Market Overview - The A-share market achieved a breakthrough amidst fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3950 points during the week of October 20-24, 2025, reflecting a 2.88% increase [3][11] - The technology growth sector made a strong comeback in the latter half of the week, indicating market expectations for policies promoting technological self-reliance and new productive forces [3][11] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 1.7928 trillion yuan, showing a decline compared to the previous week, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties [11] US-China Negotiations - The upcoming US-China negotiations from October 24-27 in Malaysia are viewed as a critical signal for easing trade tensions, potentially improving risk appetite in the capital markets if a summit between the leaders occurs [4][11] Style Rotation - The market is entering a phase of style equilibrium, suggesting that discussions around style rotation have largely concluded, with various sectors seeking their own changes and returning to performance-driven market characteristics [4][12] Active Equity Fund Index Performance - The Active Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 3.72% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 39.11% since inception [5][15] - The High-end Manufacturing Fund Selection Index increased by 8.47% last week, but has recorded a cumulative excess return of -2.53% since inception [6][15] - The Growth Stock Fund Selection Index saw a rise of 5.14% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 38.79% since inception [7][15] Sector-Specific Fund Performance - The Technology Stock Fund Selection Index increased by 5.79% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 51.08% since inception [7][15] - The Consumer Stock Fund Selection Index rose by 0.59% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 7.88% since inception [7][15] - The Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index decreased by 1.12% last week, but has a cumulative excess return of 20.21% since inception [7][15]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the potential for a market style shift in the fourth quarter, suggesting a reduction in positions within the technology growth sector and a shift towards broader indices and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][6] - The macro strategy team indicates that external short-term disturbances are expected to be less significant than in April, with positive signals anticipated from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][6] - The report notes an increase in market volatility and a tendency for profit-taking and portfolio adjustments following the release of favorable signals in October [2][6] Group 2 - In the equity market, the style has shifted towards large-cap stocks, with a preference for value over growth, while the volatility of large-cap stocks has increased [8][9] - The report highlights a decrease in the proportion of stocks rising within the market, alongside a decline in the concentration of trading among the top 100 stocks [8][9] - Market activity has shown increased volatility, with a mixed performance in turnover rates across different sectors [8][9] Group 3 - In the commodity market, trends for precious metals, energy, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products have strengthened, while the black metal sector has weakened [14][15] - The report indicates an increase in liquidity for precious metals, contrasting with a decline in liquidity for other sectors [14][15] Group 4 - The options market experienced heightened implied volatility due to unexpected tariff announcements, leading to a temporary spike in fear among investors [19] - The report notes that the indicators for the small-cap/growth style have not shown signs of improvement, despite previous strength [19] Group 5 - The convertible bond market adjusted in line with the stock market, maintaining stable conversion premiums, which suggests a good defensive characteristic compared to the stock market [22] - The report mentions a decline in pure bond premiums and a significant drop in market transaction volumes post-holiday [22]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current challenges and strategies in the wealth management industry, emphasizing the need for multi-asset allocation and technological empowerment to adapt to a low-interest-rate environment [6][7][17]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The Global Wealth Management Forum 2025 held in Shanghai highlighted the consensus among wealth management executives on the importance of multi-asset strategies, expanding overseas investments, and enhancing research capabilities through technology [6]. - Challenges faced by the banking wealth management sector include low interest rates leading to asset shortages, the need for differentiated services, and the demand for improved performance stability in the net value era [6][7]. - The performance benchmark for newly issued fixed-income wealth management products has dropped from over 4% at the end of 2021 to around 2.4% as of September 2023, indicating increased pressure on yield generation [6]. Innovations in the Industry - 招银理财 launched a self-selected account date wealth management product, allowing investors to set their expected fund arrival dates independently, enhancing cash flow management [9]. - 徽银理财 introduced a product focused on inclusive finance, targeting small and micro enterprises, with reduced management fees and no subscription or redemption fees [10]. Yield Performance - For the week of October 13-19, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.31%, down 4 basis points, while money market funds yielded 1.16%, down 2 basis points [12][16]. - Long-term fixed-income products outperformed short-term ones, with the market influenced by factors such as US-China tariff policies and inflation data [16][17]. Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 1.69%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points from the previous week, with credit spreads narrowing by 2.46 basis points [23][25]. - The relationship between net value ratios and credit spreads indicates potential redemption pressures when net value ratios exceed 5% and credit spreads widen significantly [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various ETFs that are positioned to benefit from specific economic trends and government policies, highlighting their potential for investment returns. Group 1: Saudi ETF (159329.SZ) - Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" aims to diversify its economy away from oil dependency, targeting a non-oil GDP export share increase from 16% to at least 50% [3] - The ETF's holdings reflect this diversification, with over 40% in the financial sector and more than 20% in consumer and technology sectors, while traditional fossil fuels account for only about 10% [3] - A proposed amendment by the Saudi Capital Market Authority could allow foreign ownership in listed companies to exceed 50%, potentially attracting more foreign investment [4] Group 2: Bank ETF (512800.SH) - A policy initiative encourages large state-owned insurance companies to increase their investments in A-shares, which may lead to a sustained inflow of long-term capital [6] - The ETF tracks the CSI 800 Bank Index, which had a dividend yield of 4.40% as of September 30, 2025, significantly higher than the market average and the yield on ten-year government bonds [7] Group 3: Military Industry ETF (515660.SH) - China's defense budget for 2025 is set at 1.81 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase, but still below 1.3% of GDP, compared to 3.5% for the U.S. and 6.3% for Russia [10] - The ETF tracks the CSI Defense Index, focusing on core areas such as aviation equipment, missiles, and new materials, which are expected to benefit from improvements in the defense sector's fundamentals [10]

Market Overview - In September 2025, the equity market continued its upward trend, but the growth rate slowed compared to August, with a notable structural market characterized by strong performance in technology growth sectors [5][11] - The bond market faced pressure due to the stronger equity market, leading to a volatile environment [6][11] Equity Market Insights - The leading sectors in September included electric equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, with respective gains of 18.64%, 12.64%, and 10.28%. Conversely, sectors like comprehensive finance, banking, and national defense saw declines of -8.04%, -6.64%, and -6.62% [5][10] - The market experienced significant fluctuations around the military parade, followed by a rebound in AI-related stocks due to better-than-expected earnings from overseas AI leaders [5][10] Fund Performance - All major equity fund indices recorded gains, with the Wind Active Equity Fund Index, Wind Mixed Equity Fund Index, and Wind Ordinary Stock Fund Index rising by 6.67%, 5.52%, and 5.43% respectively [5][10] - The fund performance review indicated a general uptrend in fund style indices, with growth and small-cap styles continuing to dominate [7] Bond Market Insights - The bond market continued to experience fluctuations, with the equity market's strength exerting pressure on bond yields [6][11] - Key events included a meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, which raised expectations for the resumption of bond buying, followed by concerns over fund redemption due to new regulations [6][11] Fund Strategy Adjustments - The active equity fund selection strategy focuses on sectors with high short-term prosperity, emphasizing the need for sustained industry momentum amid prolonged market differentiation [11] - Adjustments to the pure bond fund selection strategy were made to enhance returns by incorporating credit bonds and strategies adept at wave trading [17][18] Thematic Fund Performance - Thematic funds showed varied performance, with sectors benefiting from overseas demand for energy storage and breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology leading the gains [8][10] - Financial and real estate thematic funds lagged, reflecting a shift in market sentiment as risk appetite increased [8][10] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, with potential for moderate recovery amid a cooling stock market and macroeconomic data [18] - The focus on domestic demand remains crucial, with expectations for sectors like aviation and liquor to gain traction as consumer infrastructure initiatives are implemented [13][14]

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing market volatility due to various factors, including China's special port fees on US vessels and renewed tariff discussions, which have dampened market sentiment and risk appetite [3] - The "Changqing Low Volatility" strategy has shown resilience, with a drawdown of only 2.35% since October 1, 2025, outperforming the benchmark index's drawdown of 6.97% and the CSI All Share's drawdown of 5.05% [3] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term, despite short-term resistance, with strategies suggesting gradual accumulation of positions during market corrections [4] Group 2 - The "Changqing Low Volatility Fund" has consistently maintained low volatility and drawdown levels, outperforming the CSI Active Equity Fund Index since its strategy launch on July 31, 2023 [10] - The "Stock Enhancement Fund" strategy has shown performance close to the CSI Active Equity Fund Index, with potential for greater elasticity as market conditions improve [11] - The "Cash Growth Fund" has achieved a return of 0.027%, outperforming the benchmark, with cumulative excess returns exceeding 0.39% since its strategy launch [13] - The "Overseas Equity Allocation Fund" has accumulated high excess returns, benefiting from the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's easing policies and the growth of AI technology [17] Group 3 - The article discusses the construction of a new fund selection pool using quantitative methods to meet the diverse needs of investors in different market environments [19] - The "Changqing Low Volatility Fund" aims to select funds with long-term stable return characteristics, reflecting the investment style and risk control capabilities of fund managers [21][22] - The "Stock Enhancement Fund" strategy focuses on identifying funds with strong alpha generation capabilities, aiming for superior performance in favorable market conditions [23] - The "Cash Growth Fund" selection system is designed to optimize returns while minimizing risk for investors managing cash [24] - The "Overseas Equity Allocation Fund" utilizes momentum and reversal factors to select international equity indices for investment, enhancing global asset allocation [25]

分析师：孙书娜 登记编号： S0890523070001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025.10.13-2025.10.17），A股波动相对较大，主要指数均收跌，创业板指领跌，录 得5.71%的跌幅，沪深300录得了2.22%的跌幅，上证指数录得1.47%的跌幅。分版块而言，仅银行、煤炭为代 表的红利和价值板块出现逆势上涨，电子、传媒、通信等科技成长板块出现较大回调。 公募基金市场动态： 2025年内超315亿资金入场，公募参与定增同比增超五成。 主动权益基金指数表现跟踪： 主动股基优选指数：上周收跌3.91%，成立以来累计录得13.56%的超额收益。 科技股基优选指数：上周收跌5.53%，成立以来累计录得21.77%的超额收益 。 高端制造股基优选指数：上周收跌6.30%，成立以来累计录得-5.59%的超额收益 。 周期股基优选指数：上周收跌1.11%，成立以来累计录得-2.38%的超额收益。 风险提示： 基金的过往业绩及基金经理管理其他产品的历史业绩不代表未来表现；本报告根据历史公开数据及 定期报告整理，存在失效风险，不代表对基金未来资产配置 ...

Market Overview - The bond market sentiment improved last week (2025.10.13-2025.10.17), with yields fluctuating. The 1-year government bond yield rose by 5.93 basis points to 1.44%, while the 10-year yield fell by 1.4 basis points to 1.82%, and the 30-year yield decreased by 7 basis points to 2.20%. The overall weak stock market and the central bank's release of liquidity contributed to the rebound of long-term bonds, leading the bond market [3][14]. - The U.S. Treasury yields also declined last week, with the 1-year yield down by 4 basis points to 3.56%, the 2-year yield down by 6 basis points to 3.46%, and the 10-year yield down by 3 basis points to 4.02%. The decline was influenced by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman and concerns about the U.S. regional banking system [14]. Public Fund Market Dynamics - On October 14, the CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park closed-end infrastructure securities investment fund (referred to as "Shenyang International Software Park REIT") successfully completed its fundraising, marking the first public REIT project successfully issued in Northeast China. The initial assets of the Shenyang International Software Park REIT consist of 13 industrial buildings in Shenyang, with a total property area of 201,200 square meters, primarily focused on research and development office space [17][16]. Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Enhanced Index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.19% since inception [4][19]. - The Short-term Bond Fund Index increased by 0.05%, with a cumulative return of 4.32% since inception [5][19]. - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Index rose by 0.16%, with a cumulative return of 6.23% since inception [6][19]. - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index fell by 0.06%, with a cumulative return of 3.93% since inception [7][19]. - The Medium Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index decreased by 0.85%, with a cumulative return of 4.69% since inception [8][19]. - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index dropped by 1.00%, with a cumulative return of 6.70% since inception [9][19]. - The Convertible Bond Fund Index fell by 2.61%, with a cumulative return of 19.80% since inception [10][19]. - The QDII Bond Fund Index rose by 0.18%, with a cumulative return of 10.57% since inception [11][19]. - The REITs Fund Index decreased by 2.43%, with a cumulative return of 31.01% since inception [12][19].

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent economic indicators and government measures, highlighting the stability of the consumer market and the implications of China's export control on rare earths, as well as the overall financing scale in the economy. Group 1: Important Events Review - The Ministry of Commerce announced that the recent rare earth export control measures are a normal action to improve China's export control system, not targeting specific countries or regions, and compliant export applications for civilian use will be approved [2]. - As of September 2025, the total social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [2]. - In September, the consumer market remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.1% month-on-month and falling 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [2]. Group 2: Weekly Market Review - The central bank conducted a 600 billion yuan six-month reverse repurchase operation, providing liquidity support and maintaining a loose overall funding environment, with funding prices remaining low [4]. - The A-share market experienced an overall pullback, indicating a "bond-stock" effect where sentiment in the bond market fluctuated alongside stock market movements [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the banking wealth management sector in September, highlighting regulatory changes, market trends, and innovative product offerings by various banks and wealth management companies [3][4][5]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - In September, significant regulatory changes were introduced, including new public fund sales fee regulations, which are expected to impact both the asset and liability sides of bank wealth management [3][8]. - The issuance of gold-linked wealth management products surged due to rising gold prices, with several banks actively launching these products to meet investor demand [4][9]. - Several banks in Sichuan province are collaborating to apply for wealth management company licenses, which could serve as a model for small and medium-sized banks [9][10]. Performance and Market Trends - The total market size of wealth management products in September was 30.80 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.48% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 6.30% [5][12]. - The annualized yield for cash management products decreased to 1.30%, while pure fixed-income products saw a yield of 1.27%, down by 0.50 percentage points [5][12]. - The market's net value decline rate rose to 5.32%, indicating a continued upward trend in this metric [5][12]. Product Innovations - Wealth management companies are increasingly focusing on index-based products and actively participating in the investment of science and technology bonds ETFs, employing a dual strategy of expanding product offerings and enhancing research capabilities [3][4][10]. - Notable innovations include the launch of self-developed asset allocation indices by various banks, such as the "Bay Area Global Asset Selection Index" by 招银理财 and the "Technology Five Forces Model" by 浦银理财 [4][10][11]. - The trend of wealth management companies engaging in IPO investments has gained momentum, with 中邮理财 participating in significant IPOs like "禾赛科技" and "奇瑞汽车" [9][10]. Market Structure and Product Characteristics - The new wealth management products launched in September predominantly featured fixed-income and closed-end products, maintaining a consistent structure with a focus on solid returns [5][12]. - The performance benchmarks for many newly issued products have been adjusted downward, reflecting a consensus among wealth management companies regarding the long-term low interest rate environment [5][12]. - The closed-end product compliance rate reached 86.09%, while the open-ended product compliance rate was 54.35%, indicating varying levels of performance across product types [6][12].