Inflation Data - In August 2025, the U.S. CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in July, and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, slightly above the expected 0.3%[6] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[6] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation is diminishing, with core goods inflation rising from 1.2% to 1.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by imported goods[6] - The cumulative price drop for all U.S. imports (excluding tariffs) was approximately 0.4% since March 2025, indicating that foreign exporters absorbed about 45% of the tariff costs[6] Economic Outlook - The trend of domestic inflation in the U.S. is expected to continue declining, with rent inflation dropping to 3.6% year-on-year from 3.7%[6] - If inflation rises moderately while the job market weakens, expectations for interest rate cuts are likely to strengthen, with a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September 2025[6][18] Risks - Risks include a hard landing for the U.S. economy, a significant rebound in inflation, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts not meeting expectations[3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term, medium - to high - grade credit bonds remain the top choice, and the idea of excavating based on the issuer's yield curve should be continued. In the current environment, the market pursues certainty and low volatility, so short - term, medium - to high - grade credit bonds are preferred for the pure - bond part. It is recommended to look for riding opportunities in the steep part of the curve or "convex points" of individual bonds when gradually moving towards the medium - and long - term [5][8]. - There are issuers with relatively large term spreads among those with an implied rating of AA+ or above. After the trading concentration in the 1 - 2Y segment further increases, the 2 - 3Y term spread may be repaired, which is suitable for institutions with strong liability - side stability to layout in advance. For issuers with an implied AA rating, there is also room for excavation, and investors can sink according to their needs [5][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint - The short - term, medium - to high - grade credit bonds are still the best option. Last week, the bond market sentiment was fragile, affected by the stock market sentiment and negative news such as fund fee adjustment and tax exemption cancellation. The short - term of credit bonds also adjusted last week, but the adjustment was limited due to the short duration, and the 2 - 3Y medium - term adjusted more, causing the 3Y - 1Y term spread to widen [5][8]. - For specific excavation, among issuers with an implied AA+ rating or above, the 2Y - 1Y term spread is mostly around 10 - 15bp, and the 3Y - 2Y is concentrated in the range of 15 - 20bp. For issuers with an implied AA rating, the 2Y - 1Y term spread of 20 - 30bp is relatively high, and 15 - 20bp has relatively large excavation space [5][10][12]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, issuer rating or outlook downgrades, or bond rating downgrades this week. However, some overseas ratings were adjusted. For example, Fitch downgraded the long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating and senior unsecured rating of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited from "A" to "A - ", and Moody's downgraded the long - term credit rating of Sinochem Hong Kong (Group) Limited from A3 to Baa1 [15][16]. - There were several major negative events, including some real - estate companies facing litigation, being restricted from high - end consumption, and failing to repay debts on time [17]. 3.2.2 Primary Market Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds doubled week - on - week, the maturity volume was roughly the same, and the market returned to net financing. The primary issuance cost of medium - to high - grade new bonds was basically flat week - on - week. Six credit bonds were cancelled or postponed for issuance, with a total scale of 290 million yuan [17][18][20]. 3.2.3 Secondary Market Trading - The valuations of credit bonds across all grades and terms were adjusted again, with the central adjustment range around 5bp. Credit spreads were mostly flat, and some medium - and long - term spreads were passively narrowed. The 3Y - 1Y term spread of medium - to high - grade bonds widened, while most other spreads narrowed. The AA - AAA grade spread fluctuated slightly, with the 5Y spread widening by up to 3bp [22][24]. - In terms of credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads of urban investment bonds fluctuated within ±1bp, with medium - to high - valuation regions tending to narrow. Most industry spreads of industrial bonds were flat, and the steel industry spread narrowed by up to 3bp week - on - week [26][28]. - The liquidity of credit bonds further declined, and the turnover rate increased by 0.04 percentage points to 1.53%. The issuers of bonds with the top - widening spreads were mostly real - estate companies, and the valuation of private construction company Xinjie Investment also increased significantly [5][32].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | 021-63326320 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | 021-63326320 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | 强赎触发频繁，博弈收益可观 | 2025-09-14 | | --- | --- | | 再议本轮债市调整原因：固定收益市场周 | 2025-09-09 | | 观察 | | | 土储专项债供给增多，对城投债务压力缓 | 2025-09-08 | | 释效果有限：信用债市场周观察 | | 风险提示 估值小幅压缩，跟涨能力减弱 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 政策变化超预期；货币政策 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 低位板块开始产生吸引力 策略周报 20250914 研究结论 ⚫ 指数仍有上行空间，但需要开始关注风险 本周上证指数运行至新高附近（收于 3870.6 点），上周指数回调之际，我们提出震 荡上行趋势未变，本周修复符合预期。指数仍有上行空间，但此时更应关注短期上 行的阻力，我们认为阻力正在逐渐加大，需要开始关注短期持续上行后的调整风 险。 ⚫ 低位板块开始产生吸引力 行业结构方面，本周电子（6.1%）、房地产（6.0%）和农林牧渔（4.8%）领涨。 通信（3.0%）的表现符合我们上周认为会修复的观点，修复完成后，我们认为短 期需要且行且退。上周我们认为科技内部会切换，高端制造是重点，本周低位出现 普涨的情况，科技内部切换存在但并不领先，我们认为低位周期板块开始产生吸引 力，关注化工、农林牧渔、钢铁和食品饮料，板块内部分公司存在盈利修复的预 期，值得关注的是盈利修复后，部分公司的红利吸引力会提升。 ⚫ 主题方面，高端制造攻势尚在，布局关注低位制造业和周期题材 1）高端制造的进攻势头未变 我们认为高端制造短期进攻势头尚在，关注国产半导体&先进制程和机器人，但需要 注意追涨风险。国产半导体&先 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [9][24]. Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing (社融) has declined for the first time this year, primarily due to weak credit demand and a decrease in government bonds, with August's social financing year-on-year growth at 8.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 percentage points [9][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in new loans, with a year-on-year decrease of 3,100 billion yuan in August, reflecting ongoing challenges in the credit market [14][20]. - M1 growth shows a trend of improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 6.0% in August, although non-bank deposits have cooled compared to previous months [20][21]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - In August 2025, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which was higher than market expectations, but still represented a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan [9][10]. - The report notes that the decline in social financing is largely driven by a reduction in both corporate loans and government bonds, with corporate direct financing also seeing a slight decrease [11][12]. Loan Dynamics - Total RMB loans grew by 6.8% year-on-year in August, with new loans amounting to 590 billion yuan, slightly above expectations but still reflecting a year-on-year decrease [14][15]. - The report identifies a "seesaw" effect between short-term corporate loans and bill discounting, indicating a strategic shift in bank lending practices [15][16]. Deposit Trends - In August, M1 and M2 growth rates were 6.0% and 8.8% respectively, with a narrowing gap between the two [20][21]. - New RMB deposits totaled 2.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1,600 billion yuan, indicating a shift in deposit behavior among residents and enterprises [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: high-dividend stocks due to insurance rate adjustments and fundamentally strong small to medium-sized banks [24]. - Specific stock recommendations include China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and others, with some rated as "Buy" [24].

固定收益 | 专题报告 强赎触发频繁，博弈收益可观 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 14 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | 再议本轮债市调整原因：固定收益市场周 | 2025-09-09 | | --- | --- | | 观察 | | | 土储专项债供给增多，对城投债务压力缓 | 2025-09-08 | | 释效果有限：信用债市场周观察 | | | 估值回调暂告段落，转债进入震荡慢涨阶 | 2025-09-08 | | 段：可转债市场周观察 | | 风险提示： 可转债风险暴露超预期；可 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [6][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the release of Tesla's next-generation dexterous hand is expected to enhance the flexibility and functionality of the dexterous hand industry, leading to an optimistic outlook for the industry chain [3][9]. - The dexterous hand technology has undergone significant iterations, with Tesla's third-generation model achieving 22 degrees of freedom, which is a substantial increase from the first generation's 11 degrees [9][10]. - The report emphasizes that the advancement in dexterous hand technology will not only improve product value but also drive the overall industry towards higher degrees of freedom and functionality [14]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report tracks the robotics industry, particularly focusing on the dexterous hand segment, which is poised for upgrades and increased market activity [1][5]. Technological Advancements - Tesla's dexterous hand has evolved through multiple iterations, with the latest model featuring 26 actuators per arm, significantly enhancing its operational capabilities [10][9]. - The integration of multiple sensors in dexterous hands is expected to create a multi-modal data collection platform, which will improve AI training efficiency and model generalization capabilities [13][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several investment targets within the dexterous hand industry, including Zhenyu Technology (300953, Buy), Hanwei Technology (300007, Not Rated), Nanshan Zhishang (300918, Not Rated), and Mingzhi Electric (603728, Not Rated) [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 48.48 CNY, based on a 24x PE for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated stable performance with a revenue of 46.6 billion CNY in H1 2025, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 12.0 billion CNY, up 7.4% year-on-year [10]. - The dual growth drivers are the respiratory and blood glucose monitoring businesses, with the respiratory product line seeing over 40% growth due to continuous R&D and improved sales channels [10]. - The company is actively expanding overseas, achieving 6.1 billion CNY in international revenue in H1 2025, a 26.6% increase year-on-year, with a focus on respiratory therapy products [10]. - The company is investing in AI wearable technology to create a health management ecosystem, integrating various health monitoring devices to enhance brand loyalty [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 8,669 million CNY, 9,971 million CNY, and 11,302 million CNY, respectively, with a growth rate of 14.6%, 15.0%, and 13.4% [5]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 2,020 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 11.9% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 2.02 CNY, with subsequent years projected at 2.37 CNY and 2.81 CNY [3][5].

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In August, the core CPI and PPI both showed year-on-year improvement, driven by simultaneous policy efforts on both supply and demand sides[6] - The core CPI year-on-year growth has expanded for four consecutive months, with industrial consumer goods prices improving due to consumption promotion policies[6] - The CPI in August was -0.4%, while the core CPI was 0.9%, indicating a significant divergence primarily due to the drag from pork prices[6] Group 2: PPI Dynamics - The PPI year-on-year decline has narrowed for the first time since March, indicating a shift towards more positive signals driven by domestic demand[6] - Key sectors like black metal smelting saw PPI improvements, with year-on-year declines of -4% compared to -10% previously, reflecting better pricing and production conditions[6] - Emerging industries are expected to continue supporting PPI growth, with sectors like electronic materials and smart drones showing stable performance[6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - Upgrading consumption demand remains a crucial support for PPI, with certain sectors like sports equipment and nutritional food manufacturing showing year-on-year PPI growth of no less than 0.9%[6] - Policies aimed at enhancing consumer sentiment, such as "old-for-new" exchanges, are expected to further stimulate service consumption[6] - The overall external trade environment remains challenging, but domestic demand is anticipated to be the main driver for future recovery in both CPI and PPI[6]

云南白药 000538.SZ 公司研究 | 中报点评 工业稳步增长，管线有序推进 云南白药 2025 年中报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 39,111 | 40,033 | 42,417 | 44,281 | 46,777 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.2% | 2.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,831 | 5,712 | 6,058 | 6,667 | 7,333 | | 同比增长 (%) | 43.3% | 18.2% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 4,094 | 4,749 | 5,110 | 5,605 | 6,145 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.4% | 16.0% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | | 每股收益（元） | 2.29 | 2.66 | 2.86 | 3.14 ...