证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20260118 情绪过热后略有降温，但大方向依旧乐观 2026 年 01 月 18 日 [Table_Summary] 基金规模统计：（2026.1.12-2026.1.16） 市场行情展望：（2026.1.19-2026.1.23） ◼ 观点：情绪过热后略有降温，但大方向依旧乐观。 基金配置建议： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《特朗普的"通胀焦虑"与上中下策》 2026-01-17 《特朗普 IEEPA 关税判决前景四问》 2026-01-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 权益类 ETF 基金规模变化统计：排名前三名的权益类 ETF 类型分别为： 主题指数 ETF（311.11 亿元），跨境主题指数 ETF（62.12 亿元），行 业指数 ETF（28.42 亿元）。 ◼ 权益类 ETF 产品基金规模变化：规模增加排名前三名 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights that the global AI industry is making significant progress in enhancing AI computing power, diversifying application scenarios, and realizing monetization, indicating a shift from technological breakthroughs to scalable commercial value [2][3] - Major companies like OpenAI and TSMC are strengthening their full-stack capabilities through capital integration, with OpenAI signing a procurement agreement worth over $10 billion to build the world's largest high-speed AI inference cluster [3] - The report notes that AI applications are increasingly being integrated into retail and consumer services, with Google planning to develop Gemini as a virtual shopping assistant, allowing users to browse and purchase products within the chat interface [5][6] Industry Developments - The AI industry is witnessing multi-point breakthroughs in innovation, particularly in consumer-facing applications, as companies focus on practical implementations [2] - OpenAI's collaboration with Cerebras to deploy a 750 MW system aims to create a significant AI inference platform, emphasizing the importance of inference speed in the competitive landscape [3] - The report mentions advancements in AI models, particularly in healthcare and multi-modal generation, with companies like Google and Zhizhu making strides in open-source model iterations [4] Market Trends - The report indicates a surge in short-term capital inflow driven by profit-making effects, leading to a recent boom in AI application markets, aligning with previous bullish predictions [6] - Regulatory support is highlighted as a stabilizing factor for the market, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizing a steady approach to market operations [6] - The report suggests that the favorable conditions driving market strength remain unchanged, with expectations for a stable transition into the next phase of market activity [6] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks, including 文远知行-W (00800.HK) for its leadership in commercializing RoboX and 东土科技 (300353) for its potential benefits from the integration of industrial internet and AI [7][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI in the polyurethane industry were 17,843 yuan/ton, 14,014 yuan/ton, and 14,188 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 200 yuan/ton, 157 yuan/ton, and 290 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits also declined [2]. - In the oil - gas - olefin sector, prices of raw materials such as ethane, propane, etc. had different changes this week. The average prices of polyethylene and polypropylene increased, and the theoretical profits of different production routes also changed accordingly [2]. - In the coal - chemical industry, the average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid had slight fluctuations, and their gross profits also changed slightly [2]. - In the animal nutrition products sector, the average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine had minor changes this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking** - The Basic Chemical Index had a weekly increase of 0.9%, a monthly increase of 12.3%, a quarterly increase of 12.9%, an annual increase of 44.7%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.0% as of 2026/1/16. Different chemical companies had different performance in terms of stock price changes and earnings. For example, Wanhua Chemical's stock price decreased by 0.8% this week, while Baofeng Energy's increased by 5.2% [8]. - The report also provided data on the total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of relevant companies from 2024A to 2027E [8]. - **Industry Chain Data** - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: The average prices and gross profits of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI decreased this week. Their respective seven - year quantiles were 51%, 45%, and 65% for prices, and 71%, 49%, and 71% for gross profits [8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain**: - **Raw Material Prices**: The average prices of ethane, propane, NYMEX natural gas, Brent crude oil, and naphtha had different changes. Their ten - year quantiles also varied [8]. - **Profit Comparison of Different Routes**: The single - ton profits of different production routes for polyethylene and polypropylene had different changes compared to the previous week, the beginning of the year, and the same period last year [8]. - **C2 and C3 Plates**: The average prices and price differences between products and raw materials in the C2 and C3 plates had different changes, with different ten - year quantiles. For example, the price of ethylene decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the price difference between HDPE and ethylene increased by 353 yuan/ton [10]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain**: - **Coal - Coke Products**: The average prices of coking coal and coke decreased, and the gross profit of coke was - 47 yuan/ton, with a 3 - yuan decrease [10]. - **Traditional Coal - Chemical Products**: The average prices and gross profits of synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, and acetic acid had different changes, with different seven - year quantiles [10]. - **New Materials**: The average prices and gross profits of DMC, oxalic acid, octanol, adipic acid, caprolactam, PA6, and PA66 had different changes, with different seven - year quantiles [10]. - **Animal Nutrition Products Industry Chain**: The average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine changed slightly, with different ten - year quantiles [10]. 2. Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends**: The report did not provide specific content in the text, only the title. - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector**: The report presented the price trends of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI in China, as well as their price - spread situations [16][18][20]. - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector**: It showed the price trends of raw materials such as MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic steam coal, and naphtha, and the profit situations of different production routes for polyethylene and polypropylene [24][27][29]. - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Sector**: The report presented the price trends and gross profit situations of coal - coke products, traditional coal - chemical products, and new materials in the coal - chemical industry [40][46][51]. - **2.5 Animal Nutrition Products Sector**: It showed the price trends of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine [55][59][61].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券Ⅱ 中信证券（600030） 越秀资本拟减持中信证券 1%股份，实际影 响相对有限 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 60,068 | 63,789 | 74,811 | 77,788 | 80,400 | | 同比（%） | -7.74% | 6.20% | 17.28% | 3.98% | 3.36% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 19,721 | 21,704 | 30,055 | 31,764 | 33,442 | | 同比（%） | -7.49% | 10.06% | 38.48% | 5.69% | 5.28% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.30 | 1.41 | 2.03 | 2.14 | 2.26 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 21.60 | 19.91 | 13.85 | 13.10 | 12.44 | [Table_Tag ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the primary market, 15 green bonds were newly issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets from January 12 to January 16, 2026, with a total issuance scale of about 9.561 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.365 billion yuan from the previous week. The issuance terms are mostly 3 - year and 5 - year, and the issuers are mainly central enterprise subsidiaries, local state - owned enterprises, and large private enterprises, with most of the subject ratings being AAA and AA+ [1]. - In the secondary market, the weekly trading volume of green bonds from January 12 to January 16, 2026, totaled 64.8 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1 billion yuan from the previous week. Non - financial corporate credit bonds, financial institution bonds, and interest - rate bonds had the top three trading volumes. Green bonds with a term of less than 3 years had the highest trading volume, accounting for about 84.38%. The industries with the top three trading volumes were finance, public utilities, and transportation equipment, and the regions with the top three trading volumes were Beijing, Guangdong, and Hubei [2]. - From January 12 to January 16, 2026, the overall deviation of the weekly average trading price valuation of green bonds was not large. The discount trading amplitude was smaller than the premium trading amplitude, and the proportion of discount trading was greater than that of premium trading [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Primary Market Issuance - 15 green bonds were newly issued with a total scale of about 9.561 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.365 billion yuan from the previous week. The issuance terms were mostly 3 - year and 5 - year. Issuers included central enterprise subsidiaries, local state - owned enterprises, and large private enterprises, with subject ratings mainly being AAA and AA+. Issuers were from Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangsu. The bond types included enterprise ABS, private corporate bonds, general corporate bonds, and medium - term notes [1]. Secondary Market Trading - The weekly trading volume was 64.8 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1 billion yuan from the previous week. By bond type, non - financial corporate credit bonds, financial institution bonds, and interest - rate bonds had the top three trading volumes of 29 billion yuan, 26.5 billion yuan, and 7 billion yuan respectively. By issuance term, bonds with a term of less than 3 years had the highest trading volume, accounting for about 84.38%. By issuer industry, finance, public utilities, and transportation equipment had the top three trading volumes of 31 billion yuan, 11.8 billion yuan, and 3.4 billion yuan respectively. By issuer region, Beijing, Guangdong, and Hubei had the top three trading volumes of 21.2 billion yuan, 7.6 billion yuan, and 4.7 billion yuan respectively [2]. Valuation Deviation of the Top 30 Individual Bonds - The overall deviation of the weekly average trading price valuation was not large. The discount trading amplitude was smaller than the premium trading amplitude, and the proportion of discount trading was greater than that of premium trading. - For discount bonds, the top three discount rates were G20 Ji'an 1 (- 2.9131%), 24 Yuezu G2 (- 1.4942%), and 25 Shuineng (- 1.0577%). The main subject industries were steel, finance, and public utilities, with ChinaBond implicit ratings mainly being AA, AA+, and AAA+. The regions were mainly Shanghai, Guangdong, and Guangxi. - For premium bonds, the top three premium rates were 25 Fudi Leasing ABN001 Priority (Green) (46.9921%), 20 Yichun Venture Capital Green Bond (0.9221%), and 24 Xinyang G1 (0.9098%). The main subject industries were construction, finance, and steel, with ChinaBond implicit ratings mainly being AA, AA+, and AAA-. The regions were mainly Guangdong, Shanghai, and Hubei [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply side of the spandex industry is nearing the end of capacity expansion, and the elimination of outdated capacity is expected to improve industry prosperity [4][9] - The demand for spandex is robust due to its excellent performance and wide application, with a CAGR of 11% in apparent consumption from 2017 to 2024 [4][19] - The competitive landscape shows that China is a major producer of spandex, with a high industry concentration, as indicated by a CR5 of 84% by the end of 2025 [4][22] Supply Side Summary - As of the end of 2025, China's spandex capacity is 1.44 million tons/year, with an industry operating rate of 85% [4] - The industry has been experiencing a continuous oversupply from 2022 to 2025, with an average annual operating rate between 70%-80% [4][24] - Major spandex producers include Huafeng Chemical (400,000 tons/year), Xiaoxing Spandex (246,000 tons/year), and others, indicating a significant head effect in the industry [4][24] Demand Side Summary - Spandex is often referred to as the "MSG of textiles," significantly enhancing the performance and quality of fabrics even in small proportions [4][19] - The demand for spandex is expected to grow rapidly as its application range and blending ratio in textiles expand [4][19] Competitive Landscape Summary - China's spandex production capacity accounts for 79% of the global total, with a production capacity of 1.375 million tons in 2024 [22] - The industry is characterized by fierce competition, with many companies operating at a loss due to low overall operating rates [22][24] Price Review and Outlook Summary - As of January 15, 2026, the price of spandex in China is 23,000 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 10,864 yuan/ton [4][28] - The price of spandex has been under pressure due to oversupply, but the report anticipates a recovery in prices as outdated capacity is eliminated [27][31] Investment Targets Summary - Key investment targets in the spandex industry include Huafeng Chemical, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, and Taihe New Materials, each with varying capacities and profitability levels [33][47] - Huafeng Chemical is noted for its significant market share and cost advantages, while Xinxiang Chemical Fiber is expanding its capacity despite market fluctuations [47][56]

观点 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20260116 耐普转 02：矿山耐磨新材料领域先行者 2026 年 01 月 16 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《债市逆风中的生存法则：历史调整 对当前的启示》 2026-01-14 《周观：股债跷跷板效应凸显，宽松 基调下曲线陡峭》 2026-01-12 东吴证券研究所 1 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 耐普转 02（123265.SZ）于 2026 年 1 月 16 日开始网上申购：总发行规 模为 4.50 亿元，扣除发行费用后的募集资金净额用于秘鲁年产 1.2 万吨 新材料选矿耐磨备件制造项目。 ◼ 当前债底估值为 118.90 元，YTM 为 2.97%。耐普转 02 存续期为 6 年, 中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司资信评级为 A+/A+，票面面值为 100 元，票面 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a narrowing decline in Q4 revenue, with expectations for profit margins in 2025 to exceed forecasts [1] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, increasing them to 2.68 billion, 2.86 billion, and 3.05 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 17, 16, and 15 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 27.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.96% - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 3.19 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.58% - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is estimated at 1.23 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 14.43 [1][8] Operational Insights - In Q4, the company's overall retail revenue (excluding young segment) saw a low single-digit year-on-year decline, with offline and e-commerce channels experiencing middle single-digit and flat year-on-year changes respectively [1] - The company opened its first outdoor store and "Dragon Store" in November and December 2025, respectively, targeting new customer segments [1] - The company aims to improve profitability by closing loss-making stores and enhancing cost efficiency [1]

◼ 盈利预测与投资评级：公司为乘用车湿式纸基摩擦片国产唯一供应商， 新能源混动车系放量与产能释放并驱成长，多领域拓展渗透打开成长空 间，考虑到 2026 年起新能源汽车购置税从全额免征购置税调整为减半 征收、乘用车内卷降价及汽车行业整体需求放缓，下调公司 2025~2027 年归母净利润为 1.37/1.75/2.42 亿元（前值为 1.50/2.15/3.23 亿元），对应 最新 PE 为 34/27/19 倍，维持"买入"评级。 ◼ 风险提示：技术迭代不及预期；市场拓展不及预期；原材料价格波动。 证券研究报告·北交所公司点评报告·汽车零部件 林泰新材（920106） 2025 年业绩预告点评：混动与海外市场双轮 驱动，全年归母净利润预增 64%~86% 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 206.56 | 312.58 | 433.80 | 564.50 | 760.40 | | 同比 | 17. ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电网设备 思源电气（002028） 2025 年业绩快报点评：业绩大超预期，稳步 迈进 next level 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 12,460 | 15,458 | 21,205 | 29,560 | 39,025 | | 同比（%） | 18.25 | 24.06 | 37.18 | 39.40 | 32.02 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,559 | 2,049 | 3,163 | 4,523 | 6,059 | | 同比（%） | 27.75 | 31.42 | 54.35 | 43.01 | 33.96 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.00 | 2.62 | 4.05 | 5.79 | 7.76 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 84.66 | 64.42 | 41.74 | 29.18 | 21.79 | [Table_Ta ...