Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the environmental industry, specifically focusing on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and its related sectors [1]. Core Insights - Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is identified as the only feasible solution for carbon reduction in the aviation sector, with potential carbon emission reductions of 80%-85% throughout its lifecycle [9][10]. - The demand for SAF is expected to surge due to regulatory mandates in the EU and UK starting in 2025, leading to a significant increase in prices and profitability for SAF producers [15][16]. - The supply of used cooking oil (UCO), a key raw material for SAF production, is projected to become increasingly scarce, driving up its value and creating investment opportunities in companies with access to these resources [4][19]. Summary by Sections 1. SAF as the Only Viable Solution - The aviation sector is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, with liquid fuels being irreplaceable due to high energy density requirements [9]. - SAF can be blended with traditional jet fuel without requiring major modifications to existing aircraft [10]. 2. SAF: EU Regulations and Market Dynamics - The EU will enforce mandatory SAF blending ratios starting in 2025, with targets set for 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050 [16][18]. - The projected SAF demand in the EU is expected to reach 3,662 million tons by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2025 to 2050 [19][20]. 3. UCO Supply and Demand - China's annual UCO utilization is approximately 400 million tons, with significant potential for growth, but collection remains challenging [37]. - The demand for UCO is expected to rise sharply as SAF production increases, with long-term supply shortages anticipated [4][19]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Companies with scarce UCO resources, such as Shanhigh Environmental and Longkun Technology, are recommended for investment due to the increasing value of waste oil resources [4]. - The short-term supply constraints in SAF production are expected to lead to substantial profits for SAF manufacturers [4].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20260114 扰动结束后，美国 Q1 通胀料将反弹——2025 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评 ◼ 展望与策略启示：关注一季度增长与通胀超预期偏强的风险。向前看， 我们认为 26Q1 美国的非农与通胀数据需要更多关注上行风险，这一上 行风险来自宽财政、宽货币的脉冲落地，和一季度常见的偏强季节性。 具体来看，①宽财政：Hutchines Center 测算 26Q1 财政给美国 GDP 的 拉动（财政脉冲）为 2.79%，主要来自政府停摆结束的被动财政扩张的 贡献；②宽货币：参考 2024 年 9-12 月累计 100bps 的连续降息让 25Q1 美国经济意外指数超预期，我们预计 2025 年 9 月以来累计 75bps 的连 续降息也将让 26Q1 美国经济受到宽货币的脉冲刺激；③季节性：2023 年以来，因疫情对相关数据季调模型的"污染"，美国非农就业初值与 2026 年 01 月 14 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhang ...

Macro Strategy - The report anticipates a "good start" for financial data in January 2026, with expectations of a seasonal surge in new loans at the end of 2025 [1] - The US economy shows mixed signals, with a surprising drop in unemployment alleviating concerns about job market deterioration, contributing to a rise in US stock markets [1] - Upcoming focus includes the December US CPI and potential outcomes of the Trump tariff case, with expectations of limited market impact from the tariff case [1] Financial Products - A-share trading volume has surpassed 3 trillion yuan, indicating heightened trading sentiment, but short-term volatility may increase [2] - The macro timing model for January 2026 scores 0, historically correlating with a 76.92% probability of A-share index gains in the following month, averaging a 3.18% increase [2] - The report recommends a balanced allocation based on risk preferences, highlighting sectors like commercial aerospace and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] Industry Insights - The report discusses the "K-shaped" consumption differentiation in China, where high-end quality consumption contrasts with high-cost performance consumption [3][18] - This differentiation reflects a shift in consumer behavior, where emotional value becomes increasingly important alongside practical value [18] - Retail strategies are adapting to this trend, with brands like Xiaomi and BYD offering both high-end and cost-effective products to meet diverse consumer needs [19] Company Analysis - Cangge Mining's profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards due to stable potassium chloride prices and rising lithium and copper prices, with a projected net profit increase of 50% to 90 billion yuan by 2027 [9] - New Fengming's polyester chain is expected to benefit from industry self-discipline measures, with a projected net profit of 11 billion yuan by 2027, supported by a new investment in an Egyptian project [10] - Tongkun Co. is positioned as a leading polyester filament producer, with a projected net profit of 20 billion yuan by 2027, benefiting from ongoing industry improvements and a new green fiber project [11] - Rebio Biotech, a leader in the siRNA field, is expected to tap into a potential market worth 10 billion USD with its FXI siRNA product, currently in phase 2 clinical trials [12][13]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 容百科技（688005） 2025 年业绩预告点评：Q4 单季扭亏，钠电 正极放量在即 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 22,657 | 15,088 | 11,961 | 19,934 | 25,192 | | 同比（%） | (24.78) | (33.41) | (20.72) | 66.66 | 26.37 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 580.91 | 295.91 | (170.84) | 456.42 | 850.02 | | 同比（%） | (57.07) | (49.06) | (157.73) | 367.17 | 86.24 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.81 | 0.41 | (0.24) | 0.64 | 1.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 45.20 | 88.74 | (153.71) | 57.53 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The domestic polyester chain is advancing with self-discipline measures to reduce production, which is expected to enhance profitability for the company. The company is also investing in an Egyptian filament project to expand its international presence and mitigate trade barriers [8]. - The company's revenue and net profit are projected to grow significantly, with net profit expected to reach 2.346 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 37.29% [1][8]. - The report highlights that the company plans to invest 280 million USD in the Egyptian project, which will produce 360,000 tons of functional polyester fibers annually [8]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is forecasted to increase from 61.469 billion yuan in 2023 to 83.828 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.22% [1]. - The company's net profit is expected to grow from 1.086 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.346 billion yuan in 2027, with a notable increase of 628.44% in 2024 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.71 yuan in 2023 to 1.54 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [1]. Market Data - The company's closing price is reported at 19.54 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 29.79 billion yuan [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 27.43 in 2023 to 12.70 in 2027, suggesting an improving valuation as earnings grow [1][9].

Macro Liquidity and Fund Prices - The central bank conducted a significant net withdrawal in the open market, with a cumulative net withdrawal of 1.66 trillion yuan, primarily due to the maturity of reverse repos around the year-end[7] - Money market rates remained stable, with R007 and DR007 rates down by 64bp and 51bp respectively, indicating a continued loose monetary environment[10] - The yield on 1-year and 10-year government bonds decreased by 4.9bp and increased by 3.1bp respectively, reflecting pressure on the bond market amid a strong stock market[10] Micro Liquidity and A-share Market - A-shares experienced a significant increase in trading volume, with an average daily trading amount rising to 28,519.51 billion yuan, a 34% increase from the previous period[14] - The net inflow of funds into A-shares reached 748 billion yuan, driven by accelerated inflows of financing funds[18] - Retail investors showed increased activity, with net inflows of 1,557 billion yuan, marking a 641 billion yuan increase from the previous period[24] Short-term Indicator Tracking - The volatility index is at a relatively high level, suggesting that maintaining current volume levels may be challenging, with a likelihood of short-term consolidation and slower growth[57] - The stock-foreign exchange hedging index indicated a significant divergence, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the A-share market following recent gains[60] Risk Warnings - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, unexpected overseas recession, geopolitical black swan events, and discrepancies in statistical data[74]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (桐昆股份) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the polyester chain is undergoing a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to improve the profitability of the company in the future [8]. - The company is the largest producer of polyester filament in the world and is constructing a 1.2 million tons/year green differentiated fiber project [8]. - The report anticipates significant growth in net profit for the company, projecting net profits of 20 billion, 35 billion, and 40 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 82.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 33.30% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 797.04 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 539.10% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.33 yuan, with a projected P/E ratio of 52.38 [1]. - The company’s total assets are forecasted to be 104.39 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.30% [6][9]. - The report predicts a gradual increase in net profit margins, with the net profit margin expected to rise from 1.19% in 2024 to 3.88% in 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the CPI and PPI are better than expected, reflecting a gradual recovery in the real estate chain prices, suggesting that 2026 may mark a turning point for the industry's performance [2]. - Short-term market conditions remain volatile, with a focus on high-dividend stocks and sectors such as exports and home improvement [2]. - The report highlights the importance of technological self-reliance during the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which is expected to benefit cleanroom engineering and related companies [2]. - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, but signs of recovery are emerging as companies reduce personnel and expenses [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for structural growth in the glass fiber and cement sectors, driven by demand from wind power and new applications [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - Cement prices have shown a slight decline, with the national average at 352.5 RMB/ton, down 0.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 51.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [7][18]. - The average cement inventory ratio is 60.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [25]. - The average daily cement shipment rate is 38.7%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [25]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the glass fiber industry is expected to see stable growth in demand, with effective production capacity projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [11]. - The cement industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity, which is expected to support profitability in 2026 [11]. - The glass market is experiencing a supply contraction, which may provide price elasticity in 2026, although current demand remains weak [11]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector saw a weekly increase of 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.90% [7]. - The report suggests that the valuation of leading companies in the construction materials sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery as industry dynamics improve [11]. - Recommendations include companies like China National Building Material and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing industry consolidation and recovery [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 114.6 RMB / 128.3 HKD, indicating approximately 50% upside potential from the current stock price of 86.8 HKD [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the siRNA field, focusing on chronic diseases and has developed proprietary delivery technologies with global competitiveness. It has established strategic partnerships, including one with Boehringer Ingelheim, which could yield up to 2.36 billion euros in milestone payments [7][19]. - The global market for small nucleic acid drugs is projected to grow significantly, from 5.7 billion USD in 2024 to 54.9 billion USD by 2033, with a CAGR of 21%-29% [7][43]. - The company's FXI siRNA product has the potential to tap into a market space worth over 10 billion USD, addressing significant clinical needs in the anticoagulant drug market [7][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2007, specializes in siRNA drug development and has built a comprehensive industry chain from drug discovery to commercialization, becoming a global leader in the small nucleic acid drug development field [13][14]. Market Potential - The small nucleic acid drug market is expected to grow rapidly, with siRNA drugs projected to capture a larger market share due to advancements in delivery systems and chemical modifications [43][45]. - The report highlights that the siRNA market is anticipated to grow at a higher rate than ASO drugs, with siRNA drugs expected to account for 44.5% of the market by 2024 [43][45]. Product Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline with four candidates in Phase 2 clinical trials and over 20 projects in preclinical stages, demonstrating a strong capability to advance multiple assets to clinical development each year [26][24]. - Key products include FXI siRNA, APOC3 siRNA, and HBV siRNA, each targeting significant patient populations and addressing unmet clinical needs [7][29]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with total revenue projected to reach 142.63 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 324,052.27% [1]. - The company anticipates achieving profitability by 2030, with a 50% revenue sharing model with partners [7].

Macro Strategy - The report anticipates a "good start" for financial data in January 2026, driven by seasonal factors and government fiscal policies [1][11] - The U.S. economy shows mixed signals, with a surprising drop in unemployment alleviating some market concerns, while geopolitical tensions and unresolved tariff issues add uncertainty [1][11] - The expectation for Q1 2026 is a potential upward pulse in the U.S. economy, benefiting risk assets like equities and commodities [1][11] Financial Products - A-share trading volume surpassed 30 trillion yuan, indicating heightened trading sentiment, but also suggesting potential for increased short-term volatility [2][12] - The macro timing model for January 2026 scores 0, historically correlating with a 76.92% probability of A-share index gains in the following month [2][12] - The report recommends a balanced ETF allocation strategy, focusing on sectors showing strength and those rebounding from lows [2][12] Fixed Income - The report discusses the "stock-bond seesaw effect," highlighting a steepening yield curve under a loose monetary policy environment [5][14] - The central economic work conference indicates a flexible approach to monetary policy, with potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions in Q1 2026 [5][14] - The bond market is experiencing adjustments, with a notable shift of funds from bonds to equities, influenced by strong stock market performance [5][14] Industry Recommendations - Xianle Health (300791) is highlighted for its commitment to innovation and growth potential in the health sector [7] - WeRide (00800.HK) is positioned as a leader in the Robotaxi space, expected to benefit from policy support and technological advancements, with projected revenues increasing significantly from 5.55 billion yuan in 2025 to 19.87 billion yuan by 2027 [7] - Haidilao (06862.HK) maintains a strong market position with a focus on operational efficiency and new brand development, projecting net profits to grow from 42.28 billion yuan in 2025 to 51.13 billion yuan in 2027 [8] - Lingyun Co. (600480) is recognized for its leadership in the automotive parts sector, with expected net profits rising from 8.01 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.55 billion yuan in 2027 [9]