嘲笑技术分析的人和嘲笑价值投资的人一样狭隘，没有什么区别，都是思维僵化、认知封闭的毛病。而 同在技术分析范畴的裸K分析派和指标分析派之间又相互瞧不起，文人相轻何其怪哉，殊不知量化的收 割机已经在你头顶隆隆作响。 流行俗语往往蕴含尖刻洞见，比如有云：指标是股价走出来的结果，股价是因指标是果，不是指标推动 了股价，而是股价带着指标走。这话有没有道理？当然有道理，而且十分正确。这就有了裸K派。 工具是什么，工具是连接主客观的纽带，是人类认知世界和改造世界的纽带，人类正是因为懂得使用工 具才进化成为人类。这好像是高中时候哲学课的知识。 你用裸K分析和用其它指标分析，就好比中医用手搭脉，西医用心电图的差别。但有一点相同：多少得 用点工具或者手段。指标的作用是测量，通过测量认知现状，通过认知现状触发主观能动性，再与客体 互动，仅此而已。 又有一句俗语说：市场永远是对的。这句话有没有道理，当然有道理，深不深刻，当然深刻。但是，再 往里想想，市场是一个绝对的客观真理吗？显然，这也不能，为什么，因为市场也无非是众多主观的总 和。 所以，主客本是一体，万物皆有心，工具是纽带。 接着坐在金字塔尖的神秘资金笑了，说：什么昨日流进今日 ...

Core Viewpoint - Value investing is often misunderstood, yet it remains effective in the A-share market, with a focus on unique identification of investment targets [1] Group 1: Value Investing Principles - The four essential components of traditional value investing are dividend yield, free cash flow, economic moat, and margin of safety [1] - Misinterpretation of value investing often leads to incorrect applications, such as equating long-term holding with value investing [1] Group 2: Timing Challenges in Value Investing - The RSR indicator can provide valuable timing references for value investing, particularly in identifying early-stage investment opportunities [4][7] - Bank stocks have shown significant performance, with the RSR value turning positive since the new leadership, indicating a broad market rally in this sector [1] Group 3: Case Studies of Value Stocks - Agricultural Bank of China serves as an example of a high-dividend stock that aligns with traditional value investing principles [2] - China Shenhua, a coal monopoly, is highlighted for its strong market position and value investment characteristics [4] - Huaneng Water Power and Yangtze Power are noted as key players in the electric power industry, fitting the value investment model [5] - Gree Electric Appliances is identified as a nearly perfect value investment target, with the RSR indicator clearly signaling optimal profit segments [6] - Yutong Bus is recognized as a high-dividend stock, though it exhibits stronger cyclicality, impacting its value investment appeal [8] - China Pacific Insurance shows a clear directional signal from the RSR during bearish market conditions, indicating potential for future growth [9] Group 4: Challenges of Value Investing - Value stocks often experience prolonged periods of stagnation, making it difficult for investors to endure the waiting period for significant trends [10] - The necessity of using appropriate indicators to assist in timing decisions is emphasized to improve investment efficiency [10]

本周最后的答案是向下破位缩量，走了第三条路，将开始持续阴跌，期间弱小反弹忽略，等待情绪三线 进入冰点以后再说。 60分钟级别VAD动量负反馈加速，15分钟级别抵抗无效。大A果然是能不乐观尽量不乐观哈。 ...

风，开始往科技股这边吹。昨天芯片股就开始短阳遍地红，今天机器人这块也有点这意思，龙头双林股 份放量长阳，但50均线的凸形反压不容易突破，看它后面是否走出3C结构。 这是要一步到位的节奏呀。上午情绪三线已经彻底粘合，指数离缺口只剩一口气的距离，如果再砸一根 阴线就掉进冰点了。 IPO开闸这件事看上去是老套路，但不知新意能不能出得来，如果真能引入一些伟大的创新型公司，不 让这些公司外流，倒也不失为一件好事，我大A问题之一就是没有伟大的公司，只有一大堆特能圈钱且 特能减持的公司。 芯片股昨天很多低吸买点，但RSR满足强势的只有三只，其中炬芯科技今天涨幅最大。 芯片股的特点是，长阳之后容易萎靡，不应期较长，所以芯片股尽量做低吸。SOC细分的几只高速成长 票整体态势还是保持强势的。 ...

Group 1 - The article indicates that the sentiment three-line has dropped and is consolidating, with signs of a potential bottoming out in the market [1] - The rebound is expected to be limited, likely not exceeding the upper boundary of the current oscillation structure, suggesting a second type of structure is developing [1] - The possibility of a 3T VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) is highlighted, indicating a small top formation followed by a pullback before a potential breakout [1] Group 2 - There is a noted potential for further downside tomorrow, as the 15-minute VAD (Volume Accumulation Distribution) divergence is not very clear, although MACD divergence is present but still weak [1] - Stock performance is expected to show significant divergence, with a strategy of low buying to capture rebounds being recommended [1] - It is advised to maintain a lighter position, with larger opportunities likely arising only when the sentiment three-line drops to an extreme low, which may take time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the current market sentiment indicates a potential rebound opportunity, with a focus on the gradual decline in trading volume supporting this outlook [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The sentiment indicator has shown a decline and is expected to create a high-probability rebound opportunity in the near future [1]. - The market is currently exhibiting a pattern that aligns with a previously anticipated gradual decline, as the slope of trading volume changes does not support a sharp daily drop [1]. - The article discusses two potential structural evolutions for the market, leaning towards the second scenario outlined in a previous analysis [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The article notes a slight convergence in the RS divergence value, which has since expanded, indicating positive momentum accumulation that may require additional time to fully charge [1]. - A recent bullish candlestick was met with resistance at the 50-day moving average, a common reversal point, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend [1]. - The article references a specific technical analysis concept, indicating that the market is likely to continue its decline until a momentum divergence aligns with sentiment indicators [1]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The article highlights three sectors: innovative pharmaceuticals, gold, and collectibles (specifically Pop Mart), suggesting that these areas are likely to face significant downturns as media hype peaks [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategies of chasing high and buying low in trading, emphasizing that both approaches can be complementary and effective depending on market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Breakthrough Trading Strategies - Buying breakthroughs should occur at key positions, particularly during significant structural breakouts, which can lead to substantial gains [2][7]. - The concept of "strong in seeking low" refers to identifying opportunities during minor pullbacks in a strong upward trend, characterized by low volume and volatility [3][7]. - Successful breakthrough trading relies on three fundamental conditions: structure, trading volume, and strength value, which are essential for understanding breakthrough buying methods [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Examples - Recent examples from the gaming sector illustrate successful breakthroughs, with companies like JiBit achieving significant volume increases and breaking through long-term resistance levels [1][2]. - The article highlights the importance of selecting the right sectors and stocks, noting that even in a weak overall market, strong sectors can still perform well [7]. - The rarity of good breakout points necessitates quick action when they appear, while low-buy opportunities are more frequent, requiring a strategic approach to avoid losses in a prolonged downtrend [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the characteristics of stocks that have experienced significant rebounds since April 8, highlighting the importance of analyzing price movements and trading metrics to identify potential investment opportunities. Group 1: Stock Selection Criteria - A stock screening tool was developed to identify stocks with a price increase greater than 100% between their 50-day low and high, with the condition that the low price occurred further in the past than the high price [1]. - A pool of 143 stocks was created from the screening, including ST stocks, to analyze their performance [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Key performance indicators were established, including maximum price increase, prior drawdown, and average turnover rate [1]. - The maximum price increase is calculated as ((HHV(C,N)/LLV(C,N)-1)*100), while prior drawdown is defined as the percentage change from the average stock price index's peak in March to April 8 [1]. Group 3: Stock Characteristics - Among the stocks with the largest price increases, only 15 had a prior drawdown greater than 33%, while 30 stocks showed positive price movements during the market's downturn [2]. - This indicates that stocks with smaller drawdowns or those that rose against the market trend are more likely to achieve significant price increases [2]. Group 4: Turnover Rate Analysis - Of the stocks with the largest price increases, 66 had a 50-day average turnover rate greater than 10%, while 77 had a turnover rate below 10% [3]. - The analysis suggests that lower turnover stocks slightly dominate, but a more accurate assessment would require isolating the main upward trend before averaging [3]. - Approximately 20 stocks exhibit clear institutional trading styles, indicating that most strong stocks are being controlled by trading strategies rather than fundamental investment [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses the formation of a short-term market top and strategies to avoid being trapped in daily fluctuations [1] - Emotional indicators have shown a divergence from high levels, indicating a potential short-term high probability point within the next three days [1] - Momentum divergence has shifted from negative to positive, suggesting that upward momentum is being stored, which may lead to a price increase once the momentum releases [1] Group 2 - The market has finally started to decline, emphasizing the importance of using indicators to eliminate subjective biases [2]

像下图创业板这种下降压制通道结构，迟早要被一种有力的方式突破的： 第二种：箱体结构。如下图，在蓝色方框空间内往返运动，对称震荡，或者VCP波动收缩，2T~3T可能 性较大。 总之，这两种都是强势攻击中继形态。至于为什么认为出现大幅度回撤的可能性较小，除了上面提到的 量比斜率变缓，时间也进入了一阶段横盘8~10个月的历史统计窗口末端，另外，有领涨行业板块已经 率先突破9.24高点，渐已形成主升。 前面更新有提到，由于量比斜率变缓，所以价格波动率也大致会降低，那么后续会怎么发展呢，从最近 三天的表现结合之前的评估结论，本ID做如下两种推演： 第一种：碟形结构。就如下图平均股价指数，红色小框范围的窄幅区间继续后移，使蓝色方框内空间构 成扁平的碟形横盘，也就是压扁之后的杯柄形态； ...