Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations during the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 2.19 basis points to 1.40%, the 10-year yield increasing by 1.88 basis points to 1.81%, and the 30-year yield up by 1.50 basis points to 2.16% [3][15] - The central bank announced a resumption of bond purchases amounting to 20 billion yuan in October, which fell short of market expectations, contributing to a slight decline in bond market sentiment amid a strong stock market [15] - The U.S. Treasury yields showed a downward trend, with the 1-year yield decreasing by 7 basis points to 3.63% and the 2-year yield down by 5 basis points to 3.55% [15] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The scale of bond ETFs surpassed 700 billion yuan, reaching 700.44 billion yuan as of October 31, 2025, marking a significant increase from less than 180 billion yuan at the beginning of the year [4][18] - Among the 53 bond ETFs in the market, 50 have surpassed 1 billion yuan in scale, with 30 exceeding 10 billion yuan [18] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Market Enhanced Index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.27% since inception [19][20] - The Short-term Bond Fund Index increased by 0.02%, achieving a cumulative return of 4.45% since inception [20] - The Long-term Bond Fund Index saw a slight increase of 0.01%, with a cumulative return of 6.75% since inception [20] - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.12%, with a cumulative return of 4.71% since inception [20] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index increased by 0.24%, achieving a cumulative return of 8.17% since inception [20] - The Convertible Bond Fund Index rose by 0.46%, with a cumulative return of 23.51% since inception [20] - The QDII Bond Fund Index decreased by 0.17%, with a cumulative return of 10.27% since inception [20] - The REITs Fund Index fell by 1.21%, with a cumulative return of 31.61% since inception [20]

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant events affecting the Chinese economy, including tariff adjustments and trade data, indicating a mixed outlook for imports and exports, alongside ongoing market dynamics in the A-share and bond markets [2][4][5]. Important Events Review - On November 5, the State Council Tariff Commission announced a suspension of the 24% tariff on U.S. imports starting from November 10, 2025, while maintaining a 10% tariff [2]. - The 8th China International Import Expo commenced on November 5 in Shanghai, showcasing advanced products across various industries, enhancing the event's technological appeal [2]. - Customs data released on November 7 indicated that China's exports in October decreased by 0.8% year-on-year in RMB terms, while imports increased by 1.4%. In USD terms, exports fell by 1.1%, and imports rose by 1.0% [2]. Weekly Market Review - The bond market experienced slight fluctuations, with the central bank's announcement of a 20 billion yuan bond purchase in October falling short of market expectations, leading to a lack of sustained bullish momentum [4]. - The A-share market showed a strong sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, indicating a consolidation phase [5].

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The National Financial Supervision Administration issued a notice on October 27, 2025, promoting the healthy development of pension financial products, marking a transition from pilot programs to nationwide promotion [4][5] - The notice expands the pilot areas for pension financial products to the entire country and increases the fundraising limit for individual financial companies to five times their net capital minus risk capital [4][5] - The new regulations encourage the issuance of long-term products with maturities of 10 years or more, aiming to enhance the pension attributes of these products [4][5] - An "automatic connection" mechanism is established, allowing compliant pension financial products to be automatically included in the personal pension product list, simplifying the approval process [5] Performance of Financial Products - For the week of October 27 to November 2, 2025, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.29%, up by 1 basis point, while money market funds saw a yield of 1.16%, down by 1 basis point [3][8] - The yield difference between cash management products and money market funds increased to 0.13%, up by 2 basis points [3][8] - Overall, yields for pure fixed income and fixed income plus products increased during the same period [3][9] Market Conditions and Trends - The bond market yield is generally declining due to factors such as the central bank restarting government bond trading and a weaker manufacturing PMI [11] - The fourth quarter's bond market environment remains favorable, but market risk appetite has not shown significant recovery, leading to a continued "stock-bond seesaw" effect [11] - The current credit spread is at a historical low since September 2024, indicating limited value [14][16] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank financial products was 0.78%, down by 0.32 percentage points week-on-week, with the credit spread widening by 5.69 basis points [16] - The relationship between net value ratio and credit spread is generally positive, with potential redemption pressure on financial products if the net value ratio exceeds 5% and the credit spread adjusts significantly [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses investment opportunities in ETFs that align with China's economic and military development plans, particularly focusing on the military, new economy sectors, and Saudi Arabia's economic diversification efforts [3][4][6][8]. Group 1: Military Sector ETF - The Military Leaders ETF (512710.SH) is expected to benefit from China's 2025 defense budget of 1.81 trillion yuan, which represents a 7.2% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high. However, this budget still accounts for less than 1.3% of China's GDP, significantly lower than the U.S. and Russia [3][4]. - The ETF tracks the CSI Military Leaders Index, investing in leading companies in aerospace, missiles, and drones, which are poised to gain from a new round of military procurement cycles [4][5]. Group 2: New Economy ETF - The Hang Seng New Economy ETF (513320.SH) aligns with the "14th Five-Year Plan" that emphasizes high-level technological self-reliance and the capture of opportunities from the new technological revolution [6][7]. - This ETF tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index, covering sectors such as the internet, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy, which are expected to benefit from China's industrial upgrade and technological development [6][7]. Group 3: Saudi Arabia ETF - The Saudi ETF (159329.SZ) is linked to Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 plan, which aims to reduce oil dependency and diversify the economy [8][9]. - The ETF's holdings reflect this diversification, with over 40% in the financial sector and more than 20% in consumer and technology sectors, while traditional fossil fuels account for only about 10% [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Guidelines for Performance Comparison Benchmarks of Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds (Draft for Comments)" and the "Operational Details for Performance Comparison Benchmarks of Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds (Draft for Comments)" marks a significant step in enhancing the accountability of fund managers and promoting high-quality development in the public fund industry, aiming to standardize investment behavior and prevent style drift [3][5][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Benchmark Usage and Management - The guidelines clarify the norms for selecting and using performance benchmarks, emphasizing their representational role [4][6]. - Fund managers are required to embed benchmark management throughout the product lifecycle, establishing a comprehensive internal control mechanism [7][8]. - External supervision is strengthened by activating the roles of custodians, sales institutions, and evaluation agencies, creating a multi-party check-and-balance ecosystem [9]. - A one-year transition period is set for existing products to adjust benchmarks, ensuring market stability [10]. 2. Implementation and Impact - Traditional broad-based indices remain the mainstream benchmark choice for newly launched products, reflecting market recognition and maturity [13][14]. - Changes in benchmarks accurately reflect product positioning and investment styles, with many funds adjusting their benchmarks to align with their investment strategies [16][17]. - The bond fund sector shows a high concentration in benchmark selection, primarily using the "China Bond Comprehensive Price Index" [20][21]. 3. Future Policies and Long-term Effects - The new regulations aim to enhance the clarity and transparency of risk-return characteristics of fund products, ultimately serving to protect investors' fundamental interests [24][25]. - Future measures will include revising fund manager compensation assessment rules to link performance benchmarks with management evaluations, promoting a focus on long-term, risk-adjusted excess returns [24]. - The new rules significantly improve information transparency and investor rights protection, fostering a shift from absolute to relative return assessments among investors [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests a potential short-term shift in market style towards small-cap stocks due to high market sentiment and the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may lead to a weaker dollar providing support for the market [2][6] - Large-cap growth stocks, which have seen significant price increases, may face a phase of adjustment due to high valuations and pressure from performance verification [2][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with reasonable valuations and clear industry trends while being cautious of the adjustment risks associated with high-priced large-cap stocks [2][6] Group 2 - In the equity market, the style has shifted towards small-cap stocks, and the value style has gained preference over growth [8][10] - The volatility of both large-cap and value-growth styles has decreased, indicating a more stable market environment [8][10] - The market structure shows an increase in the dispersion of excess returns across industries, while the speed of industry rotation has decreased, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks has declined [8][10] Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of the non-ferrous and energy chemical sectors has increased, while other sectors have seen a decline in trend strength [13][14] - The volatility of most sectors has risen, except for agricultural products, indicating increased market uncertainty [13][14] - Liquidity performance varies across sectors, suggesting differing levels of market activity [13][14] Group 4 - In the options market, the implied volatility levels for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 have remained stable, but there is an increasing skew towards put options, indicating heightened risk hedging by market participants [18] - The ratio of open interest between put and call options continues to rise, reflecting a growing concern about potential risks [18] Group 5 - The convertible bond market has shown a slight recovery, with the premium rate for conversion remaining stable and showing a small upward trend [20] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has rebounded, indicating a shift in investor interest [20] - Market transaction volumes have increased, suggesting a more active trading environment [20]

分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 宏观主线梳理 | | 宏观主线梳理 | | --- | --- | | | 12月美联储或将继续降息，中美经贸磋商后关税有所降低，不过未来中美博弈仍将持续 | | | > 通胀表现温和,美联储12月大概率继续降息 > 9月,美国OPI低于市场预期,显示通账上行势头有所绘和,缓解了市场对通胀的焦虑。整体来看,关税对美国通胀整体影响有限, | | | 受到需求不足的影响,美国通胀未来或将维持平稳。 | | | > 10月30日美联储如期降息。我们认为,就业市场将延续废弱,在通胀可控的前提下,美联储大概率在12月继续降息25个基点。 | | 海外宏观 | > 中美吉隆坡经贸磋商后,美国对华关税再降10%,不过未来一年或将继续博弈。 | | | ◆ 目前美国对华普遍关税税率(不考虑行业关税)从前期30%继续回落10%至20%左右的水平。1、芬太尼关税10%(从20%阵至10%)。2. | | | 10%基础性关税(34%降至10%延续)。3、部分美国 ...

上市公司三季报，盈利复苏持续：人工智能应用的快速发展拉动了半导体、光模块等相关产业链的需求和业 绩，电子与计算机行业实现归母净利高增。在 "反内卷" 等政策的推动下，供需格局持续优化，工业品价格呈现 企稳回暖迹象。 公募基金三季报，加仓科技和资源品：公募基金三季报披露完毕，截至2025年三季度末，主动权益类基金持股 比例平均为88.73%。主动基金加仓思路主要围绕科技、资源品以及新能源展开。 分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025.10.27-2025.10.31）上证指数微涨 0.11%，沪深 300下跌 0.43%，中证1000上 涨1.18%，科创50下跌3.19%。虽然整数点位更多是心理层面的参考，但市场在此关键位置附近已出现轻微震 荡，多空分歧有所加剧。 权益市场观察： 中美元首会晤，短期摩擦缓和：中美元首在釜山会晤，进一步巩固前期对话成果。 公募基金市场动态： 10月31日，中国证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引（征求意见稿）》 （以下简称《指引》），中国证券投资基金业协会 ...

Market Overview - The bond market showed signs of recovery last week (October 27-31, 2025), with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 8.90 basis points to 1.38%, the 10-year yield down by 5.32 basis points to 1.80%, and the 30-year yield down by 6.95 basis points to 2.14%. This recovery was supported by the central bank's resumption of open market operations and the successful meeting between the US and Chinese presidents, which boosted market sentiment [3][14]. - Short-term outlook indicates that the benefits of the central bank's bond purchases have largely been priced in. The stock market's slow bullish trend may continue to suppress bond market sentiment, while upcoming fund rate regulations could lead to redemptions and portfolio adjustments, causing temporary disruptions in the bond market [14]. Public Fund Market Dynamics - On October 31, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a draft guideline for the performance comparison benchmarks of publicly offered securities investment funds, seeking public feedback. This guideline emphasizes the representation, constraint, evaluation, and interaction of performance benchmarks [17][18][19][20]. Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Enhanced Index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.24% since inception [4]. - The Short-term Bond Fund Index increased by 0.07%, achieving a cumulative return of 4.42% since inception [5]. - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Index saw a rise of 0.28%, with a cumulative return of 6.74% since inception [6]. - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index increased by 0.37%, with a cumulative return of 4.58% since inception [7]. - The Medium Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.33%, achieving a cumulative return of 6.04% since inception [8]. - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index increased by 0.32%, with a cumulative return of 7.90% since inception [9]. - The Convertible Bond Fund Index rose by 0.94%, achieving a cumulative return of 22.94% since inception [10]. - The QDII Bond Fund Index decreased by 0.07%, with a cumulative return of 10.46% since inception [11]. - The REITs Fund Index increased by 0.99%, achieving a cumulative return of 33.23% since inception [12].

Key Points Summary Group 1: Important Events Review - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, citing moderate economic expansion, a slight increase in unemployment, and rising inflation levels since the beginning of the year [2] - China and the U.S. reached a consensus on various trade issues during a meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Trump, including maritime and logistics measures, tariff extensions, and agricultural trade [2] - In the first three quarters, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365,877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with significant growth in staple and upgraded goods [2] Group 2: Economic Planning and Policy - China released the full text of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), emphasizing economic growth within a reasonable range and the role of domestic demand in driving growth, alongside increased focus on national security and technology goals [3] - The People's Bank of China announced the resumption of government bond trading operations, indicating a positive outlook for the bond market after a period of suspension due to market imbalances [3] - The U.S. Senate voted to terminate President Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, reflecting a shift in trade policy direction [3] Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October was reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [4] - The production index and new orders index for October were 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, showing declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [4]