Group 1 - Short-term sentiment remains active, while mid-term sentiment is diverging; a significant opportunity will arise when short to mid-term sentiment reaches a freezing point, which has not yet occurred [1] - The leading index, the ChiNext Index, appears to have reversed and established a new trend, with trading volume gradually shrinking; the short-term average volume has been below the mid-term average for a month [2] - One of the leading stocks, Victory Technology, has broken below the 50-day moving average and is about to undergo a convex reversal [3] Group 2 - The strength of the banking, insurance, and securities sectors is too weak, remaining under pressure from the 50-day moving average, making sustained upward movement unlikely [3] - The innovative drug sector is also under convex pressure, with occasional rebounds expected to be difficult to sustain [3] - The photovoltaic equipment sector shows a structured expansion in trading volume, with active accumulation at the bottom; the Relative Strength Ratio (RSR) has turned positive, indicating it is worth following [3]

Group 1 - The article suggests that the recent market rebound is merely a temporary reaction after breaking through a significant moving average, indicating a lack of substantial change in the overall market framework [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the market will experience a narrow range or a deep pullback, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a defensive position to await favorable conditions [3] - From the perspective of a specific trading theory, the current market situation is identified as a critical exit point for traders, highlighting the need to understand momentum changes rather than fixating on specific trading signals [4] Group 2 - There are no signs indicating the end of the current market adjustment; instead, it appears that the adjustment phase has just begun, suggesting a need for patience and strategic accumulation [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous learning and reflection during challenging market conditions, advocating for a proactive approach to market analysis [5]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of New Kai Lai in the semiconductor industry could signify a strategic shift, particularly if it successfully advances to 3nm technology, potentially altering the balance of power in the semiconductor supply chain and reducing Western control over critical technologies [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The breakthrough in 3nm technology by New Kai Lai would alleviate the bottleneck in lithography, which is crucial for semiconductor manufacturing, thereby enhancing the competitive position of Eastern companies [1] - New Kai Lai's rise is expected to have a long-term positive impact on the upstream supply chain of equipment components and semiconductor manufacturing materials [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Capabilities - Domestic computing power demand has been suppressed due to a lack of high-end chips, which in turn is caused by insufficient advanced manufacturing capabilities [1] - If high-end manufacturing capabilities improve rapidly, similar to Western advancements, the release of computing power in the domestic market could be significant [1] Group 3: Recent Developments - At the 2025 SEMICON China exhibition, New Kai Lai introduced the ALD "Ali Mountain" atomic layer deposition equipment for sub-5nm film deposition and the Wuyishan series etching equipment supporting advanced processes below 5nm [1] - New Kai Lai's self-developed SAQP technology, in collaboration with Huawei's HiSilicon, has improved the precision of DUV lithography machines by 300%, achieving 5nm processes [1] - A collaboration with SMIC has led to the trial production of 5nm logic chips, achieving a wafer yield of 85%, which is close to TSMC's EUV process yield of 90% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the potential investment opportunities in the power grid equipment sector, highlighting specific companies that are showing strong performance and growth potential despite a generally bearish market outlook [2][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Siyuan Electric is identified as a leading stock in the power grid equipment sector, demonstrating stable high growth over four consecutive quarters, with a significant price-volume signal indicating a strong upward trend since July [2]. - TBEA (特变电工) is noted for its delayed but intense price-volume structure, with a recent fundamental reversal suggesting potential for further growth [3]. - Guorui Nandian, the largest company by market capitalization in the sector, is currently in a bottom accumulation phase, indicating potential for future movement [4]. Group 2: Market Signals - The article suggests that a market pullback could present an excellent entry point for investors, as it may confirm a breakout to new highs for the sector [5][6]. - Technical signals across various stocks in the sector show similar characteristics, indicating a broader trend that could be beneficial for investors [5]. Group 3: Industry Overview - The article discusses the overall state of the power grid equipment sector, suggesting that it is on the verge of a significant upward movement, with key technical signals marking potential entry points for investors [6][7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the current market sentiment, indicating a sense of impending danger and volatility, particularly related to trade wars and their impact on market dynamics [1][2] - It emphasizes the importance of momentum signals in predicting market movements, suggesting that these signals often precede significant market events or news [2] - The author notes a historical pattern where mid-term adjustments typically take around 3 to 5 months, although this is not guaranteed and should be observed as the situation evolves [2] Group 2 - The article highlights a shift from traditional MACD indicators to Larry Williams' volume-price analysis (VAD), suggesting that volume information is as critical as price in understanding market movements [2] - It reflects on human behavior in trading, where traders often struggle to act rationally despite knowing the market dynamics, leading to emotional decision-making [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that technical analysis is not inherently useless; rather, it is often misapplied or misunderstood. The current market signals indicate increasing risks, necessitating a reduction in stock holdings and positions [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent market movements show a divergence between the strong performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the underlying technical indicators, suggesting a potential top divergence [1]. - The market's support relies heavily on specific sectors such as computing power, energy storage, and metals. A decline in these sectors could lead to significant market downturns [1]. - The brokerage sector is described as dependent on retail investor sentiment, with overall trading volume indicating a lack of substantial growth potential [1]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The article notes that despite a recent volume breakout in the Shanghai Composite Index, there are concerns about the sustainability of this upward movement due to underlying divergence signals [1]. - The average stock price index shows a divergence in volume and price, indicating a potential peak in the near term [1]. - Market sentiment remains low, with most stocks experiencing downward pressure, while only a few sectors and stocks continue to show strength [1]. Group 3: Psychological Factors - Many investors are trapped in a mindset of expecting new leading sectors to emerge quickly, but the reality is that new leaders often arise from periods of correction [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the metals and chemicals industry, emphasizing that these sectors typically perform well during the second phase of a bull market, driven by monetary easing and inflation expectations, as well as demand growth from economic recovery [4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The metals and chemicals sectors are identified as strong cyclical industries that usually do not miss out on bull markets, particularly during the second phase of such markets [4]. - Recent financial reports indicate a recovery in performance for many companies within these sectors, suggesting a positive trend in earnings [4]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Retail investors are cautioned against impulsive buying during market peaks, as this can lead to increased stress and potential losses [3]. - The article highlights the importance of reflecting on missed opportunities, particularly during initial entry points and during low-volume pullbacks [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the main themes in the market are likely to continue evolving, with fluctuations and rotations occurring within established themes rather than new ones emerging [4]. - It suggests that the current market phase is characterized by residual momentum, indicating that while there may be opportunities, they are part of a broader cyclical pattern [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses the correlation between stock price movements and earnings performance, emphasizing the importance of understanding the details of each phase in the four-stage theory of market cycles [1][2] - Historical experiences indicate that the first and third phases are characterized by speculative trading, while the second phase focuses on earnings growth, and the fourth phase highlights the advantages of dividends and cross-market arbitrage [1][2] - The current market phase, starting from June 8, has shifted towards a focus on companies with solid earnings, moving away from speculative stocks that have been historically unprofitable [1] Group 2 - The second phase of the economic cycle is a response to recovery, with the first recovering industries receiving the most attention [2] - The third phase reflects the residual effects of economic prosperity, where high-growth earnings reports continue, but core company stock prices may have peaked, leading investors to seek undervalued companies [2] - The fourth phase sees a shift towards stability, with a preference for high-dividend stocks and cross-market arbitrage as investors become more risk-averse [2]

这类VCP结构也被称为上升三角形收敛，是看多结构。 主板指数能雕刻得这么标准，也算是相当的厉害。 如果按照这个图形发展，大的突变节点应该在节后不久的某一天，那一天应该是缩量很厉害。 ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a serious adjustment, with diminishing profit effects across previously leading sectors, indicating a potential cycle of rebirth after a thorough evaluation [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is undergoing a horizontal structure after a clear upward trend, with a slight divergence at the 3899.96 point [3] - The CSI A500 index has shown a three-top divergence structure, historically a strong bearish signal [4] - The ChiNext Index also exhibits a three-top divergence, suggesting similar bearish implications [5] Sector Analysis - The leading sector, the network connection and distribution sector, has shown a decline in momentum despite previous highs, indicating a phase of profit-taking [6] - The PCB sector lacks a divergence structure but shows increasing bearish pressure, suggesting potential profit-taking risks [7] - The consumer electronics sector, led by major stocks like Hon Hai Precision Industry and Luxshare Precision, has shown a slight downturn after a strong performance [7] - The lithium battery equipment sector has reached a three-top divergence, indicating a poor risk-reward ratio [8] - The inverter sector, particularly led by Sungrow Power Supply, is nearing its peak performance [10] - The semiconductor equipment sector has not yet shown divergence but is entering a critical phase, suggesting reduced risk-reward expectations [11] - The gaming sector has also reached a divergence stage, with recent leading stocks showing bearish signs [13] - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a three-top divergence, although some companies are seeing performance reversals and increased orders [14] Technical Indicators - The momentum indicators for leading and heavyweight stocks are showing signs of decline, indicating a potential end to the upward trend [15] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to have a limited pullback, possibly forming a VCP structure, with optimistic expectations for price consolidation around key moving averages [15]