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代建双周报 | 远洋建管代建广州南香雅居项目首开热销;龙湖龙智造纾困项目成都西璟台交付(2025.5.10-5.23)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-05-24 01:28
Group 1 - Wuhan Urban Construction Group aims to enhance cooperation with Huangpi District in areas such as comprehensive development, infrastructure construction, industrial transformation, and urban function improvement, focusing on high-quality residential development and urban renewal [2] - Greentown Management has reached a strategic cooperation agreement with Daduqiao District in Chongqing, indicating a commitment to urban development projects [1][6] - Longfor's Longzhizao has signed a contract for the construction of a project in Bao'an District, Shenzhen, showcasing its expansion in the construction sector [1] Group 2 - Longfor's Longzhizao has successfully delivered the Chengdu Xijingtai project, which had been stalled for eight years, involving 852 creditors and 857 undelivered properties [7] - The Guangzhou Nanxiang Yaju project by Yuanyang Construction Management achieved strong sales shortly after its opening, with over 986 visits and more than 3,000 viewings of the model room [8] - The total land area for the project managed by Greentown Management in Shijiazhuang is approximately 69,200 square meters, with a floor price of 10,253 yuan per square meter [6]
海外置业③ | 阿布扎比依托“钞”能力,打造下一个投资热点地区
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-05-23 09:06
Group 1 - Abu Dhabi has become a strategic hub for global capital due to economic transformation, population vitality, forward-looking planning, and real estate appreciation potential [1][32] - The emirate's GDP has consistently remained above 1 trillion dirhams post-pandemic, with growth rates between 3% and 4% [4] - Key industries contributing to the non-oil economy include manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, finance and insurance, and real estate, with manufacturing and construction seeing a 1.5 percentage point increase in contribution from 2021 to 2024 [4] Group 2 - The population of Abu Dhabi has grown significantly from 940,000 in 1995 to 3.79 million in 2023, reflecting the emirate's increasing attractiveness [7] - The age demographic shows that 66% of the population is aged between 25 and 54, with a median age of 33, indicating a youthful population driven by economic development [8][10] - Approximately 80% of the population consists of immigrants, with a diverse range of skilled professionals attracted by the emirate's economic diversification [10] Group 3 - The "2030 Plan" aims to create a compact, transit-oriented, smart, and green sustainable city, with goals for high-density mixed development and a target of 60% renewable energy by 2030 [14] - The real estate market is active, with foreign buyers favoring high-value properties; in 2024, new residential transactions are projected to reach 41.941 billion dirhams, with prices increasing by over 10% [18][20] Group 4 - Leading companies in Abu Dhabi's real estate sector include Aldar Properties, Modon Holding, and Bloom Holding, all benefiting from government support and strong financial health [25][27][30] - Aldar Properties reported a total sales revenue of 33.6 billion dirhams in 2024, a 20% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from high-end community developments [25] - Modon Holding has established a strong presence in the residential market, leveraging government resources and sustainable technology to develop notable projects [27]
半月追踪 | 5月汉宁等来访、认购好于去年同期
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-05-23 09:06
从5月当前新房成交累计同比来看,仍可保持与去年持平走势,二季度或将延续止跌企稳态势。 我们选择了部分典型城市,大体分为以下三类: 第一类为短期内热度较高的核心一二线城市,以北京、上海、深圳、成都、杭州为典型代表,各城市项目 去化率受新盘供给质量影响较大, 5 月以来城市间分化持续加剧; 第二类武汉、南京等弱复苏类城市,春节之后市场稳步修复,五一假期周迎来一波来访小高潮后稳步回 落,但客户转化率仍高于 3-4 月平均水平; 第三类还有部分城市诸如天津、郑州、西安等,来访、认购稳步回落,客户转化率走低,购房观望情绪依 旧浓厚,短期来看增长后劲略显不足。 热点城市受供给影响加速分化 沪深蓉开盘"提质缩量"维稳市场 02 热点城市受新盘供给质量影响,市场热度加速分化,深圳、成都等供应节制,放缓推盘进度,提升了推盘 质量,适销对路楼盘入市一定程度上提升了居民购房积极性;加之去年三季度末新政利好叠加项目促销, 也使得市场热度高位持稳。相较而言,北京、杭州等5月以来开盘质量一般,因而项目平均去化率高位回 落,不及去年同期。 ◎ 文 / 俞倩倩 2025年以来整体楼市延续止跌企稳走势,3-4月传统"小阳春"后,目前5月已度过 ...
专题 | 2024年房企盈利能力报告——行业毛利率下降至10%,72%房企净利润亏损
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-05-23 09:06
导语 1 、 营业收入下降17%至34579亿,毛利润下降33% 2024年,房地产调控政策延续宽松基调,政策着力点更聚焦于去库存。尽管政策宽松,但市场信心和预期尚未根本 恢复,房地产市场仍在深度调整,2024年全国新建商品房销售额同比继续下降17%。在此背景下,企业整体结算规 模相应受到影响,住宅开发业务的利润空间仍在收窄。 2024年行业典型上市房企 1 整体实现营业收入34579亿元,同比下降17% ;营业成本30619亿元,同比下降15%。 营业收入在2023年短暂回升后,2024年再次出现加速下滑态势。 从毛利润来看,从2021年开始就保持下滑趋势,2024年典型上市房企实现毛利润3446亿元,同比下滑33%,下滑幅 度为历年较高。 2024年确认存货跌价损失1677亿,相比2023年大幅提升26%。 ◎ 文 / 房玲、易天宇 2024年,中国房地产调控政策延续宽松基调,政策着力点更聚焦于去库存。尽管政策宽松,但房地产市场整体依然 维持底部震荡。据统计局数据,2024年,全国新建商品房销售面积97385万平方米,比上年下降12.9%,新建商品 房销售额96750亿元,下降17.1%。 同时市场销售价 ...
海外置业② | 迪拜房地产市场交易规模与驱动因素
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-05-22 08:53
Core Viewpoint - The Dubai real estate market is experiencing significant growth in transaction volume and value, driven by a young and predominantly expatriate population, alongside a diversified economy that supports various sectors including tourism and real estate [2][25][34]. Group 1: Market Status - The Dubai real estate market has shown a robust recovery post-pandemic, with a 38% increase in transaction volume and over 50% growth in transaction value in 2023. In 2024, the market is expected to reach a record 181,000 transactions, a 36.5% year-on-year increase, with a total transaction value of 522.5 billion dirhams, up 27.3% [2][4]. - The real estate prices in Dubai are influenced by economic diversification, infrastructure development, and market fluctuations, maintaining stability after rapid growth [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Emaar Properties holds a significant market share, supported by government backing and a project delivery rate exceeding 95%. In 2024, Emaar achieved contract sales of 65.4 billion dirhams (approximately 17.8 billion USD), marking a 75% increase [10][11]. - Nakheel, a subsidiary of Dubai Holding, focuses on large-scale projects like Palm Island and World Islands, leveraging government support and land reserves in coastal growth areas [13]. - Damac Properties, a leading private developer, emphasizes high-end residential and mixed-use community developments, maintaining a strong market presence through innovative projects [15]. Group 3: Economic Foundation - Dubai's economy is diversifying effectively, with tourism, trade, finance, and real estate becoming key growth drivers. The tourism sector is rebounding, with international overnight visitors reaching 18.72 million in 2024, a 9% increase, including a 31% rise in Chinese tourists [18][19]. - The real estate sector contributes approximately 8% to Dubai's GDP, playing a crucial role in economic growth, investment attraction, and job creation [20]. Group 4: Population Support - The population of Dubai is projected to reach 3.74 million by 2024, with a youthful demographic where individuals aged 30-34 represent the largest group [25]. - Expatriates make up 92% of the population, with significant representation from South Asia and Southeast Asia, and a growing number of Chinese nationals seeking opportunities in Dubai [26]. Group 5: Planning and Future Outlook - Dubai's 2040 urban plan includes the development of two new city centers, Expo Center and Dubai Silicon Oasis, aimed at attracting high-tech talent and fostering innovation [29][32]. - The real estate strategy aims to double the sector's contribution to GDP by 2033, increasing transaction values from 522.5 billion dirhams in 2024 to 1 trillion dirhams [33].
2025房地产上市公司测评研究报告发布
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-05-22 08:53
Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Real Estate Listed Companies Evaluation Research" report highlights a significant decline in the performance of listed real estate companies in China, with key metrics such as total assets, revenue, and profitability showing negative trends, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry [1][19][40]. Evaluation Results - The evaluation covers eight major aspects with 20 secondary indicators and 44 tertiary indicators, making it one of the most important professional assessments of listed real estate companies in China [1]. - The report indicates that the average total asset scale of listed real estate companies in 2024 was 1334.04 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 6.66% [19][27]. - The average revenue from real estate development for listed companies was 228.49 billion, down 11.42% year-on-year, reflecting a significant contraction in the market [19][27]. Financial Performance - The average net profit for listed real estate companies was -1.37 billion, marking a 114.35% year-on-year decline, with the net profit margin turning negative for the first time [19][23][27]. - The average net asset return rate decreased to 0.24%, down 1.18 percentage points from the previous year, indicating reduced profitability [19][23][27]. Market Trends - The report notes that the real estate market in 2024 continued to experience a downward trend, with new residential sales area and sales amount both showing negative growth, returning to levels seen in 2009 and 2015-2016, respectively [24][40]. - The average earnings per share for listed real estate companies saw a significant drop, reflecting a lack of confidence among buyers due to economic pressures [23][24]. Debt and Financing - The average net debt ratio for listed real estate companies rose to 83.99%, an increase of 7.24 percentage points from the previous year, indicating growing leverage and financial strain [19][27]. - The total financing amount for the top 30 listed real estate companies was 3934.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.02%, suggesting ongoing efforts to manage debt [27][29]. Operational Efficiency - The average inventory turnover rate for listed companies was 0.36, down from the previous year, reflecting challenges in sales and inventory management [36]. - Approximately 80% of listed real estate companies reported a decline in inventory, with an average decrease of 9.75%, indicating a contraction in operational scale [36][40]. Social Responsibility - The average tax amount paid by listed real estate companies was 9.32 billion, down approximately 23.92% year-on-year, reflecting the industry's overall revenue decline [37]. - All top 10 listed real estate companies published their social responsibility reports for 2024, indicating a commitment to ESG practices amid market challenges [37].
2024年中国房企总土储货值排行榜TOP100
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-05-22 08:53
Core Viewpoint - The total inventory value of 50 typical listed companies reached 7.98 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 15% compared to the end of last year [1]. Group 1: Inventory and Land Reserve Data - As of the end of 2024, the total land reserve value of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 25.23 trillion yuan, down 13% year-on-year [15]. - The total land reserve area of the top 100 companies was 1.582 billion square meters, a decrease of 12% compared to the previous year [15]. - The threshold for the top 100 companies in terms of total land reserve value was 20.58 billion yuan, a decline of 16% [16]. Group 2: Company Performance and Trends - 96% of the top 100 real estate companies experienced a decline in land reserve value, with 15% of companies seeing a drop of over 20% [19]. - Vanke's total land reserve value decreased by over 340 billion yuan, a drop of approximately 25% [20]. - The inventory turnover cycle for the top 100 companies reached a historical high of 6.93 years, indicating increased pressure on inventory liquidation [25]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Challenges - The sales of new commercial housing in 2024 totaled 96,750 billion yuan, a decline of 17.1%, reflecting weak market demand [25]. - 94% of the 50 typical listed companies recognized inventory impairment losses totaling 167.7 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 26% increase from previous years [32]. - The proportion of completed inventory reached a record high, accounting for 27% of the total inventory value, indicating a shift towards liquidating completed projects [30]. Group 4: Strategic Focus and Policy Directions - The industry is transitioning from a "scale-oriented" approach to a "product-oriented" strategy, with companies focusing on core first and second-tier cities for new investments [35]. - Companies like Poly Development and China Resources Land are emphasizing inventory liquidation and optimizing land use to reduce capital occupation [36]. - The 2025 policy focus is expected to revolve around ensuring housing delivery, land reserve optimization, and urban renewal initiatives [37].
行业透视 | 过半小区房价环比上涨,二手房释放企稳信号
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-05-21 09:06
过半小区房价环比上涨,高频交易小区数量创新高,议价空间创新低 ◎ 文 / 马千里 在本周的国新办经济数据发布会上,对于当下房地产市场的走势,国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示, 4月份房地产市场交易和价格基本稳定,部分一、二线城市交易活跃度有所提升。70个大中城市中,一、 二、三线二手住宅销售价格同比收窄0.9、0.5和0.4个百分点。CRIC监测重点城市4月份平均去化率37%, 较上年同期高出13个百分点。 与我们上月判断一致,在3月份短暂调整之后,4月重点城市房价上涨的小区占比达到51.9%,再度超过半 数。与信心企稳同步,议价空间进一步收窄,高端小区房价延续领涨。随着挂牌价与成交价差距的持续收 缩,二手房正在释放出更多企稳新信号: 过半小区房价环比上行 高频交易小区数量再创新高 01 为探析二手房成交价格的动向,研究中心以北京、上海等11个典型城市的二手房小区为样本,为避免单套 异常成交影响较大,每个月样本小区的选取标准,均为近2个月交易量不小于5套。 从统计结果来看, 4月有51.9%的小区成交价格环比上升,较上月增加3个百分点,高频交易小区数量环比 增长62%,创下年内新高,更多小区迎来成交"解冻" ...
海外置业① | 高增长型新兴市场,阿联酋置业环境大起底
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-05-21 09:06
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the favorable real estate policies and investment immigration strategies in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which attract global investors and high-net-worth individuals, contributing to significant economic growth and diversification [2][13][23]. Economic Recovery and Diversification - The UAE's economy has shown significant recovery post-pandemic, with a projected GDP growth of 3.9% in 2024, reaching a historical high of 1.74 trillion dirhams [2]. - The non-oil economy's GDP share has increased from 70.0% in 2018 to 74.6% in the first three quarters of 2024, with the real estate sector contributing 7.56% to the GDP [4]. - The population of the UAE reached 12.5 million by the end of Q3 2024, marking an increase of 2.33 million (23%) from 2023, driven by a surge in foreign residents [6]. Demographic Advantages - The UAE has a youthful population, with individuals aged 25-54 constituting 68.62% of the total population, which enhances consumer spending power [9][10]. - The foreign resident population stands at 11.06 million, accounting for approximately 88.5% of the total population, making the UAE an attractive destination due to job opportunities, low taxes, and quality education and healthcare [12]. Real Estate Investment Policies - The UAE implements a zero-tax policy on real estate transactions, exempting property tax, capital gains tax, value-added tax, personal income tax, and inheritance tax, which is appealing to global investors [13]. - Specific freehold areas have been designated for foreign buyers, allowing them to purchase, hold, and sell properties similarly to local residents [16]. - The introduction of the Golden Visa policy has led to a significant increase in foreign property buyers, with over 158,000 Golden Visas issued in 2024, a 15% increase from the previous year and nearly double the number from 2022 [16]. Future Development Potential - The UAE is actively developing emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and renewable energy, which will provide new economic growth points [21]. - The continuous population growth is expected to drive demand in various sectors, including housing, food, and daily consumer goods, thereby boosting industries like retail, dining, and real estate [22]. - The relaxed investment immigration policies are attracting high-net-worth individuals, further stimulating the luxury real estate market in cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi [23].
行业透视 | 贸易风暴下京沪深杭二手豪宅挂牌、成交占比双增
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-05-21 09:06
Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is experiencing a slight decline in transaction enthusiasm, with a 6% month-on-month decrease in April 2025, while year-on-year growth has narrowed to 10% [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The number of new listings in major cities showed a significant decrease in April 2025, with Beijing and Shanghai seeing increases of 17% and 60% respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou experienced declines of 7% and 29% [3]. - High-end properties in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou have seen a steady increase in listing activity, particularly in the price segments above 30 million yuan, which reached a peak since the beginning of 2025 [3][4]. - The listing activity for larger properties (over 160 square meters) remains stable or slightly increasing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, while Shenzhen shows a notable decline in this segment [4]. Group 2: Owner and Investor Sentiment - The trade war and economic slowdown have shifted owner and investor mindsets, leading to a rise in short-term listings due to three main factors: a desire to cash out at high prices, a need for liquidity to optimize asset allocation, and a trend of upgrading to new properties [10]. - The demand for high-end and improved housing remains robust, with the proportion of transactions over 10 million yuan increasing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, indicating a preference for quality assets amidst limited new supply [12][13]. Group 3: Price Stability and Investment Recommendations - The price stability of high-end properties in core urban areas is evident, with price fluctuations remaining within 10%, and a significant percentage of properties in Shanghai and Shenzhen showing price increases [17]. - Investors are advised to focus on core urban areas, select larger improved housing products, and avoid properties in suburban areas or those lacking functional amenities to mitigate risks in the current market environment [21][23].