Core Viewpoints - The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, but not in a comprehensive manner, with high-frequency indicators showing no significant decline yet [4] - Inflation in the U.S. remains manageable, with the OPI in July rising by 2.7%, indicating a trend of overall inflation easing [4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates twice in the near future, reflecting a cautious approach to economic recovery [4] Macro Analysis - The U.S. economy is experiencing marginal weakening, with pressures on investment, consumption, and real estate increasing [4] - Domestic policies are currently in an observation phase, focusing on implementing existing policies while addressing weaknesses in investment and consumption [4] - The policy structure is shifting towards long-term strategic goals, emphasizing high-quality economic development and sustainable growth mechanisms [4] A-share Strategy and Views - The A-share market is expected to continue a trend of upward fluctuations, with core assets regaining profitability [4] - The market is characterized by high trading volumes and increased investor participation, indicating a strong market sentiment [4] - The upcoming key events, such as the 20th National Congress and U.S.-China trade negotiations, are anticipated to influence market performance positively [4] Asset Allocation Views - The overall asset allocation remains relatively optimistic for A-shares and U.S. bonds, while maintaining a neutral stance on other asset classes [6] - The focus is on balanced holdings, with an emphasis on technology and growth sectors, which are expected to show higher elasticity [4][6] - Continuous attention is given to global diversification opportunities, including investments in Japanese and European stocks, as well as gold [4][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that while there may be short-term fluctuations in September due to profit-taking, the overall bull market remains intact, supported by high market activity and positive sentiment [1][4]. - The report recommends maintaining or increasing positions in large-cap indices and the ChiNext, with a focus on growth sectors such as technology and rare earths for medium to high-risk investors [1][4]. - The equity market showed a balanced style between large and small caps, with a significant advantage for growth styles, while the volatility of value and growth styles increased [6][7]. Group 2 - In the commodity market, all sectors experienced a decline in trend strength, while the energy and precious metals sectors saw a rapid increase in basis momentum [20]. - The options market indicated that implied volatility for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 remained high, with an increase in the skew of put options for the CSI 1000, suggesting some divergence among market participants [28]. - The convertible bond market experienced adjustments with significant daily declines, but the overall trading volume did not show a marked decrease, indicating that it will continue to follow the equity market's trends [30].

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The new trust registration regulations will impact 1.82 trillion yuan of non-standard financial products, effective from September 1, 2025, as the China Trust Registration Company will no longer accept pre-registration of trust plans with a single financing party [6][7] - The recent half-year reports from banks show a divergence in wealth management business performance, with some institutions experiencing a growth rate of up to 17% in their existing product scale [7][8] Yield Performance - For the week of August 25 to August 31, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.31%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while money market funds saw a slight decline to 1.19% [4][8] - The overall bond market maintained a fluctuating pattern, with short-term rates supported by the central bank's liquidity measures, while long-term rates faced pressure due to expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [9][10] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products decreased to 2.11%, down 0.94 percentage points week-on-week, while credit spreads narrowed by 0.22 basis points [5][12] - The current credit spreads are at historical lows since September 2024, indicating limited value for investors, and any further expansion in credit spreads may put upward pressure on the net value ratio [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential of ETF grid strategies in the context of the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting the influx of foreign capital and the favorable conditions for technology and new economy sectors [2][3][9]. Group 1: ETF Grid Strategy - The ETF grid strategy is designed to capitalize on the increasing liquidity and depth in the Hong Kong market, driven by significant net inflows from southbound funds and foreign capital [2][3]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180.SH) tracks 30 leading technology companies listed in Hong Kong, covering high-growth sectors such as new consumption, internet, biomedicine, semiconductors, and intelligent driving [3][4]. Group 2: New Economy ETF - The New Economy ETF (159822.SZ) aligns with government initiatives to develop new productive forces and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation [5][6]. - This ETF indirectly tracks the S&P China New Economy Industry Index, holding leading companies in sectors like internet technology, consumer upgrades, healthcare, and fintech, thus providing a diversified investment tool [5][6]. Group 3: S&P Consumer ETF - The S&P Consumer ETF (159529.SZ) is positioned to benefit from potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate consumer demand in the U.S. [8][9]. - Recent data indicates a cooling labor market in the U.S., with rising unemployment claims, which may further support the case for a rate cut and its positive impact on consumer spending [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share equity market is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a 0.84% increase this week, indicating a resilient market despite short-term adjustments [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market remains strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index quickly rebounding after a brief correction near the 3900-point mark [3]. - The domestic equity fund strategy index also recorded gains this week, with low-volatility strategies underperforming in terms of excess returns [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Strategy Insights - The preferred fund strategies are ranked as follows: stock-enhanced strategies > overseas equity strategies > evergreen low-volatility strategies [4]. - The stock-enhanced fund strategy achieved a return of 1.389% this week, while the evergreen low-volatility strategy recorded a return of 1.249% [5]. - The cash-enhanced fund strategy outperformed the benchmark with a return of 0.027%, accumulating a total excess return of 0.481% since its inception [5]. Group 3: Overseas Market Dynamics - The overseas equity allocation fund strategy recorded a return of 0.329% this week, with a focus on the recovery of the U.S. stock market following tariff negotiations and strong earnings reports from tech companies [6]. - The U.S. economy shows no significant signs of recession, and the ongoing technological advancements are expected to drive future growth in the U.S. stock market [6]. Group 4: Fund Composition and Strategy - The evergreen low-volatility fund strategy has demonstrated strong stability and lower volatility compared to the benchmark, making it suitable for risk-averse investors [9]. - The stock-enhanced fund strategy aims to identify funds with strong alpha generation capabilities, which may yield excess returns as market conditions improve [10][21]. - The cash-enhanced fund strategy focuses on selecting high-yield money market funds to optimize short-term cash management [12][22]. - The overseas equity allocation fund strategy utilizes momentum and reversal indicators to select international equity indices for investment, enhancing global diversification [15][23].

分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 权益市场回顾： 上周（8月25日至8月29日）A股继续震荡上行，万得全A指数上涨1.90%，科技赛道是投资者关 注的重点，创业板指与创业板 50 分别上涨7.74% 和9.27%，科创 50录得 7.49% 的涨幅。 权益市场观察： "AI+"：目前行情主要集中于上游基础设施类硬件，其中景气确定性最高的海外链光模块、PCB等在6月率先启 动，8月中旬国产算力开始补涨。参考移动互联网的经验，科技牛市的本质是技术扩散与价值链传导的过程，板 块内部通常遵循从硬件到软件、从故事到业绩的轮动节奏，未来国内AI应用也将从海外对标炒作转向报表端增 长验证。 全A中报披露：2025年A股上市公司中报基本披露完成，2025H1全部A股/全A非金融石化累计归母净利润同比 增速分别为3.36%和4.27%，较 2025Q1 分别回落0.83%和2.39%，业绩底部回暖趋势仍在途。 消费电子：目前手机仍是用户和AI交互的最主流硬件，2025年以来，更多AI消费硬件尝试成为手机的外延；从 长远来看，随着语音、视频等交互方式发展 ...

Market Overview - The bond market continued to fluctuate last week (2025.08.25-2025.08.29), with a warming market sentiment. The 1-year government bond yield decreased by 0.09 basis points to 1.37%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 5.61 basis points to 1.84%. Credit bonds showed overall recovery, with divergent trends in term spreads and credit spreads [3][9]. - U.S. Treasury yields also declined last week, with the 1-year yield falling to 3.83%, the 2-year yield to 3.59%, and the 10-year yield to 4.23%. This was influenced by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following the firing of a board member and strong demand for 2-year Treasury bonds [3][9]. REITs Market - The REITs market experienced a recovery, with the CSI REITs total return index rising by 1.06% over the week. The sectors that rebounded the most were affordable rental housing and consumer infrastructure, while transportation and energy sectors showed smaller fluctuations, indicating defensive attributes [3][10]. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The approval process for "rights-containing" mixed funds and secondary bond funds has accelerated. Recent regulatory updates indicate a focus on supporting the development of various fund types while prioritizing equity funds [4][11]. Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Enhanced Index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 3.99% since inception. Short-term bond fund selections fell by 0.03%, with a cumulative return of 4.15%. Mid to long-term bond fund selections increased by 0.07%, with a cumulative return of 6.21% [5][12][13]. - Low volatility fixed income + fund selections rose by 0.20%, with a cumulative return of 3.72%. Medium volatility fixed income + fund selections increased by 0.53%, with a cumulative return of 4.79%. High volatility fixed income + fund selections rose by 0.23%, with a cumulative return of 6.29% [6][12][13]. - Convertible bond fund selections fell by 1.28%, but have a cumulative return of 18.45%. QDII bond fund selections rose by 0.20%, with a cumulative return of 9.13% [6][12][13].

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the A-share market in August, with significant gains across major indices, driven by a focus on technology and chip sectors, alongside supportive government policies in real estate and artificial intelligence [2][6]. Important Events Review - On August 29, the A-share market closed strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points, marking a 10-year high. The ChiNext Index rose over 24% in August, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 28%, indicating a concentrated market interest in computing power and chip sectors [2]. - On August 25, the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee, along with other departments, issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, including reducing housing purchase restrictions and improving housing provident fund and personal housing credit policies [2]. - On August 29, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of avoiding disorderly competition in the development of "Artificial Intelligence +". The next 1-2 years are seen as a critical window for AI implementation, with plans to support AI development through measures like issuing computing power vouchers to lower R&D costs [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the current market sentiment remains high, with an influx of incremental funds and a continued "deposit migration" logic, leading to a sustained profit effect [2][5]. - It is expected that the A-share market will continue its upward trend unless there is policy intervention, with a recommendation to maintain a balanced allocation focusing on mid-to-large cap and leading companies, particularly in the technology growth sector [2][5]. - The article suggests paying attention to the rotation and rebound opportunities in key sectors such as technology, new energy, cyclical industries (including military and rare earths), pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend stocks [2][5]. Group 2 - In the equity market, the style shifted from small-cap dominance to large-cap dominance, with growth style significantly outperforming [7]. - The volatility of both small and large-cap styles has decreased, while the volatility of value and growth styles has increased [7][10]. - The concentration of trading has increased, with the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries seeing a rapid rise in their transaction volume proportions [7][10]. Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of precious metals has slightly decreased, while the trend strength of energy and black metals has increased [12]. - The volatility of energy and black metal sectors has decreased from near-year highs, while the volatility of precious metals has slightly increased [12]. - Liquidity in the black and non-ferrous metal sectors has rapidly declined [12]. Group 4 - In the options market, the implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 remains high, indicating pressure on short positions due to strong upward movements [14]. - The skew of put options has dropped into negative territory, with an increase in the open interest of put options compared to call options, suggesting that market participants are beginning to take risk precautions [14]. Group 5 - The convertible bond market experienced some volatility, with the premium rate for conversion dropping significantly from its peak to near the median of the past year, primarily due to the market's sharp rise [16]. - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has decreased, indicating that the recent valuation drop is mainly due to adjustments in previously high premium convertible bonds [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing attractiveness of "equity + fixed income" bank wealth management products due to the rising equity market, leading to a shift in investor preferences from pure fixed income products [3][6] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The annualized yield of certain equity-linked bank wealth management products has shown impressive performance, prompting investors to reallocate funds from pure fixed income products to these hybrid options [3][6] - Bank wealth management subsidiaries are intensifying collaborations with local small and medium-sized banks to expand distribution channels and business scope [3][6] Peer Innovation Dynamics - On August 26, China Post Wealth Management launched two new personal pension wealth management products with different holding periods, designed to meet diverse retirement planning needs [7] - On August 23, Xingyin Wealth Management completed an equity investment in Beijing Mainline Technology Co., Ltd., driven by a long-term investment logic in smart driving [7][8] Yield Performance - For the week of August 18-24, 2025, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.31%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while money market funds reported a yield of 1.20% [4][9] - The yield of various fixed income and hybrid products has generally declined, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 0.4 basis points to 1.37% and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 3.5 basis points to 1.78% [4][10] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products rose to 3.04%, an increase of 1.47 percentage points week-on-week, while credit spreads narrowed by 2.90 basis points [5][15] - Despite a weakening sentiment in the bond market, credit spreads remain at historically low levels, indicating limited value [5][15]