Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service is expected to enhance the sales of existing models and the upcoming Cybercab, with a fixed fare of $4.2 per ride during the initial phase [9] - Strong players in the autonomous driving and vehicle manufacturing sectors are anticipated to capture market share in the Robotaxi market, with companies like Baidu, WeRide, and Pony.ai leading in operations [3][9] - The commercialization of Robotaxi services is accelerating in China, with various companies planning to expand their fleets and services significantly by 2025 [9] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks in the T-chain benefiting from Robotaxi developments include: - Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179, Buy) - Yinlun Machinery (002126, Buy) - Top Group (601689, Buy) - Aikodi (600933, Buy) - Rongtai Co., Ltd. (605133, Buy) - Huayu Automotive (600741, Buy) [4] - Recommended smart driving vehicle stocks include: - SAIC Motor (600104, Buy) - JAC Motors (600418, Not Rated) - XPeng Motors (09868, Not Rated) - Li Auto (02015, Not Rated) - Geely Automobile (00175, Buy) [4] - Recommended smart driving chain stocks include: - Jingwei Hirain Technologies (688326, Buy) - Bertel (603596, Buy) - Desay SV (002920, Buy) - Huayang Group (002906, Buy) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "front - running" market in the bond market is expected to continue around the quarter - end, and the interest rate downward process is not over yet. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the interest rate adjustment risk after the market reaches unanimous optimism, so it is recommended to hold high - liquidity varieties [4][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Viewpoint: The "Front - Running" Market in the Bond Market May Continue - Previously, the report continuously suggested bond - buying opportunities. The main logic was that institutional concerns about the capital market gradually subsided, and the market shifted from divergence to unanimous optimism. Last week, this process continued, manifested in the compression of spreads, including traditional term spreads and credit spreads, and the market started to seek returns from the convex points of the curve [4][7]. - The "front - running" market was triggered by the stable capital market during the tax period and quarter - end. It is expected to continue for some time due to factors such as the seasonal expansion of fixed - income asset management products in July, the potential spread of optimistic sentiment from banks and insurance to funds, the seasonal decline of capital interest rates after the quarter - end, and the potential positive feedback of interest rate decline [4][12]. - The "front - running" market can continue around the quarter - end, but one should be cautious about interest rate adjustment risks when the market becomes unanimously optimistic. It is recommended to hold high - liquidity varieties [4][20]. - Last week, the bond market continued to expect monetary policy easing. Despite some unmet expectations, the loose capital market and large banks' short - bond purchases supported the bond market, with short - end yields declining rapidly. On June 20, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by - 4.5bp, - 2.6bp, - 4.2bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.4bp respectively compared to the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fixed - Income Market Outlook: Intensive Release of Overseas Economic Data 3.2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Release - This week, the US will release data such as the May core PCE and the June University of Michigan consumer confidence index. Other important data and events include the eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Germany's June IFO business climate index, etc. [21][22]. 3.2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply Scale of Interest - Rate Bonds - This week, it is estimated that 846.6 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds will be issued, which is at a high level compared to the same period. Treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a total scale of about 110 billion yuan, including a 91 - day discount treasury bond and a 30 - year special treasury bond worth 71 billion yuan. Local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 585.7 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of about 150 billion yuan [22]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook: Yields Fluctuated Downward 3.3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Situation - The central bank's reverse repurchase resulted in a net withdrawal. The reverse - repurchase injection scale reached 960.3 billion yuan, with a small net injection, but considering the MLF maturity, the open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. Capital interest rates were relatively stable. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase continued to rise, and the overnight proportion averaged around 89.7%. Capital interest rates showed differentiation. The secondary yields of medium - and long - term certificates of deposit continued to decline [28][29][34]. 3.3.2 The Capital Market Continued to Favor the Bond Market - The bond market continued to expect monetary policy easing. Although some expectations were not met, the loose capital market and large banks' short - bond purchases supported the bond market, with short - end yields declining rapidly. On June 20, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by - 4.5bp, - 2.6bp, - 4.2bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.4bp respectively compared to the previous week, with the 1 - year treasury bond having the largest decline [46]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Retail Data - On the production side, the operating rates were differentiated. The blast furnace operating rate and semi - steel tire operating rate increased, while the petroleum asphalt operating rate and PTA operating rate decreased. The year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude steel output in early June remained negative [53]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales increased. The year - on - year growth rates of the 30 - large - city commercial housing sales area increased by about 5.9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 10.5% and 8% respectively [53]. - On the price side, crude oil prices rose, copper and aluminum prices increased, and coal prices were differentiated. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index decreased slightly, the cement index decreased, and the glass index increased. The output of rebar increased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly to 3.69 million tons, and the futures price increased by 1.1%. In the downstream consumer sector, vegetable, fruit, and pork prices changed by 1.2%, - 3.7%, and 0.3% respectively [54].

价格价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 23 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | 万里扬 | 021-63325888*2504 | | | wanliyang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | | 农药行业爆炸事故引发交易性行情，看好 | 2025-06-15 | | --- | --- | | 差异化龙头的成长逻辑 | | | 本周宏观预期修复，大宗品表现较强 | 2025-06-08 | | 本周油价小幅下跌，农药关注度较高 | 2025-06-03 | 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 以色列伊朗冲突加剧油气化工价格波动 核心观点 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 从战略与策略角度看稀土板块的配置价值 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 25 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 23 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 重视稀土产业链的供给侧逻辑：——有色 | 2025-06-08 | | --- | --- | | 钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 23 周） | | | 美债危机叠加关税冲击，关注黄金板块的 | 2025-06-03 | | 投 资 机 会 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 | | | （2025 年第 22 周） | | | 积极关注稀土等战略金属板块的投资机 | 2025-05-18 | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 20 周） | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The trading volume and liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds have significantly increased in the past two weeks, approaching the historical high in July and August 2024. The market's pursuit of duration for returns is expected to continue this week. The ultra-long credit bond strategy has a certain probability of success but a low odds. Short-duration credit enhancement remains a highly certain strategy [5][8]. - The convertible bond market has a relatively cautious style. In an environment where the equity market is expected to fluctuate, the upward momentum of convertible bonds is limited. However, the current valuation of convertible bonds is not significantly overestimated, and there may be opportunities for capital inflow into high-quality, low-volatility individual bonds. The potential credit risk in June is coming to an end, and if unexpected events occur, the opportunities are considered greater than the risks [5][19]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1 Credit Bond and Convertible Bond Views: How Long Can the Ultra-Long Credit Bond Market Last? - When short-term trading becomes crowded, the market starts to seek returns from duration. This phenomenon is expected to continue this week. The narrowing of short-term spreads has reached an extreme level, forcing liquidity to shift to longer-term bonds of medium-quality issuers. The expansion of fixed-income asset management products and the increasing insurance allocation willingness are expected to bring incremental funds, and the market's offensive on long-term credit bonds is unlikely to end soon [5][8]. - The ultra-long credit bond strategy has execution problems, such as the need for significant interest rate declines or spread compressions to achieve better returns and the lack of stable institutional investors, resulting in rapid loss of liquidity during market corrections. Short-duration credit enhancement is a more certain strategy, and if the liability side is stable, extending duration through secondary perpetual bonds is recommended rather than ultra-long credit bonds [5][13]. - The convertible bond market has a cautious style, with high-rated and low-priced convertible bonds performing better. The three characteristics of the convertible bond market in 2025 remain unchanged. In an environment where the equity market is expected to fluctuate, the upward momentum of convertible bonds is limited, but the long-term allocation logic remains valid, and there may be opportunities for high-quality, low-volatility individual bonds. The potential credit risk in June is ending, and if unexpected events occur, the opportunities are greater than the risks [5][19]. 2 Credit Bond Review: The Spread Compression Market is Becoming More Extreme 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults or overdue payments during the week from June 16 to June 22, 2025. Several companies had their主体评级 or展望下调, and some overseas companies had their ratings downgraded. There were also several significant negative events, such as companies being issued warning letters by regulatory authorities and being listed as dishonest被执行人 [21][22][23]. 2.2 Primary Issuance: Net Financing Continues to Remain at the Billion-Level - From June 16 to June 22, 2025, the primary issuance of credit bonds reached 411.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of 105.4 billion yuan, maintaining a billion-level net financing for three consecutive weeks. Three credit bonds were canceled or postponed for issuance, with a total planned issuance scale of 3.6 billion yuan. The primary issuance costs of medium and high-grade bonds showed a differentiated trend last week [24]. 2.3 Secondary Trading: Liquidity Continues to Strengthen, and Urban Investment Slightly Outperforms Industry - The valuation of credit bonds declined across the board, and the risk-free interest rate curve flattened bullishly. Except for the passive widening of the spreads of low-grade long-term bonds, the spreads of other bonds narrowed or remained unchanged. The term spreads of each grade were mainly flat, but the 3Y - 5Y part of medium and low-grade bonds slightly underperformed. The long-term grade spreads were under pressure to widen. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most provinces narrowed by 1 - 3bp last week, with Qinghai having the largest narrowing of 4bp. The industry bonds slightly underperformed urban investment bonds, and the real estate industry's spreads continued to widen by 27bp. The liquidity of credit bonds continued to strengthen, with the turnover rate increasing by 0.27 percentage points to 2.31% [26][30][33]. 3 Convertible Bond Review: The Equity Market Pulled Back, and the Convertible Bond Index Slightly Declined 3.1 Overall Market Performance: The Stock Market Fluctuated and Closed Lower, with Banks and Communications Leading the Gains - From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and other major indices mostly closed lower. Only the banking, communications, and electronics sectors rose, while the beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical sectors had the largest declines. Most of the leading convertible bonds outperformed their underlying stocks, and the list of popular individual bonds changed little [36]. 3.2 Convertible Bonds Slightly Declined, and the Opportunities Outweighed the Risks - Last week, the convertible bonds slightly declined, with the average daily trading volume significantly decreasing to 61.305 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.17%, the parity center decreased by 1.6% to 94.5 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 2.2% to 28.7%. High-rated, low-priced, and low-premium convertible bonds performed better, while high-priced, low-rated, and small-cap convertible bonds underperformed. The view on convertible bonds has changed little. In an environment where the equity market is expected to fluctuate, the upward momentum of convertible bonds is limited, but the current valuation of convertible bonds is not significantly overestimated. The long-term allocation logic of the convertible bond market remains valid, and there may be opportunities for capital inflow into high-quality, low-volatility individual bonds. The potential credit risk in June is ending, and if unexpected events occur, the opportunities are greater than the risks [39].

核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 美商务部拟取消在中国运营的芯片制造商的技术豁免权，或将削弱海外公司利用中国大 陆资源的优势，改变存储全球供应链格局，建议关注国内半导体产业链： 风险提示 电子行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 美拟收紧半导体技术豁免，利好本土产业 链 ⚫ 国际政治经济形势变动风险；半导体景气度不及预期；半导体国产化进度不及预 期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 电子行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 23 日 看好（维持） | 薛宏伟 | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | 蒯剑 | 021-63325888*8514 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | 韩潇锐 | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080004 | 朱茜 zhuqian@orientsec.com.cn | 部分存储涨价，AI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and components industry in China [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic luxury car market is still dominated by foreign brands, but is increasingly impacted by the rise of domestic high-end brands. The market share of domestic luxury brands is expected to gradually increase due to enhanced consumer confidence and recognition of domestic luxury brands [9][35]. - The profitability of luxury car manufacturers is higher and more stable compared to general car manufacturers, with brands like Ferrari showing significantly higher net profit margins [9][54]. - The report suggests focusing on domestic luxury car brands such as Jianghuai Automobile and BYD, which are expected to achieve breakthroughs in the high-end market [3][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Luxury Car Market Dynamics - The domestic luxury car market is primarily composed of foreign brands, with imported luxury car sales declining from approximately 810,300 units in 2020 to an estimated 589,500 units in 2024, representing a 15.6% year-on-year decrease [14][15]. - In 2023, the sales of high-end luxury models were about 531,800 units, accounting for approximately 2.4% of total passenger car sales, which is projected to drop to 1.9% in 2024 [9][15]. 2. Product Strength and Brand Value Enhancement - The report emphasizes that the improvement in product strength and brand value of domestic luxury brands will drive their upward brand positioning. This is supported by the increasing recognition of brands like BYD and Huawei in the luxury market [35][41]. - The integration of intelligent technology into luxury vehicles is becoming a key competitive advantage for domestic brands, allowing them to gradually catch up with traditional foreign luxury brands [37][40]. 3. Profitability Comparison - Luxury car manufacturers exhibit higher and more stable profitability compared to general car manufacturers. For instance, Ferrari's average net profit margin from 2020 to 2024 is projected to be 19.9%, significantly higher than that of other manufacturers [9][54]. - The report notes that while luxury brands maintain high profit margins, the increasing competition from domestic brands is expected to pressure the profitability of traditional luxury brands [59]. 4. Valuation Comparison - The report indicates that overseas ultra-luxury brands enjoy a valuation premium, with Ferrari maintaining a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 60-80 in 2024-2025, while other brands like Porsche and Mercedes-Benz have lower P/E ratios due to market pressures [9][54]. - If domestic luxury brands can establish stable sales and profitability, they may also achieve higher valuation levels compared to traditional manufacturers [9][54]. 5. Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on domestic luxury car brands that are expected to break into the high-end market, particularly highlighting Jianghuai Automobile and BYD as key players [3][35].

2）SoC 端：国产 SoC 供应商恒玄科技(688608，买入)、晶晨股份(688099，买入) 等； 3）零组件端：摄像头模造玻璃供应商宇瞳光学(300790，未评级)、麦克风及扬声器 供应商瑞声科技(02018，未评级)，SiP 模组供应商环旭电子(601231，买入)； 电子行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 AI 眼镜从"时尚单品"到"垂类场景专业 工具"，应用拓宽定位升级 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ AI 眼镜快速渗透，正逐步从"时尚单品"到"专业垂类细分场景必要性工具"演 进，长期加入显示功能后有望突破手机附属可穿戴品类天花板，成为下一代独立 AI 端侧智能终端品类，建议关注深度参与国内外头部品牌供应链的各环节龙头，建议 关注： 1）整机及 PCBA 厂商平台型龙头厂商，歌尔股份(002241，买入)、龙旗科技 (603341，未评级)、蓝思科技(300433，买入)、立讯精密(002475，买入)、华勤技 术(603296，买入)等； 4）光波导相关厂商蓝特光学(688127，买入)、水晶光电(002273，买入)、舜宇光学 科技(02382，买入)。 风险提示 ⚫ AI 眼镜进展不及预期；下 ...

当霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势与美联储持续鹰派的政策立场形成共振，上周全球资本 市场经历了一场压力测试。令人瞩目的是，市场展现出超乎预期的韧性：亚洲主要 市场指数普遍上扬，其中韩国、印度和日本市场涨幅领先，分别上涨 4.4%、1.59% 和 1.50%。相较之下，中国市场本周表现略显逊色，主要指数出现调整，我们认 为，可能源于其自身运行节奏的影响：上证指数在未能有效突破 3400 点附近的关键 阻力区间后，技术上面临回踩需求，本周微跌 0.51%。同时，小盘股前期积累的上 涨动能也显露转弱迹象，中证 1000 指数下跌 1.74%，北证 50 指数下跌 2.55%，需 对该结构性风险保持警惕。 投资策略 | 定期报告 地缘波折，难阻中国科技突围 策略周报 20250622 研究结论 ⚫ 全球资本市场韧性超预期，但仍需防范风险 支撑全球市场韧性的核心逻辑在于：投资者倾向于相信中东地缘危机短期内不会失 控升级。伊朗的报复行动虽引发波动，但均未实质性突破"红线"，大国直接军事 介入的风险暂时预期保持中性。OPEC+充足的闲置产能、伊朗原油出口的暂时维持 以及全球能源转型的长期趋势，共同削弱了油价飙升的持续性预期。然而，这 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to predict the impact of dividends on stock index futures pricing by estimating the dividend points and their influence on futures contracts[6][10][18] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Estimate Component Stocks' Net Profit**: Use annual reports, quick reports, earnings warnings, or analysts' profit forecasts to estimate net profits[21][22] 2. **Calculate Pre-Tax Dividend Total**: Based on the assumption that the dividend payout ratio remains unchanged, calculate the total dividend amount as: $$ \text{Estimated Dividend Total} = \text{Estimated Net Profit} \times \text{Dividend Payout Ratio} $$ If no dividends were distributed in the previous year, assume no dividends this year[26] 3. **Calculate Dividend Impact on Index**: - Dividend Yield: $$ \text{Dividend Yield} = \frac{\text{Tax-Adjusted Dividend Total}}{\text{Latest Market Value}} $$ - Dividend Points: $$ \text{Dividend Points Impact} = \text{Stock Weight} \times \text{Dividend Yield} $$ - Adjust stock weights using the formula: $$ w_{it} = \frac{w_{i0} \times (1 + R_1)}{\sum_{1}^{n} w_{i0} \times (1 + R_1)} $$ where \( w_{i0} \) is the initial weight, and \( R_1 \) is the stock's return[23] 4. **Predict Dividend Impact on Futures Contracts**: Aggregate all dividends before the contract's delivery date to calculate the total impact on futures contracts[28] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic and logical approach to estimate dividend impacts, but its accuracy depends on the reliability of input assumptions and historical data[18][26] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Dividend Points for July Contracts**: - SSE 50: 40.84 - CSI 300: 38.26 - CSI 500: 19.23 - CSI 1000: 17.88[6][10] - **Annualized Hedging Costs (Excluding Dividends)**: - SSE 50: -1.91% - CSI 300: 1.35% - CSI 500: 7.37% - CSI 1000: 10.19%[6][10] - **Remaining Dividend Impact on July Contracts**: - SSE 50: 1.53% - CSI 300: 0.99% - CSI 500: 0.34% - CSI 1000: 0.30%[14] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Theoretical Pricing Model for Stock Index Futures - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor calculates the theoretical price of stock index futures based on the no-arbitrage principle, considering dividends and risk-free rates[30][31] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Discrete Dividend Distribution**: $$ D = \sum_{i=1}^{m} \frac{D_i}{(1 + r_i)} $$ where \( D_i \) is the dividend amount at time \( t_i \), and \( r_i \) is the risk-free rate between \( t_i \) and \( t \)[30] The theoretical futures price is: $$ F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r) $$ 2. **Continuous Dividend Distribution**: $$ F_t = S_t \cdot e^{(r-d)(T-t)} $$ where \( d \) is the annualized dividend yield, and \( r \) is the annualized risk-free rate[31] - **Factor Evaluation**: The model is robust under the no-arbitrage assumption but may deviate in real markets due to transaction costs and market frictions[30][31] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Theoretical Pricing Model for Stock Index Futures - **Annualized Hedging Costs (Excluding Dividends)**: - SSE 50: -1.91% - CSI 300: 1.35% - CSI 500: 7.37% - CSI 1000: 10.19%[6][10] - **Remaining Dividend Impact on July Contracts**: - SSE 50: 1.53% - CSI 300: 0.99% - CSI 500: 0.34% - CSI 1000: 0.30%[14]