踪中证军工龙头指数,主要投资于航空装备、军工 电子、导弹、无人机等军工细分领域的龙头企业, 有望充分受益于新一轮军工采购周期下行业的基本 面改善。 图1: 军工龙头 ETF(512710.SH) 网格策略回测收益曲线, 军工龙头ETF(512710.SH) 资料来源:Wind. 华宝证券研究创新部, THE STE ETF网格策略 ETF网格策略重点关注标的 (1) 军工龙头ETF (512710.SH) "十五五规划"提出"如期实现建军一百年奋 斗目标，高质量推进国防和军队现代化""加快先 进战斗力建设"。据央视新闻报道，我国2025年国 防预算1.81万亿元，同比增长7.2%，创历史新高， 但该预算占我国GDP比重仍低于1.3%，远低于美国 的3.5%和俄罗斯的6.3%。2025年处于"十四五" 收官之年与"十五五"规划衔接之际，在全球地缘 政治形势日趋复杂,与2027年建军百年目标的背景 下，我国国防预算占GDP比重有望进一步提高，国 防科技工业体系也有望进一步发展优化。该ETF跟 行业龙头股,提供了高效分享软件行业在自主可控 与AI技术融合领域中长期成长红利的投资工具。 图3:软件ETF(159852 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in the A-share market, indicating a continuation of volume contraction and a rotation of themes, with market participants awaiting new guiding signals [3][11]. - The A-share market saw a slight increase in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the CSI 300 by 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.86%, indicating a stronger performance in growth styles compared to value styles [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 16,870 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous week, reflecting a cautious market sentiment as it approaches significant policy meetings [11]. Group 2 - The non-bank financial sector is influenced by the recent notification from the financial regulatory authority, which aims to encourage insurance funds to invest more in specific equity assets by adjusting risk factors [4][12]. - The commercial aerospace sector has shown active performance due to recent event-driven catalysts, with significant developments in rocket launches and tests, suggesting a potential shift from emotional to logical investment strategies [4][12][13]. - Precious metals, particularly silver, have experienced a rapid price increase due to global liquidity recovery and supply-demand dynamics, with long-term trends expected to be influenced by the narrative of shrinking dollar credit [4][13]. Group 3 - The public fund market is undergoing a transformation with the introduction of new performance assessment guidelines aimed at correcting past issues of short-term incentives and soft accountability, promoting a focus on value creation and high-quality development [4][14]. - The guidelines emphasize a core assessment system based on investment returns, aiming to align the interests of fund managers with long-term returns for investors [14]. Group 4 - The active equity fund indices showed positive performance, with the Active Stock Fund Selection Index rising by 1.64% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 15.40% since inception [5]. - The Value Stock Fund Selection Index increased by 1.62%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.96% since inception, while the Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index rose by 1.00%, achieving a cumulative excess return of 9.27% [6][7]. - The Growth Stock Fund Selection Index saw a smaller increase of 0.64%, with a cumulative excess return of 13.45%, while the Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index decreased by 1.73%, but still recorded a cumulative excess return of 21.62% [8][9].

分析师：孙书娜 登记编号：S0890523070001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 市场回顾： 上周债市表现偏弱，1年期国债收益率维持1.40%，10年期国债收益率继续上行0.68BP至1.85%，30 年期国债收益率大幅上行7.2BP至2.26%。债市整体受权益市场情绪回暖、年末银行卖债兑现浮盈的需求，持续 呈短端震荡、长端走弱的趋势，尤其是超长债调整幅度较大。目前来看债市年末利空扰动仍存，当前仍建议维 持久期中性，需耐心等待配置时机。 公募基金市场动态 ： 基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引征求意见稿下发，提及固收产品需更重视信用和流动性管 理。 泛固收基金指数表现跟踪 ： 货币增强指数： 上周收涨0.02%，成立以来累计录得4.37%的收益。 短期债基优选： 上周收跌0.01%，成立以来累计录得4.50%的收益。 中长期债基优选：上周收跌0.15%，成立以来累计录得6.58%的收益。 低波固收+基金优选：上周收跌0.01%，成立以来累计录得4.24%的收益。 中波固收+基金优选：上周收涨0.51%，成立以来累计录得6.15%的收益。 高波固收+基金优选：上周收涨0.43% ...

2、12月5日，《人民日报》刊发中国证监会主席吴清的署名文章，题为《提高资本市 场制度的包容性适应性（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》，认为我国经济长期 向好，资本市场发展基础良好，但仍存在上市公司结构待优化、中长期资金不足、内 外风险交织等问题。需深化改革，重点做好三方面工作：一是加大力度支持科技创 新；二是满足投资者多元化需求，拓宽中长期资金入市渠道；三是精准高效监管，提 升风险防控能力。 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 1、12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新 格局"为主题，进行第十七次专题学习。国务院总理李强指出，新型城镇化是扩大内需 和促进产业升级、做强国内大循环的重要载体，要从中国式现代化全局的高度把握新 型城镇化的使命任务。要深入实施城市更新行动，把城市更新和消除安全隐患、稳楼 市等工作结合起来，扎实推进好房子建设和房地产高质量发展。 3、12月5日消息，国家金融监督管理总局近日发布关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因 子的通知，保险公司持仓时间超过三年的沪深30 ...

Macro Overview - The U.S. labor market is slowly cooling down, with a high probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [4] - In September, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly better than expected, although previous months' data was revised downwards, indicating ongoing weakness in the labor market [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates in December, as the job market shows signs of slowing down, while inflation remains manageable [4] - Domestic economic pressures are rising, but the annual growth target of 5% is still likely to be achieved [4] - The fourth quarter GDP growth rate is expected to drop to around 4.5%, with internal demand pressures increasing, particularly in consumption and investment [4] - The overall policy environment is expected to remain stable, with less urgency for new policies, although there will be a focus on technology innovation and expanding domestic demand [4] A-share Strategy and Views - The market is transitioning from a defensive to an offensive stance, with a focus on technology and growth sectors [4] - Economic fundamentals indicate increased pressure, with investment and consumption declining, while price indices are stabilizing [4] - The liquidity environment is tightening, with A-share trading volumes decreasing as year-end activity is weaker than in the third quarter [4] - External liquidity concerns are easing, with improved relations between China and the U.S. and a more favorable external environment [4] - December is seen as a period for positioning ahead of the spring market, with expectations for a rebound in market sentiment in early 2026 [4] Industry/Style Focus - The market is shifting towards technology and growth opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, semiconductors, and new energy [4] - The volatility risk has decreased, and the market is expected to stabilize, making it a good time to focus on high-growth sectors [4] - The strategy includes a diversified approach, considering global assets such as Japanese and European stocks, as well as gold [6]

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the recent changes in the asset management industry in China, particularly the renaming of the "China Banking and Insurance Asset Management Association," which signifies a shift towards a more integrated self-regulatory framework in the asset management sector [5][6][7]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The official renaming of the "China Banking and Insurance Asset Management Association" has been completed, marking a significant step in the association's integration process [5]. - The association's membership has expanded to include various financial institutions, indicating a move towards a cross-industry self-regulatory platform [6]. - The evolution of the association reflects a shift from "institutional regulation" to "functional regulation" in China's asset management industry, particularly following the implementation of the asset management new regulations in 2018 [6][7]. Innovations in the Industry - On November 24, the domestic GPU company, Moer Thread, launched its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with an issue price of 114.28 yuan per share, raising 8 billion yuan, marking the largest IPO on the board in 2025 [8]. - Ningyin Wealth Management and Xingyin Wealth Management participated in the IPO, with Ningyin's six products receiving approximately 3.93 million yuan in allocations, the highest among wealth management companies [8]. - Zhongyou Wealth Management has introduced a multi-asset and multi-strategy product series aimed at addressing investment challenges in the current low-interest-rate environment [10]. Performance of Financial Products - Cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.28%, a 1 basis point increase week-on-week, while money market funds saw a decline to 1.16% [11]. - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with yields generally rising due to mixed market factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing economic pressures [12]. - The current environment for the bond market remains generally favorable, but significant constraints exist, including low sensitivity to fundamental factors and ongoing uncertainties related to public fund sales regulations [12][5]. Tracking of Net Asset Value - The net asset value of bank wealth management products rose to 2.32%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points week-on-week, while credit spreads widened by 5.11 basis points [20]. - The relationship between net asset value and credit spreads indicates potential redemption pressures when net asset values exceed 5% and credit spreads widen significantly [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the A-share market is showing signs of stabilization and potential upward movement after a period of adjustment, influenced by both internal and external factors [3][4] - The overseas market is experiencing similar trends, with the U.S. stock market recovering from previous adjustments due to the resolution of government shutdown concerns and renewed interest in interest rate cuts [3][4] Group 2 - The quantitative strategy allocation suggests prioritizing stock enhancement strategies over overseas equity strategies and low-volatility strategies, indicating a preference for more flexible investment approaches in the current market environment [4] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term, despite short-term resistance, as the market shows signs of stabilization after adjustments [4][5] Group 3 - The performance of various fund strategies shows that the low-volatility fund strategy achieved a return of 1.585% this week, while the stock enhancement strategy returned 2.072%, indicating varying levels of performance among different strategies [5][8] - The overseas equity allocation fund strategy recorded a return of 3.244%, reflecting a positive outlook for U.S. equities driven by technological advancements and economic stability [6][8] Group 4 - The low-volatility fund strategy has demonstrated strong stability and lower volatility compared to the benchmark, effectively reducing portfolio fluctuations while maintaining decent returns [9][20] - The stock enhancement fund strategy aims to identify funds with strong alpha generation capabilities, which may perform better as market conditions improve [11][21] Group 5 - The cash-enhancing fund strategy has consistently outperformed its benchmark, providing a reliable option for cash management with accumulated excess returns since its inception [13][22] - The overseas equity allocation fund strategy has accumulated significant excess returns, benefiting from the global technology sector's growth and the easing of short-term risks [15][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant advancements in AI applications across various sectors, particularly in internet services, automotive, military, and robotics, highlighting the potential for investment opportunities in related ETFs as these technologies scale up and become more integrated into core business operations [3][4][10][13]. Group 1: Internet Sector - The Chinese internet sector is witnessing a surge in AI product launches, with Alibaba's AI assistant achieving over 10 million downloads within a week of its public testing [3]. - The integration of AI into core products enhances user engagement and service capabilities, thereby solidifying traffic advantages and creating new revenue streams for internet companies [4]. Group 2: Automotive Sector - Recent government policies, such as vehicle purchase tax exemptions and subsidies for new energy vehicles, have effectively boosted domestic demand for electric vehicles [6][7]. - China's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.47 million units by September 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 28.1%, while exports surged to 1.758 million units, up 89.4% [7]. Group 3: Military Sector - China's defense budget for 2025 is set at 1.81 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase, indicating a focus on modernizing military capabilities [10]. - The military ETF tracks the aerospace and defense sectors, which are expected to benefit from a new procurement cycle and improved industry fundamentals [10]. Group 4: Robotics Sector - The Chinese government is actively promoting the development of intelligent robots and advanced manufacturing equipment, with significant investments in the robotics sector exceeding 24 billion yuan by mid-2025 [13]. - The country is transitioning from concept validation to large-scale application of robotics, supported by a complete supply chain and strong commercialization capabilities [13].

分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）小盘股涨幅居前，成长风格表现强于价值风格，全A日均交 易额 17312 亿，环比上周继续下降，市场活跃度仍待修复。临近年末，各路资金面临业绩考核收尾，调仓换 股、求稳减少净值波动成为主流行为，增量资金入场意愿较低。 权益市场观察： 海外风险释放：继10月初的贸易争端后，全球各方冲突呈现持续降温的发展势头。2026年是美国的中期选举 年，近期特朗普政府在共和党党外和党内均遭遇不小挑战，接下来其重心或将重新聚焦于美国国内。 科技方向：在存量博弈的背景下，在科技方向内部，资金还出现了明显的"拉踩"现象。上周国内科技板块的主 要共识也集中于谷歌产业链。 商业航天：短期来看，商业航天呈现比较典型的主题投资范式，跟随重点事件或政策密集落地展开行情；长期 来看，可重复使用/大型液体火箭的新技术突破、发射场建设加速、终端应用场景落地将共同推动产业规模化发 展。 主动权益基金指数表现跟踪： 主动股基优选指数：上周收涨2.88%，成立以来累计录得 ...

Market Overview - The bond market showed weak performance last week, with the 1-year government bond yield remaining at 1.40%, the 10-year yield rising by 2.46 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30-year yield increasing by 2.75 basis points to 2.19%. This trend was influenced by the recovery in equity market sentiment and events related to Vanke's bond extension, leading to a short-end fluctuation and a weakening long-end [3][14] - The current bond market configuration offers a phase of improved cost-effectiveness, with limited room for further significant yield increases. The recommendation is to adopt a trading strategy focused on wave operations while extending the duration of interest rate bonds and positioning in liquid credit bonds, awaiting a recovery in market sentiment [3][14] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced a draft for public consultation regarding the pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs), indicating an upcoming expansion in the REITs market [17] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Enhanced Index rose by 0.02% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.35% since inception [19] - The Short-term Bond Fund Index remained flat, with a cumulative return of 4.50% since inception [4][19] - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Index decreased by 0.10%, with a cumulative return of 6.75% since inception [5][19] - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.02%, with a cumulative return of 4.25% since inception [6][19] - The Medium Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index increased by 0.44%, with a cumulative return of 5.61% since inception [7][19] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.38%, with a cumulative return of 7.29% since inception [8][19] - The Convertible Bond Fund Index increased by 0.24%, with a cumulative return of 21.33% since inception [9][19] - The QDII Bond Fund Index rose by 0.12%, with a cumulative return of 10.33% since inception [10][19] - The REITs Fund Index increased by 0.74%, with a cumulative return of 33.22% since inception [11][19]