Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector has shown a 2.45% increase in the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices by 1.07% and 0.33%, respectively [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand changes and anticipates a recovery in the construction materials market due to government policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The cement market price is currently at 344.0 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.3 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 40.7 CNY/ton [3][18] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 65.0%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [23] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals 2.1 Cement - The cement market is experiencing weak demand, but prices are expected to trend upwards due to companies' efforts to improve profitability [10] - The industry is expected to maintain a better profit level compared to last year, supported by a consensus on supply discipline among leading companies [10] 2.2 Glass - The glass market is currently facing a stalemate with high inventory levels and weak demand, but supply-side adjustments are anticipated to continue [13] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Qibin Group, which may benefit from industry capacity reductions [13] 2.3 Glass Fiber - The report suggests that the profitability of glass fiber products is expected to improve in the medium term, with a focus on high-end products [11] - The industry is seeing a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which may stabilize prices [11] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the government's commitment to boosting domestic demand and consumption, which is expected to positively impact the construction materials sector [14] - The anticipated recovery in the housing market, driven by government policies, is expected to enhance demand for home improvement materials [14] 4. Weekly Market Review - The construction materials sector has shown resilience, with key companies expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and market recovery [5] - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including Conch Cement, China National Building Material, and others [5][15]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250915 每周宏观经济和资产配置研判—20250915 2025 年 09 月 15 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 国内宏观观点： ➢ 8 月内外需求均有所走弱，供给调整滞后于需求，使得短期供给强、需 求弱的格局有所强化。具体来看，内需中投资连续两个月当月同比负增 长，社零增速自 5 月来持续下行，外需在持续超预期后，8 月也开始回 落；与需求端全面走弱不同的是，经济供给虽然也有小幅下行，但整体 仍然维持高位，工业和服务业生产增速都在 5%以上。往后看，当前供 给跟需求的背离会带来三个结果，一是 GDP 增速更靠近供给数据，预 计 Q3 仍在 5%附近，更强的经济数据下，年内宏观政策可能更有定力， 除了即将落地的政策性金融工具外，其他稳增长政策可能节奏偏慢。二 是供给强于需求，导致价格压力加大，可能会影响反内卷政策提升物价 的效果。三是供给和需求的背离不可持续，从以往经验来看，如果需求 不能走强，那么供给会跟随需求下行，四季度 GDP 的压力会大于三季 度。 ◼ 海外宏观观点： ➢ 8 月公布的 CPI 环比虽略超预期，但结构细节显示关税带来的通胀 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 （信息来源：WIND 陆家嘴财经早餐、搜狐、OpenAI、证券时报等） 周度观点 ◼ AI 维持高热度，AI+"看涨期权"或逐步兑现。 （1）本周全球 AI 产业继续保持高热度，甲骨文与 OpenAI 签署的 3000 亿美元云计算合同，成为行业焦点。该合同意味着 AI 行业正式进入"超 级工程"阶段，这不仅是一份商业合作，更是产业格局与战略思路的转折 点。其一，在技术层面，百万级 GPU 的规划意味着算力基础设施已成为 AGI 发展的必备条件，未来推理需求甚至将长期超过训练需求，多云架构 也正在取代单一云平台，成为主流趋势。其二，在战略层面，软银等资本 方的深度参与，显示资本正以"超级订单"方式加速推动 AI 产业，算力 正成为国家级战略资源，与能源、电力同等重要。 （2）应用方面，海内外巨头不断推陈出新。华为持续推进盘古大模型在政 企、医疗、能源等行业的场景化应用，强化"端 + 云 + 芯"的全栈布局； 苹果则在新品发布会中进一步强调 AI 在 iOS 生态中的融合，尤其是 AI 辅助交互和端侧智能的应用，显示出大厂在"AI 赋能消费级生态"的长期 投入决心。在生活服务领 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector, specifically recommending South Network Energy and South Network Storage for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have issued a notice to improve the pricing mechanism for promoting the nearby consumption of renewable energy, recommending commercial rooftop photovoltaics from South Network Energy and paying attention to Anke Rui [4]. - The large-scale energy storage tender in August exceeded expectations, with South Network Storage being recommended as a storage operator. The economic viability of large-scale storage is expected to improve steadily, driven by AI and the implementation of Document No. 136 [4]. - The report highlights significant growth in electricity consumption and generation, with total electricity consumption from January to July 2025 reaching 5.86 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [13]. - The report tracks key industry data, including electricity prices, coal prices, and water conditions, indicating a stable environment for utility investments [4][40][45]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The utility sector index increased by 0.80% from September 8 to September 12, 2025, underperforming compared to the ChiNext index [9]. - The report notes that the total electricity consumption for the first seven months of 2025 was 5.86 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [13]. Electricity Consumption - The first industry saw a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, the second industry 2.8%, the third industry 7.8%, and urban and rural residential electricity consumption 4.1% [13]. Electricity Generation - Total electricity generation from January to July 2025 was 5.47 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Notably, coal and hydropower generation saw declines of 1.3% and 4.5%, respectively [21]. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price from the grid in August 2025 was 388 RMB/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2% but a month-on-month increase of 1.3% [40]. Coal Prices - As of September 12, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 680 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.65% [45]. Water Conditions - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 162.88 meters as of September 12, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates showing significant year-on-year increases of 33.59% and 198.15%, respectively [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on listed companies within the South Network system, including South Network Energy, South Network Storage, and South Network Technology, highlighting opportunities in green electricity, photovoltaic assets, and charging station asset value reassessment [4].

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250915 降息前的普涨——港股&海外周观察 2025 年 09 月 15 日 首先，关税对美国通胀传导程度仍旧可控。美国 8 月 PPI 同比增长 2.6%， 为 6 月以来新低，远低于预期的 3.3%，前值从 3.3%下修为 3.1%；同时， 美国 8 月 CPI 也基本符合预期，CPI 同比 2.9%，持平预期，较前值 2.7% 小幅回升。美国 8 月 CPI 环比 0.4%，略高于预期的 0.3%，前值 0.2%。 PPI 下降为 9 月美联储提供了支持降息的依据，CPI 的温和表现则是巩 固了降息 25bps 降息的幅度。 其次，甲骨文财报超预期，给美股科技注入"强心剂"。甲骨文财报受 到 AI 驱动合同量大幅增长，第一季度创纪录 3320 亿美元订单金额，不 仅刷新软件行业历史最高签约记录，同时标志着其商业模式的根本性转 型。与此同时，甲骨文又宣布与 OpenAI 达成 3000 亿美元新合约，积极 AI 消息的频度和强度持续提升，不断推高科技狂热潮。 短期来看，我们认为美股以继续震荡上行为主。美国就业高频数据（初 请失业金人数上升）+基本符合预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. gas prices have decreased due to sufficient inventory, while European and Chinese gas prices remain stable [4][9] - It emphasizes the gradual progress of price alignment in the domestic market, which is expected to enhance profitability and valuation recovery for city gas companies [36] Price Tracking - As of September 12, 2025, U.S. HH gas prices decreased by 4.8%, while European TTF prices increased by 2.6%. The prices for East Asia JKM, Chinese LNG ex-factory, and Chinese LNG landed prices changed by +0.5%, -0.6%, and -1.4% respectively [4][9][10] - The average total supply of natural gas in the U.S. decreased by 0.1% week-on-week to 1,123 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand decreased by 0.4% to 995 billion cubic feet per day [14] Supply and Demand Analysis - U.S. natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors increased by 16.5% week-on-week, while industrial consumption rose by 0.8% [14] - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to May 2025 was 2,180 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [16] - China's apparent natural gas consumption from January to July 2025 was 2,461 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [21] Price Adjustment Progress - Nationwide, 65% of cities have implemented residential price adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [36] - The report indicates that there is still a 10% room for price gap recovery in the city gas sector [36] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with cost optimization and supply flexibility, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [4][36] - It suggests paying attention to companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [4][36] Important Announcements - The U.S. gas import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, improving the economic feasibility of U.S. gas imports [42] - The European Parliament has agreed to provide greater flexibility regarding natural gas storage targets, allowing for a deviation of 10 percentage points from the 90% storage target [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a weekly increase of 3.76%, ranking it among the top sectors [15]. - Precious metals are expected to benefit from the ongoing inflation trend and a weakening labor market, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts continuing [4][46]. - The market is beginning to price in the liquidity easing from the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a slight improvement in downstream demand as the peak season approaches [1][2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.24 percentage points, with significant gains across all sub-sectors [15]. - Precious metals saw a 5.13% increase, energy metals rose by 1.35%, industrial metals increased by 4.10%, small metals by 4.39%, and new materials by 2.45% [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of September 12, LME copper closed at $10,068 per ton, up 1.72% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥81,060 per ton, up 1.15% [2]. Supply tightness is expected due to large-scale maintenance in domestic smelting plants [2][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,701 per ton, up 3.78%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥21,120 per ton, up 2.05% [3]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry remains stable at 44.085 million tons [38]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,956 per ton, up 3.45%, while SHFE zinc was at ¥22,305 per ton, up 0.68% [40]. Inventory levels showed mixed trends, with LME stocks decreasing and SHFE stocks increasing [40]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $34,955 per ton, up 2.07%, and SHFE tin at ¥273,950 per ton, up 0.55% [43]. Supply recovery from Myanmar is slower than expected [43]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,680.70 per ounce, up 1.12%, and SHFE gold at ¥834.22 per gram, up 2.28% [4][46]. The inflation trend continues to rise while labor market data shows weakness, supporting the outlook for gold [4][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, suggesting an increase in allocation towards automotive dividend style configurations in the second half of 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is at a crossroads, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) dividend phase and the dawn of automotive intelligence. The report suggests that structural opportunities may arise similar to previous transitions in 2011 and 2018 [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption expansion and quality improvement in the automotive sector, as outlined in the "Automotive Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" issued by eight government departments [51]. - The report forecasts a total vehicle sales target of approximately 32.3 million units for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of about 3%, and expects new energy vehicle sales to reach around 15.5 million units, growing by approximately 20% [51][52]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - In the first week of September, the total number of compulsory insurance for passenger vehicles was 360,000 units, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 30.0% [50]. - The report highlights the performance of various segments, with commercial trucks showing the best performance at +4.2%, while passenger vehicles declined by -1.8% [3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector ranked 15th in A-shares and 21st in Hong Kong stocks for the week, indicating a relatively average performance compared to other sectors [8][10]. - The report notes that the overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the automotive sector has decreased, with specific segments like passenger vehicles trading at 0.94 times the P/E of parts [36][43]. Industry Trends - The report identifies key changes in the industry, including new model announcements and strategic partnerships aimed at accelerating the commercialization of autonomous vehicles [3]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in the penetration of L3 and L2+ intelligent driving technologies by 2025, driven by major players like Tesla and Huawei [55][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on dividend and quality configurations in segments such as buses, heavy trucks, and two-wheelers, as well as selecting stocks in the AI and robotics sectors [4]. - Specific stocks highlighted for potential investment include Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and various parts manufacturers [4].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent cooling of U.S. employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][14][18] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August showed an increase of only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a weakening labor market [1][18] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, highlighting a trend of weakening labor demand [1][18] Fixed Income - In the week of September 1-5, 19 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 8.767 billion yuan, an increase of 1.651 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 48.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 billion yuan from the previous week [2] Industry Analysis - The domestic aluminum electrolytic capacitor industry is experiencing stable growth, with a focus on supercapacitors expected to drive a second growth curve for Jianghai Co., Ltd. [10] - Jianghai Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leader in the supercapacitor market, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.9% in the domestic market from 2017 to 2023 [10] - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the supercapacitor business, particularly in AI computing applications, as the company collaborates with multiple AI clients [10] Company Recommendations - Yapu Co., Ltd. is expected to see revenue growth from 9.123 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.961 billion yuan in 2027, with a corresponding net profit increase from 575 million yuan to 756 million yuan [9] - Jianghai Co., Ltd. is projected to achieve revenues of 4.565 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 5.770 billion yuan by 2027, with net profits expected to rise from 791 million yuan to 1.025 billion yuan [13] - China Pacific Insurance is maintaining a positive outlook with projected net profits of 51.6 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 55.3 billion yuan by 2027 [12]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑装饰 建筑装饰行业跟踪周报 继续推荐景气赛道的洁净室工程板块 2025 年 09 月 14 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 周观点： （1）财政部介绍截至 2025 年 6 月末超六成的融资平台实现退出，下一 步继续落实好一揽子化债举措，提前下达部分 2026 年新增地方政府债 务限额，靠前使用化债额度，多措并举化解存量隐性债务，结合今年政 府债融资前置的情况来看，提前下达的额度有望对政府债务融资形成部 分支撑。从上半年建筑板块中报情况来看，收入和利润仍然承压，现金 流有所改善，基建和地产投资弱势下使得板块整体承压，部分专业工程 领域表现相对较好；短期跟踪数据来看，行业景气依然相对弱势，8 月 建筑业 PMI 下降至收缩区间，建筑业施工有所放缓，新订单指数仍然低 迷，基建投资端增速有所放缓，稳增长政策仍有加力的潜在空间，继续 关注财政政策的加力节奏、以及城市更新推动和重点工程项目对区域需 求拉动；我们建议关注估值仍处历史低位、业绩稳健的基建龙头央企和 地方国企估值持续修复机会，推荐中国交建、中国电建、中国中铁，建 议关注中 ...