证券研究报告 大炼化周报：成本端支撑减弱，长丝价格下滑 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年12月21日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2674元/吨，环比+104元/吨（环比+4%）；国 外重点大炼化项目本周价差为1305元/吨，环比-24元/吨（环比-2%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6293/6536/7686元/吨，环比分别-111/-125/-61元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为-58/-163/+3元/吨，环比分别-75/-85/-42元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 19.0/24.3/24.9天，环比分别+2.3/+2.1/+1.0天，长丝开工率为89.1%，环比-0.7pct。 ◼ 【炼油板块】国内成品油:本周汽油/柴油/航煤价格下跌。美国成品油 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 储能全球开花需求旺盛、AIDC 和人形加速 2025 年 12 月 21 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -15% -8% -1% 6% 13% 20% 27% 34% 41% 48% 2024/12/23 2025/4/22 2025/8/20 2025/12/18 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《储能全球开花需求旺盛，AIDC 和人 形加速》 2025-12-14 《储能锂电淡季不淡、AIDC 和人形加 2025-12-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 50 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 速》 ◼ 电气设备 9787 下跌 3.12%，表现弱于大盘。（本周，12 月 15 日-12 月 19 日），发电设备跌 3.77%，风电 跌 3.22 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The commercial rocket sector is in a critical growth phase, with significant potential for investment opportunities as it transitions from initial development to operational capabilities [2]. - The upcoming launch of the Long March 12A rocket on December 23, 2025, is expected to mark a significant milestone, potentially making China the second country to master medium-sized reusable rocket technology, which could drastically reduce launch costs and support low Earth orbit satellite constellation development [5][10]. - A series of new commercial rockets are anticipated to have their maiden flights in 2026, which could lead to a transformative shift in the industry as China enters the era of reusable rockets [11]. - The SpaceX Starship and Starlink V3 launches are set to occur in 2026, with the new Starlink satellites expected to significantly enhance network capacity [12][16]. - SpaceX is preparing for an IPO in mid-2026, aiming to raise over $30 billion, which will help accelerate developments in the commercial space sector [17]. - The U.S. government has introduced a "America First" space policy, which is expected to bolster domestic industry growth through regulatory improvements and increased funding for commercial space initiatives [18][22]. - A new wave of satellite deployment is expected in 2026, driven by major companies initiating large-scale satellite tenders, which will stimulate growth across the entire aerospace supply chain [23]. Summary by Sections 1. Upcoming Events in Commercial Aerospace - The Long March 12A rocket is set for its first flight on December 23, 2025, with a focus on vertical recovery technology [10]. - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for reusable rocket launches, with multiple new models expected to undergo testing [11]. - SpaceX plans to launch its third-generation Starlink satellites in 2026, significantly increasing network capacity [12][16]. - The U.S. has outlined a comprehensive space policy aimed at maintaining leadership in space exploration and commercial activities [18][20]. 2. Investment Recommendations and Related Companies - Rocket Sector: Companies such as Chaojie Co., Srey New Materials, and others are highlighted for their roles in the commercial rocket supply chain [2][25]. - Satellite Sector: Companies like Shanghai Hanyun and Xinke Mobile are noted for their contributions to satellite payloads and technology [26]. - Space Computing: Companies such as Shunhao Co. and Dongfang Risheng are recognized for their investments in space computing and energy systems [27].

证券研究报告 原油周报：国际油价下跌，关注地缘风险 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年12月21日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别59.9/56.1美元/桶，较上周分别-1.9/-2.0美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.2/4.1/0.2亿桶，环比-103/- 127/+25/-74万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1384万桶/天，环比-1万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周406台，环比-8台。美国活跃压裂 车队本周168部，环比-8部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1699万桶/天，环比+13万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为94.8%，环比+0.3pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量为653/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, influenced by geopolitical factors, the long - term monetary policy misalignment will reshape the purchasing power of private and public sectors. However, in the context of the public and market's understanding of the need for increased public sector spending, the overall monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, which is beneficial for gold. Japan's situation is unique, as long - term ultra - loose policies have helped it out of the "deflation trap", but the recovery is uneven, and the potential for political polarization in 2026 is a "gray rhino" risk [1] - Domestically, the equity market continued to fluctuate this week, with significant volatility in the ChiNext and STAR Market. Looking towards 2026, the uncertainty on the policy side is decreasing, and the sustainability of the computing power mainline on the industrial side will be continuously questioned by the market. Pan - mainline stocks may tend to rise in the fluctuations, and small - cap stocks will benefit more from the spread market [1] - In terms of convertible bond strategies, three pan - mainline value depression directions are recommended: AI end - side, especially in the consumer electronics field; upstream targets such as key substrates for chip manufacturing and packaging and testing; and the power transmission and distribution equipment sector [1][34] - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, etc. [1][35] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Market Review 3.1.1. Overall Decline in the Equity Market - From December 15th to December 19th, the overall equity market showed a mixed trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.03% to close at 3890.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.89% to close at 13140.21 points, the ChiNext Index fell 2.26% to close at 3122.24 points, and the CSI 300 fell 0.28% to close at 4568.18 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets was about 17409.78 billion yuan, a decrease of about 1949.17 billion yuan from last week, with a week - on - week decline of 10.07% [1][6] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 19 industries closed up, with 8 industries rising more than 2%. The top - performing industries included commercial retail, non - bank finance, beauty care, social services, and basic chemicals, while the bottom - performing industries were electronics, power equipment, machinery, communications, and computers [11] 3.1.2. Overall Rise in the Convertible Bond Market - From December 15th to December 19th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.48% to close at 485.28 points. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 20 industries closed up, with 3 industries rising more than 2%. The top - performing industries were light industry, commercial retail, transportation, beauty care, and petroleum and petrochemicals, while the bottom - performing industries were non - bank finance, communications, electronics, machinery, and household appliances [6][12] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 636.11 billion yuan, a significant increase of 29.75 billion yuan, with a week - on - week change of 4.91%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Zai 22 Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, etc. About 63.48% of the individual convertible bonds rose, with about 32.75% rising between 0 - 1% and 15.37% rising more than 2% [12] - The overall conversion premium rate of the market increased this week, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 42.55%, an increase of 0.21 pcts from last week. Different price, parity, rating, and scale intervals showed different trends in the conversion premium rate. In terms of industry, 23 industries' conversion premium rates widened, and 10 industries' conversion parities increased [17][23][26] 3.1.3. Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - From December 15th to December 19th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were negative, and the underlying stocks had a larger decline. The trading volume of the convertible bond market increased by 4.91% week - on - week, at the 54.50% quantile level since 2022, while the trading volume of the underlying stock market decreased by 6.01% week - on - week, at the 70.20% quantile level since 2022. About 75.29% of the convertible bonds closed up, and about 60.76% of the underlying stocks closed up. Overall, the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market was better this week [28] - Analyzing each trading day, different markets had better trading sentiment on different days. For example, the underlying stock market had better trading sentiment on Monday, Tuesday, and Friday, while the convertible bond market had better trading sentiment on Wednesday and Thursday [30] 3.2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Overseas, the long - term monetary policy misalignment will reshape the purchasing power of private and public sectors. The overall monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, which is beneficial for gold. Japan's situation is special, and the potential for political polarization in 2026 is a "gray rhino" risk [1][32] - Domestically, looking towards 2026, the uncertainty on the policy side is decreasing, and the sustainability of the computing power mainline on the industrial side will be continuously questioned by the market. Pan - mainline stocks may tend to rise in the fluctuations, and small - cap stocks will benefit more from the spread market [1][34] - In terms of convertible bond strategies, three pan - mainline value depression directions are recommended: AI end - side, especially in the consumer electronics field; upstream targets such as key substrates for chip manufacturing and packaging and testing; and the power transmission and distribution equipment sector. Specific stocks are recommended for both existing and upcoming targets [1][34] - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, etc. [1][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector [1]. Core Views - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in the sales proportion of savings products. The report anticipates improvements in both the liability and investment sides of the insurance business [46]. - The securities sector is undergoing transformation, which is expected to bring new business growth points, benefiting from a recovering market and favorable policy environment [46]. - The non-bank financial sector is currently undervalued, providing a safety margin and a balanced risk-reward profile [46]. Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Subsector Recent Performance - From December 15 to December 19, 2025, all non-bank financial sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the insurance sector rising by 7.04%, multi-financial sector by 2.04%, and securities sector by 1.06%, while the overall non-bank financial sector increased by 2.99% [11][12]. Securities Sector - Trading volume decreased month-on-month in December 2025, with the average daily trading amount for stock funds at 21,087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.09% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.91% [16]. - The margin balance reached 24,994 billion yuan, up 32.93% year-on-year and 34.04% since the beginning of the year [16]. - The report highlights the merger of CICC with Dongxing and Xinda, which will result in a combined asset scale exceeding one trillion yuan, ranking fourth in the industry [20]. Insurance Sector - The report discusses the public consultation on new asset-liability management regulations, which aim to strengthen regulatory requirements and optimize long-term stock risk factor requirements [24]. - The insurance sector's valuation is currently between 0.67 and 1.01 times the 2025E P/EV, indicating it is at a historical low, thus maintaining an "Overweight" rating [32]. Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach 32.43 trillion yuan by June 2025, a year-on-year growth of 20.11% [32]. - The futures market experienced a significant increase in trading volume and value, with November 2025 figures showing a year-on-year increase of 13.54% in volume and 7.11% in value [39]. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the sectors as follows: insurance > securities > other multi-financial sectors, recommending companies such as China Life, Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CICC, and Tonghuashun [46].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The current high inventory levels at ports and the early release of downstream heating demand are contributing to a weak demand environment, leading to a downward trend in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a fluctuating trend due to high temperatures across the country and competition from renewable energy sources [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds and suggests a focus on resource stocks, particularly recommending elastic coal stocks such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [2][37] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - During the week of December 15 to December 19, the spot price of thermal coal at ports decreased by 42 CNY/ton, closing at 703 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.6371 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons week-on-week, representing a decline of 10.95% [1] - The average daily outflow from the four ports was 1.5317 million tons, down by 100,000 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 6.19%. The total inventory at the ports increased to 29.652 million tons, up by 500,000 tons, an increase of 1.7% [1][32] Price Trends - As of December 19, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Datong South Suburb decreased by 60 CNY/ton, closing at 560 CNY/ton. The price of 4000 kcal thermal coal in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 430 CNY/ton, while the price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in Yanzhou remained unchanged at 980 CNY/ton [16] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index fell by 4 CNY/ton, closing at 699 CNY/ton, while the Qinhuangdao port price index for 5500 kcal thermal coal decreased by 7 CNY/ton, closing at 702 CNY/ton [19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a decrease in both the inflow and outflow of coal at the Bohai Rim ports, indicating a weak demand environment. The number of anchored vessels in the area decreased by 16% to 63 vessels [27][32] - The report highlights that the current high inventory levels and limited demand release are contributing to the downward pressure on coal prices [1][2] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on elastic coal stocks, particularly Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, which are considered undervalued [2][37]

Core Insights - The report discusses the recent market adjustments driven by global liquidity pressures, concerns over an "AI bubble," and the A-share Q4 settlement season, highlighting a potential market recovery following the easing of these uncertainties [1] - It emphasizes the importance of structural adjustments in the upcoming 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, suggesting a focus on expanding domestic demand while acknowledging the need for a solid economic recovery [1] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the AI sector, particularly in application areas such as AI healthcare, AI edge computing, intelligent driving, and embodied intelligence, as well as in key industries related to the 14th Five-Year Plan, including commercial aerospace, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, quantum communication, and brain-computer interfaces [1][2] AI Sector Opportunities - AI healthcare shows significant potential for deep applications in pathology detection and pharmaceuticals, with a focus on building high-quality datasets and breaking down data barriers [2] - The report notes the recent release of AI medical models and their rising popularity, indicating a strong consumer demand for accessible healthcare services [2] - AI edge computing is being explored by companies like ByteDance, with new AI phone models being introduced, although challenges related to data privacy and competition remain [3] - The report highlights advancements in AI glasses, which are expected to see increased consumer adoption and order releases in the near future [5] Intelligent Driving - The initiation of L3 autonomous driving trials in China is expected to enhance the value of intelligent driving hardware, with companies like Changan and Xiaopeng leading the way [6] - The report mentions the successful commercialization of Robotaxi models, indicating a positive trend in the intelligent driving sector [6] - It also notes the importance of smart traffic infrastructure as part of the broader "Transportation Power" goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] Embodied Intelligence - The humanoid robot sector is poised for significant developments, with key catalysts including IPOs and product launches from companies like Tesla [7] - The report emphasizes the need for practical applications of humanoid robots in industrial settings to validate their market potential [7] Key Industries from the 14th Five-Year Plan - Commercial aerospace is highlighted as a critical area for national strategy, with ongoing developments in satellite internet and 6G technology [8] - The report discusses the increasing focus on nuclear power and controlled nuclear fusion projects, with significant funding and project announcements expected [11] - Hydrogen energy is noted for its growing economic viability due to decreasing production costs and increasing demand for green energy solutions [12] - Quantum communication is positioned as a strategic area for national competition, with ongoing efforts to standardize and commercialize technologies [13] - Brain-computer interfaces are advancing rapidly, with recent breakthroughs in clinical trials and applications in healthcare [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robot company Galaxy General has completed a new round of financing of $300 million, achieving a valuation of $3 billion, making it the highest-valued company in China's humanoid robot sector [2] - The semiconductor equipment sector is seeing consolidation, with companies like Zhongwei planning acquisitions to enhance their product offerings [3] - The liquid cooling industry is experiencing growth, with major players like Vertiv expanding their manufacturing capabilities, indicating strong confidence in the sector's long-term potential [4] - PCB equipment and consumables are set for expansion, with companies like Pengding Holdings planning significant investments to meet the rising demand driven by AI applications [5] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Galaxy General's recent financing round has positioned it as a leader in the humanoid robot market, with significant partnerships in industrial manufacturing and retail sectors [2] Semiconductor Equipment - Zhongwei's acquisition of Hangzhou Zhonggui aims to enhance its CMP equipment offerings, complementing its existing dry process equipment [3] - Other leading companies are also pursuing acquisitions to strengthen their platforms, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the semiconductor equipment market [3] Liquid Cooling - Vertiv's new R&D and manufacturing base in Suzhou reflects the industry's confidence in liquid cooling technology, which is becoming essential for data centers due to increasing power densities [4] - The report highlights the potential for significant market growth, estimating the global server liquid cooling market could reach $80 billion by 2026 [19] PCB Equipment & Consumables - Pengding Holdings is set to invest 4.3 billion yuan in Thailand to expand its production capabilities for AI-related PCB products, with expected order growth in 2026 [5] - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for high-end PCB drilling tools, driven by the rise of AI servers and advanced PCB designs [32]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20251220 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20251215-20251219） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251215-20251219）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 31 只，合计发行规模约 211.10 亿元，较上周减少 156.42 亿元。发行年 限多为 3 年；发行人性质为中央国有企业、央企子公司、地方国有企业、 大型民企、中央国有企业、中外合资企业、地方国有企业、央企子公司； 主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为山东省、上海市、江苏省、 陕西省、北京市、浙江省、福建省、湖北省、广东省、江西省、山西省； 发行债券种类为交易商协会 ABN、企业 ABS、商业银行普通债、一般 公司债、超短期融资券、中期票据、定向工具（PPN）。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251215-20251219）绿色债券周成交额合计 801 亿元，较上周增 加 157 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为金融机构债、非金公司信 用债和利率债，分别为 376 亿元、298 亿元和 94 亿元；分发 ...