Market Overview - A-shares remain stable with controllable risks, suggesting opportunities for low-cost investments in high-prosperity sectors. The macro strategy team indicates that market enthusiasm for chasing high prices is still weak, but the index remains relatively stable, expected to maintain a fluctuating structure with controllable risks. Signs of market stabilization have become more apparent since December, particularly in high-prosperity sectors that have shown resilience. It is recommended to preferentially invest in industries with upward trends in prosperity and patiently await the upcoming spring market [1][4][6]. Stock Market Factors - Last week, market style shifted slightly towards large-cap stocks, with a value-oriented approach gaining traction compared to the previous week. The volatility of both large-cap and value-growth styles remained low. The dispersion of excess returns among industries and the speed of industry rotation have reversed, showing an increase, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks has decreased. The trading concentration of the top 100 stocks remained stable, with a slight decline in the trading concentration of the top five industries [6][8]. Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, all sectors except for the black metal sector showed an upward trend in strength. The efficiency coefficients for precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products remained high. The basis momentum for precious metals saw a significant decline, while the basis momentum for energy and black metal sectors increased. Volatility increased in all sectors except for precious metals and agricultural products, and liquidity decreased in the energy and agricultural sectors, while other sectors saw a slight increase [20][21]. Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 rebounded from low levels last week. In terms of volatility skew, both call and put options for the Shanghai index decreased, while the put option skew for the CSI 1000 continued to rise, indicating that the market has experienced some risk release, with small-cap styles still accumulating risks [29]. Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market stabilized and showed signs of recovery last week. The valuation of bonds reached a new high for the year in terms of the premium rate for conversion at 100 yuan, maintaining a trend of oscillation and increase. The pure bond premium rate for debt-type groupings saw a slight increase, while the proportion of low premium conversion bonds continued to decline, remaining at a low level. Market transaction volume rebounded, surpassing the historical median for the past year [31].

分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编号：S0890525040001 投资要点 监管和行业动态： 1、12月19日，由中国证券报主办的"强投研 优配置 赢未来"2025银行业高质 量发展大会在深圳举行。会上，来自工银理财、建信理财、中邮理财、北银理财及汇华理财的 主要负责人齐聚一堂，就银行理财业的当前格局与未来方向发表洞见。2、据中国证券报，原广 发证券发展研究中心董事总经理、首席资产研究官戴康已出任招银理财权益投资部总经理。 同业创新动态： 1、苏银理财与头部券商合作，成功落地全市场首单以"科创债ETF"为质押券的 质押式协议回购交易。此举标志着科创债ETF在流动性管理工具应用上取得关键突破，为理财 公司盘活此类资产提供了新路径。2、徽银理财近期推出的首款"星徽全球+"产品——丰盈多资 产最低持有6个月（全球多元配置）已于12月15日至19日发售。产品风险等级为PR3（中风 险），部分挂钩于徽银理财自主研发的"徽银理财全球多元配置指数"。 收益率表现： 上周（2025.12.15-2025.12.21，下同）现金管理类产品近7日年化收益率录得 1.27%，环比基本持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the equity market, highlighting a mixed performance with a focus on domestic demand expansion and structural differentiation in market trends [2][11][13]. Group 1: Market Overview - The equity market experienced high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03% and the CSI 300 Index falling by 0.28% during the week of December 15-19, 2025 [2][11]. - The average daily trading volume across the market was 17,465 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous week [11]. - The financial and consumer sectors performed relatively well, while growth sectors lagged behind [11][13]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion - A significant emphasis was placed on expanding domestic demand, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping's article in "Qiushi" magazine, which elevated the strategy to a national level [13]. - Continuous policy support is expected to stimulate consumption, optimize new policy implementations, and address unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [13]. - The potential introduction of national subsidy policies post-New Year is anticipated to further boost consumption [13]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.10%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.82%, with most sectors experiencing a pullback due to concerns over rising U.S. Treasury yields and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [14]. - Short-term pressures on the Hong Kong market are expected to persist, but there remains a valuation advantage for Hong Kong stocks if short-term factors dissipate [14]. Group 4: Fund Performance Tracking - The Active Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.09% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 16.68% since inception [4]. - The Value Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 1.02%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.56% since inception [5]. - The Growth Equity Fund Selection Index fell by 1.02%, but has recorded a cumulative excess return of 13.05% since inception [6].

分析师：孙书娜 登记编号：S0890523070001 研究助理：张琦炜 投资要点 市场回顾： 上周（2025.12.15-2025.12.19）债市继续回暖，1年期国债收益率下行3.32BP至1.35%，10年期国 债收益率下行0.88BP至1.83%，30年期国债收益率下行2.35BP至2.23%。债市当前做多情绪有一定回升，各期 限收益率普遍下行。从当前市场定价逻辑来看，年末前积累的各类利空因素或正逐步消化，但也需注意近期债 市近期修复速度不慢，进一步获取资本利得的空间或有限，当前或仍应以偏中性、震荡思维对待为佳。 公募基金市场动态 ： 货币基金收益率持续走低，为维护持有人利益，现有多只货币基金限购。 泛固收基金指数表现跟踪 ： 货币增强指数： 上周收涨0.03%，成立以来累计录得4.43%的收益。 短期债基优选： 上周收涨0.04%，成立以来累计录得4.57%的收益。 中长期债基优选： 上周收涨0.08%，成立以来累计录得6.77%的收益。 低波固收+基金优选： 上周收涨0.22%，成立以来累计录得4.49%的收益。 中波固收+基金优选： 上周收涨0.12%，成立以来累计录得6.25%的收益。 高波固 ...

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent economic data indicating a slowdown in China's economy, alongside significant monetary policy changes in Japan that may impact global markets [2][4]. Group 1: Important Events Review - On December 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released November economic data showing a decline in consumption growth to 1.3% (previously 2.9%), a cumulative fixed asset investment growth rate of -2.6% (previously -1.7%), and an industrial added value decrease to 4.8% (previously 4.9%), indicating increased pressure on the domestic economy, although achieving the annual growth target remains feasible [2]. - On December 19, the National Financial Regulatory Administration publicly solicited opinions on the draft "Asset-Liability Management Measures for Insurance Companies," which clarifies assessment methods and standards, implementing long-term evaluations to prevent excessive pursuit of business expansion and short-term profits that could compromise asset-liability management [2]. - On December 19, the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike, raising the unsecured overnight call rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, with the decision passing unanimously 9-0 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The bond market showed slight recovery as negative factors were priced in, improving market sentiment and raising expectations for interest rate cuts and new public fund fee regulations, leading to a downward adjustment in yields from previously high levels [3]. - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and adjustments, particularly in growth sectors, influenced by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, which raised global market concerns and amplified volatility, while dividend and financial sectors helped lift the Shanghai Composite Index for three consecutive days [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing limited incremental growth, characterized by stockholder competition as year-end approaches, leading to a seasonal tightening of market liquidity and a tendency for investors to lock in profits, resulting in a potential lack of new funds [3][5] - The overall market is entering a phase of adjustment and consolidation, although it remains in a bull market, suggesting that any temporary corrections may present good investment opportunities [5][6] Equity Market Factors - Last week, market style shifted towards small-cap stocks, while the growth style was favored over value [7][9] - The volatility of small-cap stocks decreased, while the volatility of growth stocks increased [9] - The dispersion of excess returns among industries decreased, and the speed of industry rotation slowed down, with a lower proportion of rising constituent stocks [7][9] - The trading concentration increased, with the top 100 stocks accounting for a higher proportion of trading volume, while the top 5 industries saw a decrease in their trading volume share [7][9] - Market activity decreased, as indicated by lower market volatility and turnover rates [8][9] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of various sectors increased, particularly in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors [25][26] - The basis momentum in the energy and chemical sector increased, while it decreased in other sectors [26] - Volatility levels rose in all sectors except for energy and chemicals, with precious metals maintaining high volatility [25][26] - Liquidity in the black sector decreased, while other sectors saw a slight increase [25][26] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices further declined, reaching historical low levels, closely approaching historical volatility [28] - The skewness of put options for the SSE 50 decreased, while it increased for the CSI 1000, indicating that market adjustments may begin with a divergence in market capitalization styles [28] Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market exhibited low volatility and oscillation last week [33] - The premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 remained high with little change, while the premium rate for debt-type bonds decreased [33] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds declined again, remaining at a low level, with trading volume maintaining near the historical median for the past year [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant advancements in the banking wealth management sector, particularly in interest rate risk management, and the ongoing innovations in wealth management products, including participation in IPOs and the introduction of new financial indices [3][6][10]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - Shanghai Clearing House has facilitated the entry of Xinyin Wealth Management and Bank of China Wealth Management as the first wealth management companies to obtain qualifications for centralized clearing of interest rate derivatives in the interbank market, marking a key breakthrough in interest rate risk management [3][6]. - This development allows wealth management companies to independently manage interest rate risks, enhancing the stability of product net values [6][9]. - The restructuring of the relationship between wealth management companies and their parent banks has transformed these companies into independent entities in the interbank interest rate derivatives market, allowing for greater operational autonomy [7][9]. Peer Innovation Dynamics - Ningyin Wealth Management and Xinyin Wealth Management have collectively acquired 42,300 shares of Muxi Co., marking their active participation in the IPO market [10]. - The regulatory environment has favored wealth management companies by granting them equal priority in IPO allocations as public funds, driving their engagement in the A-share and Hong Kong IPO markets [10][11]. - Wealth management companies are focusing on high-tech manufacturing sectors for new stock investments, aligning with national strategic goals and market preferences for high-growth assets [11]. Yield Performance - Cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.27%, a decrease of 1 basis point, while money market funds saw a slight increase to 1.17% [15]. - The bond market has experienced fluctuations, with yields initially declining before rising again due to market reactions to economic data and monetary policy expectations [16][17]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market is expected to remain subdued, with a likely continuation of a volatile pattern influenced by monetary policy and market risk preferences [17]. Net Value Tracking - The net value of bank wealth management products has seen a decrease in the breaking net rate to 2.64%, down 0.38 percentage points, indicating limited value for credit spreads [20]. - The current credit spread remains at historical lows, suggesting potential upward pressure on the breaking net rate if spreads continue to widen [20].

Group 1: Military Industry ETF (512710.SH) - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality advancement of national defense and military modernization, with a projected defense budget of 1.81 trillion yuan for 2025, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [3][4] - The defense budget as a percentage of GDP remains below 1.3%, significantly lower than the US (3.5%) and Russia (6.3%), indicating potential for future increases in defense spending [3] - The ETF tracks the China Securities Military Leading Index, focusing on leading companies in aerospace equipment, military electronics, missiles, and drones, which are expected to benefit from a new round of military procurement cycles [4] Group 2: Healthcare Industry ETF (159892.SZ) - Domestic policies are increasingly supportive of innovative drug development, including a multi-tiered payment system and improved commercialization mechanisms, facilitating the transition from generic to innovative drugs [6][7] - As of January 2025, China has 7,041 drug pipelines under research, accounting for 29.5% of the global total, with a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, outpacing the global average [7] - The ETF tracks the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, focusing on 30 biotech companies listed in Hong Kong, which are well-positioned to capture opportunities in the rapid development and globalization of Chinese innovative drugs [7] Group 3: Automotive Industry ETF (520600.SH) - Recent policies such as vehicle purchase tax exemptions and subsidies for electric vehicles have effectively boosted domestic demand for new energy vehicles, with cumulative domestic sales reaching 10.929 million units by October 2025, a 25.7% increase year-on-year [11] - Exports of new energy vehicles have also surged, with 2.014 million units exported by October 2025, reflecting a 90.4% year-on-year growth [11] - The Ministry of Commerce has introduced measures to regulate the export of second-hand cars, aiming to promote healthy and orderly development of the automotive industry [11] Group 4: Gaming Industry ETF (159869.SZ) - In November 2025, a record number of 178 domestic online games and 6 imported games were approved, with a total of 1,624 game licenses issued from January to November, indicating a stable foundation for industry growth [13] - Chinese self-developed games generated actual sales revenue of $9.501 billion in overseas markets in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 11.07% year-on-year increase, showcasing strong international competitiveness [13] - The application of AI technology in game development is expected to lower costs and enhance efficiency, potentially leading to innovative gameplay [13]

Market Overview - The bond market showed slight recovery during the week of December 8-12, 2025, with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 1.37 basis points to 1.39%, the 10-year yield down by 0.84 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30-year yield also down by 0.84 basis points to 2.25% [3][14] - The outlook for the bond market suggests a gradual easing of pressure, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics and remaining room for interest rate cuts from policy [14] - Supply pressure in the bond market for 2026 is expected to be lower than in the same period of 2025, while the central bank is likely to maintain relatively ample market liquidity, indicating a potential for bond yields to decline gradually amidst fluctuations [14] Public Fund Market Dynamics - Multiple fund companies have initiated the performance benchmark assessment in response to the upcoming implementation of new regulations for public securities investment funds [17] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Enhanced Index rose by 0.02% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.40% since inception [4] - The Short-term Bond Fund Index increased by 0.03%, achieving a cumulative return of 4.53% since inception [5] - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Index saw a rise of 0.09%, with a cumulative return of 6.68% since inception [6] - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index increased by 0.02%, with a cumulative return of 4.26% since inception [7] - The Medium Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index decreased by 0.02%, with a cumulative return of 6.12% since inception [8] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.09%, achieving a cumulative return of 7.86% since inception [9] - The Convertible Bond Fund Index increased by 0.35%, with a cumulative return of 22.41% since inception [10] - The QDII Bond Fund Index decreased by 0.09%, with a cumulative return of 10.00% since inception [11] - The REITs Fund Index rose by 0.47%, achieving a cumulative return of 32.29% since inception [11] Fund Index Specifics - The Money Enhanced Strategy Index aims for liquidity management and seeks to outperform money market funds, focusing on relative performance and risk control [20] - The Short-term Bond Fund Index emphasizes liquidity management while ensuring drawdown control, primarily investing in stable-return funds [22] - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Index targets stable returns while controlling drawdowns, selecting funds with a balance of yield and risk management [24][25] - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Index focuses on a 10% equity center, selecting funds with a strong performance history and risk control [27] - The Medium Volatility Fixed Income + Index targets a 20% equity center, selecting funds with performance elasticity [30] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Index aims for a 30% equity center, focusing on funds with strong stock selection capabilities [31] - The Convertible Bond Fund Index selects funds with a significant allocation to convertible bonds, assessing performance and risk-adjusted returns [33] - The QDII Bond Fund Index includes overseas bonds, focusing on stable returns and good risk control [35][37] - The REITs Fund Index selects funds based on stable cash flows and operational stability [39]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a high-open and low-close trend, with external demand sectors (like AI and non-ferrous metals) outperforming internal demand sectors (like real estate and consumption). However, external demand stocks are at high levels, leading to increased speculation, while internal demand sectors show insufficient improvement, indicating limited opportunities for indices in the near term [3][12]. Group 1: Market Review and Observations - The central economic work conference held on December 10-11 emphasized a "steady progress" approach, focusing on quality improvement and policy coordination, with a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [4][12]. - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut during the December FOMC meeting, marking the third cut of the year. The market is now focused on the uncertainty of future rate cuts, leading to profit-taking and rotation from high-valuation tech stocks, exacerbating market differentiation [4][14]. - The Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations have risen significantly due to increasing inflation data and a depreciating yen, with the market anticipating limited global market impact from this communication [4][14]. Group 2: Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Active Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.65% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 15.60% since inception [5]. - The Value Equity Fund Selection Index fell by 1.14% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 3.94% since inception [6]. - The Balanced Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.28% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 9.33% since inception [7]. - The Growth Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 1.57% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 13.26% since inception [7]. - The Pharmaceutical Equity Fund Selection Index fell by 0.83% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 21.27% since inception [7]. - The Consumer Equity Fund Selection Index fell by 0.54% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 21.07% since inception [8]. - The Technology Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 2.40% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 21.50% since inception [8]. - The High-end Manufacturing Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 3.10% last week, with a cumulative excess return of -3.11% since inception [9]. - The Cyclical Equity Fund Selection Index fell by 0.09% last week, with a cumulative excess return of -0.42% since inception [10].