Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 29.28 CNY, based on a 48x PE for 2025 [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve small batch production and delivery of various aircraft landing gear in 2025, indicating a significant expansion in the landing gear market [6]. - The military demand is anticipated to recover, while the civil aviation brake market presents substantial domestic replacement opportunities due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [6]. - The company has established a dedicated team to improve accounts receivable collection, which is expected to enhance profitability [6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to decline to 538 million CNY in 2024, followed by a rebound to 1,078 million CNY in 2025, representing a growth of 100.3% [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop to 16 million CNY in 2024, but recover to 203 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 1159.7% [2][9]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to decrease to 49.8% in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 50.7% by 2027 [2][9]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is adjusted to 0.61 CNY for 2025, with further increases to 0.82 CNY in 2026 and 1.06 CNY in 2027 [2][9]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 3.0% in 2024 to 22.7% in 2027 [2][9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 0.6% in 2024 to 11.5% in 2027, indicating improved profitability [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, particularly focusing on the weight loss market driven by GLP-1RAs [9]. Core Insights - The global weight loss market is rapidly expanding, with significant growth in GLP-1RAs, which saw sales reach $15.96 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.9% [9][15]. - The development trend is shifting from merely achieving weight loss to enhancing the quality of weight loss, with a focus on long-acting formulations, oral medications, and multi-target molecules [9][22]. - Major multinational corporations (MNCs) are actively positioning themselves in the weight loss sector, creating numerous business development opportunities [9][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Weight Loss Market Surge - The GLP-1RAs market is experiencing high growth, with Q1 2025 sales reaching $15.96 billion, a 47.9% increase year-on-year [9][15]. - Semaglutide has become the new "king of drugs" with sales of $8.38 billion, surpassing other major drugs [9][19]. 2. Development Trends: From Quantity to Quality - Current weight loss drugs are achieving results comparable to surgical interventions, with average weight loss figures nearing those of surgical procedures [22]. - The focus is on long-acting, oral formulations, and multi-target combinations to improve patient adherence and reduce lean body mass loss [22][23]. 2.1 Long-Acting Formulations - ASC30 has the longest half-life among long-acting formulations, supporting potential monthly dosing [23][25]. - MariTide and GZR18 are the fastest progressing long-acting formulations in clinical trials [23][27]. 2.2 Oral Formulations - Oral formulations are being developed primarily in peptide and small molecule categories, with semaglutide tablets nearing NDA submission [30][31]. - Orforglipron is expected to submit NDA by the end of 2025, potentially becoming the first approved oral GLP-1RA [46]. 2.3 Multi-Target Molecules - Multi-target molecules like GLP-1R/GIPR are gaining traction, with several in clinical development [50]. - The report highlights the potential of new targets and combinations to enhance weight loss efficacy [50]. 3. MNCs Actively Positioning - MNCs are increasingly engaging in significant transactions within the weight loss sector, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk leading the way [9][30]. - There are substantial business development opportunities for domestic companies in the weight loss market due to their competitive advantages [9][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer with a target price of HKD 33.69 based on a projected 19 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [4][10][6]. Core Views - The current consumption recovery has led to a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025. The expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are projected to be CNY 1.62, CNY 1.75, and CNY 1.86 respectively, down from the previous forecast of CNY 2.18 for 2025 [4][10]. - The "Su Chao" phenomenon is significantly stimulating beer demand, particularly benefiting China Resources Beer as a market leader in Jiangsu province. The report highlights a nearly 90% month-on-month increase in beer transaction volume in Jiangsu since the start of the "Su Chao" event [9][10]. - The company is expected to continue strong growth in mid-to-high-end products, with Heineken brand sales increasing by 20% in the first five months of the year [9][10]. - The diversification of sales channels, particularly through instant retail partnerships, is seen as a key growth driver for the company [9][10]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2023 is CNY 38,932 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.40%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly to CNY 38,635 million, followed by a recovery to CNY 39,835 million in 2025 [5][13]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 4,427 million in 2023 to CNY 6,232 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.96% [5][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be CNY 5,153 million in 2023, with a slight decline in 2024 to CNY 4,739 million, before recovering to CNY 5,255 million in 2025 [5][13]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 41.36% in 2023 to 44.86% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [8] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing a weakening of fundamentals, leading to renewed expectations for policy interventions. The new housing market has seen some success with the "good housing" policy since 2025, but the de-stocking of old inventory remains unsatisfactory. The second-hand housing market has seen a notable increase in transaction volume through price adjustments, yet housing prices have been on a continuous decline since Q4 of last year. As of May, the new residential prices in 70 cities have decreased by 0.22% month-on-month and 4.08% year-on-year, indicating a comprehensive downturn in data and increasing the necessity for real estate stimulus policies. Historically, when the fundamentals weaken and stock prices approach new lows, it is considered an opportune time for investment, suggesting that the current policy negotiation window in the real estate sector has opened [2][3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of -1.4% against the CSI 300. The CSI 300 index closed at 3846.6 with a weekly decline of 0.5%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2110.8 with a weekly decline of 1.9% [4][11]. Policy Developments - Recent adjustments to housing provident fund policies are expected to optimize transactions and boost market confidence. Various cities have announced increases in loan limits and reductions in down payment ratios, which could potentially enhance the utilization of provident fund loans. However, the marginal effectiveness of these conventional measures may be limited, and if unexpected relaxations occur, it could significantly stabilize and rebound the real estate market [3][10]. Sales Performance - In the 25th week, new home sales in 44 major cities increased by 8.2% compared to the previous week, totaling 18,000 units. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities also rose by 1.8%, reaching 20,000 units. Inventory levels decreased by 0.2 million units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 22.0 months, which is an increase of 0.5 months compared to the previous week [6][13][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks based on the balance of policy negotiations and financial safety, including: - JinDi Group (600383, Accumulate) - Poly Developments (600048, Buy) - China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy) - Beike-W (02423, Buy) - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209, Buy) - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to New Town Holdings (601155, Not Rated), Binjiang Group (002244, Not Rated), and China Resources Land (01109, Not Rated) [10][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, achieving a market share of 24% in sales volume and 29% in sales revenue, solidifying its leading position in the Chinese television market [10]. - The FIFA World Cup is expected to enhance mid-term growth through "technical cooperation and scene ecology," which will boost brand recognition and sales in both mature and emerging markets [10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.95, 2.23, and 2.53 yuan respectively, with a target price of 29.25 yuan based on a 15x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [3][11]. - Projected revenue for 2025 is 64.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [5]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.54 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 13.3% year-on-year increase [5]. Key Financial Metrics - Revenue growth rates are projected at 17.2% for 2023, 9.2% for 2024, and 9.9% for 2025 [5]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 15.9% in 2025, with a net margin of 4.0% [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 11.5% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2025 [5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company leads in high-end technology, with a 30% sales volume and 32% sales revenue market share in MiniLED televisions [10]. - The company has a 42% sales volume and 49.6% sales revenue share in the 100-inch large screen market, reinforcing its competitive edge [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service is expected to enhance the sales of existing models and the upcoming Cybercab, with a fixed fare of $4.2 per ride during the initial phase [9] - Strong players in the autonomous driving and vehicle manufacturing sectors are anticipated to capture market share in the Robotaxi market, with companies like Baidu, WeRide, and Pony.ai leading in operations [3][9] - The commercialization of Robotaxi services is accelerating in China, with various companies planning to expand their fleets and services significantly by 2025 [9] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks in the T-chain benefiting from Robotaxi developments include: - Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179, Buy) - Yinlun Machinery (002126, Buy) - Top Group (601689, Buy) - Aikodi (600933, Buy) - Rongtai Co., Ltd. (605133, Buy) - Huayu Automotive (600741, Buy) [4] - Recommended smart driving vehicle stocks include: - SAIC Motor (600104, Buy) - JAC Motors (600418, Not Rated) - XPeng Motors (09868, Not Rated) - Li Auto (02015, Not Rated) - Geely Automobile (00175, Buy) [4] - Recommended smart driving chain stocks include: - Jingwei Hirain Technologies (688326, Buy) - Bertel (603596, Buy) - Desay SV (002920, Buy) - Huayang Group (002906, Buy) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "front - running" market in the bond market is expected to continue around the quarter - end, and the interest rate downward process is not over yet. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the interest rate adjustment risk after the market reaches unanimous optimism, so it is recommended to hold high - liquidity varieties [4][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Viewpoint: The "Front - Running" Market in the Bond Market May Continue - Previously, the report continuously suggested bond - buying opportunities. The main logic was that institutional concerns about the capital market gradually subsided, and the market shifted from divergence to unanimous optimism. Last week, this process continued, manifested in the compression of spreads, including traditional term spreads and credit spreads, and the market started to seek returns from the convex points of the curve [4][7]. - The "front - running" market was triggered by the stable capital market during the tax period and quarter - end. It is expected to continue for some time due to factors such as the seasonal expansion of fixed - income asset management products in July, the potential spread of optimistic sentiment from banks and insurance to funds, the seasonal decline of capital interest rates after the quarter - end, and the potential positive feedback of interest rate decline [4][12]. - The "front - running" market can continue around the quarter - end, but one should be cautious about interest rate adjustment risks when the market becomes unanimously optimistic. It is recommended to hold high - liquidity varieties [4][20]. - Last week, the bond market continued to expect monetary policy easing. Despite some unmet expectations, the loose capital market and large banks' short - bond purchases supported the bond market, with short - end yields declining rapidly. On June 20, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by - 4.5bp, - 2.6bp, - 4.2bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.4bp respectively compared to the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fixed - Income Market Outlook: Intensive Release of Overseas Economic Data 3.2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Release - This week, the US will release data such as the May core PCE and the June University of Michigan consumer confidence index. Other important data and events include the eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Germany's June IFO business climate index, etc. [21][22]. 3.2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply Scale of Interest - Rate Bonds - This week, it is estimated that 846.6 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds will be issued, which is at a high level compared to the same period. Treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a total scale of about 110 billion yuan, including a 91 - day discount treasury bond and a 30 - year special treasury bond worth 71 billion yuan. Local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 585.7 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of about 150 billion yuan [22]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook: Yields Fluctuated Downward 3.3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Situation - The central bank's reverse repurchase resulted in a net withdrawal. The reverse - repurchase injection scale reached 960.3 billion yuan, with a small net injection, but considering the MLF maturity, the open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. Capital interest rates were relatively stable. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase continued to rise, and the overnight proportion averaged around 89.7%. Capital interest rates showed differentiation. The secondary yields of medium - and long - term certificates of deposit continued to decline [28][29][34]. 3.3.2 The Capital Market Continued to Favor the Bond Market - The bond market continued to expect monetary policy easing. Although some expectations were not met, the loose capital market and large banks' short - bond purchases supported the bond market, with short - end yields declining rapidly. On June 20, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by - 4.5bp, - 2.6bp, - 4.2bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.4bp respectively compared to the previous week, with the 1 - year treasury bond having the largest decline [46]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Retail Data - On the production side, the operating rates were differentiated. The blast furnace operating rate and semi - steel tire operating rate increased, while the petroleum asphalt operating rate and PTA operating rate decreased. The year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude steel output in early June remained negative [53]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales increased. The year - on - year growth rates of the 30 - large - city commercial housing sales area increased by about 5.9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 10.5% and 8% respectively [53]. - On the price side, crude oil prices rose, copper and aluminum prices increased, and coal prices were differentiated. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index decreased slightly, the cement index decreased, and the glass index increased. The output of rebar increased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly to 3.69 million tons, and the futures price increased by 1.1%. In the downstream consumer sector, vegetable, fruit, and pork prices changed by 1.2%, - 3.7%, and 0.3% respectively [54].

价格价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 23 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | 万里扬 | 021-63325888*2504 | | | wanliyang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | | 农药行业爆炸事故引发交易性行情，看好 | 2025-06-15 | | --- | --- | | 差异化龙头的成长逻辑 | | | 本周宏观预期修复，大宗品表现较强 | 2025-06-08 | | 本周油价小幅下跌，农药关注度较高 | 2025-06-03 | 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 以色列伊朗冲突加剧油气化工价格波动 核心观点 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 从战略与策略角度看稀土板块的配置价值 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 25 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 23 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 重视稀土产业链的供给侧逻辑：——有色 | 2025-06-08 | | --- | --- | | 钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 23 周） | | | 美债危机叠加关税冲击，关注黄金板块的 | 2025-06-03 | | 投 资 机 会 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 | | | （2025 年第 22 周） | | | 积极关注稀土等战略金属板块的投资机 | 2025-05-18 | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 20 周） | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The trading volume and liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds have significantly increased in the past two weeks, approaching the historical high in July and August 2024. The market's pursuit of duration for returns is expected to continue this week. The ultra-long credit bond strategy has a certain probability of success but a low odds. Short-duration credit enhancement remains a highly certain strategy [5][8]. - The convertible bond market has a relatively cautious style. In an environment where the equity market is expected to fluctuate, the upward momentum of convertible bonds is limited. However, the current valuation of convertible bonds is not significantly overestimated, and there may be opportunities for capital inflow into high-quality, low-volatility individual bonds. The potential credit risk in June is coming to an end, and if unexpected events occur, the opportunities are considered greater than the risks [5][19]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1 Credit Bond and Convertible Bond Views: How Long Can the Ultra-Long Credit Bond Market Last? - When short-term trading becomes crowded, the market starts to seek returns from duration. This phenomenon is expected to continue this week. The narrowing of short-term spreads has reached an extreme level, forcing liquidity to shift to longer-term bonds of medium-quality issuers. The expansion of fixed-income asset management products and the increasing insurance allocation willingness are expected to bring incremental funds, and the market's offensive on long-term credit bonds is unlikely to end soon [5][8]. - The ultra-long credit bond strategy has execution problems, such as the need for significant interest rate declines or spread compressions to achieve better returns and the lack of stable institutional investors, resulting in rapid loss of liquidity during market corrections. Short-duration credit enhancement is a more certain strategy, and if the liability side is stable, extending duration through secondary perpetual bonds is recommended rather than ultra-long credit bonds [5][13]. - The convertible bond market has a cautious style, with high-rated and low-priced convertible bonds performing better. The three characteristics of the convertible bond market in 2025 remain unchanged. In an environment where the equity market is expected to fluctuate, the upward momentum of convertible bonds is limited, but the long-term allocation logic remains valid, and there may be opportunities for high-quality, low-volatility individual bonds. The potential credit risk in June is ending, and if unexpected events occur, the opportunities are greater than the risks [5][19]. 2 Credit Bond Review: The Spread Compression Market is Becoming More Extreme 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults or overdue payments during the week from June 16 to June 22, 2025. Several companies had their主体评级 or展望下调, and some overseas companies had their ratings downgraded. There were also several significant negative events, such as companies being issued warning letters by regulatory authorities and being listed as dishonest被执行人 [21][22][23]. 2.2 Primary Issuance: Net Financing Continues to Remain at the Billion-Level - From June 16 to June 22, 2025, the primary issuance of credit bonds reached 411.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of 105.4 billion yuan, maintaining a billion-level net financing for three consecutive weeks. Three credit bonds were canceled or postponed for issuance, with a total planned issuance scale of 3.6 billion yuan. The primary issuance costs of medium and high-grade bonds showed a differentiated trend last week [24]. 2.3 Secondary Trading: Liquidity Continues to Strengthen, and Urban Investment Slightly Outperforms Industry - The valuation of credit bonds declined across the board, and the risk-free interest rate curve flattened bullishly. Except for the passive widening of the spreads of low-grade long-term bonds, the spreads of other bonds narrowed or remained unchanged. The term spreads of each grade were mainly flat, but the 3Y - 5Y part of medium and low-grade bonds slightly underperformed. The long-term grade spreads were under pressure to widen. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most provinces narrowed by 1 - 3bp last week, with Qinghai having the largest narrowing of 4bp. The industry bonds slightly underperformed urban investment bonds, and the real estate industry's spreads continued to widen by 27bp. The liquidity of credit bonds continued to strengthen, with the turnover rate increasing by 0.27 percentage points to 2.31% [26][30][33]. 3 Convertible Bond Review: The Equity Market Pulled Back, and the Convertible Bond Index Slightly Declined 3.1 Overall Market Performance: The Stock Market Fluctuated and Closed Lower, with Banks and Communications Leading the Gains - From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and other major indices mostly closed lower. Only the banking, communications, and electronics sectors rose, while the beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical sectors had the largest declines. Most of the leading convertible bonds outperformed their underlying stocks, and the list of popular individual bonds changed little [36]. 3.2 Convertible Bonds Slightly Declined, and the Opportunities Outweighed the Risks - Last week, the convertible bonds slightly declined, with the average daily trading volume significantly decreasing to 61.305 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.17%, the parity center decreased by 1.6% to 94.5 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 2.2% to 28.7%. High-rated, low-priced, and low-premium convertible bonds performed better, while high-priced, low-rated, and small-cap convertible bonds underperformed. The view on convertible bonds has changed little. In an environment where the equity market is expected to fluctuate, the upward momentum of convertible bonds is limited, but the current valuation of convertible bonds is not significantly overestimated. The long-term allocation logic of the convertible bond market remains valid, and there may be opportunities for capital inflow into high-quality, low-volatility individual bonds. The potential credit risk in June is ending, and if unexpected events occur, the opportunities are greater than the risks [39].