Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent market focus on Hainan and Fujian, driven by policy benefits and strategic positioning, leading to significant investment opportunities in these regions [2]. Group 1: Hainan and Fujian Market Dynamics - Hainan Free Trade Port is nearing full operation, with concentrated policy benefits being released, attracting over 300 private equity firms to the region [2]. - Fujian is gaining attention due to improved cross-strait relations and strategic policies, including tax incentives and fund aggregation, which are attracting private equity investments [2]. - As of November 2025, there are 242 private equity managers based in Fujian, with only two firms managing between 5-10 billion [2]. Group 2: Performance of Private Equity Firms in Fujian - The top ten private equity firms in Fujian for the year 2023 have a performance threshold of ***%, with seven firms located in Xiamen [3]. - The average return for private equity products in Fujian from January to November 2023 is 23.18%, with a total scale of 121.31 billion [2]. Group 3: Top Performing Private Equity Firms - The leading private equity firm in Fujian is 壹点纳锦, achieving a remarkable performance of ***% [5]. - 中闽汇金 ranks second with a performance of ***%, focusing on industries aligned with national economic development [6]. - 深圳量道投资, managing over 50 billion, has a notable return of ***%, with a strong emphasis on quantitative investment strategies [7]. Group 4: Strategy Performance - The average return for stock strategies in Fujian is 28.55%, outperforming major A-share indices [8]. - The top three stock strategy products are managed by 丹金恒信, 行必达, and 壹点纳锦, all achieving returns above ***% [9]. Group 5: Multi-Asset and Derivative Strategies - Multi-asset strategy products in Fujian have an average return of 15.72%, with the top products from 厦门证道 and 明实 [11]. - The average return for futures and derivatives strategies is 8.52%, with 深圳量道投资 leading the category [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and potential of CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies in the current market environment, highlighting their low correlation with traditional asset classes and their role in risk diversification and portfolio stability [2][3]. Group 1: CTA Strategy Overview - CTA strategies utilize futures contracts as core investment targets, including stock index futures, commodity futures, and government bond futures, aiming to generate returns through long and short trading [2]. - The performance of CTA strategies is closely linked to market price trends and volatility, excelling in clear trends and high volatility environments, while underperforming during market consolidation [2]. Group 2: Current Market Performance - In 2023, equity markets have shown strong performance, with quantitative long and subjective long strategies achieving returns of 30%-40%, while CTA strategies appear to lag behind [2]. - The commodity market has exhibited weak trend continuity and short trend cycles, leading to significant performance divergence among different CTA products [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Commodity Markets - The article anticipates that domestic demand may recover under the influence of global inflation expectations, supported by the ongoing "anti-involution" policies in China, which could create more sustainable trend opportunities for CTA strategies [3]. - Despite current low overall volatility, there are still trading opportunities in specific commodities like silver and non-ferrous metals, and increasing geopolitical and inflation uncertainties may lead to rising volatility, benefiting CTA strategies [3]. Group 4: Top Performing Private Equity Firms - Among private equity firms managing over 20 billion, the top performers in CTA strategy returns over the past six months include Shuanglong Investment and Luoshu Investment, with average returns exceeding a certain threshold [3][4]. - Shuanglong Investment, established in 2007, focuses on quantitative CTA investments and has a diverse strategy framework, while Luoshu Investment, founded by Xie Dong, has a strong background in quantitative analysis and investment [4][6]. Group 5: Mid-Sized Private Equity Firms - In the 5-20 billion category, Chi Ying Private Equity leads with significant returns from its CTA products, emphasizing a trend-following strategy that focuses on risk control and long-term wealth growth [8][9]. - Huacheng Private Equity also shows strong performance, with its CTA products achieving notable returns and historical highs [10]. Group 6: Smaller Private Equity Firms - Leading the 0-5 billion category is Jingying Zhito, with its CTA products demonstrating impressive returns, managed by a team with strong quantitative investment backgrounds [12][13]. - The article highlights the competitive landscape among smaller private equity firms, with several achieving significant performance metrics in their CTA strategies [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant structural fluctuations, with a rotation between technology growth and dividend value, highlighting the importance of structural allocation as a key strategy to navigate through market volatility [3]. Group 1: Index Configuration Value - The China Securities 500 Index (CSI 500) has re-emerged as a central asset due to its balanced exposure to mid-cap companies, avoiding the concentration seen in the CSI 300 and the high volatility of smaller cap indices [8]. - The index covers emerging industries such as electronics, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, computers, and new energy, with these sectors accounting for nearly 50% of the index, indicating strong growth potential driven by technological innovation and policy support [9]. - The average market capitalization of the CSI 500 constituents is approximately 33.4 billion, with a median of 29.5 billion, providing a balance of stability and growth potential compared to small and large-cap stocks [13]. - As of December 17, 2025, the CSI 500's price-to-earnings ratio is about 25 times, and the price-to-book ratio is approximately 2.2 times, positioning it at a medium valuation level compared to historical data, making it more attractive than larger indices [14]. Group 2: Enhanced Index Funds - Enhanced index funds based on the CSI 500 aim to improve return stability while maintaining a balanced exposure to the index, introducing systematic alpha sources to optimize risk-return structures [15]. - The China Europe CSI 500 Enhanced Index Fund A, established on May 6, 2022, has achieved a return of 44.01% over three years, significantly outperforming its benchmark [16]. - The fund employs a diversified, low-correlation factor strategy, utilizing extensive data and machine learning models to construct a return prediction system, aiming to reduce drawdowns and enhance return stability [17].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 continues the long-term trend of declining volatility, characterized by "low trend, low amplitude" due to increased institutionalization and regulatory emphasis on high-quality development [2] Group 1: Market Volatility Analysis - The annualized daily volatility of major broad-based indices is below the five-year average, with the CSI 300's volatility dropping below 15% and the CSI 1000 index showing a significant decline from its 2024 peak [9][10] - The number of trading days with an absolute price change greater than 2% for the CSI 1000 index is only 21 days as of December 10, significantly lower than 60 days in 2024, indicating a convergence of daily price fluctuations [10] Group 2: Causes of Volatility Decline - The decline in volatility is attributed to multiple structural factors, including accounting standard adjustments that reduced the impact of equity volatility on insurance profits, allowing long-term funds to increase allocations to low-turnover, low-beta assets [13] - A decrease in tail risk events throughout the year has led to a continuous downward adjustment in the market's pricing of systemic risks, contributing to the low volatility environment [13] - Regulatory changes in public fund assessments have led to a trend towards passive management, resulting in smoother rebalancing and reduced industry divergence [13] Group 3: Impact on Investment Strategies - Low volatility environments compress the price differences of stocks, making it difficult for high-frequency and momentum strategies to perform well, while some trend-following strategies struggle to generate positive feedback [16] - Despite the compression of alpha in certain enhanced strategies due to low volatility, new structural opportunities arise, particularly in stable cash flow and low-volatility sectors, which are expected to sustain their value [17] - Small-cap and micro-cap assets, which remain under-covered by institutions, present significant alpha sources due to their lower pricing efficiency and higher volatility, making them attractive for enhanced strategies [17]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid rise of quantitative macro strategies in the private equity industry, highlighting their increasing popularity compared to traditional subjective macro strategies [2][7] - Quantitative macro strategies have seen significant growth, with a management scale increase of over 15% annually since 2020, outpacing traditional strategies [2][10] - The article emphasizes the performance of quantitative macro strategies, noting that while their average returns are slightly lower than subjective strategies, they exhibit superior risk-adjusted returns as indicated by higher Sharpe ratios [3][4] Industry Overview - The private equity sector currently has 172 firms focusing on macro strategies, with only 14 being purely quantitative and 36 combining subjective and quantitative approaches [2] - Notable firms in the quantitative macro space include Dunhe Asset Management and Shenzhen Kaifeng Investment, both managing over 50 billion [3] - The average return for macro strategy products this year is reported at 25.50%, with subjective strategies yielding 26.42% and quantitative strategies at 21.42% [3][4] Growth Drivers - The article attributes the surge in quantitative macro strategies to the complex global macroeconomic environment, which has made traditional decision-making methods less effective [7][9] - The integration of advanced technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence has enabled the development of quantitative models that can effectively predict macroeconomic trends [9][11] Strategy Characteristics - Quantitative macro strategies are defined by their data-driven approach, systematic processes, multi-dimensional analysis, and a strong focus on risk management [12][18] - The strategies can be categorized into five types, including fundamental quantitative strategies, systematic trend-following, cross-asset relative value, machine learning macro forecasting, and macro factor investing [13][14] Comparison with Traditional Strategies - The article contrasts subjective macro strategies, which rely heavily on the intuition and experience of fund managers, with quantitative macro strategies that utilize data and models for decision-making [18][19] - Quantitative macro strategies offer advantages in terms of scalability, consistency in performance, and systematic risk management, making them more adaptable to complex market conditions [20][21] Future Outlook - The rise of quantitative macro strategies represents a significant evolution in macro investment methodologies, emphasizing the need for a blend of human insight and machine-driven analysis [21][22] - Investors who can effectively navigate the complexities of the modern economic landscape through systematic approaches are likely to achieve sustained excess returns [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential recovery of the A-share consumer sector and subjective long-only funds as macroeconomic policies shift towards supporting consumption, raising the question of whether 2026 will mark a transition from a downturn to an upturn for these investments [2]. Historical Review: Performance of Consumer Funds in "Good Years" - The consumer sector, primarily consisting of food and beverage, discretionary consumption, and service consumption, does not yield excess returns every year but shows concentrated returns under specific macroeconomic conditions [4]. - In favorable years (e.g., 2009-2010, 2016-2017, 2019-2020), consumer funds typically thrive when the economy transitions from a downturn to a recovery phase, with policies shifting from "stabilizing growth" to "expanding demand" and inflation rising from low levels [4][6]. Policy Logic: Why This Round of "Consumption" is Not Short-Term Stimulus - The article emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a long-term strategy for China's modernization, indicating a shift from investment-driven growth to a balanced approach of consumption and investment [8]. - The central economic work conference has set three key directions for consumption: moving from "subsidizing consumption" to "restoring consumption capacity," focusing on service consumption, and avoiding deflation while aiming for a stable inflation target [8]. 2026 Consumer Sector and Fund Dynamics - Based on historical experience, policy environment, and inflation signals, the consumer sector is expected to enter a phase of "moderate recovery rather than full-scale attack" in 2026, with a focus on restoring income expectations and expanding service consumption [11]. - The November CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, signaling marginal improvement in demand and alleviating deflation risks, which supports profit margin recovery and valuation stability for consumer companies [11][14]. - The investment opportunities in consumer funds for 2026 are likely to focus on "structural selection and long-term allocation" rather than short-term thematic plays, with an emphasis on service consumption and leading companies with brand and channel advantages [14].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 在私募投资领域， 主观与量化两种投资模式各有所长 。主观投资依托专业团队对宏观经济、行业趋势及企业基本面的深度研究，能够捕捉市场 非理性波动中的价值洼地，尤其在政策转向或行业拐点等关键节点，凭借经验判断快速调整仓位，捕捉超额收益机会。量化投资则通过大数据分 析和算法模型，对海量历史数据进行回测验证，构建纪律性交易策略，有效规避人为情绪干扰，实现风险分散与收益稳定性提升。 因此， 也有不少私募采用 "量化+主观"相结合的投资模式 。二者的结合可形成互补：量化模型为投资组合提供基础框架，优化风险收益比；主 观判断则通过动态调整策略权重，在市场风格切换时捕捉结构性机会。 这种投资模式既保留了人工决策的灵活性，又借助量化工具提升了投资 效率 ，尤其在复杂多变的市场环境中，能够通过多维度验证增强决策可靠性，力争最终实现严控风险下的收益最大化。 根据私募排排网数据，截至2025年11月底， 采用 "量化+主观"相结合这一投资模式的私募共有1266家，比量化私募数量（852家）还要多。其 中，至少有3只产品在私募排排网有今年来业绩展示的私募共有121家，今年来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reforms in the public fund industry that took effect in December 2025, focusing on changes in investment scope, compensation incentives, and business restrictions, which are seen as crucial steps in reshaping the industry ecosystem [2]. Group 1: Historical Context of "Public to Private" Transition - The article reflects on three previous waves of "public to private" transitions, highlighting that these movements are not only personal career choices for fund managers but also indicative of the restructuring of the fund industry and market changes [3]. - The first wave occurred between 2006-2007, during which the Shanghai Composite Index surged from 1,000 to 6,124 points, leading to a boom in public fund sizes but lacking effective incentive mechanisms. Notable fund managers like Zhao Jun and Jiang Hui transitioned to private equity [4]. - The second wave from 2012-2015 coincided with a bull market in the ChiNext board and a blue-chip rally, with prominent figures like Wang Yawei and Qiu Guolu moving to establish private firms [4]. - The third wave from 2020-2022 was marked by a structural bull market in sectors like new energy, with managers such as Zhou Yingbo and Dong Chengfei making headlines for their transitions [4]. Group 2: Current Trends and Performance of Fund Managers - As of December 12, 2025, there are 859 fund managers with backgrounds in public funds who have transitioned to private equity. The article notes that 304 public fund managers left their positions in 2025 alone, with many rumored to be moving to private equity [5]. - In the past six months, the top-performing fund manager is Huang Litong, with his products achieving significant returns. He emphasizes the potential for economic recovery supported by domestic policies and the effects of U.S. interest rate cuts [8]. - The article lists the top fund managers based on their performance over different time frames, indicating that many of them have extensive experience, with several having over 20 years in the industry [9][10][11][12][13][17]. - Notably, the article highlights that the top managers in the last five years include four from billion-dollar private equity firms, showcasing the competitive landscape and the performance of these managers [17].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 is characterized by "index upward, structural activity," with significant performance differentiation among private equity funds, where quantitative private equity has emerged as a standout strategy [2]. Group 1: Performance of Quantitative Private Equity - As of December 5, 2025, the quantitative long strategy index has increased by 34.97%, while the quantitative stock selection strategy index has risen by 29.28% [7]. - The performance of quantitative private equity has been particularly strong due to the active nature of small and mid-cap stocks, which have outperformed large-cap indices, providing ample beta space for strategies [9]. - The ability of quantitative strategies to adapt to market fluctuations and maintain stable risk-return characteristics has been highlighted, especially during periods of market volatility [12][13]. Group 2: Market Environment and Strategy Adaptation - The market in 2025 has shown a tendency for frequent style rotation, with technology and growth sectors remaining central, allowing various strategies to thrive [12]. - Quantitative strategies have demonstrated their advantages in capturing structural opportunities through factor diversification and dynamic adjustment of positions, rather than relying on a single market direction [14]. - The overall improvement in quantitative private equity performance is attributed to effective adaptation to changing market conditions rather than short-term style bets [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the macro environment is expected to remain characterized by weak recovery trends and high uncertainty, making it challenging for the market to revert to a single mainline-driven structure [14]. - Emphasizing discipline, diversification, and risk control, quantitative strategies are anticipated to continue providing high allocation value, particularly in volatile conditions [14].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 头部私募往往管理50亿甚至上百亿资金，相对于规模较小的私募对市场掌握了更高的"定价权"，而其背后的基金经理的一举一动更是备受市场关 注。私募排排网数据显示，截至2025年12月12日，头部私募的基金经理共有1280位，仅占所有基金经理总数的4.21%。 从业绩层面来看，所管的产品至少有3只近半年、1年、3年、5年符合排名规则的头部私募基金经理分别有135位、126位、82位、41位，平均收 益分别为16.6%、27.06%、53.97%、89.5%。那么，究竟有哪些私募基金经理近半年、1年、3年、5年业绩位居前列呢？ 0 1 近半年：何瑞琳、谢冬位居前5 近半年收益10强的头部私募基金经理"上榜门槛"为 *** %。其中，百亿私募基金经理和准百亿私募（规模为50-100亿）基金经理各占一半。从所 属公司的投资模式来看，主观、量化私募基金经理各占4位，混合型私募（"主观+量化"）的基金经理共2位。（ 点此查看收益 ） [应监管要求，私募产品不能公开展示业绩，文中涉及收益数据用***替代，合格投资者可扫码查看收益数据。] | 排名 | 姓名 | 经理 ...