Important Events Review - On January 14, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved an adjustment to the financing margin ratio for the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, increasing the minimum financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% for new financing contracts. This adjustment aims to reduce leverage levels and protect investors' rights, promoting long-term market stability [2] - On January 15, the People's Bank of China introduced eight structural monetary policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools and an expansion of the total quota for these tools by approximately 1.1 trillion yuan [2] - On January 15, the People's Bank of China released the 2025 financial statistics report, indicating that the total social financing scale increased by 35.6 trillion yuan for the year, which is 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year. As of the end of December, the broad money (M2) balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth, while the narrow money (M1) balance was 115.51 trillion yuan, showing a 3.8% year-on-year increase [2]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant growth expected in index-based wealth management products by 2025, driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics [3][4][21] - The article discusses the transition of wealth management companies towards net value transformation and the introduction of independent qualifications for interest rate derivatives, enhancing risk management capabilities [3][4][10] - It highlights the active participation of wealth management companies in IPOs of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, supporting green transformation and technology enterprises [3][10] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - In December, the wealth management industry saw a slight decrease in the total scale of products to 31.66 trillion yuan, a 0.16% decrease month-on-month but a 6.69% increase year-on-year [4][12] - The annualized yield for cash management products rose to 1.34%, an increase of 5.57 basis points, while pure fixed-income products saw a yield of 2.06% [4][12] - The introduction of the "Management Measures for Information Disclosure of Asset Management Products by Banking and Insurance Institutions" marks a new phase in the regulatory framework, focusing on standardized disclosure practices [3][10][21] New Product Launches - In December, the scale of newly issued wealth management products increased, maintaining a focus on fixed income and cash management products, with a notable trend towards lower performance benchmarks for new fixed income + products [4][12] - Wealth management companies are increasingly adopting index-based products, with a focus on transparency and risk distribution, as they seek to differentiate themselves in a competitive market [3][4][10] - The launch of innovative products, such as the "Star Whale Global+" product by Su Yin Wealth Management, reflects a trend towards diversified asset allocation strategies [10][12] Performance Metrics - The closed-end product compliance rate was 82.91%, while the open-end product compliance rate was 58.61%, indicating a slight decline in performance metrics compared to the previous month [5][12] - The overall market for wealth management products experienced a net value decline rate of 4.13%, which is an increase of 1.3 percentage points month-on-month [4][5] Industry Innovation - Wealth management companies are actively engaging in innovative strategies, such as the introduction of ETF covered call strategy indices to provide transparent yield benchmarks in volatile markets [3][10] - The first-ever pledge-style repurchase transaction of a science and technology bond ETF by Su Yin Wealth Management signifies a shift towards proactive asset management and liquidity optimization [3][10] - The article notes the importance of enhancing research capabilities and risk management strategies as wealth management firms navigate a changing regulatory landscape and market conditions [3][10][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various ETF grid strategies focusing on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and coal, highlighting their potential for investment based on market trends and economic policies. Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892.5Z) is expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, which may lower financing costs for pharmaceutical companies, thereby enhancing their R&D capabilities [3][4]. - As of January 2026, China holds approximately 30% of the global new drug pipeline, ranking second worldwide. In 2025, 76 innovative drugs were approved in China, with domestic innovations accounting for 80.85% of chemical drugs and 91.30% of biological products [3][4]. - The total value of innovative drug licensing transactions in China exceeded $130 billion in 2025, with over 150 deals, indicating a significant enhancement in China's innovative drug capabilities and acceleration in globalization [3][4]. Group 2: Brokerage Sector - The Brokerage ETF (159842.5Z) reflects a strong performance in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from a low of 3040 points to over 4000 points, marking an annual increase of 18.41%. The total trading volume in A-shares reached 420.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 62.64% [7][8]. - By the end of 2025, the financing balance in A-shares exceeded 2.52 trillion yuan, growing over 36% compared to the end of 2024, indicating a robust expansion in market activity [7][8]. - The ongoing reforms in the capital market are expected to enhance the efficiency of capital utilization among leading brokerages, thereby expanding their growth potential [8]. Group 3: New Economy Sector - The New Economy ETF (159822.SZ) aims to track the S&P China New Economy Index, focusing on high-growth sectors such as artificial intelligence, internet, biotechnology, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are crucial for capturing new economic growth drivers in China [11]. Group 4: Coal Sector - The Coal ETF (515220.SH) is positioned to benefit from the central economic work conference's focus on controlling new capacity and improving the coal industry's supply-demand fundamentals, which may enhance profitability [15]. - As of January 2026, the coal sector's dividend yield reached 5.52%, significantly higher than the market average and the yield on ten-year government bonds, indicating strong investment value in the medium to long term [15].

Investment Highlights - The equity market has shown a recovery since December 2025, with major indices recording monthly gains. The cyclical and growth sectors performed well, while the value sector lagged behind. Notably, the defense, non-ferrous metals, and communication sectors saw significant increases of 21.24%, 13.03%, and 12.82% respectively, while real estate, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals experienced declines of -4.47%, -4.34%, and -4.09% respectively [6][11][12] - The bond market faced overall weakness in December, with long-term and ultra-long-term bonds performing poorly. The yield curve steepened, and the overall performance of the bond market was subdued due to various factors, including supply pressures and profit-taking by institutions at year-end [7][20] Active Equity Fund Selection Strategy - Since December 2025, there has been a shift from defensive to offensive market strategies, with a recovery in risk appetite. The central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and focused on structural adjustments and technological innovation, particularly in the "AI +" sector [2][12][13] - The current environment supports asset revaluation, with a focus on sectors driven by both "story and performance," such as the AI industry chain and commercial aerospace. Additionally, traditional industries like chemicals and engineering machinery are highlighted for their reasonable valuations and potential for improved return on equity (ROE) [2][15] Fixed Income Fund Selection Strategy - The outlook for January suggests a potential short-term rebound in the bond market, but a cautious approach is advised due to ongoing supply pressures and limited room for interest rate cuts. The strategy continues to favor flexible bond products while maintaining duration neutrality [3][20] - The pure bond fund index has shown stability, with slight increases in various bond fund indices, indicating a mixed performance landscape in the bond market [7][22] Historical Performance Review - Since the construction of the active equity selection index on May 11, 2023, it has achieved a cumulative net value of 1.4934, outperforming the benchmark by 20.21%. The index recorded a return of 6.61% since the December 2025 monthly configuration report [17][22] - The short-term bond fund selection index has also shown positive performance, with a cumulative net value of 1.4637, exceeding its benchmark by 0.5434% since its inception [22][30]

Investment Outlook - The A-share "spring market" continues, with short-term fluctuations expected but a stable long-term trend. Recent economic data and positive sentiment have led to sustained increases in A-shares, with potential for short-term upward volatility. In the medium to long term, high-growth sectors remain valuable, and the market is expected to continue developing. It is recommended to selectively invest in industries with upward momentum during dips and to anticipate further market developments [1][3]. Equity Market Analysis - In the past week, market styles have favored small-cap stocks, while the growth style has continued to dominate over value, maintaining the trend observed since the beginning of the year. The volatility of both small and large-cap styles, as well as growth and value styles, has increased, leading to a widening gap in returns between styles. The dispersion of excess returns among industries has decreased, while the speed of industry rotation has shown a slight rebound from low levels, with an overall increase in the proportion of rising constituent stocks [5][6][7]. Commodity Market Insights - In the commodity market, the strength of the black metal sector has significantly increased, while the non-ferrous sector remains at a high level. Other sectors have seen a decline in trend strength. The basis momentum has risen across most sectors, except for agricultural products, which have seen a decrease. Volatility has increased in all sectors except for agricultural products, which have experienced a decline. Liquidity in the precious metals sector has slightly decreased, while other sectors have seen an increase [17][18]. Options Market Overview - The implied volatility of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 has rapidly increased, with a corresponding rise in the skew of call options for both indices, indicating heightened market enthusiasm [24]. Convertible Bond Market Analysis - The convertible bond market has risen alongside the equity market. The premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan has reached a new high, significantly above the previous average level. The proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums has not decreased significantly, indicating limited upward movement for these bonds. Market transaction volume has increased, approaching a one-year peak [27].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82% in the first week, surpassing 4100 points, driven by sectors like satellite industry and AI applications [3] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has experienced a "New Year Red" with significant gains, particularly in sectors such as semiconductors, robotics, and chemicals, while some sectors expected to improve this year have yet to perform [3] - The US stock market is facing uncertainty due to geopolitical issues, economic data, and Federal Reserve independence, leading to mixed performances within the market, with the Nasdaq Index rising 1.88% and the Russell 2000 Index increasing by 4.62% [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company maintains a positive outlook on A-share investment opportunities, suggesting a focus on high elasticity sectors and a preference for stock enhancement strategies due to the current market conditions [4] - For overseas markets, the focus has shifted from tariff risks to AI demand and interest rate trends, with a cautious approach recommended due to potential risks in AI investments and macroeconomic factors [4] Group 3: Fund Strategy Performance - The Constant Low Volatility Fund Strategy Index recorded a weekly return of 1.806% with an excess return of -3.045%, while the Stock Enhancement Fund Strategy Index achieved a weekly return of 3.329% with an excess return of -1.459% [5] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy Index reported a weekly return of 0.034%, outperforming the benchmark, while the Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy recorded a weekly return of 0.419% with an excess return of -4.625% [6][7] Group 4: Fund Composition Insights - The Constant Low Volatility Fund has maintained low volatility and has shown significant excess returns since its strategy launch, proving effective in volatile market conditions [10] - The Stock Enhancement Fund aims to identify funds with strong alpha generation capabilities, showing promise for better performance as market conditions improve [11] - The Cash Growth Fund has consistently outperformed benchmarks, providing effective cash management solutions for investors [12] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund has benefited from global tech trends and has accumulated high excess returns since its strategy implementation [13]

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The A-share market continued its upward trend in the first week of 2026 (January 5-9), with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 16-day winning streak and surpassing 4100 points. Major broad-based indices generally rose and reached new highs during the week [1][5] - Market trading remained highly active, with Friday's trading volume returning to the peak of 3 trillion yuan, and the margin financing and securities lending scale exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [1][5] - The market's robust performance was primarily driven by bottom-up growth themes, particularly in technology sectors such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, and brain-computer interfaces, with small and mid-cap stocks significantly outperforming [1][5] - The brain-computer interface sector was notably active, driven by expectations of Neuralink's mass production and the establishment of domestic companies, alongside positive sentiment from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][6] - The commercial aerospace sector also saw continuous attention due to an IPO boom and supportive policies, with funds increasingly focusing on sub-sectors like space computing and solar power in space [6] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market experienced a "V-shaped reversal" during the week, with the 1-year government bond yield declining by 4.35 basis points to 1.29%, while the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rose by 3.55 basis points to 1.88% and 4.95 basis points to 2.30%, respectively [2][9] - The bond market sentiment showed slight stabilization, but the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the medium term remains low, and further monetary policy easing is not expected [2][9] - Despite the better-than-expected implementation of new public fund fee regulations, the bond market lacks positive catalysts, and with the ongoing spring rally in the equity market, the bond market may experience short-term rebounds but is likely to maintain a neutral stance in the medium term [2][9] Macro Economic Outlook - The U.S. job market shows resilience but also structural pressures, with inflation data expected to have limited risk of a strong rebound. The market has already priced in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in January [7][8] - Overall market liquidity is neutral to optimistic, with potential continued inflows of external funds due to profit-taking effects, suggesting that the market may continue its upward trend [7][8]

Key Points Summary Important Events Review - On January 3, 2026, U.S. President Trump announced a military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, claiming they would face criminal charges in New York, and stated that the U.S. would "temporarily run" Venezuela [2] - The People's Bank of China held a work meeting on January 5-6, 2026, emphasizing the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to enhance financial services for high-quality economic development [2] - The Ministry of Finance announced plans for the issuance of government bonds in the first quarter of 2026, with a total planned scale of approximately 1.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy stance [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the regulations on sales fees for public securities investment funds, reducing costs for investors and shortening the redemption fee exemption period for institutional investors from six months to one month [2] Weekly Market Review - The bond market performed poorly due to significant capital diversion to the stock market, which saw indices surpass 4100 points, and the central bank's bond purchases were lower than expected, with December 2025 purchases at only 50 billion yuan [5] - The central bank's work meeting in 2026 reiterated the commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, indicating that while rate cuts are still possible, the extent and certainty are relatively low, which may weaken early-year rate cut expectations [6] - The A-share market experienced a significant rise, with the manufacturing PMI for December 2025 rebounding to 50.1, indicating a return to expansion and increasing market expectations for economic recovery [7]

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - On December 31, the China Securities Regulatory Commission officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds," effective from January 1, 2026, marking the full implementation of the third phase of fee reform in the public fund industry aimed at standardizing sales order, reducing investor costs, and promoting long-term investment concepts [3][7] - The new regulations significantly relax the redemption fee arrangements for bond funds, allowing individual investors to redeem index and bond funds after holding them for 7 days, and institutional investors after 30 days, alleviating liquidity concerns in the bond market [7][8] - The launch of the new direct connection system by CCB Wealth Management on December 29 enhances the standardization of the industry, with a focus on automating and standardizing data reporting, thereby improving accuracy and timeliness [10][11] Yield Performance - For the week of December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.35%, up 5 basis points, while money market funds saw a decline to 1.19%, down 2 basis points, resulting in a yield spread of 0.16% [4][13] - The bond market exhibited a volatile trend, with the yield on 10-year government bonds remaining stable at 1.84% and the yield on 30-year bonds rising by 3 basis points to 2.25% [4][15] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is expected to remain subdued, influenced by factors such as mixed expectations on monetary policy, significant supply pressure from long-term government bonds, and the ongoing "stock-bond seesaw" effect impacting fund flows [5][15] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 0.86%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points, while credit spreads widened by 4.12 basis points [5][17] - The relationship between net value ratios and credit spreads is generally positive, with significant movements in either potentially indicating redemption pressures on wealth management products [17]

投资要点 回顾2025年，权益市场整体表现优秀，呈上行趋势，中证全指全年录得24.60%的收益，上证指数也攀升至4000点附近。但期间不乏大幅 波动的行情，年初开启春季行情前的大幅调整，4月份受到特朗普对等关税冲击的回落，再到经历一轮上涨后11月份的行情波动，这些时 点都影响着账户的波动表现，同时也较考验投资者的持有信心 。 常青低波策略2025年持续保持低波动的特征，策略波动表现与预期相符，在市场出现风险事件的时间点，均能够起到有效的降波作用。降 低波动的同时也不意味着放弃上行收益，常青低波依旧于2025年录得接近15%的收益。股基增强策略受制于均衡基金的选择，在进攻性上 有所劣势，但依旧可以作为有效的增加弹性的配置工具，结合本系列跟踪周报的配置观点，能够进一步优化风险收益比 。 分析师：李亭函 登记编号：S0890519080001 分析师：黄浩 登记编号：S0890524110001 海外市场同样也有相似的表现特征，整体上录得较高收益，期间同样经历风险事件带来的较大波动，2025年海外权益配置策略录得 13.98%的收益。 量化策略配置观点： 股基增强策略> 常青低波策略> 海外权益策略 A股方面，我们 ...