证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 黄金，短期见顶了吗？ 2025 年 09 月 17 日 1、黄金处在超买水平，波动可能加大。当前黄金 14 日 RSI 达 78，已经超买 至近 10 年超 90%的分位水平，意味着或有部分止盈兑现离场。更重要的是， 相较于表现更为极致的 RSI，全球 ETF 流量、现货和期货持仓等并没那么 热。所以我们担心黄金交易短期过热，存在回调风险（图 3）。 2、黄金 ETF 的资金流并未形成一致性趋势。从区域来看，近一个月，美国 黄金 ETF 流入量较大，中国反而在流出（图 4）。美国前三大黄金 ETF 共 流入约 3670 亿美元，中国两只黄金 ETF 合计流出超 265 亿美元，成为全球 唯一显著减持区域。从机构与散户行为来看，散户在边际增持黄金（图 5） 机构则边际减持黄金。 3、现货挤兑有限。黄金库存并未被明显推高，市场对实物黄金交割需求没有 显著上升（图 6-7），暗示短期内现货挤兑程度相对有限，黄金多头情绪不 极致；另外，各期限黄金租赁利率降至 0 以下（图 8），意味着黄金现货需 求并不紧张，提货需求没有明显上升，黄金多头并不过于强势。且短端与长 端倒挂不明显，尽管还 ...

Macro Strategy - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to occur through three main avenues: 1) appointing a Fed chair who is loyal to him, anticipated to be nominated in November and take office in May next year; 2) restructuring the Fed Board to eliminate dissenting members and install loyalists; 3) influencing the appointment of regional Fed presidents whose terms expire in February [1][20]. - With the new Fed chair's appointment, it is projected that the Fed will have a more significant influence on monetary policy, potentially leading to a greater than expected rate cut in 2026, with policy rates possibly falling below the neutral level of 3% [1][20]. Economic Data Analysis - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, with supply adjustments lagging behind demand, reinforcing a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand. Specifically, investment has shown negative growth for two consecutive months, and retail sales growth has been declining since May [2][21]. - The divergence between supply and demand is expected to yield three outcomes: 1) GDP growth will align more closely with supply data, with Q3 GDP growth projected around 5%; 2) the current supply exceeding demand may increase price pressures, necessitating stronger policy support for price recovery; 3) if demand does not strengthen, supply will likely follow suit, leading to greater pressure on Q4 GDP compared to Q3 [2][21]. Industry Insights - The gaming industry in H1 2025 has shown strong performance, driven by innovative categories such as "micro-horror search and escape" and "overseas SLG," which have positively impacted the performance and valuation of corresponding companies [15]. - In the shipbuilding sector, new ship price indices remain high, and the merger of major shipbuilding companies is nearing completion, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Shipbuilding [15]. - The environmental sector is seeing advancements in pricing mechanisms for renewable energy, particularly in waste-to-energy projects, which could enhance the economic viability of green electricity supply [17][18].

证券研究报告 并购重组跟踪（三十五） 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年9月16日 1、本期并购动态回顾 2、风险提示 2 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 目录 ✓ 9月15日，上海市政府发布《上海市促进高端医疗器械产业全链条发展行动方案》，提出支持企业通过并 购等方式，优化布局，加快国际化发展 1. 本期并购动态回顾 注：本期为9.1-9.14，（如无特殊说明）后文同 3 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 一：政策更新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dingzhi Technology [1] Core Views - Dingzhi Technology plans to acquire 51% of the precision gear company Sailun Tech for approximately 100 million yuan, enhancing its "precision transmission + intelligent drive" capabilities [7] - The acquisition is expected to improve the company's product structure and increase its core technology competitiveness and profitability [7] - The integration of Dingzhi's motor products with Sailun's gear products is anticipated to create a comprehensive solution for various applications, including robotics and medical devices [7] - The financial forecasts for Dingzhi Technology have been adjusted upwards, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 460 million, 590 million, and 720 million yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 282.47 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.31% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 80.91 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 19.80% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 0.43 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 99.35 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 738 million yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 8.33% [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The performance of A-share game companies in H1 2025 is strong, driven by two innovative game categories: "Micro Horror Search and Fight" and "Overseas SLG" [2]. - "Micro Horror Search and Fight" is expected to become a long-lasting game with a high profit margin, enhancing the performance of companies like Giant Network [2]. - The overseas SLG market is entering a new expansion cycle, with leading companies showing significant advantages [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Micro Horror Search and Fight: Long-lasting Games with High DAU - The "Search and Fight" category creates a loop of investment, risk, and return, making players addicted through high failure penalties and strong victory rewards [10]. - The game "Supernatural Action Group" targets the casual social and female-oriented segment, with no current competitors in the market, indicating potential for sustained growth [2][20]. - The female gaming market is projected to reach 8 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 124.1% year-on-year, highlighting the increasing importance of female players [11]. 2. Overseas SLG: New Expansion Cycle in the Industry - The overseas SLG mobile game market is expected to reach $124.64 billion in 2024 and $73.08 billion in H1 2025, with year-on-year growth of 17% and 25% respectively [43]. - Chinese companies are projected to generate $185.57 billion in overseas revenue in 2024, with strategy games accounting for 41.38% of the top 100 games [43]. - SLG games have high user value, with the average revenue per download (RPD) for 4X SLG being 8-9 times higher than the overall mobile game level [44]. 3. Major Companies - Giant Network is expected to benefit significantly from "Supernatural Action Group," which could lead to a "Davis Double" effect, enhancing both revenue and valuation [71].

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·机械设备 机械设备行业点评报告 船舶行业 8 月点评：新造船价格指数维持高 位，南北船合并步入收官 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 8 月末新造船指数同比-1.6%，供给约束支撑船价维持高位 根据克拉克森，2025 年 8 月船舶行业新签订单 422 万载重吨，同比-77.5%， 环比-57.9%，1-8 月船舶行业累计新签订单 6692 万载重吨，同比-52.8%。 新船订单虽然受基数较高、美国 301 调查和船舶法案影响，同比下滑，但 投资总额依然庞大，高于过去 10 年平均水平 27.2%。分船型，散货船/油 轮/集装箱船/气体运输船 8 月新签订单 17/103/201/68 万载重吨，1-8 月累 计新签订单 1475/1551/3060/174 万载重吨，同比分别-67.4%/-67.5%/+0.3%/- 74.8%，集装箱船新签订单仍有支撑。2025 年 8 月末新造船价格指数为 186.3，同比-1.6%，较年初下降 1.6%，环比 7 月下降 0.2%。分船型，散货 船/油轮/集装箱船/气体运输船价格指数为 16 ...

Macro Strategy - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected through three main avenues: nominating a chairman aligned with his interests, restructuring the board to include loyalists, and influencing the appointment of regional Fed presidents [1] - The anticipated changes in the Fed's leadership could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts exceeding current market expectations, possibly resulting in a shift from a soft landing to moderate economic expansion in the U.S. [1] Economic Data Review - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, leading to a situation where supply adjustments lag behind demand, reinforcing a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand [2][3] - Investment has shown negative growth for two consecutive months, while retail sales growth has been declining since May, indicating a comprehensive weakening of demand [2] - Despite the demand weakness, supply remains high, with industrial and service production growth rates above 5%, suggesting that GDP growth may align more closely with supply data [2] Financial Market Insights - The market is increasingly anticipating the resumption of "government bond trading," with expectations rising for the end of the year, which could stabilize bond yields and further lower financing costs for the real economy [4][5] - The recent financial data indicates a seasonal rebound, but loan demand remains weak, which could lead to a decline in social financing growth and M2 money supply growth [4][6] Industry Insights - The renewable energy sector is seeing improvements in pricing mechanisms that facilitate local consumption of green electricity, which is expected to benefit companies involved in waste-to-energy and SAF production [10] - The construction materials industry is advised to focus on domestic demand changes, with expectations of a recovery in retail construction materials as the market adjusts [11][12] - The public utilities sector is recommended for investments in companies like South Grid Energy and South Grid Storage, which are expected to benefit from new pricing mechanisms and increased demand for energy storage [13] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector is entering a new phase, with a focus on electric and intelligent vehicles, and recommendations for increasing exposure to companies benefiting from these trends [15][16] - The recent government initiatives aim to stabilize growth in the automotive industry, with a focus on both scale and quality [15] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The non-banking financial sector is characterized by low average valuations, presenting opportunities for investment, particularly in insurance and securities [20] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, while the securities sector is poised for growth due to favorable market conditions [20] Coal Industry - The coal industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with expectations of fluctuating prices due to reduced demand as temperatures drop [21] - Recommendations include focusing on resilient coal companies that can withstand market pressures [21] Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector is facing challenges with OPEC+ increasing production, leading to a decline in international oil prices [25] - Companies involved in oil exploration and production are recommended for investment, given the potential for price recovery in the long term [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The improvement of the near-consumption pricing mechanism for renewable energy will facilitate the direct connection of green electricity, benefiting waste-to-energy projects [9][10] - The price of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has reached a new high in Europe, positively impacting UCO and SAF producers in China [11][12] - The solid waste sector has seen significant acceleration in national subsidies for recycling, leading to improved cash flow and dividend payouts [15][16] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection industry is experiencing a positive trend with the implementation of new pricing mechanisms for renewable energy, which will enhance the economic viability of waste-to-energy projects [9][10] - The SAF market in Europe is tightening, leading to increased prices and benefiting UCO and SAF producers in China [11][12] Solid Waste Sector - National subsidies for recycling have accelerated significantly, with a reported 2.064 billion yuan received in July-August 2025, surpassing the previous year's figures [15] - The solid waste sector is seeing improvements in return on equity (ROE) and cash flow, with a focus on operational efficiency and reduced financial costs [15][16] Water Sector - The water sector is poised for growth with expected improvements in cash flow and dividend payouts, similar to trends observed in the waste-to-energy sector [19][20] - Recent water price reforms in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen are anticipated to drive further growth in the sector [19] Sanitation Equipment - The sales of sanitation vehicles have increased, with a notable rise in the penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles, reaching 16.14% [22][23] - The market for electric sanitation vehicles is expanding rapidly, with sales growth of 77.55% in the first seven months of 2025 [22][23] Biofuel Sector - The average price of waste cooking oil has decreased, leading to an increase in profit margins for biofuel producers [32] - The biofuel market is expected to remain stable, with ongoing demand for waste oils and limited supply growth [32] Lithium Battery Recycling - The profitability of lithium battery recycling is improving as the prices of lithium carbonate and other materials decline [33][34]

执业证书：S0600524120013 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 #海外政治 特朗普干预美联储独立性的三个途径 2025 年 09 月 15 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《市场对重启"国债买卖"的预期升 温》 2025-09-14 《9 月 FOMC 前瞻：降息已成定局， 关注点阵图指引与美联储独立性》 2025-09-14 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：特朗普对美联储独立性的干预主要通过三个途径：①提名一 个听命于自己的美联储主席，预计在今年 11 月提名，明年 5 月上任； ②调整美联储理事会的人事结构，尽可能排除库克这类前总统提名的 "异己"，同时安插米兰这类的"忠 ...

Supply and Demand Analysis - In August, industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in July, while the service production index increased by 5.6%, down from 5.8%[4] - External demand weakened with exports growing by 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in July, and below the expected 5.9%[4] - Domestic demand also declined, with retail sales growing by 3.4%, unchanged from July, and below the expected 3.8%[4] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) showed a cumulative growth of 0.5%, down from 1.6% in July, with monthly growth dropping from -5.2% to -6.3%[6] Economic Outlook - The divergence between supply and demand is expected to lead to three outcomes: GDP growth will align more closely with supply data, with Q3 GDP growth projected around 5%[4] - Strong supply relative to weak demand may increase price pressures, necessitating stronger policy support for price recovery[4] - Historically, if demand does not strengthen, supply will follow suit, indicating greater pressure on Q4 GDP compared to Q3[4] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing remains a key driver of production resilience, with its added value growing by 9.3% year-on-year in August[4] - The restaurant sector showed a rebound in consumption, with retail sales in this category growing by 2.1%, up from 1.1% in July[5] - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure and real estate continued to decline, with infrastructure investment dropping from -1.9% to -6.4% and real estate investment from -17.2% to -19.4%[6]