证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250713 相关研究 《 绿 色 债 券 周 度 数 据 跟 踪 （20250707-20250711）》 2025-07-12 建议提高转债欠配资金配置比例 2025 年 07 月 13 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250707-20250711）》 2025-07-12 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（0707－0711）海外整体延续前周方向，美债跌美股平，美债短端 上行幅度弱于长端，我们考虑一方面市场担忧特朗普政府关税政策终将 对物价带来实质性的影响，另一方面稳定币多以短期美债（或现金）作 为储备，这将有力支撑美债短端的下限。我们认为，目前全球面临"再 全球化"过程中区域供需不平衡的严峻挑战，所引发的区域性通缩（供 过于求）、通胀（供 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a forecasted growth of 98% to 119% year-on-year, driven by the fulfillment of existing orders [3] - The merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is progressing, which is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [4] - The long-term outlook for the shipbuilding industry remains positive, supported by ongoing demand for new vessels and environmental upgrades [4] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 748.39 billion RMB in 2023 to 1,141.67 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.57% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 295.7 billion RMB in 2023 to 124.14 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a substantial increase in profitability [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.66 RMB in 2023 to 2.78 RMB in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [1] Performance Highlights - As of May 2025, the company holds 322 vessels in its order book, equating to 24.61 million deadweight tons, with production capacity scheduled until 2029 [3] - The company’s performance is expected to exceed market expectations due to the release of previously suppressed demand and the synergistic effects of the merger [3][4] Market Position and Industry Outlook - The company is projected to capture approximately 15% of the global order book and over 14% of global shipbuilding completion volume post-merger [4] - The shipbuilding industry is expected to continue its upward cycle, supported by stringent environmental regulations and the aging of existing vessels [4]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 东鹏饮料（605499） 2025H1 业绩预增公告点评：收入符合预期， 成长底色依旧 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,263 | 15,839 | 20,856 | 26,004 | 30,820 | | 同比（%） | 32.42 | 40.63 | 31.67 | 24.69 | 18.52 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,040 | 3,327 | 4,654 | 6,018 | 7,347 | | 同比（%） | 41.60 | 63.09 | 39.90 | 29.31 | 22.08 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.92 | 6.40 | 8.95 | 11.57 | 14.13 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 73.89 | 45.31 | 32.39 | 25.05 | 20.52 | [Table_Tag] [ ...

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：长丝价格承压，产销上升 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月13日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2529元/吨，环比-106元/吨（环比-4%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1070元/吨，环比-58元/吨（环比-5%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6779/6986/8075元/吨，环比分别-211/-264/-193元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为26/-102/24元/吨，环比分别-37/-73/-26元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 24.2/24.7/29.4天，环比分别+2.5/+2.3/+0.8天，长丝开工率为91.9%，环比+0.7pct。下游方面，本周织机开工 率为56.2%，环比-1.9pct，织造企业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance recently, with all sub-sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index in the last five trading days [9] - The report highlights the significant increase in trading volume in the securities sector, with a year-on-year increase of 120% in daily average stock trading volume as of July 11, 2025 [15] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from long-term capital advantages due to new assessment criteria for state-owned insurance companies [23] - The multi-financial sector is entering a stable transition period, with trust assets continuing to grow but profits declining significantly [31] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - In the last five trading days (July 7-11, 2025), the multi-financial sector rose by 11.89%, the securities sector by 4.58%, and the insurance sector by 1.72%, while the overall non-bank financial sector increased by 3.94% compared to a 0.82% rise in the CSI 300 index [9][11] 2. Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Insights 2.1 Securities - Trading volume has significantly increased, with a daily average stock trading amount of CNY 16,688 billion, up 120% year-on-year as of July 11, 2025 [15] - The China Securities Association has implemented measures to strengthen self-regulation and promote high-quality development in the securities industry [19] 2.2 Insurance - New long-term assessment criteria for state-owned insurance companies have been introduced, focusing on net asset return and capital preservation over a five-year period [23] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.62-0.95 times the 2025E P/EV, which is considered historically low, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [28] 2.3 Multi-Financial - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach CNY 29.56 trillion in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 23.58%, but profits dropped significantly by 45.5% [31] - The futures market experienced a trading volume of 740 million contracts in June 2025, with a transaction value of CNY 52.79 trillion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 28.91% and 17.40%, respectively [34] 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the insurance sector highest, followed by securities and other multi-financial sectors, recommending companies such as China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, and Tonghuashun [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the weekly data of the basic chemical industry, showing that the demand is weak and the MDI price is running weakly. It details the price and profit changes of various chemical products in different sectors such as polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical industries, and also tracks the stock price, market value, and profit of related listed companies [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking** - **Stock Price Fluctuations**: From July 11, 2025, the basic chemical index rose 1.5% in the past week, 2.5% in the past month, 11.1% in the past three months, 20.9% in the past year, and 8.9% since the beginning of 2025. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical rose 3.0% in the past week, Baofeng Energy fell 2.6%, Satellite Chemical fell 1.8%, and Hualu Hengsheng fell 1.5% [8]. - **Profit Tracking**: As of July 11, 2025, Wanhua Chemical had a total market value of 174.9 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13.033 billion yuan in 2024A, 13.966 billion yuan in 2025E, 16.864 billion yuan in 2026E, and 19.233 billion yuan in 2027E. Similar data is provided for Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 16,640 yuan/ton, 14,800 yuan/ton, and 12,120 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 300 yuan/ton, - 420 yuan/ton, and + 120 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 3,565 yuan/ton, 2,765 yuan/ton, and 1,110 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 153 yuan/ton, - 295 yuan/ton, and + 213 yuan/ton [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - **Raw Material Prices**: The average prices of ethane, propane,动力煤, and naphtha this week were 1,254 yuan/ton, 4,135 yuan/ton, 483 yuan/ton, and 4,211 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 56 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and 102 yuan/ton [2]. - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average price of polyethylene was 7,931 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,304 yuan/ton, 2,046 yuan/ton, and 68 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 62 yuan/ton, 44 yuan/ton, and 119 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 7,064 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton week - on - week. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were - 45 yuan/ton, 1,670 yuan/ton, and - 127 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 101 yuan/ton, 71 yuan/ton, and 145 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2,228 yuan/ton, 1,808 yuan/ton, 4,255 yuan/ton, and 2,301 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 13 yuan/ton, + 11 yuan/ton, + 235 yuan/ton, and - 49 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 343 yuan/ton, 148 yuan/ton, 141 yuan/ton, and 12 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 9 yuan/ton, + 3 yuan/ton, + 327 yuan/ton, and + 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **Basic Chemical Index Trend**: No specific content provided other than the mention of the index and related data in the data briefing section [12]. - **Polyurethane Sector**: Analyzes the price trends of pure benzene, pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI, as well as the price and profit of polymer MDI, TDI, and pure MDI [17][18]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector**: Covers the price trends of MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic动力煤, and naphtha, and the profit of different production processes such as ethane cracking, naphtha cracking, MTO, and CTO for producing PE and PP [24][30]. - **Coal - Chemical Sector**: Analyzes the price trends and profits of coal - coking products, traditional coal - chemical products, and new materials such as coking coal, coke, synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, acetic acid, DMC, oxalic acid, octanol, adipic acid, caprolactam, and PA6 [10][42].

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market reached approximately 1.50 trillion CNY, a slight increase of nearly 55 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a weekly increase of 1.09%[12] Market Style Performance - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with small-cap value index rising by 2.71% and small-cap growth index increasing by 2.31%[12] - The relative advantage of growth stocks over value stocks remained in positive territory, indicating a favorable trend for growth investments[17] Participant Performance - The market sentiment index rose by 3.56%, indicating strong performance from active funds[20] - The private equity heavy index showed a weekly increase of 1.89%, outperforming other indices[20] Market Sentiment - The total margin trading balance increased to over 1.87 trillion CNY, reflecting a stable market sentiment[28] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 78, while those hitting the limit down was 7, indicating a generally positive market atmosphere[23] Sector Trends - Strong sectors included rare earths, with companies like Northern Rare Earth announcing price increases, and the CRO sector, driven by performance boosts from companies like WuXi AppTec[41] - The brokerage sector also showed strength, benefiting from the overall market rally[41] Future Outlook - Upcoming events include the 9th Rockchip Developer Conference on July 17-18, which may impact TMT sectors[42] - The focus for mid-term industry allocation will be on active domestic circulation, technological self-reliance, and expanding openness[46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the engineering machinery and shipbuilding sectors, emphasizing the importance of new technology iterations in lithium battery equipment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector shows resilience in domestic sales and continued high demand for exports, with excavator sales in June 2025 reaching 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13% [2]. - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a recovery in sentiment, with a significant increase in the order backlog, and Chinese shipbuilding companies are expected to see substantial profit growth in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The solid-state battery equipment sector is in a trial production phase, with equipment manufacturers actively validating and iterating technologies, anticipating a large-scale verification period in the second half of 2025 [3][20]. - The railway transportation sector is benefiting from steady growth in fixed asset investment, with China Railway's profits expected to increase significantly in the first half of 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - Domestic excavator sales in June 2025 reached 8,136 units, a 6% year-on-year increase, while exports totaled 10,668 units, up 19% [2]. - The sector is expected to maintain considerable growth due to government funding and increasing demand from emerging markets [2]. Shipbuilding Industry - The new ship price index remains high, with a 20% year-on-year increase in the order backlog [3]. - Chinese shipbuilding companies are projected to achieve net profits of 2.8 to 3.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 98% to 119% [3]. Solid-State Battery Equipment - The solid-state battery sector is expected to enter a large-scale verification phase in late 2025, with significant demand for new equipment arising from the transition to dry processing methods [20][21]. - Key players in the solid-state battery equipment market include leading suppliers like Xian Dao Intelligent and Hangke Technology [22]. Railway Transportation - As of May 2025, China's railway fixed asset investment reached 242.1 billion yuan, a 6% year-on-year increase [4]. - China Railway is expected to report a net profit of 6.72 to 7.56 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60% to 80% [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights a steady increase in domestic electrification rates and a strong recovery in European sales, with global sales expected to grow by 21% in 2025 and maintain over 15% growth in 2026 [2][3] - In 2025, domestic electric vehicle sales are projected to reach 5.61 million units, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with an annual growth forecast of 25% [2][5] - The report anticipates a robust demand for lithium batteries, with a revised growth estimate of over 30% in 2025 and nearly 20% in 2026, driven by strong energy storage policies and market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that the profitability of the industry has begun to recover slightly, with leading companies starting to expand production in an orderly manner, while smaller firms continue to exit the market [2][3] - The report notes a significant disparity in profitability across different segments of the supply chain, with leading battery manufacturers maintaining high profit levels compared to second-tier manufacturers [2][3] - The solid-state battery technology is highlighted as a key area of focus, with advancements expected in sulfide-based materials and core equipment, indicating a rapid acceleration in industrialization [2][3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations emphasize focusing on leading lithium battery companies and those accelerating the industrialization of solid-state technologies, with specific companies identified for potential investment [2][3] - The report suggests that the lithium carbonate price has reached a bottom, making it favorable to invest in companies with quality resources [2][3] - The report identifies several companies in the solid-state battery sector that are expected to benefit from technological advancements and market demand [2][3]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20250712 二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250707-20250711） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行与存量情况： 本周（20250707-20250711）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行二级资本 债 2 只，发行规模为 530.00 亿元。发行年限为 10Y；发行人性质为央企 子公司、中央金融企业；主体评级为 AAA；发行人地域为广东省、北京 市。 截至 2025 年 7 月 11 日，二级资本债存量余额达 46,531.35 亿元，较上 周末（20250620）增加 523.0 亿元。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20250707-20250711）二级资本债周成交量合计约 1855 亿元，较 上周减少 61 亿元，成交量前三个券分别为 25 中行二级资本债 01BC （130.29 亿元）、25 工行二级资本债 02BC（102.48 亿元）和 25 工行 二级资本债 01BC（86.30 亿元）。 分发行主体地域来看，成交量前三为北京市、上海市和广东省，分别约 为 1392 亿元、125 亿元和 7 ...