Research Conclusion - The report remains optimistic about the trading opportunities of convertible bonds, expecting a sideways shock and a slight strengthening in the equity market, with the market shifting from a two - end trend of technology + dividends to mid - cap blue - chips [6][9]. Core Viewpoints - This week, the ChiNext and STAR Market drove the small and medium - cap stocks stronger, and convertible bonds followed the upward trend. The high - priced equity - like bonds continued to rise. The 100 - yuan premium rate oscillated between 30% - 34% as previously predicted and was difficult to break through the previous high. Although the current cost - performance of convertible bonds is low, there are still trading opportunities under the optimistic expectation of the equity market [6][9]. - The strengthening factors of the equity market this week include the continuous popularity of the commercial space and optical module sectors, the strengthening of metal prices, and the significant increase in the share of CSI A500 ETF. After the uncertain events are settled, the market starts to rise with oscillations and the sentiment turns positive. The subsequent equity market will be in a sideways shock and slightly strengthen, and the market trend will shift to mid - cap blue - chips [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views - Driven by the equity market, convertible bonds broke through the previous high, and the valuation rose and then fell. The 100 - yuan premium rate oscillated between 30% - 34% and was difficult to break through the previous high. Despite the low cost - performance and small - scale redemption behavior, the trading opportunities of convertible bonds are still promising under the optimistic equity market [9]. - The equity market tried to break through upward again this week. With the settlement of uncertain events, the market started to rise with oscillations. The subsequent equity market will be in a sideways shock and slightly strengthen, and the market trend will shift to mid - cap blue - chips in industries such as cycles, consumption, and manufacturing [9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review 2.1 Market Overall Performance - This week, the equity market was strong, with all broad - based indexes rising. The CSI 500 rose 4.03%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.90%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64%. In terms of industries, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and power equipment led the rise, while beauty care, social services, and banks led the decline. The average daily trading volume increased by 210.457 billion yuan to 1.96 trillion yuan [12]. 2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, Good Performance of High - priced and Small - cap Convertible Bonds - This week, convertible bonds rose significantly, the 100 - yuan premium rate rose and then fell, and the average daily trading volume increased significantly to 78.563 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64%, the parity center rose 0.4% to 101.7 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate rose 1.3% to 32.4%. High - priced and small - cap convertible bonds led the rise, while high - rated and double - low convertible bonds performed weakly [6][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and aerospace industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [7]. Core Insights - The Long March 12甲 rocket, despite not achieving its primary recovery goal, has provided valuable experience and is a crucial step in China's development of reusable rocket technology [10][11]. - The Wenchang International Aerospace Forum has opened, signaling rapid advancement in the commercialization and industrialization of the aerospace sector in China [12]. - The report emphasizes continued optimism for commercial aerospace, unmanned systems, new combat capabilities, and military trade as key growth areas [13]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Long March 12甲 Rocket - The Long March 12甲 rocket's recent launch did not meet the recovery target for the first stage, but it successfully gathered critical data for future missions [10][11]. - The failure is seen as part of the iterative process necessary for achieving reusable technology, similar to the development path of SpaceX's Falcon 9 [11]. 1.2 Wenchang International Aerospace Forum - The forum aims to enhance the aerospace industry in Hainan, focusing on building a comprehensive ecosystem that includes rocket, satellite, and data services [12]. - The government is shifting its focus from merely launching rockets to developing downstream services and applications, indicating a move towards a more integrated aerospace industry [12]. 1.3 Future Outlook - As the 14th Five-Year Plan approaches, the report highlights the importance of new technologies in defense, including unmanned systems and deep-sea technology [13]. - The report suggests that military and civilian sectors will become significant growth drivers, with a focus on expanding military trade and high-end equipment exports [13]. Investment Targets - The report lists several investment targets in the commercial aerospace sector, including: - Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy) - National Science and Technology Military Industry (688543, Not Rated) - Aerospace Power (600343, Not Rated) [13][14].

兆易创新 603986.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 2.47、3.96、5.00 元（原 25-26 年预测为 2.38、3.04 元），主要调整了营业收入与费用率。根据可比公司 26 年平均 65 倍 PE 估值，给予 257.40 元目标价，维持买入评级。 风险提示 需求复苏不及预期、价格上涨不及预期、新产品进展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,761 | 7,356 | 9,452 | 12,461 | 15,871 | | 同比增长 (%) | -29.1% | 27.7% | 28.5% | 31.8% | 27.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 120 | 1,117 | 1,678 | 2,751 | 3,585 | | 同比增长 (%) | -94.6% | 832.8% | 50.2% | 63.9% | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The continuation of national subsidies is expected to stimulate consumption potential on both supply and demand sides, with stable white goods production planned for Q1 2026 [2][3] - The "Two New" policy is optimized and extended, which is anticipated to activate greater consumption potential in the home appliance sector [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Sales Outlook - The effect of national subsidies is expected to improve domestic sales conditions in Q1 2026 after the arrival of subsidy funds, despite a marginal slowdown in the subsidy effect [3][6] - January 2026 white goods production data shows a total of 34.53 million units, a 6% increase year-on-year, with variations in production across different product categories [6] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading companies with higher operational efficiency and mature overseas production layouts, which are seen as stable choices for investment [3] - Key stocks to consider include Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, not rated), and Hisense Visual (600060, increase holding) [3] - The long-term focus on overseas expansion is highlighted, with expectations for a valuation switch in 2026, particularly for Stone Technology (688169, not rated) [3] - Companies with stable core business performance and potential for a second growth curve, such as Anfu Technology (603031, not rated), are also recommended [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has officially released guidelines for commercial rocket companies to apply for the fifth set of listing standards on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which supports high-quality commercial rocket enterprises that have not yet formed a certain revenue scale to go public [2][7] - The commercial rocket industry is expected to experience rapid growth due to continuous policy support, accelerated technological iteration, and the release of rocket production capacity, leading to a significant increase in the number of rockets and launch frequency in China [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The guidelines emphasize that companies must have key core technologies and significant technological advantages or breakthroughs, focusing on the self-research capabilities of core components and key indicators such as payload capacity and multi-satellite launch capabilities [7] - The guidelines also require that commercial rocket companies achieve a milestone of successfully launching a medium to large reusable rocket payload into orbit [7] Market Dynamics - The commercial rocket sector is currently a bottleneck in the commercial aerospace industry, and with the release of production capacity, improvement in launch capabilities, and breakthroughs in reusable technology, the progress of satellite networking is expected to experience a leap forward [7] - The report identifies that the future of China's rocket sector will see a threefold resonance of capacity release, enhanced launch capabilities, and breakthroughs in reusable technology, which will accelerate the resolution of launch bottlenecks [7] Investment Targets - Recommended investment targets in the satellite sector include Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy), Zhenlei Technology (688270, Not Rated), and others [7] - Recommended investment targets in the rocket sector include Aerospace Power (600343, Not Rated), Zhonghang Heavy Industry (600765, Buy), and others [7]

谷歌液冷快速增长及供应商模式破局，国 内供应商将迎来较大机会 ——AI 液冷系列报告之三 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，随着谷歌 TPU 需求增长、TPU v7 服务器全面转向液冷，预计谷歌服务 器液冷市场将迎来快速增长。谷歌液冷供应商选择的破局，将为国内供应商提供更多配 套市场空间，液冷业务将成为国内供应商的第二增长曲线。相关标的：英维克、银轮股 份、飞龙股份、川环科技、思泉新材、祥鑫科技、中鼎股份、溯联股份、高澜股份、申 菱环境、科创新源、同飞股份、宏盛股份、奕东电子等。 风险提示 海外数据中心如谷歌等扩张速度低于预期、液冷渗透率低于预期、国内液冷供应商出海 进度低于预期、市场竞争加剧、假设条件变化影响测算结果。 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 29 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | 袁俊轩 | 执业证书编号：S0860523070005 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore prices continued their weak and volatile trend this week. Affected by the seasonal decline in hot metal production and cautious steel mill procurement, the demand side weakened marginally. The supply side maintained stable shipments, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Coupled with the high valuation, the upward momentum of prices was suppressed. Although there was some order resilience in the finished product market, the clear characteristics of the terminal seasonal off - season made it difficult to provide effective support. In the short term, the pattern of weak supply and demand remained unchanged. The market focus shifted to the extent of hot metal production cuts in January and policy expectations. It was expected that prices would continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to cost support and restocking rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28 million tons (-3.56%); Australian shipments were 19.506 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons (-4.97%); Brazilian shipments were 8.641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.488 million tons (-5.35%); the combined shipments from Australia and Brazil were 28.147 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.508 million tons (-5.09%) [3][38]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume**: The report presents the shipment volume data of four major mines through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [46][47]. - **Ocean Freight**: The ocean freight from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45 per ton (-13.99%); the ocean freight from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68 per ton (-2.80%) [53]. - **Domestic Port Arrival Volume**: This week, the iron ore arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 26.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.767 million tons (-2.82%) [55]. - **Domestic Mine Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 58.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96% (-1.61%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 37,100 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons per day (-1.62%) [57]. 3.2 Demand - **Steel Enterprise Production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.94%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01% (+0.01%); the daily average hot metal output was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons (+0.01%); the profit ratio was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% (+3.62%) [63]. - **Sintered Powder Consumption**: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons (-0.38%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 610,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,500 tons (+9.01%) [65]. - **Global Steel Production**: The report presents data on global blast furnace pig iron production, Chinese blast furnace pig iron production, and global crude steel production through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [71][75][76]. - **Port Dispatching Situation**: The report presents data on the seasonal dispatching volume of 45 ports and the daily average dispatching volume of Qingdao Port through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [83][84]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons (+2.23%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons (+2.43%) [87]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons (+1.56%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 12.0626 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,700 tons (+2.18%) [95]. 3.4 Futures Market - **Main Contract Situation and Basis**: The settlement price of the main contract was 776.50 yuan per ton, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.50 yuan per ton (-0.06%); the basis was 30.02 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 4.29 yuan per ton (-12.50%); the Platts iron ore price index was 107.90 US dollars per dry ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.20 US dollars per dry ton (+0.19%); the screw - to - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.003 [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread on the Futures Market**: The 9 - 1 spread was 40.50 yuan per ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 18.50 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.00 yuan per ton. The spreads between the domestic and foreign markets and between different varieties maintained narrow - range fluctuations, and there was no obvious structural differentiation [3]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The report presents data on iron ore futures positions, trading volume, and exchange - registered warrants through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [11][12][16]. 3.5 Spot Market - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: The report presents data on the Platts iron ore index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder price through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [17][19][22]. - **Lump - to - Powder Ore Price Spread**: The report presents data on the blending ore price spread, lump - to - powder ore price spread, and price spreads between different grades through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [23][26][29]. 3.6 Market Viewpoint Summary - **Overall Market Viewpoint Summary**: The market was in a state of loose supply and demand but with improved expectations. With high inventories, prices fluctuated strongly, and macro - sentiment supported prices. - **This Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 5 institutions were bullish, 7 were neutral, and 1 was bearish. - **Last Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 3 institutions were bullish, 12 were neutral, and 3 were bearish. - **Points of Disagreement and Expected Differences**: The game between the expected marginal improvement in supply and demand and high inventories and weak demand dominated the short - term divergence in the iron ore market [6]. 3.7 Key News and Industrial Chain Dynamics - **Steel Mill Dynamics**: On December 23, 2025, MagIron, a US steel raw material developer, planned to acquire the local Reynolds pellet plant; on December 24, 2025, Morocco's Somasteel company invested tens of millions of dollars to build a new steel mill; on December 26, 2025, the No. 2 blast furnace of ArcelorMittal's Fos - sur - Mer steel mill in France fully resumed production after a fire [4]. - **Mine Dynamics**: On December 22, 2025, Canadian mining company Champion Iron planned to acquire Norwegian iron ore producer Rana Gruber for $289 million; on December 26, 2025, the Guinea iron ore project of US mining company Ivanhoe successfully obtained the railway and port use agreement; on December 26, 2025, Australian exploration company Pear Gull completed the sale of its Parrot Island iron ore project [4]. - **Macro - news**: On December 22, 2025, the Premier of the State Council proposed to plan a number of major projects that could drive the overall situation; on December 22, 2025, the December LPR remained unchanged; on December 23, 2025, the A - share market showed a narrow - range consolidation with increased trading volume; on December 23, 2025, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed to promote the spot - house sales system; on December 24, 2025, the initial value of the annualized growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%; on December 25, 2025, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 214,000; on December 26, 2025, the renovation of old residential communities that started construction in the first 11 months had completed the annual plan; on December 26, 2025, China responded to the US tariff policy on China's semiconductor 301 investigation [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Views - Consensus is beginning to form, marking a historical moment. The non-ferrous sector saw significant gains, particularly a 3.69% increase on a single day. The previously noted lagging performance of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities is gaining market recognition. Looking ahead, the report anticipates that commodity prices may continue to reach historical highs in 2026, suggesting active monitoring of investment opportunities in related sectors [9][13]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with soaring physical prices reflecting a fundamental reaction to the erosion of trust in fiat currency systems. On December 26, silver prices surged by 10.47% in London and 11.15% on COMEX, indicating a systemic re-evaluation of asset values. The report forecasts continued record-breaking prices for precious metals in 2026, recommending a focus on investment opportunities in this sector [14]. - Copper: Labor disputes may exacerbate supply shortages, with expectations for rising copper prices and smelting fees. A potential strike at the Mantoverde copper mine could impact production, with an estimated output of around 30,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2025. The report also notes that the National Development and Reform Commission is encouraging consolidation in the copper smelting industry, which may improve smelting fees. The outlook remains positive for copper prices and smelting fees in 2026 [15]. - Aluminum: The National Development and Reform Commission may promote mergers and acquisitions among alumina producers, with aluminum prices expected to reach new highs due to the copper-aluminum price ratio effect. The report highlights the potential for steady profit growth in electrolytic aluminum enterprises and the acceleration of aluminum substitution for copper in air conditioning applications [16]. Steel Industry - Supply and Demand: The report indicates a slight increase in pig iron production, while steel demand is showing marginal weakness. The weekly consumption of rebar was reported at 2.03 million tons, reflecting a significant decrease of 2.86% week-on-week and 7.70% year-on-year [17][19]. - Inventory: Both social and steel mill inventories have decreased overall, with a slight accumulation in medium and heavy plates. Total inventory was reported at 8.73 million tons, down 3.74% week-on-week [22]. - Profitability: Cost differentiation is noted, with a recovery in steel profitability. The report states that the cost of long-process rebar has slightly decreased by 0.43%, while short-process costs have decreased by 0.13%. The profitability for long-process rebar has increased by 16 CNY per ton [29][32]. - Steel Prices: Overall steel prices have seen a slight decline, with the general steel price index decreasing by 0.28%. The report highlights that the price of cold-rolled steel has decreased by 0.58% week-on-week [36]. New Energy Metals - Supply: In November 2025, China's lithium carbonate production surged by 84.78% year-on-year, reaching 82,300 tons. The report also notes a slight increase in hydroxide lithium production [40]. - Demand: The production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in November 2025 maintained significant year-on-year growth, with production at 1.771 million units, up 17.89% year-on-year [44]. - Prices: Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have all increased. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 120,400 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 16.89% [49].

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a stable upward trend, with a potential for a red closing in the upcoming trading days despite minor fluctuations [3][10][15] Industry Comparison - The market has shown a consistent expectation for a rally in technology and dividend stocks since March 2023, indicating that the investment opportunities are shifting towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks after a four-year lull [4][16] Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-risk stocks across three main lines: 1) The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation due to technological empowerment and supply constraints, with a focus on new materials, chemicals, metals, and agricultural products [5][17] 2) The consumer sector, which has been stagnant for years, is at a turning point with generally undervalued stocks and supply contraction, suggesting potential price increases [5][17] 3) The manufacturing sector is transitioning from mere "story speculation" to validating "orders and revenues," with attention on communication, electronics, power equipment, and machinery that show performance verification expectations [5][17] Thematic Investments - Key areas of focus include: - Aerospace satellites, which are becoming a short-term market focal point, with potential for increased volatility and significant IPO progress in satellite networks and commercial rockets [6][18] - Price increases in upstream sectors, driven by supply contraction and structural demand growth, particularly in non-ferrous metals and new energy industries [6][18] - Artificial intelligence, which has shown rotation across various segments but with lower-than-expected intensity, suggesting a need for continued monitoring [6][18] - Nuclear fusion, which is moving from theoretical research to engineering practice, indicating a potential for significant investment demand as commercialization progresses [6][18] Semiconductor Expansion and Domestic Substitution - Domestic wafer fabs are expected to expand production next year, and the capitalization processes of major domestic memory chip manufacturers are advancing, highlighting opportunities in domestic chip manufacturers and semiconductor materials [7][19] Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery sector has seen prolonged adjustments, but potential industry catalysts may emerge in the first quarter, warranting attention on the solid-state battery supply chain [7][19]

年末煤炭供应显著收缩，动力煤短期有望 止跌 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20251222-20251228） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）在港口逐步去库的背景下，动力煤价格有望止跌，焦煤价格短期在季节 性补库的背景下走势偏强；（2）近期煤炭板块持续回调，市场对煤价预期较为悲观，短 期煤价止跌有望带来板块情绪的回暖，建议关注板块止跌反弹的机会。 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 28 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 焦煤价格如期反弹，动力煤关注港口库存 | 2025-12-21 | | --- | -- ...