Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) as the only viable solution for aviation decarbonization, highlighting the scarcity and value enhancement of waste oil resources during the SAF expansion cycle [14][15] - The environmental protection sector is expected to experience significant growth driven by policy support and market dynamics, particularly in solid waste management and new pollution control technologies [12][20] Industry Trends - The 2026 ecological and environmental work conference set the tone for the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on source governance and modern monitoring to drive industry upgrades [10][11] - The SAF market is projected to see a substantial increase in demand, with the EU mandating a gradual increase in SAF blending ratios from 2% in 2025 to 70% by 2050, leading to a forecasted demand of 3,662 million tons by 2050 [15][16] - The report notes that the domestic supply of waste oil is limited, with only about 400 million tons being utilized annually out of a theoretical production of 1,200 million tons, indicating a long-term supply-demand imbalance [16][18] Company Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include: - **Huanlan Environment**: Benefiting from overseas expansion and high nickel prices [4] - **Longjing Environmental Protection**: Focused on green electricity storage and mining equipment [22] - **Green Power**: Positioned for growth in the renewable energy sector [20] - **Sains**: Engaged in heavy metal pollution control and new business in resource recovery [4] - Companies to watch include **Dayu Water** and **Lian Tai Environmental Protection**, which are expected to benefit from market reforms and cash flow improvements [4][21] Market Performance - The report indicates that the environmental protection sector is expected to outperform the broader market, with significant growth in the sales of new energy sanitation vehicles projected to increase by 70.9% in 2025 [26][32] - The report highlights the increasing penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles, which is expected to reach 21.11% in 2025, up from previous years [26][30] Investment Strategy - The report outlines a three-pronged investment strategy focusing on: 1. **Value and Growth Resonance**: Emphasizing the importance of market-driven improvements and operational efficiency [20] 2. **Quality Growth**: Targeting companies with strong growth potential in the second curve and downstream sectors [22] 3. **Carbon Neutrality Drive**: Highlighting the importance of clean energy and recycling in achieving carbon reduction goals [24]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Qianli Technology (601777) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a significant transformation from traditional manufacturing to smart mobility, with a focus on AI-driven technologies and strategic partnerships [12][15]. - Financial performance is gradually improving, with revenue expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by the automotive and AI sectors [6][27]. - The strategic partnership with Geely and the establishment of Qianli Smart Driving are key to enhancing the company's competitive edge in the smart driving market [70][75]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Transformation and Financial Analysis - Qianli Technology has shifted from a motorcycle-focused business to a smart mobility company, with a new name and strategic direction since 2025 [12][95]. - The company has shown signs of financial recovery, with revenue expected to reach 70.35 billion yuan in 2024, a 3.94% increase year-on-year [1][27]. - The automotive business is projected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a forecast of 42.17 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 12.9% increase [6][27]. 2. Strategic Partnerships and Ecosystem Development - The company has formed a stable three-way equity structure involving Geely, local government, and AI technology partners, enhancing its strategic capabilities [19][75]. - Qianli Technology aims to build an "AI Smart Mobility Open Platform" through partnerships with Geely and other industry players, focusing on smart driving solutions [70][75]. 3. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 89 billion yuan, 106 billion yuan, and 128 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PS valuations of 5.86, 4.89, and 4.06 times [1][6]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 89.39 million yuan in 2025, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years [1][27]. 4. Technology and Product Development - Qianli Technology is advancing its smart driving technology, with plans to launch L3 level solutions and Robotaxi technology by 2026 [80][89]. - The company is focusing on developing next-generation intelligent cockpit systems and enhancing its AI capabilities through strategic investments and partnerships [70][80].

Economic Growth - Q4 GDP growth was 4.5%, achieving the annual target of 5%[1] - December industrial added value increased by 5.2% YoY, surpassing the previous value of 4.8%[1] - Exports grew by 6.6% YoY in December, exceeding the consensus forecast of 2.2%[1] Demand and Consumption - Retail sales growth in December was only 0.9%, lower than the previous 1.3% and below the expected 1.5%[1] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% YoY, worse than the expected decline of 2.4%[1] - Service retail grew by 5.5%, indicating a shift towards service consumption[2] Industrial Production - December industrial production showed resilience, with manufacturing growth at 5.7%[2] - High-tech manufacturing increased by 11%, more than double the overall industrial growth rate[2] - Industrial production faced challenges with a production-sales rate of 96.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous year[2] Investment Trends - Real estate investment fell by 17.2% in 2025, while manufacturing investment rose by 0.6%[2] - Equipment renewal investment grew by 11.8%, supported by government policies[2] - The shift from new to second-hand housing sales indicates a change in market dynamics[2] Future Outlook - Despite pressures on domestic demand, 2026 may see a strong start due to supportive policies like "old-for-new" initiatives[2] - Key risks include a weakening real estate market and potential underperformance of export growth[2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a significant transformation from traditional manufacturing to smart mobility, with a focus on AI-driven technologies and strategic partnerships [12][15]. - Financial indicators are gradually improving, with a forecasted revenue increase and a positive cash flow outlook, indicating a recovery from previous financial difficulties [6][27]. - The strategic partnership with Geely and the introduction of new technologies are expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the smart driving sector [70][80]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Transformation and Financial Analysis - The company has shifted from a motorcycle-centric business to a focus on smart vehicles, with significant investments in AI technology and strategic partnerships [12][15]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 7.04 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.64 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.8% [1]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly, from 40 million yuan in 2024 to 160 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [1]. 2. Business Segments Performance - The motorcycle business remains stable, with a focus on high-displacement models and a gradual recovery in revenue and profitability [43][44]. - The automotive segment, particularly through the joint venture with Geely, is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a projected 59.96% share of total revenue by 2024 [53][54]. - The technology segment is expanding, with a focus on AI-driven solutions and smart driving technologies, aiming to establish a comprehensive ecosystem [70][80]. 3. Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - The company has formed a robust partnership with Geely and other tech firms, enhancing its capabilities in AI and smart driving [70][80]. - The introduction of the "千里浩瀚" smart driving solution is expected to position the company as a key player in the autonomous driving market [89]. - The company plans to leverage its partnerships to enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach, particularly in the smart mobility sector [70][80].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) as the only viable solution for aviation decarbonization, highlighting the scarcity and value of waste oil resources during the SAF expansion cycle [14][15] - The environmental protection sector is expected to experience significant growth driven by policy support and market dynamics, particularly in waste management and renewable energy [20][21] Industry Trends - The 2026 ecological and environmental work conference set the tone for the industry's upgrade, focusing on source governance and modern monitoring systems [10][11] - The SAF market is projected to see a substantial increase in demand, with the EU mandating a gradual increase in SAF blending ratios from 2% in 2025 to 70% by 2050 [15][16] - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a projected growth rate of 70.9% in 2025 [26] Company Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include: - Hanlan Environment - Longjing Environmental Protection - Green Power - Everbright Environment - Weiming Environmental Protection - Yuhua Investment - Jinfeng Energy [4] - Companies to watch include: - Dayu Water Saving - Lian Tai Environmental Protection - Wangneng Environment [4] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing value of waste oil resources, driven by the rising demand for SAF and the expansion of production capacity [18] - The report indicates that the price of SAF is expected to rise significantly due to supply constraints, with potential profitability for SAF producers [15][18] Strategic Focus - The report outlines three main strategic focuses for 2026: 1. Value and growth resonance driven by marketization and efficiency improvements in waste management [20] 2. Quality growth through second curve development and AI empowerment in sanitation [22] 3. Carbon neutrality initiatives, emphasizing the importance of renewable resources and waste resource utilization [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the basic information of Shangtai Convertible Bond, including its issuance scale, bond - bottom valuation, conversion parity, and terms. It also conducts a fundamental analysis of the underlying stock, Shangtai Technology, highlighting its business transformation, revenue growth, and financial performance [3][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Convertible Bond Basic Information - Shangtai Convertible Bond (127112.SZ) was available for online subscription on January 16, 2026, with a total issuance scale of 1.734 billion yuan. The net proceeds after deducting issuance fees will be used for a project with an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons of lithium - battery anode materials [3]. - The current bond - bottom valuation is 97.64 yuan, and the YTM is 1.86%. The bond has a 6 - year term, an AA +/AA+ credit rating, a face value of 100 yuan, and specific coupon rates from the first to the sixth year [3]. - The current conversion parity is 102.64 yuan, and the parity premium rate is - 2.58%. The conversion period is from July 22, 2026, to January 15, 2032, with an initial conversion price of 84.71 yuan per share [3]. - The convertible bond terms are standard. The total equity dilution rate is 7.28%, and the dilution rate for the tradable shares is 9.91%, indicating relatively low dilution pressure on the equity [3]. - The issuance price of Shangtai Convertible Bond is 100 yuan per bond. The original shareholders' priority subscription ratio is 71.71%, and the online winning rate is 0.0051678926% [3][15]. 3.2. Investment Subscription Suggestion - Shangtai Convertible Bond was issued at 100 yuan per bond on January 16, 2026. The original shareholders' priority subscription ratio was 71.71%, and the online public subscription accounted for 28.29% of the total issuance, with a winning rate of 0.0051678926% [3][15]. 3.3. Underlying Stock Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1. Financial Data Analysis - Shangtai Technology is a high - tech enterprise in the lithium - ion battery anode material industry. Since 2017, it has transformed from a graphite - processing service provider to an integrated R & D, production, and sales enterprise [16]. - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue had a compound growth rate of 66.41%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company had a compound growth rate of 53.11%. In 2024, the revenue was 5.229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.10%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 838 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.97% [3][17]. - The company's revenue mainly comes from the anode material business. From 2022 to 2024, the proportion of anode material sales revenue in the main business revenue was 90.51%, 89.61%, and 93.42% respectively, with an annual adjustment in product structure [22]. - From 2020 to 2024, the company's net sales margin and gross profit margin remained stable, the sales expense ratio decreased, the financial expense ratio increased, and the management expense ratio decreased [4]. 3.3.2. Company Highlights - Shangtai Technology is a leading enterprise in the lithium - ion battery anode material industry, with three production bases. It has a full - process, integrated production capacity and a high - quality customer system [31]. - The company has built a product matrix suitable for multiple application scenarios and fields, and its revenue compound growth rate in the past three years is better than the average level of comparable listed companies in the industry [31].

Market Overview - Developed and emerging markets continued to rise, with emerging markets leading at 2.2% and developed markets up 0.1% [1] - In the U.S. stock market, small-cap stocks represented by the Russell 2000 led gains with a 2.2% increase, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.7%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.4%, and the Dow Jones dropped by 0.3% [1] - The S&P 500 constituents saw a 55% increase in stock prices, with notable gains from companies like Moderna, AMD, and Jabil [1] Inflation and Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation showed signs of cooling, with December CPI meeting market expectations; core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, and 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% [1] - The housing inflation pressure is significantly easing, with December housing inflation rising by 0.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase dropping from 3.3% to 3.2% [1] - The PPI for November rose to 3% year-on-year, driven by energy costs, indicating a rebound in wholesale inflation pressure, although core PPI remained stable [2] Corporate Earnings and Financial Sector - The earnings season for U.S. banks began cautiously, with JPMorgan Chase and BNY Mellon reporting results that met high market expectations, but investment banking revenues fell short [3] - JPMorgan's bond underwriting fees decreased by 2% year-on-year, significantly below the expected growth of 19% [3] - The financial sector faced pressure due to Trump's comments on credit card interest rates, leading to capital outflows from the sector [3] Future Outlook - Short-term outlook for U.S. stocks remains positive, but with potential volatility; significant companies representing 6% of S&P market capitalization will report earnings next week, particularly in healthcare, consumer staples, and industrials [4] - The focus is shifting to the Federal Reserve's leadership amid pressures on Chairman Powell, with expectations that he will not be removed from his position [4] - Upcoming GDP growth data for Q4 2025 is anticipated, with suggestions to avoid cyclical stocks in favor of defensive sectors like healthcare [4] Key Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases include U.S. Q4 GDP on January 20, core PCE price index on January 22, and various manufacturing PMIs on January 23 [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for IFBH, marking its first coverage of the company [1]. Core Insights - IFBH is a leader in the coconut water sector, demonstrating strong profitability and a commitment to a light-asset model that leverages Thai industry resources [8][14]. - The coconut water market in China is rapidly expanding, with a projected growth from USD 1.02 billion in 2019 to USD 10.93 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 60.8% [8][70]. - The company is actively enhancing its distribution partnerships and product offerings to drive growth, with a focus on both online and offline channels [8][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - IFBH was founded in 2013 and has rapidly grown since entering the Chinese market in 2017, becoming a leading player in the coconut water industry [8][14]. - The company operates under a light-asset model, which allows it to maintain high asset turnover and profitability [8][42]. 2. Market Dynamics - The coconut water industry is characterized by its health benefits and growing consumer demand, with significant room for market penetration compared to the U.S. [8][51]. - The market is expected to continue expanding, with a forecasted CAGR of 19.4% from 2024 to 2029 [70]. 3. Growth Strategy - IFBH is focusing on product innovation and expanding its distribution network, including partnerships with major retailers like COFCO and Watsons [8][51]. - The company plans to enhance its market presence through both its flagship brand "if" and the new "Innococo" brand, targeting functional beverage segments [8][29]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for IFBH indicate growth from USD 187.55 million in 2025 to USD 331.16 million by 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from USD 30.50 million to USD 54.79 million [1]. - The report anticipates a decrease in P/E ratios from 19.29x in 2025 to 10.74x in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for IFBH, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - IFBH is a leader in the coconut water sector, demonstrating strong profitability and a commitment to a light-asset model that leverages Thai industry resources [8][14]. - The coconut water market in China is rapidly expanding, with a projected growth from USD 1.02 billion in 2019 to USD 10.93 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 60.8% [8][70]. - The company is actively enhancing its distribution partnerships and product offerings to drive growth, focusing on both innovation and channel expansion [8][51]. Summary by Sections 1. IFBH: Leader in Coconut Water with Strong Profitability - IFBH was founded in 2013 and has rapidly grown in the Chinese market since entering in 2017, supported by a concentrated ownership structure and an efficient management team [8][14]. - The company has adopted a light-asset model, which allows it to maintain high asset turnover and return on equity (ROE) levels [8][42]. - The dual-brand strategy, with flagship brand "if" and sub-brand "Innococo," has contributed to a diversified product matrix, primarily focusing on coconut water [26][29]. 2. Coconut Water: Continuous Expansion and Uncertain Market Structure - The coconut water category is characterized by its natural health benefits and is experiencing significant growth, with the market expected to reach USD 26.52 billion by 2029 [8][70]. - The penetration rate of coconut water in China is still low compared to the U.S., indicating substantial room for growth [8][51]. - The competitive landscape remains fluid, with opportunities for leading brands to educate the market and enhance product innovation [8][51]. 3. Strengthening Distribution Partnerships and Product Development - IFBH is focusing on expanding its distribution network, having signed partnerships with major players like COFCO and Watsons to enhance offline presence [8][51]. - The company is also innovating its product line, including the introduction of electrolyte water under the Innococo brand, to capture growth in the sports drink segment [8][51]. - The light-asset model allows IFBH to mitigate risks associated with raw material price fluctuations while maintaining operational efficiency [8][26]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The report forecasts IFBH's revenue to reach USD 1.88 billion in 2025, USD 2.57 billion in 2026, and USD 3.31 billion in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 19.0%, 36.9%, and 29.0% [8][1]. - The projected net profit for the same years is USD 0.31 billion, USD 0.42 billion, and USD 0.55 billion, with growth rates of -8.4%, 39.1%, and 29.1% respectively [8][1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Insights - The construction materials sector has shown a slight decline in social financing growth, prompting a focus on high-dividend stocks and sectors such as real estate and technology [3] - The cement market is experiencing price fluctuations, with a current average price of 347.7 yuan/ton, down 4.8 yuan from last week and down 56.2 yuan from the same period in 2025 [10][11] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies benefiting from high dividends, export-oriented industries, and home renovation sectors [3] Summary by Sections 1. Cement Market Overview - The national average cement price is 347.7 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 4.8 yuan from the previous week and a decrease of 56.2 yuan year-on-year [10][11] - The average cement inventory ratio is 58.9%, down 1.4 percentage points from last week but up 1.4 percentage points from the same period in 2025 [16][20] - The average daily cement shipment rate is 39.2%, down 5.0 percentage points from last week but up 7.0 percentage points year-on-year [16][20] 2. Glass Market Overview - The average price of float glass is 1138.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.3 yuan from last week but a decrease of 246.1 yuan from 2025 [41][42] - The inventory of float glass in 13 provinces is 4,986 million weight boxes, a decrease of 209 million from last week but an increase of 1,071 million from the same period in 2025 [46][49] 3. Fiberglass Market Overview - The effective production capacity for fiberglass is projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [4] - The demand for fiberglass is expected to maintain steady growth, driven by wind power and new applications, despite a potential slowdown in overall growth [4] 4. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include China National Building Material, Huaxin Cement, and others that are expected to benefit from industry recovery and structural improvements [4][3] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and those involved in technology and home renovation sectors [3]