【勘误版】结构性"降息"先行、新年贷款 "开门红"可期 ——2025 年度金融数据及国新办新闻发布会点评 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20260116 （1）社会融资规模：2025 年 12 月新增社融 22,075 亿元，同比少增 6,462 亿元；2025 年全年新增社融 35.6 万亿元，同比多增 3.34 万亿元；截至 2025 年末，存量社融同比增长 8.3%。从社融结构来看，2025 年 12 月 人民币贷款和企业债券融资推升社融，当月社融口径人民币贷款新增 9,804 亿元，同比多增 1,402 亿元；企业债券融资新增 1,541 亿元，同比 多增 1,700 亿元，并且大幅超过近 3 年同期均值-2,596 亿元的水平；政 府债券融资新增 6,833 亿元，同比少增 1.07 万亿元；股票融资新增 559 亿元，同比多增 75 亿元，再度恢复同比多增的走势；2025 年 12 月三项 表外融资减少 505 亿元，同比少减 694 亿元，其中信托贷款和企业票据 融资继续超过季节性表现，未贴现票据融资减少 1,492 亿元，同比多减 162 亿元，表内贴现强度下降。从 2025 年 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-01-16 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20260115：中国出口"惧怕"人民币升值吗 人民币汇率或并非出口回升的因，而是出口回升的果 宏观点评 20260115：春季躁动后半程，行业如何轮动？ 风格已经出现轮动：进入 2026 年后，军工（商业航天）继续强势，汽车 （机器人）、综合、公用事业走强，TMT 板块更集中于传媒、电子、计算 机，前期领涨的有色、机械、化工、通信、电力设备板块进入蓄势状态。 关注长短期产业趋势基调：十五五规划中现代产业体系的建设目标新增 航天强国、交通强国，强调集成电路、工业母机、高端仪器、基础软件取 得决定性突破，产业趋势仍在持续。短期产业趋势进展不断突破，AI 应 用方向逐步验证下游需求，商业航天方向卫星部署加速，回收技术验证在 即，存储价格持续上涨，算力产业链技术取得突破，量产型人形机器人近 期也在 CES 亮相。 结合 2020-2021 年经验和产业趋势：参考 2020 年 10 月市场调整结束后的启动板块白酒、半导体、医药等行业的走势，反弹空 间较大的板块仍然是前期上涨的主 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the machinery equipment industry, particularly focusing on companies with high export potential and strong growth prospects in overseas markets [3][10]. Core Insights - The report identifies three major opportunities for machinery equipment exports: the Belt and Road Initiative driving demand in resource-rich countries, strong demand recovery in Europe and the US, and the shift from capacity export to technology export in high-end manufacturing [3][4][5]. - Key companies recommended for investment include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic in the engineering machinery sector, and Jerry Holdings and Neway in the oil service sector [3][4][5][67]. Summary by Sections Belt and Road Initiative - Investment in oil, gas, and mineral resources in resource-rich countries is accelerating, driving demand for domestic equipment and expanding global market share [3]. - The engineering machinery sector is expected to benefit from rising prices of non-ferrous metals and increased capital expenditure by mining companies, leading to higher demand for high-margin excavators [3][10]. European and American Demand - The report highlights a recovery in overseas production capacity and macroeconomic recovery, focusing on high-quality targets with significant exposure to European and American markets [4]. - Key recommendations include leading Chinese hand tool exporter Juxing Technology and companies in the industrial forklift sector such as Hangcha Group and Anhui Heli [4]. High-End Manufacturing Export - The shift from capacity export to technology export is emphasized, with Chinese equipment manufacturers leveraging their advantages to enhance export ceilings [5]. - Companies involved in the production of optical module equipment, lithium battery equipment, and photovoltaic equipment are highlighted as key players, with specific recommendations for firms like Meiwai and Aotewi [5]. Engineering Machinery Export - The report anticipates a new upward cycle for overseas engineering machinery demand starting in 2025, driven by recovery in global demand and increased capital expenditure in mining and infrastructure [10][11]. - Key companies with established overseas operations and competitive advantages in mining and large infrastructure projects are expected to benefit significantly [10][11]. Oil Service Market - The Middle East is identified as a core market for oil service companies, with high certainty for growth due to stable capital expenditure and strong demand [67][69]. - Recommended companies include Jerry Holdings, which has a comprehensive international certification system and strong project execution capabilities, and Neway, which has a significant presence in the aftermarket service sector [67][69].

长江电力（600900） 2025 年度业绩快报点评：发电量稳增带动全 年业绩提升，红利价值彰显 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 78,144 | 84,492 | 85,882 | 86,827 | 87,609 | | 同比（%） | 13.48 | 8.12 | 1.64 | 1.10 | 0.90 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 27,245 | 32,496 | 34,167 | 35,865 | 36,431 | | 同比（%） | 14.83 | 19.28 | 5.14 | 4.97 | 1.58 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.11 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.47 | 1.49 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 24.09 | 20.19 | 19.21 | 18.30 | 18.01 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to raise concerns about its impact on China's exports in 2026, as higher prices could weaken competitive advantages[1] - Since 2018, the sensitivity of China's exports to exchange rate changes has decreased, with "technical barriers" becoming the main competitive strength over "price advantages" due to product upgrades[1] - The proportion of RMB settlements in international trade is gradually increasing, which is expected to further reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on exports[1] Group 2: Historical Review - Historical data shows that during the RMB appreciation cycles from December 2016 to April 2018 and from May 2020 to March 2022, export growth remained stable, recovering from -6.3% to over 10% and from -3.5% to 13.4%, respectively[2] - Export recovery often precedes RMB appreciation by about one quarter, indicating that rising exports may contribute to RMB appreciation rather than the other way around[2] Group 3: Factors Reducing Impact of RMB Appreciation - The actual effective exchange rate of the RMB has decreased to approximately 88.6% as of November 2025, down 16.7% from its peak in March 2022, enhancing the price competitiveness of exports[2] - The RMB's purchasing power in international markets has increased due to appreciation, benefiting imports and reducing reliance on depreciation for export competitiveness[2] - The share of labor-intensive exports is declining, while the proportion of intermediate and capital goods exports is increasing, reflecting a shift towards more technology-intensive products[2] Group 4: Trade Settlement Trends - In 2024, RMB cross-border payments for goods trade reached approximately 12.4 trillion yuan, a 15.9% increase year-on-year, with RMB settlements accounting for 27.2% of total cross-border payments, up 2.4 percentage points from 2023[2] - The RMB settlement ratio is significantly increasing in trade with emerging markets, particularly in regions like ASEAN and Africa, where growth rates of 21.8% and 35.9% were recorded, respectively[2] Group 5: Risk Considerations - There are uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies, which could negatively impact exports if additional tariffs are imposed[2] - A potential downturn in the U.S. economy could adversely affect global demand, posing risks to China's export performance[2]

Market Trends - The spring market rally from December to February historically shows an average increase of 16%-18% for the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index from 2010 to 2025[1] - The current spring rally is considered to be in its latter half, with a potential for a price increase lasting about one month before entering a consolidation phase[2] Industry Performance - Growth and technology sectors have a win rate exceeding 80%, with average excess returns over 3%[12] - High-end manufacturing follows, with average excess returns above 2%, while sectors like computing, communication, and electronics show average excess returns exceeding 4%[12] Sector Rotation - As of 2026, strong sectors include military (commercial aerospace), automotive (robots), and utilities, while previously leading sectors like non-ferrous metals and machinery are in a consolidation phase[3] - The focus should be on sectors with unchanged industrial trends but relatively lower recent gains, such as lithium batteries, energy storage, humanoid robots, innovative drugs, and AI hardware[32] Risks - Market sentiment can change rapidly, leading to accelerated contraction in trading volume[34] - Potential risks include slow progress in technological breakthroughs, tightening global liquidity due to changes in overseas market expectations, and increased geopolitical risks[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment in the engineering machinery sector [1]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector is entering a recovery phase, with strong performance in both domestic and export markets. The sector's revenue is expected to accelerate, driven by increased demand and improved profitability [5][11]. - The annualized return of the GF Engineering Machinery ETF is reported at 75.03%, significantly outperforming competitors, showcasing its strong upward capture ability [2]. - The report highlights that the engineering machinery sector exhibits a much higher annualized return compared to the construction sector, with returns nearly three times higher despite similar volatility levels [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The engineering machinery sector has shown a comprehensive recovery in 2025, with domestic excavator sales increasing by 19.6% year-on-year from January to October. The sector's revenue grew by 12% in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][11]. - Profitability has improved, with net profit for the sector reaching 261 billion yuan, a 23% increase year-on-year [20][21]. 2. Domestic and Export Market Predictions for 2026 - Domestic excavator demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of over 30% from 2025 to 2028, with a peak sales volume of 250,000 units expected by 2028 [32]. - The export market is anticipated to enter a new upward cycle in 2026, driven by a potential easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate overseas demand [32]. 3. Profitability and Cost Efficiency - The report notes that the sector is experiencing a scale effect, with fixed costs being diluted as production increases, leading to enhanced profitability [5][11]. - Major companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion have reported improvements in their net profit margins, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [5][11]. 4. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the importance of capital availability in driving sales, particularly in the context of government funding for infrastructure projects [39]. - The competitive landscape remains stable, with no significant increase in competition, although the demand structure is heavily influenced by the types of excavators being sold [21][36].

东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-01-15 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260114：扰动结束后，美国 Q1 通胀料将反弹——2025 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评 核心观点：2025 年 12 月美国总体 CPI 持平预期，核心 CPI 不及预期， 从分项看，后者主要来自二手车价格下跌、电信商价格战对相关商品和服 务价格的拖累、季节性因子，这三者更多是短期扰动，我们预计其给通胀 的负面影响难以持续，大类资产也因此部分回吐数据发布之时的宽货币 交易。向前看 26Q1，需要关注在财政与货币的短期宽松脉冲与季节性因 素影响下，美国增长与通胀数据超预期偏强的风险，这将进一步压缩近期 已有所回吐的 3/4 月降息预期。 固收金工 证券研究报告 [Table_FixedGain] 固收深度报告 20260114：债市逆风中的生存法则：历史调整对当前的启 示 回溯 2016–2018 年债市，可以看到当时的利率变化顺序是政策收紧，先 推动短端利率显著上行，之后在经济韧性支撑下长端利率跟随上行，熊市 的主导力量是政策端。对比当下环境，情况有 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current bond market situation cannot simply be compared to the 2017 bear market as the interest rate change sequence is different. Currently, long - term interest rates rise first due to economic recovery expectations while short - term interest rates remain stable under the central bank's liquidity - maintaining policy [36]. - Systemic bear markets usually require the combination of rising short - term interest rates and tightened liquidity. Expectations alone can only lead to a phased rise in long - term interest rates but are insufficient to trigger a full - scale bear market [37]. - Given the current low short - term interest rates and the need for economic recovery, the yield inversion between money market funds and bond funds will improve. A steeper bond yield curve allows for leveraging strategies to obtain returns [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Historical Review: Structural Anomalies from 2016 - 2018 1.1 Yield Trends - From 2016Q4, bond fund yields slowed significantly, and were outperformed by money market funds in many quarters. For example, in 2016Q4, the quarterly return of money market funds was 2.62%, while short - term pure bond funds had - 0.66% and medium - long - term pure bond funds had - 1.29%. Bond funds faced high capital costs and a flattened yield curve, resulting in large net value drawdowns [10]. 1.2 Key Policies and Major Events during the Period - In December 2016, the central bank included off - balance - sheet wealth management in the MPA's broad credit indicator, tightening non - bank institutions' funding sources. In March 2017, the CBRC launched the "Three Threes and Four Tens" special governance, shrinking bank inter - bank business and intensifying liquidity stratification. From 2016 - 2018, the central bank raised MLF and OMO rates multiple times, increasing financial institutions' capital costs. In April 2018, the asset management new regulations were officially implemented, promoting the institutionalization of de - leveraging [13]. 2. Cause Analysis 2.1 Policy Aspect: Central Bank's Open - Market Operation Interest Rate Adjustment - From 2016 - 2018, the central bank raised OMO and MLF rates, achieving a de facto interest rate hike. The 1 - year MLF rate rose from 3% in February 2016 to 3.3% in April 2018, indicating a tightening policy [16]. 2.2 Funding Aspect: Intensified Liquidity Stratification - Financial de - leveraging policies restricted inter - bank business, leading to severe liquidity stratification in the inter - bank market. The spread between R007 and DR007 widened from less than 20bp in the first three quarters of 2016 to a maximum of 71bp in March 2017, eroding bond funds' leverage arbitrage space [17][19]. 2.3 Fundamental Aspect: Strong Growth Supported Policy Implementation - In 2017, financial de - leveraging was an active policy choice during a period of strong economic fundamentals. China's GDP growth in 2017 was 6.9%, providing confidence for de - leveraging. The "high PPI, low CPI" inflation structure in 2017 created a good policy window [20][23]. 3. Relationship between Bond Yield Curve Shape and Bond Fund Yields - In 2017, the bond yield curve showed a two - stage V - shaped trend. From the end of 2016 to June 2017, it was bear - flattening due to tight funding. From July to December 2017, it was bear - deepening as strong economic fundamentals drove long - term interest rates up [25]. - The monthly returns of short - term and medium - long - term pure bond funds reflected the "first flat, then steep" change of the yield curve. From the end of 2016 to June 2017, short - term pure bond funds had lower returns, while from July to December 2017, medium - long - term pure bond funds suffered more capital losses [28]. - Bond funds' leverage ratios first decreased and then increased. In the first half of 2017, most funds reduced leverage. In the second half, short - term pure bond funds actively increased leverage as the yield curve steepened [30][32]. 4. How Did the Structural Anomaly Recover? 4.1 Policy Turnaround and Decline in Short - Term Interest Rates - In the second half of 2018, the policy shifted from de - leveraging to stabilizing growth. The central bank implemented multiple rounds of reserve requirement ratio cuts from 2018 to early 2019, releasing long - term low - cost liquidity and lowering short - term interest rates [33]. 4.2 Changes in Bond Yield Curve Shape - After the easing policy, short - term interest rates dropped rapidly, while long - term interest rates declined more slowly. The yield curve changed from bear - flat to bull - steep, reopening profit opportunities for bond funds' carry and duration strategies [34]. 5. Implications for the Current Market - The current situation is different from 2016 - 2018. The current long - term interest rate rise is driven by economic recovery expectations, and short - term interest rates are stable. The yield inversion between money and bond funds will improve, and leveraging strategies can be used [36][37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The termination of the Shenghua restructuring strengthens the company's position as a leader in iron lithium batteries, with a comprehensive strategic partnership established with CATL [8] - The company plans to issue 230 million shares at a price of 13.62 yuan per share, raising 3.175 billion yuan, with CATL acquiring a 12% stake [8] - The company is expected to accelerate the construction of high-density lithium iron phosphate capacity, enhancing its competitive advantage in the industry [8] - The company anticipates a significant increase in production capacity, reaching 800,000 tons by the end of 2026, with a market share expected to rise rapidly [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5,761 million yuan in 2023 to 57,074 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 39.90% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from a loss of 542.73 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 2,761.42 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from -0.32 yuan in 2023 to 1.62 yuan in 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 18.69 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 31.96 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 80.54 in 2024 to 11.57 in 2027, indicating improved profitability [1][9] Operational Highlights - The company is actively expanding its robotics business and has established partnerships with major automotive clients, aiming to enhance its product offerings in the electric drive system sector [8] - The company is also venturing into the low-altitude aircraft industry, with plans to produce 8,000 units per year of key components for power systems [8]