Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The issuance of new special bonds by various regions increased by 44.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with an issuance progress of 49.1%, indicating a faster pace compared to 2024 but slower than 2022 and 2023. The focus is on supporting infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [2][11] - The construction business activity index for June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the industry. The civil engineering business activity index has remained above 55.0% for three consecutive months, reflecting an acceleration in construction projects [2][11] - There is an increasing focus on urban renewal and major infrastructure investment projects, with the completion of the 800 billion yuan "two重" construction project list expected to accelerate the implementation of key projects and physical workload [2][11] - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises and local state-owned enterprises with low valuations and stable performance, recommending companies such as China Communications Construction, China Electric Power Construction, and China Railway [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is accelerating the renovation of old urban residential areas, with over 50% of construction rates reported in several provinces by June. A total of 180 billion yuan has been allocated for the renovation of 120,000 old elevators [14] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes a balanced approach to infrastructure investment, ensuring the completion of major projects while planning for future initiatives [15] International Expansion - In the first five months of 2025, China's overseas contracting projects saw a 5.4% increase in revenue and a 13% increase in new contracts. Notably, contracts signed in Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 84.93 billion USD, a 20.7% increase year-on-year [3][12] - The report suggests focusing on international engineering sectors, recommending companies such as China Materials International and Shanghai Port Construction [3][12] Demand Structure - There are promising investment opportunities in specialized manufacturing engineering sectors, energy conservation, and new energy-related infrastructure. Companies with relevant transformation layouts are expected to benefit, such as Honglu Steel Structure and Huayang International [3][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, with a projected growth of 60%-80%, amounting to between 6.722 billion and 7.562 billion yuan [2]. - The anticipated growth in net profit is primarily attributed to the concentrated release of high-level maintenance orders for train sets and the delayed delivery of train procurement orders from the end of 2024 [2]. - The recovery of fixed asset investment in railways is expected to drive demand for train sets, with a stable annual planning mileage for high-speed railways in China around 2,500 km [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of 273.163 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.84% [5]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 13.808 billion yuan, representing an increase of 11.47% compared to the previous year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.48 yuan in 2025, with a dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.99 times [5]. Market Dynamics - In 2024, the National Railway Group publicly tendered for 245 sets of 350 km/h train sets, marking a 49% increase year-on-year [4]. - The demand for high-level maintenance of train sets is also expected to rise, with significant new orders signed in 2024 [4]. - The report highlights that the company, as the only domestic manufacturer of complete train sets, is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in railway fixed asset investment [5].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 人形开始百台订单、光伏加强反内卷 2025 年 07 月 13 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 许钧赫 执业证书：S0600123070121 xujunhe@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 31% 36% 2024-7-12 2024-11-10 2025-3-11 2025-7-10 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《人形机器人轻量化：产业化前夕的 进修课，应用为重》 2025-07-12 《风电行业 2025 年度中期策略报告： 25 年陆海风需求共振，看好两海成长 空间》 2025-07-10 东吴证券研究所 1 / 45 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 电气设备 728 ...

[Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·工程机械 柳工（000528） 2025 半年度业绩预告点评：归母净利润同比 +20%~30%超市场预期，看好公司全年业绩 高增 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 27,519 | 30,063 | 35,012 | 39,165 | 45,010 | | 同比（%） | 3.93 | 9.24 | 16.46 | 11.86 | 14.92 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 867.81 | 1,327.04 | 2,071.69 | 2,893.29 | 3,794.95 | | 同比（%） | 44.80 | 52.92 | 56.11 | 39.66 | 31.16 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.43 | 0.66 | 1.03 | 1.43 | 1.88 | | P/E（现价&最新摊 ...

医药生物行业跟踪周报 CXO 及科研服务景气度回暖，建议关注药 明康德、奥浦迈等 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 13 日 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 证券分析师 朱国广 执业证书：S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 冉胜男 执业证书：S0600522090008 ranshn@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘若彤 执业证书：S0600525040006 liurt@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 2024/7/15 2024/11/12 2025/3/12 2025/7/10 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 《PD1/VEGF 双抗引领新一代 IO，建 议关注康方生物、神州细胞等》 2025-07-06 《2025ADA 重磅数据披露，关注减脂 增肌、Amylin 及口服赛道》 2025-06-29 东吴证券研究所 1 / 29 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周、年初至今 A 股医药指数涨幅分 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20250713 关税豁免期延长或带动二次"抢转口" 2025 年 07 月 13 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《房地产对中国经济的影响已明显减 弱》 2025-07-11 《6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延 后至 9 月》 2025-07-06 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2025 年 7 月 13 日，本周 ECI 供给指数为50.14%，较上周回升0.04个百分点；ECI需求指数为49.92%， 较上周回落 0.01 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.96%，较 上周回落 0.02 个百分点；ECI 消费指数为 49.70 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, when the bond market has no clear trading theme, bond yields may be affected by the stock market and tend to rise, but the increase is limited. The bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and liquidity is favorable for the bond market. Yields rising to 1.7% present a configuration opportunity [1][15]. - For US Treasury yields, considering the tariff policy's potential impact on prices and the support of stable - coin reserves for short - term Treasury bonds, the outlook is complex. The Fed has different views on whether to cut interest rates, and the probability of interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - **Impact of the "Stock - Bond Seesaw" on the Bond Market**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose from 1.641% to 1.666%. The stock market's performance significantly affected bond yields this week. Currently, it is more of a liquidity - driven stock bull market, and the bond market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [1][10][15]. - **Trend of US Treasury Yields**: From July 4 - 11, overseas markets generally continued the previous week's trend. US Treasury bonds fell while US stocks remained flat. The increase in short - term US Treasury yields was weaker than that of long - term ones. Considering various data and Fed officials' statements, the probability of Fed interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the total net investment in open - market operations was - 2265 billion yuan [31]. - **Interest Rates**: Various money market interest rates such as R, DR, and SHIBOR changed slightly from July 4 to 11 [33]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased [52]. - **Commodity Prices**: Steel prices rose across the board, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends [54]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, 45 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 231.79 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 121.561 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 110.229 billion yuan [84]. - **Regional Distribution**: 12 provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Guizhou, Hunan, and Heilongjiang ranking in the top three in terms of issuance amount [85]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of local bonds this week was 37.0728 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.71%. The top three provinces with the most active trading were Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong [98]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local bonds showed a general downward trend [102]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for the Month The issuance plans of local bonds in different provinces and cities from July 14 - 18 are provided [110]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: This week, 333 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 287.445 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 199.101 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 88.344 billion yuan, an increase of 10.205 billion yuan compared to last week [106]. - **By Bond Type**: The net financing amounts of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes varied [112]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and corporate bonds changed to different extents [120]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 588.518 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different credit ratings and bond types [122]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yields to maturity of national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends of increase or decrease [123][125][126][127]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [128][130][132][136]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed, while those of corporate bonds showed a general widening trend [142][145][148]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [151][152].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250713 特朗普"对等关税 2.0"威胁延期至 8 月 1 日 2025 年 07 月 13 日 ◼ 风险提示：特朗普政策超预期；美联储降息幅度过大引发通胀反弹甚至 失控；美联储维持高利率水平时间过长，引发金融系统流动性危机。 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 《房地产对中国经济的影响已明显减 弱》 2025-07-11 《6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延 后至 9 月》 2025-07-06 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：本周特朗普对等关税威胁再度来袭，美股小幅走低；而关税 威胁带来的通胀压力也令市场降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average weekly prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $69.8/$67.9 per barrel, up $1.6/$1.6 from last week [2]. - The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 731/707/24/46 thousand barrels [2]. - US crude oil production was 13.39 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 50 thousand barrels per day. The number of active US crude oil rigs this week was 424, a week - on - week decrease of 1. The number of active US fracturing fleets this week was 176, a week - on - week increase of 4 [2]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.01 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 100 thousand barrels per day; the US refinery crude oil utilization rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points [2]. - US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.01/2.76/3.26 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 910 thousand/+450 thousand/ - 1.36 million barrels per day [2]. - The average weekly prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $91/$102/$90 per barrel respectively, with a week - on - week change of +$2.9/+$2.1/ - $4.1. The price spreads with crude oil were $21/$32/$20 per barrel respectively, with a week - on - week change of +$1.2/+$0.4/ - $5.8 [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories were 2.3/1.0/0.4 billion barrels respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 266/83/91 thousand barrels [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production were 9.9/5.09/1.96 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 280 thousand/60 thousand/40 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption were 9.9/5.09/1.96 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 280 thousand/60 thousand/40 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 130 thousand/1.04 million/910 thousand barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 40 thousand/+260 thousand/+300 thousand barrels per day. US diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 40 thousand/1.59 million/1.54 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 80 thousand/+230 thousand/+310 thousand barrels per day. US aviation kerosene imports, exports, and net exports were 80 thousand/250 thousand/170 thousand barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of +10 thousand/+80 thousand/+70 thousand barrels per day [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corp. (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical & Electrical Equipment Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - Data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review 2.1 Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance - Information on the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector, including the rise and fall of various sub - industries and the trend of the sector and the CSI 300 index, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [11][18] 2.2 Sector Listed Company Performance - The table shows the rise and fall of major upstream companies in the sector, including companies such as CNOOC Limited, PetroChina Company Limited, and Sinopec Corp., with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [22][23] - The valuation table of listed companies shows the stock price, total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of companies such as CNOOC Limited, PetroChina Company Limited, and Sinopec Corp. from 2024A to 2027E, with data sources from Wind and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [24] 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.1 Crude Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price spreads of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oil, etc., as well as the relationship between the US dollar index, copper price, and WTI crude oil price, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [26][29] 3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Studies the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly destocking speed of US commercial crude oil and the rise and fall of Brent oil, and the inventory of US total crude oil, commercial crude oil, strategic crude oil, and Cushing crude oil, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [44][45] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of US crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets and their relationship with oil prices, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [57][58] 3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery utilization rate, and Shandong refinery utilization rate, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [61][63] 3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US crude oil import, export, and net import volume, as well as the import, export, and net import volume of US crude oil and petroleum products, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [66][68] 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 4.1 Refined Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price spreads of crude oil and domestic/US/European/Singapore gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene, as well as the domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale - retail price spreads, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [73][76] 4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Analyzes the inventory of US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, and Singapore gasoline and diesel, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [99][100] 4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [115][116] 4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption and the number of US passenger airport security checks, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [117][118] 4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene import, export, and net export volume, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [126][127] 5. Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [139][141]

汽车周观点： 7月第1周乘用车环比-30.2%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月13日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 ➢本周复盘总结：七月第一周交强险39.8万辆，环比上周/上月周度-30.2%/+12.1%。 ➢本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SW汽车零部件(+0.1%) >SW汽车（-0.4%）> SW摩托车及 其他(-0.4%) >SＷ商用载货车(-0.6%) >SW乘用车(-1.4%) >SW商用载客车(-1.8%) 。本 周已覆盖标的蔚来-SW、吉利汽车、沪光股份、理想汽车-W、中国汽研涨幅前五。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发华为汽车业务核心竞争力剖析、宇通客车H1销量点评。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）理想i8发布会定档7/29；2）赛力斯预计2025H1实现归母净利 润27-32亿元，实现扣非后归母净利润22.3-27.3亿元。其中Q2单季度预计归母净利润 中值为22亿元，同环比分别+57%/+195%；单季度扣非中值为20.9亿元，同环比分别 +58%/+430%；3）零跑新C ...