Core Viewpoint - The A-share equity market has shown resilience after a brief adjustment following the Shanghai Composite Index's breakthrough of 3600 points, indicating a potential upward trend despite short-term resistance [3][4]. Market Performance - The A-share market rebounded near the 20-day moving average, achieving five consecutive days of gains and closing above 3600 points for four days [3]. - The U.S. equity market also stabilized and rebounded quickly after initial pressure from non-farm employment data, reflecting strong performance [3]. - Various strategy indices recorded positive returns, with defensive style sectors outperforming after a prolonged correction [3]. Strategy Performance - The "Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy" and "Enhanced Equity Strategy" achieved returns of 1.826% and 1.620% respectively, while overseas equity strategies recorded a return of 0.610% [4][5]. - The "Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy" has shown strong stability since its inception, effectively reducing portfolio volatility while maintaining decent returns [10]. - The "Enhanced Equity Strategy" has performed closely to the benchmark, with potential for greater elasticity as market conditions improve [11]. Overseas Market Insights - The U.S. market has benefited from easing tariff expectations and strong earnings reports from tech companies, leading to a sustained upward trend [5]. - Despite being at historically high levels, the U.S. market is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend, with a focus on potential pullback opportunities for strategic positioning [5]. - The overseas equity allocation strategy has accumulated significant excess returns since its inception, driven by the tech sector's growth and the easing of tariff tensions [15]. Fund Strategy Overview - The "Cash Growth Fund Strategy" achieved a return of 0.027%, outperforming the benchmark, with cumulative excess returns since inception exceeding 0.39% [6][13]. - The "Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy" has shown strong performance since July 31, 2023, benefiting from the Fed's easing cycle and the global tech sector's momentum [15][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a diversified approach to fund selection, utilizing quantitative methods to identify suitable funds across different market conditions [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various ETF grid strategies focusing on Chinese internet, technology, software, and chip sectors, highlighting the potential for investment opportunities driven by regulatory changes and technological advancements [2][4][7][14]. Group 1: Chinese Internet ETF (159605.SZ) - The Chinese Internet ETF tracks the China Internet 30 Index, focusing on 30 leading Chinese internet companies listed in Hong Kong and the US, covering sectors like social media, e-commerce, gaming, and AI [4]. - Recent government reports emphasize the need to address "involution" in competition, particularly in the food delivery sector, promoting a healthier competitive environment [3]. - The ETF is positioned to benefit from a new wave of internet development driven by generative AI and a shift from "traffic-driven" to "technology + scenario-driven" business models [4]. Group 2: Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010.SH) - The Hang Seng Technology ETF tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, which includes 30 leading technology companies in Hong Kong, focusing on high-growth sectors such as new consumption, internet, biomedicine, and semiconductors [7]. - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 731.2 billion, indicating strong foreign interest and market liquidity [6]. - The current PE-TTM ratio of the Hang Seng Technology Index is 21.26, which is relatively low compared to its historical average, suggesting potential investment value [7]. Group 3: Software ETF (159852.SZ) - The Software ETF is influenced by government initiatives promoting "AI+" applications across various sectors, leading to significant advancements in the software industry [10]. - AI technologies are transforming software development processes, enhancing efficiency and driving a shift from labor-intensive to intelligent, value-creating models [11]. Group 4: Chip ETF (159995.SZ) - The Chip ETF is positioned amid a backdrop of easing restrictions on chip exports to China, although long-term challenges remain due to ongoing U.S. export controls [14]. - The establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund III, with a registered capital of RMB 344 billion, aims to accelerate domestic chip production and reduce reliance on foreign technology [14]. - The focus on domestic chip development is expected to enhance the entire supply chain from research and development to production, supporting the goal of technological independence [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recovery of the equity market supported by the banking sector, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.23% and the CSI 500 index by 1.78% during the week of August 4-8, 2025, although market structural instability is increasing [3][10] - The robotics industry is transitioning from "showcasing technology" to "practical applications," driven by technological advancements and cost reductions, which are expected to accelerate the adoption of robots in various sectors [4][11] - The military industry is gaining attention due to performance recovery expectations, upcoming military parades, and geopolitical tensions, making it a focal point for market participants [4][11] Group 2 - In the public fund market, many high-performing active equity funds have announced purchase limits to ensure stable operations and protect investors' interests, with notable funds like the China Europe Medical Innovation Fund achieving a return of 62.28% year-to-date as of August 8, 2025 [13] - The active equity fund indices showed positive performance, with the Active Stock Fund Selection Index rising by 1.55% and achieving a cumulative excess return of 12.73% since inception [5][14] - The Growth Stock Fund Selection Index recorded a rise of 1.05% with a cumulative excess return of 20.49% since inception, indicating strong performance in the growth sector [8][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment strategy of Chen Chen, the fund manager of Shenwan Hongyuan Global New Energy (QDII) fund, focusing on real corporate growth as the core driver for investment decisions, rather than short-term market expectations [18][19]. Group 1: Fund Manager Information - Chen Chen has a master's degree and has been involved in finance since 2013, with experience at major banks and investment firms before joining Shenwan Hongyuan in September 2021 [3][6]. - The Shenwan Hongyuan Global New Energy fund aims for long-term stable asset appreciation by investing in global new energy-related companies while strictly controlling portfolio risks [7]. Group 2: Investment Methodology - Chen's investment approach is characterized by deep research and a focus on the real growth of companies, assessing fundamental factors such as financial health, governance, and industry trends [12][13]. - The investment strategy includes identifying companies with reliable business models and inherent growth capabilities, emphasizing cash flow generation and competitive advantages [14][16]. Group 3: Investment Value Analysis - The Shenwan Hongyuan Global New Energy fund is positioned as a differentiated investment option in the energy sector, with a broader definition of new energy themes compared to domestic peers, which often focus on lithium and photovoltaic sectors [5][19]. - The fund is suitable for long-term holding or as a quality supplement to value-based portfolios, emphasizing intrinsic value assessment and financial stability [5][19]. Group 4: Performance and Market Position - The fund has shown resilience during market fluctuations, with a maximum drawdown of only -11.32% in 2024, indicating a differentiated investment approach compared to similar QDII funds [9][10]. - Since its inception, the fund's performance has been average compared to peers, primarily due to its investment scope limitations amid the AI industry revolution [10].

Market Review - The bond yields experienced fluctuations and declined last week (2025.08.04-2025.08.08), with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) rising by 0.08% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) increasing by 0.05%. The yields of government bonds across various maturities decreased, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields changing by -1.71bp, -1.91bp, -2.32bp, and -1.76bp respectively compared to the previous week [15][16]. - The credit bond yields across various maturities and ratings mostly declined, leading to a significant compression of credit spreads. The funding environment remained loose, and the new VAT policy boosted market sentiment towards bonds [15][16]. Market Observation - The US Treasury market stabilized with slight increases in yields. The overall volatility decreased, and the yields of various maturities saw minor upward movements. The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding potential interest rate cuts in September [17]. - The REITs secondary market experienced fluctuations, with a decrease in trading activity. The CSI REITs Total Return Index fell by 0.33% last week, with property rights performing better than operational rights. The market sentiment for REITs has cooled compared to earlier in the year, and trading activity has declined [17]. Public Fund Market Dynamics - On August 7, 2025, Morgan Stanley's Yingyuan Stable Three-Month Holding Period Mixed FOF was officially announced, raising 2.752 billion yuan on its first day, making it the first public FOF of 2025 to achieve "one-day fundraising." This fund adopts a diversified "fixed income +" strategy, limiting equity assets to no more than 30% [18]. - As of August 6, 2025, a total of 37 new public FOFs were established in the market this year, with a total fundraising scale exceeding 33.7 billion yuan, averaging about 910 million yuan per fund, marking a new high since 2023 [18]. Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Enhanced Index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 3.91% since inception [19]. - The Short-term Bond Fund Preferred Index increased by 0.06%, with a cumulative return of 4.13% since inception [20]. - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Preferred Index rose by 0.02%, with a cumulative return of 6.48% since inception [5]. - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Preferred Index increased by 0.31%, with a cumulative return of 3.28% since inception [6]. - The Medium Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Preferred Index rose by 0.42%, with a cumulative return of 3.09% since inception [7]. - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Preferred Index increased by 0.61%, with a cumulative return of 4.71% since inception [8]. - The Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index rose by 1.60%, with a cumulative return of 15.86% since inception [9]. - The QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index increased by 0.38%, with a cumulative return of 8.91% since inception [10]. - The REITs Fund Preferred Index fell by 0.48%, with a cumulative return of 37.50% since inception [11].

Key Points Summary Group 1: Important Events Review - The State Council issued an opinion on August 5 to gradually promote free preschool education, stating that from the autumn semester of 2025, public kindergartens will waive the care and education fees for children in their final year [2] - The 2025 World Robot Conference opened on August 8, featuring over 1,500 exhibits from more than 200 domestic and international robotics companies, including more than 100 new products, which is approximately double the number from last year [2] - On August 8, China National Railway Group announced the establishment of a new company for the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway with a registered capital of 95 billion RMB, marking a significant step in the construction of this strategic transportation artery [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The bond market showed signs of recovery as funding rates fell, and the adjustment of VAT policy stimulated banks' willingness to allocate to older bonds, with no unexpected disturbances from local government bond issuances [4] - The A-share market rebounded and reached a new high for the year, with strong market sentiment and a shift from growth sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals back to cyclical sectors influenced by expectations surrounding the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway [5] - The Hong Kong stock market also rebounded, but the momentum was generally weaker compared to the A-share market [6] - The US stock market demonstrated strong resilience, quickly rebounding after a previous week's decline, with the Nasdaq reaching a new high despite disappointing non-farm payroll data [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bond market pressure eased, with short-term focus on trading opportunities, as the negative impact of the stock-bond relationship weakened [8] - The stock market saw margin trading surpassing 2 trillion, indicating strong sentiment, although there are rising risks of overheating, suggesting caution against chasing high prices [9] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has decreased, but the market lacks marginal positive news, leading to a potentially volatile short-term outlook [10][11]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to a vacuum in incremental policy, with the Politburo meeting removing references to "rate cuts," indicating a lower probability of new stimulus policies [2][5] - The A-share market's profitability may decline amid overseas disturbances, despite a high likelihood of an extension of the US-China tariff exemption period [2][5] - Investment strategies should focus on two main areas: defensive stocks such as banks and non-bank financials, and opportunities in rare earths due to US-China tensions and price increases [2][5] Stock Market Factors - Last week, small-cap stocks outperformed, with a balanced preference for value and growth styles; however, volatility in both large and small-cap stocks increased [7] - The dispersion of excess returns among industry indices slightly increased, while the speed of industry rotation remained stable, with a significant decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks [7] - Trading concentration remained consistent, with the top 100 stocks and the top five industries maintaining their previous levels of trading volume [7] Market Activity - Market volatility rose sharply last week, and turnover rates continued to increase [8] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the strength of trends across all sectors slightly decreased; however, the basis momentum for precious metals increased, while other sectors remained stable [15] - Volatility across all sectors rose, and liquidity in the non-ferrous metals sector declined rapidly [15] Options Market Factors - Implied volatility for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices, which had been rising, began to decline, indicating that many market participants are starting to take risk precautions after a period of continuous gains [22] Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market demonstrated its defensive characteristics as the equity market adjusted, with the premium rate for bonds exceeding 100 yuan continuing to rise, surpassing the May peak [24] - The proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums has increased, indicating structural differences, while the trading volume in the convertible bond market remained stable [24]

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to a 3% value-added tax (VAT) [3][7] - As of August 3, 2025, 43 out of 46 public equity bank wealth management products have positive annualized returns this year, with 17 products exceeding 10% [3][8] - Ningyin Wealth Management has actively participated in IPO offline subscriptions, engaging in three instances within ten days [3][9][10] - Su Yin Wealth Management launched a "Wealth Management + Charity" product, directing excess returns to support leukemia patients from low-income families [3][11] Yield Performance - For the week of July 28 to August 3, 2025, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.38%, up 3 basis points from the previous week [3][13] - The bond market sentiment improved due to multiple factors, including sustained liquidity support from the central bank and favorable outcomes from political meetings and US-China tariff negotiations [3][17] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 3 basis points to 1.70%, while credit spreads continued to widen but at a slower pace [3][17] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 2.22%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points week-on-week, with credit spreads widening by 1.28 basis points [3][20] - The relationship between net value ratios and credit spreads is generally positive, indicating potential redemption pressure when net value ratios exceed 5% [3][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential investment opportunities in various ETFs, particularly focusing on technology, robotics, chips, and infrastructure sectors, driven by favorable market conditions and government policies [3][4][10][12]. Group 1: Technology Sector - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010.SH) is highlighted, with a projected net inflow of HKD 731.2 billion from southbound funds in the first half of 2025, which is 91% of last year's total net purchases [3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has a PE-TTM of 21.19 as of August 4, 2025, indicating a valuation at the 15.86% percentile of its historical range, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [4]. Group 2: Robotics Sector - The Robotics ETF (562500.SH) is positioned to benefit from government initiatives to develop intelligent robotics and new manufacturing equipment, with policies aimed at enhancing financing support for strategic sectors [6][7]. - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcased over 60 humanoid robots, indicating significant innovation and potential for commercialization in the robotics field [6]. Group 3: Chip Sector - The Chip ETF (159995.SZ) is influenced by the recent approval of H20 chip exports to China, signaling a temporary easing of U.S. export restrictions, although long-term challenges remain due to ongoing technology sanctions [9][10]. - The establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund with a registered capital of CNY 344 billion aims to bolster domestic chip manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign technology [10]. Group 4: Infrastructure Sector - The Infrastructure ETF (516950.SH) is set to benefit from the government's plan to issue CNY 1.3 trillion in special bonds and CNY 4.4 trillion in project financing, focusing on infrastructure and equipment upgrades [11]. - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Station project, with a total investment of CNY 1.2 trillion, is expected to drive demand across the entire infrastructure supply chain [11].

Macro Overview - The U.S. labor market shows signs of fatigue, with non-farm employment growth nearly stagnating over the past two months, which historically indicates economic distress or the need for intervention [4] - Despite the weak labor data, the probability of a recession remains manageable, with the New York Fed predicting a 28.71% chance of recession in the next 12 months [4] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in consumption and investment due to high interest rates and uncertainty in tariff policies, although the overall economic resilience was strong in the first half of the year with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% [4] Domestic Policy Insights - The current policy focus is on observing the economic conditions in consumption, exports, and real estate, with a shift towards long-term mechanisms for sustainable economic development [4] - The government is expected to prioritize high-quality economic development and establish long-term sustainable growth mechanisms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4] - If GDP growth falls below 4.7% in the third quarter, there may be considerations for additional policy measures [4] Market Strategy and Asset Allocation - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow upward trend, supported by strong economic fundamentals and high market activity, although valuation recovery may slow down [4] - The focus for investment should be on long-term allocations in sectors such as banking, dividends, and broad-based indices, with a cautious approach to chasing high valuations [4] - The market is witnessing a structural rotation with opportunities in themes like technology (AI, computing power, chips), military, pharmaceuticals, stablecoins, rare earths, and cyclical sectors [4] Asset Class Outlook - A-shares are viewed as relatively optimistic, while Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks maintain a neutral stance [6] - Credit bonds and convertible bonds are also seen as relatively optimistic, indicating a favorable outlook for fixed-income investments [6] - The outlook for commodities like oil remains cautious, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the global market [6]