凸 函数的特性: C1、C2、C3分别表示行权价为K1、 K2 、 K3 的 相 同 类 型 ( 同 为 认 购 或 认 沽）、相同到期日的期权价格 如 果 上 式 不 成 立 , 即 (1- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the completion of the issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special bonds for the replacement of hidden debts, indicating a significant step in local government debt management [2] Group 1: Special Bonds Issuance - A total of 2 trillion yuan in special bonds aimed at replacing hidden debts has been fully issued this year [2] - This issuance is part of a broader strategy to manage local government debt and improve financial stability [2] - The completion of this issuance is expected to have positive implications for local government financing and infrastructure projects [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight rebound this week, but the average daily trading volume continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index still not recovering from the gap created on November 21 [1] - The performance of various sectors showed that non-ferrous metals, communications, and defense industries led the gains, while media, real estate, and beauty care sectors faced declines [1] - The national bond market saw a downward trend, with government bonds performing worse than credit bonds, and long-term bonds significantly weakened [1] Stock Market Insights - Despite the market's recent uptick, trading volumes remain low, and indices are still within a consolidation range. The current market sentiment is cautious, with a preference for long-term trend stocks and a strategy of buying on dips [4] - The market is expected to maintain a consolidation phase as stronger industry catalysts are needed to drive significant upward movement [4] Bond Market Analysis - Short-term bearish sentiment prevails in the bond market, with a focus on short-term yield strategies. The macro environment of low interest rates is likely to persist, and inflation remains a key variable to monitor [5] - The bond market is anticipated to experience increased volatility and reduced yield space in the future [5] Commodity Market Trends - Gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with a strategy of "buying on dips" recommended within the current trading range. Attention should be paid to policy signals from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and inflation data [6] - The commodity market saw the South China Commodity Index rise by 0.97%, with notable increases in precious metals and non-ferrous commodities [34] Overseas Market Developments - The U.S. stock market showed positive earnings reports, with the S&P 500 exceeding revenue expectations by approximately 2%. The AI industry trend remains strong, and the Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle, indicating no significant risks for U.S. equities [7] - Investors are encouraged to consider diversified overseas investments through QDII funds, as daily subscription limits continue to decrease [7]

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略】周度研究成果（12.1-12.7) 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the insurance sector during the "opening season" and provides insights into the spring market trends, indicating potential investment opportunities in this area [2]. Group 1: Insurance Sector Performance - The insurance industry has shown strong growth, with a notable increase in premiums collected during the opening season, reflecting a positive market sentiment [2]. - Specific data indicates that the total premium income for the insurance sector reached a significant milestone, highlighting the sector's resilience and growth potential [2]. Group 2: Spring Market Trends - The article outlines the emerging trends in the spring market, suggesting that investor confidence is gradually returning, which could lead to a bullish market phase [2]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring key economic indicators that may influence market movements in the upcoming months [2].

● 免责声明 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本内容不构成任何投资建议。投 资者不应以该等信息取代其独立判断或仅根据该等信息做出 决策。申万宏源对这些信息的准确性或完整性不作保证，亦 不对因使用该等信息而引发或可能引游躲损豢秃拐չ-α葛磊 (2 今日申 ... 今日中签缴 .. 股 纳百川 301667 深 创 22.63 发行/行业市盈率 28.7/28.71 申购上限 0.65万股 发行价(元) 股 优迅股份 787807 用 困 51.66 发行/行业市盈率 60.27/58.09 申购上限 0.45万股 发行价(元) 今日无新债 ...

Group 1 - The main point of the article highlights that in the past two weeks, the net outflow of main funds reached 18.386 billion yuan, with the automotive, building materials, and home appliances sectors seeing the highest net inflows, while the computer, media, and power equipment sectors experienced the largest net outflows [5][6][8]. Group 2 - The current margin trading balance is 2.483869 trillion yuan, showing a decrease of 0.31% from the previous period, with a financing balance of 2.466489 trillion yuan and a securities lending balance of 173.81 billion yuan [5][13]. - The average daily trading volume for margin trading in this period was 172.602 billion yuan, which is a decline of 16.64% compared to the previous period [5][14]. - The top three industries for net margin buying were communication, electronics, and national defense, while the top three for net margin selling were computer, media, and automotive [5][15]. Group 3 - In terms of market performance, the number of declining stocks exceeded that of rising stocks in the past two weeks, with only the food and beverage and banking sectors showing gains, while the non-bank financial, machinery equipment, and media sectors had the largest declines [5][20][26]. Group 4 - The overall strength analysis score for all A-shares was 6.20, with the CSI 300 at 5.61, the ChiNext at 6.32, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 6.55, indicating a neutral to strong market condition [5][29][30].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are leading market fluctuations, with a significant rise in market anticipation for a December rate cut following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams on November 21 [1] - The A-share market's recent rebound over the past two weeks is partially attributed to these expectations, although the upcoming Fed announcement will shift market focus to domestic economic conditions and policy expectations [1] - Last week, the market experienced back-and-forth movements, contending around the 60-day moving average, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing below this average while the Shenzhen Component Index managed to close above it [1] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume for both markets last week was approximately 1.68 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week [1] - Market hotspots were primarily concentrated in upstream resources, military industry, and telecommunications sectors, with large-cap blue-chip stocks leading the gains while technology stocks showed some divergence [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index underwent a rapid adjustment in mid-November but found support above the early October low, gradually stabilizing and rebounding, indicating that the repair process may not be over yet as there are still gaps to fill above [1]