证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20260118 多举措支持下经济"开门红"的可能性进一 步提升 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 2026 年 01 月 18 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《情绪过热后略有降温，但大方向依 旧乐观》 2026-01-18 《特朗普的"通胀焦虑"与上中下策》 2026-01-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2026 年 1 月 18 日，本周 ECI 供给指数为49.96%，较上周回升0.01个百分点；ECI需求指数为49.84%， 较上周回升 0.01 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.83%，较 上周回落 0.01 个百分点；ECI 消费指数为 49.66 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [49]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.65%, ranking second among the SW automotive sector, with a year-to-date increase of 5.07% [2][10]. - The robotics sector has also performed well, with a weekly increase of 1.81% and a year-to-date increase of 5.62%, outperforming the automotive parts sector by 0.16% [2][22]. - Key developments include 富临精工 planning to issue 3.175 billion yuan in stock to 宁德时代, which will become a significant shareholder [2][33]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on product-oriented companies and those entering high-value segments to enhance average selling prices (ASP) in the automotive parts sector, and identifying certainty opportunities in the robotics sector [2][44]. Summary by Sections Automotive Parts Sector Weekly Review - The automotive parts sector has shown a strong performance with a 1.65% increase this week and a 5.07% increase year-to-date, ranking second in the SW automotive sector [2][10]. - The sector's PE (TTM) is at 84.66% historical percentile, and PB (LF) is at 79.21% historical percentile, indicating a favorable valuation [20]. Robotics Sector Weekly Review - The robotics index increased by 1.81% this week and 5.62% year-to-date, with a notable outperformance against the automotive parts sector [2][22]. - The latest PE (TTM) for the robotics sector is at 92.18% historical percentile, and PB (LF) is at 93.83% historical percentile, suggesting strong valuation metrics [32]. Key Company Tracking - Notable weekly performance includes 新泉股份 (+16.24%), 恒帅股份 (+11.36%), and 岱美股份 (+8.76%) [2][37]. - Significant corporate actions include 双环传动's capital increase of 100 million yuan to its subsidiary and 福达股份's completion of a convertible bond issuance of 470 million yuan [2][42]. Investment Recommendations - For the automotive parts sector, recommended stocks based on EPS include 福耀玻璃, 星宇股份, and 敏实集团, while PE recommendations include 拓普集团 and 银轮股份 [2][44].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260118 周观：结构性降息后，债市将如何表现？ （2026 年第 3 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 如何理解结构性降息和"今年降准降息还有一定空间"？本周 （2026.1.12-2026.1.16），10 年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的 1.886% 下行 4.3bp 至本周五的 1.843%。周度复盘：周一（1.12），早盘财政对个 人消费贷和小微贷进行贴息的消息令债市情绪偏空，利率小幅上行。股 市开盘后有所下跌加之资金保持宽松，债市有所修复。随后股市明显上 涨，但国债期货走势也较强带动现券走强，出现"股债双牛"，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 1.5bp。周二（1.13），今日有 6000 亿元买断 式逆回购到期，但央行并未提前按照惯例公布续作信息，债市对于资金 面情绪谨慎，令利率上行。午后关于买断式逆回购将放量续作的预期发 酵，带动利率修复式下行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 1.1bp。 周三（1.14），早盘资金面收紧，股市大涨，叠加进出口数据较强，均对 债市构成压制，利率出现上行。午 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [23]. Core Insights - The smart car index decreased by 2.7% this week, while the index excluding Tesla fell by 5.6%. As of January 16, 2026, the smart car index PS (TTM) is 13.7x, placing it in the 93rd percentile since the beginning of 2023. The index excluding Tesla has a PS (TTM) of 6.9x, in the 95th percentile since early 2023 [2][10]. - Key developments in the industry include Shanghai's plan for large-scale deployment of high-level autonomous driving scenarios by 2027, and the Greater Bay Area's six cities announcing mutual recognition for road testing and demonstration applications of smart connected vehicles [2][14]. - Current investment recommendations favor B-end software companies over C-end hardware companies, with preferred stocks including Xpeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, Pony.ai, and others in H-shares, and Qianli Technology and Desay SV in A-shares [2]. Market Performance Review - The smart car index has shown a decline of 2.7% this week, with the index excluding Tesla down by 5.6% [8][10]. - The top five gainers in the smart car index include Cao Cao Mobility, Asia-Pacific Shares, Jingwei Hengrun, Hesai Technology, and Pony.ai [2]. Key Changes in the Industry - Significant changes include Tesla expanding its testing range with the Cybercab arriving in Buffalo, New York for winter testing, and the global Robotaxi fleet of WeRide reaching 1,023 vehicles [2][14]. - Waymo's latest daily active users reached 107,900, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 531.2% [18]. Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on B-end software stocks and highlights specific companies for investment based on various application scenarios, including Robotaxi and Robovan perspectives [2]. - Recommended stocks for Robotaxi include Tesla and Xpeng Motors, while technology providers and operational sharing models include Horizon Robotics and Baidu [2]. Company-Specific Insights - Tesla's discoverable fleet reached 195 vehicles as of January 16, 2026, with a total FSD mileage of 7.29 billion miles [18]. - WeRide's Robotaxi fleet has entered the thousand-vehicle milestone, indicating significant growth in the autonomous vehicle sector [14].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 短期调整无损投资价值，继续看好保险/券商 估值提升 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 01 月 18 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 24% 2025/1/20 2025/5/20 2025/9/17 2026/1/15 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《交投活跃度再提升；保险开门红如 约而至；继续看好保险/券商》 2026-01-12 《公募基金改革陆续落地，推动行业 高质量发展》 2026-01-11 东吴证券研究所 1 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2026 年 01 月 12 日-2026 年 01 月 16 日）非银金融各子板块均跑输沪深 300 指数。证券行业下跌 2.29%，多元金融行业下跌 3.19%，保险行业下跌 3.64%，非银金融整体 下跌 2.76%， ...

Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 1.58% as of January 16, 2026, compared to the previous week[5] - The average market capitalization of North Exchange A-shares is 3.069 billion yuan[14] - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was approximately 40.191 billion yuan, up 53.80% from the previous week[5] Sector Analysis - High-end manufacturing and new materials have become the main market themes recently[1] - The North Exchange A-shares have a turnover rate of 7.89%, which is significantly higher than that of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board[5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-prosperity sectors and scarce leading companies driven by policy catalysts, such as commercial aerospace, intelligent manufacturing, and digital economy[5] - The PE ratios for North Exchange A-shares, ChiNext, Shanghai Main Board, Shenzhen Main Board, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board are 73.80, 77.49, 14.08, 43.29, and 248.68 respectively, indicating significant valuation differentiation[22] Regulatory News - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued guidelines to standardize government investment fund operations, effective for five years[10] - The Ministry of Commerce imposed anti-dumping duties on imported polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea, with rates ranging from 4.4% to 113.8%[11] Risks - Policy risks may affect market stability, with potential volatility if policies do not meet expectations[23] - Liquidity risks remain, as the North Exchange's overall liquidity is lower than that of the main boards[23]

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Weekly Report: International Oil Prices Fluctuated and Rose Supported by Concerns over Iranian Supply - Report Date: January 18, 2026 - Chief Analyst: Chen Shuxian, CFA - Analyst: Zhou Shaowen 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report mainly presents the weekly data of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, including prices, inventories, production, demand, and import and export volumes. It also provides the performance and valuation of related listed companies, and recommends a number of oil - related companies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Upstream Key Company Performance**: The report shows the recent performance of upstream key companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec, including stock price changes in the past week, month, quarter, year, and year - to - date. It also provides the valuation of these companies, including total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, P/E ratio, and P/B ratio [8]. - **Crude Oil Market**: Brent and WTI crude oil futures had average weekly prices of $64.8 and $60.3 per barrel respectively, up $3.2 and $2.6 from the previous week. The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.4 billion, 4.2 billion, 4.1 billion, and 0.2 billion barrels respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 361, 339, 21, and 75 barrels. US crude oil production was 13.75 million barrels per day, down 60,000 barrels per day week - on - week. The number of active US crude oil rigs was 410, up 1 week - on - week, and the number of active fracturing fleets was 156, up 4 week - on - week. US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.96 million barrels per day, up 50,000 barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery operating rate was 95.3%, up 0.6 percentage points week - on - week. US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 7.09 million, 4.31 million, and 2.79 million barrels per day respectively, up 750,000, 40,000, and 710,000 barrels per day week - on - week [2][8]. - **Refined Oil Market**: The average weekly prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $76, $92, and $89 per barrel respectively, with a week - on - week change of +$3.0, +$3.5, and -$5.1. The inventory of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel was 250 million, 130 million, and 40 million barrels respectively, with a week - on - week change of +8.98 million, -30,000, and -890,000 barrels. The production of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel was 9.03 million, 5.3 million, and 1.85 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of +30,000, -20,000, and -20,000 barrels. The consumption of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel was 8.3 million, 4.1 million, and 1.88 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of +130,000, +900,000, and +180,000 barrels. The import, export, and net export of US gasoline were 130,000, 860,000, and 730,000 barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of +30,000, -110,000, and -130,000 barrels. Similar data is also provided for diesel and jet fuel [2][9]. - **Oil Service Market**: The average weekly daily rates of self - elevating offshore drilling platforms and semi - submersible offshore drilling platforms remained unchanged week - on - week, month - on - month, and quarter - on - quarter [9]. 3.2 This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance**: The report presents the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector, including the sector's overall performance and the performance of its sub - industries. However, specific numerical data is not fully presented in the provided text [11]. - **Listed Company Performance in the Sector**: The report shows the stock price changes of upstream companies in the sector, including CNOOC, PetroChina, Sinopec, and other companies, in the past week, month, quarter, year, and year - to - date. It also provides the valuation of these companies, including total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, P/E ratio, and P/B ratio [22][23]. 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price**: The report shows the prices of various crude oils such as Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO, as well as their price differences. It also analyzes the relationship between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price [8][9]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: It presents the inventory data of US crude oil, including total inventory, commercial inventory, strategic inventory, and Cushing inventory, and analyzes the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices [8][41]. - **Crude Oil Supply**: It shows the production data of US crude oil, including production volume, the number of drilling rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets, and analyzes the relationship between the number of drilling rigs, fracturing fleets, and oil prices [8][60]. - **Crude Oil Demand**: It presents the crude oil processing volume and operating rate of US refineries, as well as the operating rates of Chinese local and major refineries [8]. - **Crude Oil Import and Export**: It shows the import, export, and net import data of US crude oil and petroleum products [8]. 3.4 Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Refined Oil Price**: It analyzes the relationship between international oil prices and domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices, and presents the prices and price differences of refined oils in different regions such as the US, Europe, and Singapore [9][91]. - **Refined Oil Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of US and Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel [9]. - **Refined Oil Supply**: It presents the production data of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel [9]. - **Refined Oil Demand**: It shows the consumption data of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as the number of airport security checks of US passengers [9][150]. - **Refined Oil Import and Export**: It shows the import, export, and net export data of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel [9]. 3.5 Oil Service Sector Data Tracking The report presents the average daily rates of self - elevating and semi - submersible offshore drilling platforms [9]. 3.6 Related Listed Companies - **Recommended Companies**: CNOOC/China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina/PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec/China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), CNOOC Development Co., Ltd. (600968.SH) [3]. - **Companies to Watch**: Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), Sinopec Machinery Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3].

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 3.47 trillion CNY, an increase of over 600 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a weekly decline of 0.45%[11] Market Style Performance - The ChiNext 50 index had the highest weekly gain of 2.58%[11] - Small-cap growth stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with a relative advantage in the positive range[13] Participant Performance - The private equity heavy stock index showed the best performance with a weekly increase of 1.52%[19] - The social security heavy stock index decreased slightly by 0.06%[19] Market Sentiment - The margin trading balance increased to over 2.7 trillion CNY, indicating heightened market activity[23] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit down increased, reflecting negative feedback from high-priced stocks[23] Sector Performance - The report highlights strong sectors, including technology and safety, with a focus on AI and energy security[44] - The report also emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption and service sectors in driving economic growth[44] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, increasing market uncertainty[47] - Geopolitical risks and uncertainties regarding U.S. policies could negatively impact A-share liquidity[47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The current supply-demand situation in the coal mining industry is weak, leading to a decline in port coal prices. The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 12.73 thousand tons week-on-week, while the average daily outflow also rose by 9.45 thousand tons. However, the overall inventory at the ports increased by 33.50 million tons, indicating a high inventory level and weak demand, which is expected to keep coal prices fluctuating [1][28][32] - The report suggests that the short-term high temperatures across the country will not boost residential heating demand, and the daily consumption of power plants is declining. Additionally, the share of thermal power is being squeezed by renewable energy sources, leading to an expectation of a stable coal price trend [1][19] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,101.91 points, down 1.52% week-on-week. The coal sector index closed at 2,833.39 points, down 2.7% [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - The price of thermal coal at the production site has shown a slight decline, with the price in Datong down by 49 yuan/ton, while prices in Inner Mongolia remained stable [16] 3. Inventory Levels - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 166.90 million tons, and the outflow was 171.40 million tons, indicating increased activity but also higher inventory levels [28][32] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on elastic coal stocks, particularly Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, which are considered undervalued [2][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights three major investment opportunities in the mechanical equipment sector: the Belt and Road Initiative, demand recovery in Europe and the US, and the transition from capacity to technology export in high-end manufacturing [2][18] - Solid-state battery technology is accelerating, benefiting equipment manufacturers, with significant investments from leading companies like BYD and Gotion [3][20] - The humanoid robot sector is poised for growth with Tesla's Optimus V3 nearing mass production, indicating strong market potential for core suppliers [4][41] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: Northern Huachuang, Sany Heavy Industry, Zhongwei Company, Hengli Hydraulic, CIMC, Tuojing Technology, Haitai International, Bichu Electronics, Jingsheng Mechanical, and others [1][15] Mechanical Equipment Export - China’s foreign investment is growing rapidly, with a focus on the Belt and Road Initiative, which is driving demand for domestic equipment in resource-rich countries [2][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality targets with significant exposure to European and American markets, particularly in hand tools and forklifts [19] Lithium Battery Equipment - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing rapid industrialization, with key players accelerating their production capabilities [3][20] - Recommended companies in this sector include: Xian Dao Intelligent, Lian Ying Laser, and Hangke Technology [3][20] Humanoid Robots - The report notes that the release and mass production of Tesla's Optimus V3 will be a significant event for the industry, with a focus on core suppliers with high production certainty [4][41] - Recommended companies include: Hengli Hydraulic, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Top Group [4][41] Forklift Industry - The report indicates a decline in domestic forklift sales but anticipates a recovery in 2026 due to low base effects and improving overseas market conditions [5][19] - Recommended companies include: Hangcha Group, Anhui Heli, and Zhongli [5][19] High-end Manufacturing Export - The report highlights the shift from capacity export to technology export, with a focus on light module equipment and lithium battery equipment [2][18] - Recommended companies include: certain HJT equipment leaders and Aotewei [20][39] Data Center and Liquid Cooling - The report discusses the emergence of liquid cooling technology as essential for data centers, driven by increasing power density and cooling demands [45] - Recommended companies in this sector include: Yingwei Technology and others [34][45]