5月7日，证监会下发了《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》（下文简称《行动方案》），《行动方案》从提升投资 者回报和重视基金投资相对基准的超额收益等方面提出了改革方向，市场也热议当前公募基金相对基准的偏离和未来 的资金配置转移等问题。本文尝试从实现监管目标入手，考察当前公募基金可能的行为以及资金配置的变化。 1. 政策立足长期，短期对市场影响或被高估 我们认为，《行动方案》既为公募基金的改革指明了方向，也关注到市场现状和注重长期效果，其具体条款对基金经 理行为和资金的影响都偏向长期，短期对市场的影响更多来自情绪面。主要的原因如下： 首先，未来公募基金可能会根据实际投资特征调整业绩基准，而不是简单向现有的基准靠拢。 当前公募基金约有40%的产品业绩比较基准是沪深300指数，因此市场上普遍以沪深300的行业分布和当前公募的行业 计算偏离和可能带来的调整资金， 这种计算方式高估了调仓资金的金额 ，未考虑在业绩基准重要性提升之后基金经 理普遍将选择更匹配自己投资风格的指数作为业绩基准的情况。 根据《行动方案》，未来将下发《公募基金业绩比较基准指引》，给出进一步明确的可选业绩基准，在更加重视业绩 基准的新时代，公募基金很 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment is recovering, with a short-term bullish outlook based on the sentiment model [1] - The sentiment structure indicator has shown significant fluctuations over the past five years, with a notable low position in 2023, but has recently risen to a score of 2 as of May 16, suggesting further recovery [1] - The model indicates that market sentiment has been improving for 17 consecutive trading days since the low point on April 18 [1] Group 2 - Future sentiment recovery requires dual support from trading volume and investment themes, as the market's risk appetite has decreased despite some positive sentiment indicators [4] - The A-share market's trading volume has decreased compared to the previous week, with a daily trading volume of 952.91 million shares on Friday [5] - The net outflow of funds from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has accelerated, with a total outflow of 2.453 billion yuan this week [8] Group 3 - The industry trend score has turned negative, indicating a lack of investment themes and weak sector performance [11] - The short-term trend scores for the comprehensive and transportation sectors have increased significantly, with both sectors showing an increase of nearly 60% [14] - The model suggests that the growth style is currently dominant, although there has been a recent shift towards large-cap styles [16]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released the "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds," which outlines 25 specific measures aimed at enhancing the quality of the public fund industry, marking a significant reform milestone in the asset management sector [1] Group 1: Impacts of the Action Plan on the Public Fund Industry - The introduction of a floating management fee mechanism linked to fund performance may lead to significant differences in management fees among fund companies within the same tier, with top firms expected to issue at least 60% of their actively managed equity funds under this new structure [2] - The focus on performance benchmarks will drive fund companies to explore how to outperform these benchmarks, with strict performance evaluations for fund managers tied to their ability to meet or exceed these benchmarks [3][4] - The emphasis on performance benchmarks will encourage a more objective assessment of fund managers' performance, potentially correcting investor biases in evaluating growth and value style fund managers [5] Group 2: Future Paths for Public Funds - Active equity funds will need to control tracking error effectively, with an optimal threshold identified at 8%, as exceeding this level has historically correlated with significant underperformance against benchmarks [10][11] - Fund companies should prioritize the creation of low-volatility products and those with high Sharpe ratios, as these are associated with better investor outcomes and lower loss rates [12][14] - A shift towards a more advisory-based sales model is recommended, moving away from chasing market trends to better align with investor needs and enhance trust in fund management [15][16]

Group 1: New ETF Products - Pacer launched two new cash flow products, expanding its cash flow product line, including a quality-related product that selects S&P 500 stocks with at least 10 years of positive free cash flow [1] - VistaShares introduced an options strategy product that aims for a 15% annualized return by selecting stocks based on quality metrics and selling options [1] - Invesco launched three new products, including one focused on Nasdaq 100 stocks with an options strategy to control drawdowns [1] Group 2: ETF Fund Flows - U.S. stock ETFs experienced outflows, while international stocks and bond products saw significant inflows, particularly in bond ETFs [3][6] - Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF (VOO) had a net inflow of $27.11 billion, while iShares' core S&P 500 ETF (IW) saw a net outflow of $36.98 billion [7] - The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) continued to attract over $1 billion in inflows [6] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds have seen a decline of over 2% in May, but bond ETFs are experiencing inflows, indicating a shift in risk appetite [10] - The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) has a year-to-date return of 2.21%, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has a return of 1.08% [10] Group 4: Fund Flow Trends - In the week of April 23 to April 30, U.S. domestic stock funds experienced a significant outflow of $10.2 billion, while bond product outflows slowed [11] - As of March 2025, the total amount of non-money market mutual funds in the U.S. was $21.17 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $0.88 trillion from February [11]

Group 1 - The market sentiment model indicates a recovery in market sentiment, with a positive bias as the sentiment score rose to 1.5 as of May 9, 2025, following a low point on April 18, 2025, marking 12 consecutive trading days of upward recovery [1] - The A-share market continues to show signs of sentiment recovery, with the main capital's sentiment remaining acceptable and the price-volume consistency score increasing compared to the previous week [4] - The total transaction volume of the A-share market saw a significant rebound, reaching a peak of 1.5 trillion RMB on Wednesday [6] Group 2 - The sentiment indicators suggest that the main capital has seen net outflows from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, but there has been a notable recovery in sentiment since mid-April, with net inflows of 1.54 million RMB on May 6 and 3.84 million RMB on May 9 [9] - The degree of price-volume consistency has increased, indicating a higher alignment between industry performance and transaction volume, although the long-term trend score for industry performance remains at zero, suggesting a lack of clear market leadership [12] - The market style is shifting towards growth, with several industries such as oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, light industry manufacturing, and power equipment showing short-term positive signals, while real estate and social services have seen significant declines [14][15] Group 3 - The market style has transitioned from large-cap value to small-cap growth, with the style RSI timing model signaling a clear shift from large-cap value to small-cap growth [21] - The performance of major indices from April to May shows a trend of switching from dividend value to small-cap growth, with the CSI 300 index showing a return of 2.00% from May 6 to May 9 [22] - The timing model indicates that the CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices have short-term positive signals, while the CSI 2000 shows a significant increase in short-term scores [25][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment is recovering, with a model perspective leaning towards bullishness as the sentiment index rose to 0.8 as of April 30, following a continuous upward trend for eight trading days since the low on April 18 [2][3] - The A-share market continues to show signs of sentiment recovery, with notable improvements in the main buying power indicator and price-volume consistency indicator, both of which have increased scores compared to the previous week [3][4] - The model suggests that sectors such as beauty care, public utilities, banking, and oil and petrochemicals have short-term bullish signals, while most other sectors, including real estate, retail, and construction decoration, have seen significant declines in short-term scores [13][14] Group 2 - The model indicates that the overall market continues to favor large-cap and value styles, although there is a short-term strengthening trend in growth and small-cap styles [15][16] - The main funds have seen a net outflow from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a cumulative net outflow exceeding 2.72 billion RMB over three trading days, indicating a shift in investment focus [8][10] - The recent trading volume for the entire A-share market was approximately 1.2 trillion RMB on Wednesday, showing stability compared to the previous week [5]

1. 美国ETF创新产品：单股票杠杆反向产品密集发行 上周美国共12只新发产品，几乎都为单股票的杠杆反向产品： | Ax . LEREN X EIT | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 上市时间 | 量令名称 | 代码 | | 2025/4/24 | Leverage Shares 2X Long PLTR Daily ETF | PLTG | | 2025/4/24 | Tradr 2X Long QBTS Daily ETF | QBTX | | 2025/4/24 | Tradr 2X Long APP Daily ETF | APPX | | 2025/4/23 | T-Rex 2X Long GME Daily Target ETF | GMEU | | 2025/4/23 | T-Rex 2X Long SNOW Daily Target ETF | SNOU | | 2025/4/22 | Roundhill Magnificent Seven Covered Call ETF | MAGY | | 2025/4/22 | Direxion Daily BA Bear 1X ...

市场情绪自3月20日持续调整，于4月18日下降至低点，数值为0.1。本周市场情绪指标在接近0轴处开始向上反弹，回升至0.5，数值较上周五(4/18)上升0.4，模型转多，市场 情绪有所缓和。 本周A股市场提示市场情绪有一定修复，较上周明显发生变化的指标有科创50成交占比、主力买入力量和期权波动率。主力流出速率减缓和VIX指标体现的恐慌程度减弱是本 周市场情绪回升的主要原因。 科创50成交占比、行业涨跌趋势性、主力买入力量和PCR结合VIX，分别代表了市场风险偏好程度下降，市场情绪不确定性增强，主力流出速度 减缓和期权市场恐慌情绪缓和。其他指标维持和上周一致的判断。 资金当前对成长高估值板块观点不确定性较强。 自上周科创50成交占比指标快速下跌至下轨以下后，本周科创50成交占比指标仍在持续下降。本周主力资金持续从科创板块 流出，累计净流出超过32亿人民币。 投资者信心逐渐恢复，市场的活跃度和投资者参与度都有了明显提升。 除了看到主力资金本周流出科创板，主力资金本周在全A仍然呈现净流出的态势，但流出速度较上周有 所减缓，主力流出主力买入力量指标有所回升。从主力资金净流出绝对量看，主力资金本周累计净流出超过370亿 ...

1. 美国ETF创新产品：贝莱德发行权重上限3%的标普500调整产品 上周美国共10只新发产品，发行速度继续偏低： | X · LP天竺剂区 ET 上市时间 | 基金名称 | 代码 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/17 | YieldMax Target 12 Real Estate Option Income ETF | RNTY | | 2025/4/17 | Harbor Transformative Technologies ETF | TEC | | 2025/4/16 | Global X S&P 500 U.S Market Leaders Top 50 ETF | FLAG | | 2025/4/16 | Global X S&P 500 U.S. Revenue Leaders ETF | EGLE | | 2025/4/16 | Avantis Credit ETF | AVGB | | 2025/4/16 | iShares S&P 500 3% Capped ETF | TOPC | | 2025/4/15 | Simplify Target 15 Dis ...

1. 情绪模型观点：市场情绪进一步下行 根 据 《 从 结 构 化 视 角 全 新 打 造 市 场 情 绪 择 时 模 型 》 文 中 提 到 的 构 建 思 路 ， 目 前 我 们 用 于 构 建 市 场 情 绪 结 构 指 标 所 用 到 的 细 分 指 标 如 下 表 | 指标简称 | 含义 | 情绪指示方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业间交易波动率 | 资金在各板块间的交易活跃度 | 正向 | | 行业交易拥挤度 | 极值状态判断市场是否过热 | 负向 | | 价量一致性 | 资金情绪稳定性 | 正向 | | 科创 50 成交占比 | 资金风险偏好 | 正向 | | 行业涨跌趋势性 | 刻画市场轮涨补涨程度，趋势衡量 | 正向 | | RSI | 价格体现买方和卖方力量相对强弱 | 正向 | | 主力买入力量 | 主力资金净流入水平 | 正向 | | PCR 结合 VIX | 从期权指标看市场多空情绪 | 正向或负向 | | 融资余额占比 | 资金对当前和未来观点多空 | 6 公众号 · 普罗完酒会工 | 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和 ...