分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 | | 宏观主线梳理 | | --- | --- | | 海外宏观 | 美国经济初代防名自边际趋弱,大而美法案将加剧财政示字压力 | | | > 劳动力市场韧性仍存,通胀风险相对可控 | | | ◆ 6月新增非农就业13.9万人持产预期,不过结构性风险显现。5月美国通胀显示关税带来的价格风险相对可控,不过居民可选消费 | | | 需求下降。预计6月开始,关税对价格的冲击可能会有所体现。但程度或低于市场预期。我们预计芳经济数据不出现巨大的变化, | | | 9月之前美联储仍将按兵不动。 | | | > 在美国关税暂缓期7月到期后，美国大概率与多数国家达成部分贸易协议或延期，对少数国家实施关税 | | | ◆ 参议院通过的法案版本带来更高的财政赤字,可能进一步推动国债收益率上行。 | | | ◆ 7月9日关税豁免到期后,美国大概率将对大部分国家延长协议或达成部分贸易协议,可能会对少数国家实施关税。 上半年经济总量韧性较强,政策或处于观察窗期 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and strategies of ETF and index products, highlighting their market trends and investment opportunities in the current financial landscape [4]. Group 1: ETF and Index Products Performance - The report provides insights into the recent performance of ETF and index products, indicating a significant increase in trading volumes and investor interest [4]. - It notes that the market for ETFs has expanded, with a notable rise in assets under management, reflecting a growing trend among investors towards passive investment strategies [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of grid strategies in ETF and index product investments, suggesting that these strategies can enhance returns in volatile markets [4]. - It outlines various market conditions that could impact ETF performance, including economic indicators and investor sentiment, which are crucial for making informed investment decisions [4].

分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 本报告统计时间为2025.06.23-2025.06.27。 指数层面，沪指冲上3400短期内指数方面或需震荡整固确认支撑，短期以结构性机会为主。前期 上涨较多的大金融板块动能有所减弱，不过银行板块的调整或主因季末部分风格漂移的基金进行 调仓，导致短期抛压上升，但跨月后有望扭转，仍然可视作布局机会。此外，市场情绪和活跃度 回升后，预计主题方向短期有望迎来机会，美股科技近期强势，指向科技股业绩前景仍然向好， 叠加前期成交占比回落，TMT、AI、算力、半导体、游戏等方向近期性价比上升。 权益市场， 上周，小盘成长风格重回优势；市场波动方面，大小盘风格波动下降，价值成长风格 波动略有上升。市场结构方面，上周，行业指数超额收益离散度略有上升，成分股上涨比例大幅 提高，行业轮动速度下降；交易集中度方面，前100个股成交集中度较上期持平，前5行业成交额 占比上升。市场活跃度方面，上周，市场波动率上升，市场换手率大幅增加。 商品市场方面 ，上周，商品市场方面，除农产品外，其余板块趋势强度均有所下降；基差 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Financial Products Annual Report titled "Ecological Leap" emphasizes the transformation of the wealth and asset management industry towards a service-oriented model, highlighting the need for industry-wide collaboration and the reconstruction of the wealth ecosystem [2][3]. Group 1: Insights on Wealth Ecosystem - The report reflects on the past year's efforts and anticipates future explorations, marking the 14th consecutive year of publication [1][2]. - The concept of "ecological leap" signifies a comprehensive and profound transformation within the industry, requiring collective progress rather than isolated actions from individual institutions [2][3]. - The value of research services is underscored as essential for identifying trends and guiding industry transformation [2]. Group 2: Financial Product Overview - The report includes a detailed directory covering various financial products and their market outlooks, such as bank wealth management, public funds, ETFs, trust markets, and private equity funds [3][4][5]. - It addresses key topics like the challenges of net value fixed-income products, the impact of structured products, and the evolution of private equity strategies [3][4][5][6]. Group 3: Future Directions - The report outlines the necessity for a buyer-centric perspective in research, aiming for a synergistic evolution of the financial ecosystem [3][6]. - It discusses the importance of adapting to new market conditions and the potential for innovative financial products to emerge in response to changing investor needs [4][5][6].

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - On June 24, the People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support consumption, emphasizing the need for innovative financial products that meet household wealth management needs and enhance residents' property income [2][5] - As of May 2025, there are 164 public fund management institutions in China, managing a total net asset value of 33.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.26 billion yuan from April [6] Yield Performance - For the week of June 23-29, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.42%, up 1 basis point, while money market funds reported a yield of 1.32%, up 2 basis points [3][8] - The yield of pure fixed income and fixed income + products generally declined, influenced by factors such as the stock-bond seesaw effect and seasonal liquidity [9][10] Product Innovation and Market Trends - ICBC Wealth Management and China Post Wealth Management participated as cornerstone investors in the IPO of Sanhua Intelligent Control, each acquiring a stake of 20 million USD [7] - The ongoing valuation rectification in bank wealth management is expected to limit product yield potential, as companies shift focus towards low-volatility, high-liquidity assets [10][14]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a slight decline last week (June 23-27, 2025), with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) down by 0.05% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) down by 0.09% [2] - Short-term interest rates decreased while long-term rates increased, with credit bond yields generally rising and credit spreads widening [11] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained a supportive stance, injecting a net of 12,672 billion yuan into the market, which favored short-term bonds [11] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The PBOC announced plans to open a new batch of Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) investment quotas to meet domestic investor demand, marking the first release in a year [14][15] - As of May 31, 2025, the total approved QDII quota reached 167.79 billion USD, with securities accounting for the largest share at 54.93% [15] Fund Performance Tracking - Short-term bond fund index rose by 0.02% last week, with a cumulative return of 3.94% since inception [3] - Medium to long-term bond fund index fell by 0.05%, with a cumulative return of 6.48% since inception [4] - Low volatility fixed income + fund index increased by 0.16%, with a cumulative return of 2.47% since inception [5] - Medium volatility fixed income + fund index rose by 0.42%, with a cumulative return of 1.78% since inception [6] - High volatility fixed income + fund index increased by 0.35%, with a cumulative return of 3.00% since inception [7] - Convertible bond fund index rose by 2.13%, with a cumulative return of 9.98% since inception [8] - QDII bond fund index increased by 0.59%, with a cumulative return of 7.96% since inception [9] - REITs fund index fell by 2.80%, but still recorded a cumulative return of 39.01% since inception [10] REITs Market Observation - The REITs secondary market adjusted from high levels, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index down by 1.38% last week [13] - Newly launched REIT products received strong market interest, with first-day trading limits reached for new listings [13] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges released new guidelines for public REITs expansion, which may stabilize future operations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Financial Products Annual Report titled "Ecological Leap" emphasizes the transformation of the wealth and asset management industry towards a service-oriented model, highlighting the need for industry-wide collaboration and the reconstruction of the wealth ecosystem [2][3]. Group 1: Insights on Wealth Ecosystem - The report reflects on the past year’s efforts and anticipates future explorations, marking the 14th consecutive year of publication [1][2]. - The concept of transitioning to a service-oriented model has gained significant traction within the industry, indicating a collective movement towards this transformation [2][3]. - The term "ecological leap" is introduced to describe the comprehensive and profound changes required for the industry’s evolution [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Product Analysis - The report includes various sections that analyze different financial products and their market dynamics, such as the challenges of net value fixed income products and the implications of deposit replacement products [3][4]. - It discusses the impact of index-based investment strategies on the competitive landscape of financial products, suggesting a shift towards more structured and tailored investment solutions [3][4]. - The report also examines the evolution of private equity strategies and the challenges faced by traditional private equity under new regulations [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Directions - The report outlines a vision for the future of wealth and asset management, emphasizing the importance of adapting to new market conditions and consumer needs [6]. - It highlights the necessity for financial institutions to leverage advanced models and technologies to enhance service delivery and client engagement [6]. - The report concludes with a call for industry participants to embrace the ecological leap as a means to navigate the evolving financial landscape and seize new opportunities [6][7].

分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27）上证指数上涨 1.91%，创业板指上涨 5.69%，恒生指数上涨 3.20%。银行板块在6月27日出现较大幅度回调，而科技股受海外映射及小米新品催化再度活跃。 权益市场观察： 银行调整背后：银行股回调主要受季末调表需求及获利回吐压力影响。年内银行板块涨幅显著，部分机构选择 季末止盈兑现收益。尽管市场此前关注保险资金在低利率环境下对稳定回报资产的配置需求，但银行低PB、高 股息特性对AMC等机构同样具备吸引力。 科技股再度活跃：科技产业指数在2月见到高点后，调整时间相对较长，上周科技板块相对活跃，除了"低位滞 涨"外，AI产业链催化频现。 军工热度提升：在近期"印巴"、"以伊"冲突的背景下，全球军贸需求持续深化我国军贸装备产的性能、性价比 优势。但是客观来说，军工出海仍面临多重挑战。 公募基金市场动态： 7月1日，信澳优势行业与华商致远回报将启动募集，至此全部26只浮动管理费基金开始募 集。 主动权益基金指数表现跟踪 主动股基优 ...

分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 ——中东局势按下停止键 1、中东局势按下停止键。美国总统特朗普于美国东部时间6月23日在社交媒体上表示， 以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致。伊朗和以色列24日均表示接受停火。尽管 此前美国轰炸伊朗核设施，但冲突并未进一步升级，而是在特朗普声称破坏伊朗核设施 后迅速转向挺火。 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 2、6月24-25日，美联储主席鲍威尔在众议院发表半年度货币政策证词。重申不急于降 息，强调高关税带来很大的不确定性，指出美国经济很强劲，在不确定形势下有理由缓 慢行动，同时提到了可能推动降息的一些因素。 3、6月27日，美财长贝森特暗示，关税谈判期有望延后至9月1日。贝森特表示，如果能 和18个重要贸易伙伴中的10个或12个签署，后面还有20个重要贸易伙伴，他认为可能在 9月1日美国劳动节前完成贸易协议。 总体来看，中东冲突已经"翻篇"，且美国贸易谈判期有望延后，短期内市场不确定性减 弱。国内市场预计仍相对偏稳健。 (6.23-6.29) 02 周度行情回顾 债市震荡为主 权益市场表现较好叠加季末因 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently lacking catalysts, leading to increased volatility pressure. The downward space for large-cap stocks is relatively limited under the support of the Central Huijin Investment. Short-term focus is recommended on defensive sectors such as banks and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][4] - New consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are facing higher adjustment risks in the short term, suggesting that investors should wait for risk release before seeking more cost-effective investment opportunities [2][4] Stock Market Factors - The large-cap value style remains dominant in the market, while the volatility of both large and small-cap styles has decreased. The volatility of value and growth styles is at a near-year low [6][8] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices is at a near-year low, with a decrease in the proportion of rising constituent stocks and an increase in industry rotation speed [6][8] - Market activity remains low, with the market volatility at a near-year low and a slight increase in turnover rate [7][8] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of black and precious metals has decreased, while the trend strength of agricultural products has increased. The basis momentum of precious metals and non-ferrous metals has rapidly declined [19][22] - The volatility of energy and precious metals has slightly increased, while other sectors remain at near-year low volatility levels. Liquidity performance is mixed across sectors, with the energy sector at a near-year high in liquidity [19][22] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility levels of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 show no significant trend, with the implied volatility of CSI 1000 remaining at historically low levels. The skewness of put options for CSI 1000 has increased, indicating a temporary alleviation of market concerns regarding small-cap stocks [28] Convertible Bond Market Factors - In the convertible bond market, valuations continue to rise, with the premium rate for bonds converting at 100 yuan increasing and approaching the peak seen in May. The proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums has significantly decreased, while market transaction volume remains stable within a fluctuating range [31]