Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the China Securities Regulatory Commission's "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds," particularly focusing on the constraints of performance benchmarks for fund managers and the potential impact on their investment strategies and fee structures [1][15]. Group 1: Market Misestimation of Active Equity Funds - The market has overestimated the proportion of active equity funds that will underperform their benchmarks by 10% from 2022 to 2024, with 68.76% of funds projected to face this issue, compared to only 1.05% from 2019 to 2021 [2][6]. - The first method of estimating the probability of underperformance is flawed due to historical data not reflecting future performance accurately, as active equity funds have historically downplayed benchmark tracking [2][5]. - The second method assumes fund managers will align their strategies with broad indices like the CSI 800, which may not be realistic as managers typically select benchmarks that suit their investment styles [2][5]. Group 2: Benchmark Selection Challenges - If fund managers choose broad indices like the CSI 300 or CSI 800 as benchmarks without adjusting their investment strategies, the probability of underperforming these benchmarks by over 10% becomes uncontrollable [5][8]. - Fund managers face two choices: either select a broad index and adjust their portfolio to minimize deviation or choose a benchmark that aligns with their investment style, effectively turning their products into "enhanced index funds" [5][8]. Group 3: Importance of Style-Matched Benchmarks - Choosing benchmarks that align with a fund manager's investment style significantly reduces the proportion of funds underperforming their benchmarks from 47.82% to 22.34% [7][8]. - Growth-style fund managers are often underestimated, while value-style fund managers may be overestimated when using inappropriate benchmarks [7][8]. - The article emphasizes that selecting a suitable benchmark is more critical than conforming to broad indices, as it enhances the stability of excess returns and management fee income [8][11]. Group 4: Short-Term Market Expectations - The market is currently assessing the gap between fund allocations and benchmark indices, which may lead to short-term trading opportunities in certain sectors [15][16]. - Active equity funds are generally underweight in financials and traditional consumer sectors while overweight in technology and growth sectors, indicating a need for adjustments if broad indices are adopted as benchmarks [15][18]. Group 5: Industry and Stock Allocation Insights - Balanced style funds are underweight in non-bank financials, banks, and food and beverage sectors, while they are overweight in media, automotive, and machinery sectors [15][18]. - Growth-style funds show significant underweighting in food and beverage, transportation, and utilities, while being overweight in electronics, power equipment, and machinery [18][19]. - Value-style funds are underweight in banks, non-bank financials, and construction decoration, while overweight in power equipment, real estate, and biomedicine [18][19].

Group 1: Core Insights - The complexity of alternative strategies in newly launched ETFs in the US is increasing, with products like Rex's Nvidia options strategy offering 105-150% exposure while providing weekly dividends through a covered call strategy [1] - First Trust has launched a diversified product that combines stocks, bonds, and commodities, with 60% in covered call strategies, 35% in bonds, and 5% in commodities [1] - The recent inflow of over $10 billion into US stock ETFs indicates a renewed interest in equities, particularly in the Nasdaq 100 and gold ETFs [2][4][7] Group 2: ETF Performance and Trends - Gold-related ETFs have seen significant performance, with gold mining ETFs rising approximately 50% this year, driven by a nearly 30% increase in gold prices [8][9] - The top inflowing ETFs include QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF) with $39.52 billion, while SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) saw an inflow of $12.92 billion [5] - Conversely, short-term bond ETFs experienced outflows, indicating a shift in investor preference towards equities and commodities [4][7] Group 3: Fund Flow Dynamics - The total assets of US non-money market mutual funds stood at $21.06 trillion as of April 2025, reflecting a slight decrease from March [10] - During the week of May 14-21, US domestic equity funds experienced an outflow of $11.3 billion, while bond products continued to see inflows, maintaining a high level of interest [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment score has declined, indicating a bearish outlook for the market as it has ended its upward repair trend [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment structure indicator has shown significant fluctuations over the past five years, with a low position for most of 2023, only breaking above 2 in October 2024 [1]. - As of May 30, the market sentiment score was 2.5, down from 2.65 the previous week, suggesting a shift towards a bearish sentiment [1]. - The decline in sentiment is supported by a decrease in industry trading activity and a drop in the PCR combined with VIX indicators, reflecting increased uncertainty in fund sentiment [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The trading activity score across industries has significantly decreased, indicating a lack of investment themes and weak trends in industry performance [6][13]. - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has dropped, with a notable decline in the first three trading days of May, reaching a low of 1.16 trillion RMB on Friday [8]. - The industry performance shows that sectors like environmental protection, biomedicine, and national defense have maintained positive growth, while sectors like automobiles, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals have seen significant declines [16][17]. Group 3: Short-term Trends - The short-term trend scoring model indicates that sectors such as computer, media, electronics, and biomedicine have shown significant upward trends, with the computer sector's score increasing by 22.22% [19][20]. - The model suggests that small-cap growth stocks are currently favored, with strong signals indicating a preference for this style despite a potential strengthening of value styles [21].

1）参考量化指数增强的优化框架，在选股的同时针对基准指数控制成分股的投资比例、行业权重偏离、个股权重偏 离； 2）分仓位投资，一部分仓位用于基准指数的投资或尽可能跟住指数，另一部分仓位仍按照原来的主动管理思路。 下面部分中，我们将首先讨论这两种方案的效果，另外最后部分中我们也将参考海外绩优产品的实际偏离情况给予启 发。 1. 《行动方案》强化业绩比较基准的约束作用 5月7日，中国证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》（以下简称"《行动方案》"），提出了推进公募行业 高质量发展的七大项25项具体举措，其中明确提出强化业绩比较基准的约束作用，基金公司评价体系、公司高管的考 核以及基金经理的考核都将与业绩比较基准密切相关。以基金经理为例："对三年以上产品业绩低于业绩比较基准超过 10个百分点的基金经理，要求其绩效薪酬应当明显下降；对三年以上产品业绩显著超过业绩比较基准的基金经理，可 以合理适度提高其绩效薪酬"。 在此前后明星时代公募基金研究的系列报告中我们也曾经测算，过去10年美国主动权益基金相对其业绩比较基准的年 化跟踪误差多数在3~6%之间，平均水平不足5%，而国内偏股基金过去5年平均跟踪误差接近15%， ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment score is currently stable, with the sentiment structure indicator fluctuating around the 0 axis within the range of [-6, 6]. As of May 23, the market sentiment indicator has risen, indicating a bullish outlook [1][3] - The sentiment indicators have not shown significant changes compared to the previous week, with trading volume and investment themes being crucial for further sentiment improvement. The market risk appetite has decreased, and the industry trend scores remain negative [3][11] - The total trading volume for the week was approximately 1.18 trillion RMB, with a daily trading volume of 974.53 million shares on Friday [5] Group 2 - The industry trend scores continue to be negative, indicating a lack of investment themes and weak industry performance. The sectors with the highest gains include pharmaceuticals, comprehensive, automotive, and coal, while the sectors with the largest declines include electronics, computers, communications, and machinery [11][13] - The short-term trend scores for various industries have shown significant increases, particularly in the household appliances sector, which saw a rise of 24% [17][18] - The current model indicates a preference for large-cap stocks, with the growth style continuing to dominate despite a strengthening value trend [17][19]

5月7日，证监会下发了《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》（下文简称《行动方案》），《行动方案》从提升投资 者回报和重视基金投资相对基准的超额收益等方面提出了改革方向，市场也热议当前公募基金相对基准的偏离和未来 的资金配置转移等问题。本文尝试从实现监管目标入手，考察当前公募基金可能的行为以及资金配置的变化。 1. 政策立足长期，短期对市场影响或被高估 我们认为，《行动方案》既为公募基金的改革指明了方向，也关注到市场现状和注重长期效果，其具体条款对基金经 理行为和资金的影响都偏向长期，短期对市场的影响更多来自情绪面。主要的原因如下： 首先，未来公募基金可能会根据实际投资特征调整业绩基准，而不是简单向现有的基准靠拢。 当前公募基金约有40%的产品业绩比较基准是沪深300指数，因此市场上普遍以沪深300的行业分布和当前公募的行业 计算偏离和可能带来的调整资金， 这种计算方式高估了调仓资金的金额 ，未考虑在业绩基准重要性提升之后基金经 理普遍将选择更匹配自己投资风格的指数作为业绩基准的情况。 根据《行动方案》，未来将下发《公募基金业绩比较基准指引》，给出进一步明确的可选业绩基准，在更加重视业绩 基准的新时代，公募基金很 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment is recovering, with a short-term bullish outlook based on the sentiment model [1] - The sentiment structure indicator has shown significant fluctuations over the past five years, with a notable low position in 2023, but has recently risen to a score of 2 as of May 16, suggesting further recovery [1] - The model indicates that market sentiment has been improving for 17 consecutive trading days since the low point on April 18 [1] Group 2 - Future sentiment recovery requires dual support from trading volume and investment themes, as the market's risk appetite has decreased despite some positive sentiment indicators [4] - The A-share market's trading volume has decreased compared to the previous week, with a daily trading volume of 952.91 million shares on Friday [5] - The net outflow of funds from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has accelerated, with a total outflow of 2.453 billion yuan this week [8] Group 3 - The industry trend score has turned negative, indicating a lack of investment themes and weak sector performance [11] - The short-term trend scores for the comprehensive and transportation sectors have increased significantly, with both sectors showing an increase of nearly 60% [14] - The model suggests that the growth style is currently dominant, although there has been a recent shift towards large-cap styles [16]

本文将围绕《行动方案》中的具体举措，结合公募基金过往的发展情况以及客观数据，分析可能对公募 基金行业带来的影响，为投资者提供参考。 证监会于5月7日发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》（以下简称"《行动方案》"），提出了推进 公募行业高质量发展的七大项25项具体举措，吹响公募基金进入高质量发展的改革号角，在资管行业 中具备里程碑式的重要意义。 1. 《行动方案》对公募基金行业的四大影响 一、未来主动权益基金在同一梯队的基金公司，收取的管理费也可能存在较大差异 。 《行动方案》建 立与基金业绩表现挂钩的浮动管理费收取机制，符合基准的适用基准档费率，明显低于基准的适用低档 费率，显著超越基准的适用升档费率，在未来一年，引导管理规模居前的行业头部机构发行此类基金数 量不低于其主动管理权益类基金发行数量的60%。 超额收益高可以多收管理费，超额收益低需要降低 管理费，未来可能看到的情形：（1）同一梯队的基金公司，收取的管理费也可能存在较大差异； （2）第二梯队的基金公司收取的管理费也可能高于第一梯队的基金公司。 二、如何选择业绩比较基准、如何跑赢基准将是公募基金未来重点探索的路径。 《行动方案》明确提 出强化业绩比 ...

1. 美国ETF创新产品：Pacer发行现金流轮动策略产品 YieldMax上周继续扩充其单股票Covered Call策略产品，挂钩互联网券商Robinhood。 2. 美国ETF动态 2.1美国ETF资金：债券产品流入提升 上周美国股票ETF继续有一定流出，但国际股票、债券产品仍然流入明显，债券ETF的流入有所增加： 上周美国共8只新发产品，Pacer发行两只新产品扩充现金流产品线： VistaShares上周发行一只期权策略产品，产品首先通过ROE、盈利波动、负债率等质量标准选择20-50只股票，然后 通过卖出期权来增厚收益，目前是15%的年化收益。 Pacer上周也发行一只质量相关产品，是其代表性的现金流因子和质量结合的策略，选择至少10年连续正自由现金 流、自由现金流质量得分最高的100家标普500成分股。自由现金流质量由公司过去5年平均的自由现金流收益率和自 由现金流ROIC合成得到。此外，Pacer上周还发行一只轮动策略产品，在其现金流ETF COWZ和纳斯达克100之间轮 动，进一步扩充其现金流产品线。该策略主要根据动量进行轮动，将指数过去1、3、6、9、12个月的平均收益率等权 合成，然后每 ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment model indicates a recovery in market sentiment, with a positive bias as the sentiment score rose to 1.5 as of May 9, 2025, following a low point on April 18, 2025, marking 12 consecutive trading days of upward recovery [1] - The A-share market continues to show signs of sentiment recovery, with the main capital's sentiment remaining acceptable and the price-volume consistency score increasing compared to the previous week [4] - The total transaction volume of the A-share market saw a significant rebound, reaching a peak of 1.5 trillion RMB on Wednesday [6] Group 2 - The sentiment indicators suggest that the main capital has seen net outflows from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, but there has been a notable recovery in sentiment since mid-April, with net inflows of 1.54 million RMB on May 6 and 3.84 million RMB on May 9 [9] - The degree of price-volume consistency has increased, indicating a higher alignment between industry performance and transaction volume, although the long-term trend score for industry performance remains at zero, suggesting a lack of clear market leadership [12] - The market style is shifting towards growth, with several industries such as oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, light industry manufacturing, and power equipment showing short-term positive signals, while real estate and social services have seen significant declines [14][15] Group 3 - The market style has transitioned from large-cap value to small-cap growth, with the style RSI timing model signaling a clear shift from large-cap value to small-cap growth [21] - The performance of major indices from April to May shows a trend of switching from dividend value to small-cap growth, with the CSI 300 index showing a return of 2.00% from May 6 to May 9 [22] - The timing model indicates that the CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices have short-term positive signals, while the CSI 2000 shows a significant increase in short-term scores [25][26]