[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（9 月 15 日至 9 月 19 日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 24 元/吨， 报收 704 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量148.61万吨，环比上周下降12.74 万吨，降幅 7.90%。本周产地供应较为稳定，港口供应量有所下降。 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 受节前补库影响，港口煤价有所上涨 2025 年 09 月 21 日 增持（维持） 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 153.83 万吨，环比上周下降 4.51 万吨，降幅 2.85%；日均锚地船舶共 65 艘，环比上周下降 6 艘，降幅 7.86%。 库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 2061.00 万吨，环比上周减少 207.70 万吨， 降幅 9.16% 。港口本周整体库存绝对值有所下行，煤价略有上行，主要 由于国庆节前有一定补库需求且供给较弱导致。 我们分析认为：目前伴随煤炭行业逐步进入淡季，全国气温明显下降， 居民用电需求逐步减弱，供强需弱下库存去化短期或面临一定压力，预 计短期煤价维持震荡态势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增量 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The domestic key refining projects' price spread this week is 2516 CNY/ton, down by 19 CNY/ton (1% decrease) compared to the previous week, while the foreign key refining projects' price spread is 1181 CNY/ton, down by 12 CNY/ton (1% decrease) [2]. - In the polyester sector, the average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6704, 6936, and 7982 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -86, -143, and -39 CNY/ton. The weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 79, -33, and 64 CNY/ton respectively [2]. - The operating rate for polyester filament is 91.5%, which is a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [2]. - The downstream weaving machine operating rate is 62.2%, down by 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [2]. - The average price of PX this week is 831.9 USD/ton, down by 3.7 USD/ton, with a price spread compared to crude oil of 338.7 USD/ton, down by 11.6 USD/ton [2]. - The report highlights several listed companies in the refining and polyester sectors, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices for gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene have increased this week [2]. - The average price of Brent crude oil is 67.6 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [9]. 2. Polyester Sector - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6704, 6936, and 7982 CNY/ton respectively, with corresponding week-on-week changes [9]. - The inventory days for POY, FDY, and DTY are 20.6, 28.8, and 31.5 days respectively, with slight increases week-on-week [9]. - The operating rates for PX, PTA, and MEG are 85.3%, 75.5%, and 70.9% respectively [9]. 3. Chemical Sector - The report provides insights into the average prices and profit margins for various chemical products, including PX and PTA [9]. - The average price of PX is 831.9 USD/ton, with a decrease in the price spread compared to crude oil [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the battery industry [1] Core Insights - The battery industry is experiencing accelerated technological breakthroughs, with profitability turning a corner [1] - Solid-state batteries are entering a critical mid-test phase, with significant advancements in the supply chain and technology [3][8] - The demand for energy storage batteries is exceeding expectations, with a notable improvement in profitability [28] Summary by Sections 1. Battery Industry Hotspot Value Analysis - **Solid-State Batteries**: The technology is converging towards sulfide as the main route, with new materials and technologies being rapidly developed. Solid-state batteries significantly enhance safety and energy density, with theoretical values exceeding 500 Wh/kg [8][9] - **Energy Storage Batteries**: Demand is being driven by domestic capacity price compensation and high growth in Europe and emerging markets. Global energy storage battery demand is expected to increase by 60% year-on-year in 2025, with a revised forecast of 500-550 GWh [28][29] 2. Battery ETF (159755): The Largest Battery-Themed ETF - The ETF closely tracks the core leaders in the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, showcasing significant long-term investment value due to the high growth potential of these industries [3][28] - As of September 16, 2025, the ETF's scale reached 10.8 billion yuan, with a daily trading volume significantly higher than the industry average [3][28] 3. Solid-State Battery Development - The industry anticipates that small-scale production of solid-state batteries will begin in 2027, with large-scale production expected to exceed 100 GWh by 2030 [25][27] - Major manufacturers like CATL and BYD are making significant progress, with 60Ah automotive-grade cells already offline, achieving energy densities of 350-400 Wh/kg [19][21] 4. Energy Storage Battery Demand and Supply - The global energy storage market is projected to see a demand of 310 GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 47%. The supply side is expected to maintain a high capacity utilization rate of 86% [35][36] - The price of energy storage batteries is showing signs of recovery, with a bottom-up trend observed in pricing, leading to improved profitability for leading companies [37][38]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250921 转债建议在中低价寻找科技扩散方向 2025 年 09 月 21 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20250915- 20250919）》 2025-09-20 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250915-20250919）》 2025-09-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（0915－0919）海外方面联储降息"靴子落地"，收益率曲线快速 趋陡，可见前期如果执着于长久期的投资人需兼备更好的择时能力来获 得长端的超额收益，长端的高波动具有较强的博弈属性，短端则相对供 需两旺。我们仍延续前期观点，即 1）长端 4－4.5%震荡，前期震荡中 枢下移的持续性需要关注美元信用风险的削弱更多在美债市场去做定 价，还是在美元（即外汇）市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the weekly price and profit data of various chemical products, including polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical sectors, along with the performance of related listed companies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Foundation Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance** - **Stock Price Fluctuations**: From September 19, 2025, the Foundation Chemical Index dropped by 1.3% in the past week, rose by 2.7% in the past month, 17.4% in the past three months, 50.5% in the past year, and 23.4% since the beginning of 2025. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical fell 3.7% in the past week, Baofeng Energy dropped 3.8%, Satellite Chemical declined 4.1%, Huaxin Chemical rose 0.2%, and New Hope Liuhe fell 3.7% [8]. - **Profit Tracking**: As of September 19, 2025, the total market value of Wanhua Chemical was 204.5 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13 billion yuan in 2024, expected to be 13.5 billion yuan in 2025, 16.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 19 billion yuan in 2027. Similar data is provided for other companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,600 yuan/ton, 15,071 yuan/ton, and 13,694 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 179 yuan/ton, + 143 yuan/ton, and + 109 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 4,312 yuan/ton, 2,784 yuan/ton, and 2,558 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 221 yuan/ton, + 101 yuan/ton, and - 157 yuan/ton [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - **Raw Material Prices**: The average weekly prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,348 yuan/ton, 4,273 yuan/ton, 503 yuan/ton, and 4,293 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 46 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton, and 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average price of polyethylene was 7,704 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,093 yuan/ton, 1,844 yuan/ton, and - 143 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 29 yuan/ton, 22 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 6,800 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were - 335 yuan/ton, 1,442 yuan/ton, and - 369 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 5 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,108 yuan/ton, 1,683 yuan/ton, 3,875 yuan/ton, and 2,344 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 24 yuan/ton, - 107 yuan/ton, and + 56 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 152 yuan/ton, - 4 yuan/ton, - 316 yuan/ton, and 80 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 27 yuan/ton, - 16 yuan/ton, - 122 yuan/ton, and + 56 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2. Foundation Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Foundation Chemical Index Trend** No specific content about the index trend is provided, only the topic is mentioned [12]. - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector** The report shows the price trends of pure benzene, pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI, as well as the price and profit data of polymer MDI, TDI, and pure MDI [17][18]. - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector** It presents the price trends of MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic steam coal, and naphtha, along with the profitability of different production processes such as ethane cracking to produce polyethylene, PDH to produce polypropylene, etc. [25][26]. - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Sector** The report shows the price trends and profitability of domestic coking coal, coke, synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, acetic acid, and other products [42][46].

Core Insights - The report suggests that the key market drivers in the fourth quarter may shift towards cyclical sectors and low-positioned technology branches, as historical trends indicate a structural change in market dynamics during this period [1][2][4]. Market Trends - The report highlights that the main risk-reward ratio for leading sectors has decreased, necessitating a shift in investment focus. The concentration of capital in AI upstream hardware has led to a few stocks disproportionately influencing the market [2][3]. - Historical data from 2010 to 2024 shows that sectors with the highest gains in the first three quarters tend to underperform in the fourth quarter, with financial and stable sectors having a higher probability of outperforming the market [2][3]. Institutional Behavior - In the fourth quarter, institutions are likely to prioritize locking in profits from previously successful investments rather than seeking further excess returns. This behavior is driven by the need to mitigate ranking volatility risks, leading to a potential sell-off in previously high-performing sectors [3][4]. Cyclical Sector Opportunities - The report identifies that if optimistic economic expectations materialize, the fourth quarter will present a favorable window for cyclical investments. Historical examples from 2015 to 2022 demonstrate that consumer sectors often yield excess returns during this period [4][5]. Technology Sector Dynamics - Within the technology sector, the report anticipates a "high cut low" strategy, where investments will shift from high-performing upstream hardware to relatively underperforming segments within the AI industry chain [8][11]. - Specific areas of interest include midstream storage and AIDC-related facilities, which are expected to benefit from increasing demand driven by AI applications and capital expenditures from domestic cloud providers [9][10]. Application Sector Potential - The report emphasizes that while downstream AI applications have lagged, their potential for growth remains significant. The emergence of breakthrough products and business models could catalyze a shift in investor sentiment towards these applications [10][11]. - Notable segments to watch include AI in pharmaceuticals, humanoid robots, smart driving, and AI applications, which are positioned for potential growth as market narratives evolve [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report conducts a weekly data tracking of green bonds from September 15 to September 19, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and the valuation deviation of the top 30 individual bonds [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance - **Number and Scale**: 34 new green bonds were issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of about 3.1388 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1336 billion yuan compared to last week [1]. - **Issuance Term**: Most issuance terms are 3 years [1]. - **Issuer Nature**: Issuers include local state - owned enterprises, large - scale private enterprises, and central enterprise subsidiaries [1]. - **Subject Rating**: Most subject ratings are AAA and AA+ [1]. - **Issuer Region**: Issuers are from Beijing, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, Guizhou, Hainan, Hebei, Jiangxi, Shandong, Shanghai, Sichuan, Tianjin, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and Zhejiang [1]. - **Bond Types**: Bond types include general corporate bonds, commercial bank ordinary bonds, enterprise ABS, medium - term notes, private placement corporate bonds, and ultra - short - term financing bills [1]. 3.2 Secondary Market Trading - **Total Turnover**: The weekly turnover of green bonds totaled 6.04 billion yuan, an increase of 0.95 billion yuan compared to last week [2]. - **By Bond Type**: The top three in trading volume are non - financial corporate credit bonds, financial institution bonds, and interest - rate bonds, with trading volumes of 2.64 billion yuan, 2.56 billion yuan, and 0.74 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **By Issuance Term**: Green bonds with a term of less than 3 years had the highest trading volume, accounting for about 83.10%, indicating continuous market popularity [2]. - **By Issuer Industry**: The top three industries in trading volume are finance, public utilities, and transportation equipment, with trading volumes of 2.45 billion yuan, 1.14 billion yuan, and 0.18 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **By Issuer Region**: The top three regions in trading volume are Beijing, Guangdong, and Hubei, with trading volumes of 1.53 billion yuan, 0.74 billion yuan, and 0.44 billion yuan respectively [2]. 3.3 Valuation Deviation of the Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Overall Situation**: The overall deviation of the weekly average trading price valuation of green bonds is not large. The discount trading amplitude is smaller than the premium trading, and the discount trading proportion is less than the premium trading [3]. - **Discount Bonds**: The top three discount bonds are 25 Shui Neng G1 (- 0.7382%), 24 Nan Hu Green Bond 01 (- 0.4538%), and GC San Xia K3 (- 0.3254%). The issuer industries are mainly finance, public utilities, and building materials, and the regions are mainly Beijing, Fujian, and Jiangsu [3]. - **Premium Bonds**: The top four premium bonds are 25 Shui Neng G3 (0.9662%), 24 Kang Fu Lease MTN004 (Carbon - neutral Bond) (0.5175%), 22 Guangdong Bond 07 (0.4758%), and 25 Fuzhou Metro GN003 (Carbon - neutral Bond) (0.4274%). The issuer industries are mainly finance, public utilities, and transportation, and the regions are mainly Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin [3].

二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250915-20250919） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20250915-20250919）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行二级资本 债 2 只，发行规模为 600.00 亿元。发行年限为 10Y、15Y；发行人性质 为中央金融企业；主体评级为 AAA；发行人地域为北京市。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20250915-20250919）二级资本债周成交量合计约 1778 亿元，较 上周增加 163 亿元，成交量前三个券分别为 25 工行二级资本债 02BC （75.09 亿元）、25 工行二级资本债 01BC（66.23 亿元）和 25 建行二 级资本债 01BC（54.16 亿元）。 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20250920 分发行主体地域来看，成交量前三为北京市、上海市和广东省，分别约 为 1315 亿元、153 亿元和 70 亿元。 从到期收益率角度来看，截至 9 月 19 日，5Y 二级资本债中评级 AAA-、 AA+、AA 级到期收益率较上周涨跌幅分别为：-1.51BP、-1.0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's traditional business fundamentals are stable, while its satellite and automotive sectors are expected to create new growth curves [3] - The company has achieved breakthroughs in commercial satellite communication products and is expected to begin mass supply to North American customers in the second half of 2025 [3] - The automotive sector is seeing increased collaboration with major domestic and international manufacturers, with a growing product matrix that includes wireless charging modules and advanced radar systems [3] - The company is projected to benefit from a recovery in the consumer electronics industry and has established a solid business foundation in traditional sectors [10] Financial Projections - Total revenue is forecasted to reach 97.05 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 7.29 billion yuan, and corresponding P/E ratios of 34, 31, and 26 for the years 2025 to 2027 [10] - Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.85% from 2024 to 2025, with net profit growth rates of 26.89% for the same period [10] - The company anticipates significant contributions from its automotive sector over the next 2-3 years, supporting overall growth [3]

Macro Strategy - The September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25bps rate cut, with guidance indicating two more cuts within the year and an additional cut next year, which is more hawkish than market expectations [1][17] - Powell's statements on employment and inflation were consistent with the August Jackson Hole meeting, lacking significant dovish information, leading to volatile movements in major asset classes [1][17] - The focus is shifting towards the independence of the Federal Reserve, with potential political pressures influencing future rate cuts and increasing dollar credit risks [1][17] Fixed Income Market - The convertible bond market experienced fluctuations, with high-priced bonds outperforming mid and low-priced ones, indicating a highly structured opportunity landscape driven by the current equity market [2][19] - The China convertible bond index has risen over 30% since August 2024, with a corresponding increase in the premium rate, suggesting a potential upward shift in the index amid improving corporate performance and increased refinancing needs in the tech sector [2][19] - The issuance of green bonds saw a significant increase, with 23 new bonds issued totaling approximately 20.052 billion yuan, reflecting a growing market interest [4][22] Industry Insights - In the semiconductor equipment sector, domestic equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from the development of domestic computing power chips, with specific companies recommended for investment [12] - The oil service equipment industry is poised to benefit from Saudi Aramco's plans to initiate 85 major projects over three years, with specific companies highlighted for their strong growth potential [13] - Hikvision is positioned as a global leader in the security industry, expanding its digital transformation capabilities through innovative business segments, including industrial IoT and smart logistics [14][15]