证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20250720 基于 ROE 触底逻辑下的市场上行 2025 年 07 月 20 日 ◼ 政策催化："反内卷"优化供给侧格局，催化 ROE 触底预期 从政策出台背景来看，2023Q2 以来，我国 GDP 平减指数转负，工业品及 消费品价格水平表现承压。在总需求缺乏弹性、供给端产能重复建设的背 景下，企业经历供需再平衡阵痛，自发性降价竞争等现象频出，其中新兴 优质制造业矛盾突出，如光伏硅料、组件价格自 2023 年以来跌幅近 90%， 碳酸锂跌至 6 万元/吨的成本线附近。全 A 两非 ROE 由 2021Q2 的 9.6%回 落至 2025Q1 的 6.5%，供给侧结构优化的迫切性增强。 在此背景下，本轮"反内卷"政策站位高、信号明确。从去年 7 月政治局 会议首提"强化行业自律，畅通落后低效产能退出渠道"，到今年 7 月习总 书记强调"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出"，"反 内卷"顶层设计逐步清晰，政策导向持续强化，显示出中央对系统治理内 卷问题的高度重视与坚定决心。近日，从防范低空经济内卷，到监管"降 温"过度竞争的外卖市场，进一步释放高层 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20250719 二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250714-20250718） 本周（20250714-20250718）二级资本债周成交均价估值偏离幅度整体不 大，折价成交的比例大于溢价成交，折价成交的幅度大于溢价成交。 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行与存量情况： 本周（20250714-20250718）银行间市场及交易所市场无新发行二级资本 债。 截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日，二级资本债存量余额达 46,511.35 亿元，较上 周末（20250711）减少 20.0 亿元。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20250714-20250718）二级资本债周成交量合计约 2427 亿元，较 上周增加 572 亿元，成交量前三个券分别为 25 工行二级资本债 03BC （338.49 亿元）、25 农行二级资本债 01A(BC)（189.86 亿元）和 25 中 行二级资本债 01BC（153.95 亿元）。 分发行主体地域来看，成交量前三为北京市、上海市和广东省，分别约 为 1928 亿元、177 亿元和 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·半导体 半导体行业点评报告 关注 AI 算力需求快速发展，看好国产设备商 充分受益 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 看好 AI 算力需求发展：一方面英伟达恢复向中国市场供应专为其设计 的 H20 算力芯片，并同步推出全新、完全兼容的 NVIDIA RTX PRO GPU 系列产品，主要应用于智能工厂和物流领域的数字孪生 AI 场景，有望 解决高端算力卡脖子瓶颈环节；另一方面大模型调用成本大幅下降，伴 随 DeepSeek 等低成本、高性能、开源模式，带来推理芯片、训练芯片 的不断进步，推动 AI 的端侧应用和硬件发展。 ◼ 高端 SoC 测试机市场广阔，亟待国产突破：SoC 芯片的高度集成性使 其测试难度较大，例如不同功能模块间的交互测试、复杂的信号处理和 高速数据传输测试等，对测试机也提出了高要求，如需要具备多通道测 试能力、较高的测试频率、灵活的配置能力等，目前测试机以爱德万等 为主。 ◼ AI 需求带动设备供应链，先进制程持续扩产：过去训练卡基本为英伟 达独供，对应所需要的 3D 堆叠等先进 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20250719 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20250714-20250718） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20250714-20250718）绿色债券周成交额合计 523 亿元，较上周减 少 100 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为非金公司信用债、金融机 构债和利率债，分别为 256 亿元、208 亿元和 43 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债券成交量最高，占比约 88.61%，市场热度持续；分 发行主体行业来看，成交量前三的行业为金融、公用事业、交运设备， 分别为 215 亿元、135 亿元和 18 亿元；分发行主体地域来看，成交量前 三为北京市、广东省、湖北省，分别为 168 亿元、60 亿元和 40 亿元。 ◼ 估值偏离度前三十位个券情况： 本周（20250714-20250718）绿色债券周成交均价估值偏离幅度整体不 大，折价成交幅度大于溢价成交，折价成交比例大于溢价成交。 折价个券方面，折价率前三的个券为 24 康富租赁 ABN001 优先(绿色) （-1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in H1 2025, with projected revenue of 4.96 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.9%. The growth is driven by a substantial increase in the shipment of high-end etching equipment for advanced storage and logic applications [7] - The company continues to increase its R&D investment, with R&D expenses in H1 2025 expected to reach 1.49 billion yuan, accounting for 30.1% of revenue, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and product development [7] - The company has a robust order backlog, with contract liabilities reaching 3.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 162.4%, and inventory of 7.45 billion yuan, up 33.4% year-on-year [7] - The company is expanding its product offerings in etching and deposition equipment, with successful validations and repeat orders from clients for new products [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6.26 billion yuan in 2023 to 17.54 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.70% [1][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.79 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.45 billion yuan in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 50.53% in 2025 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.85 yuan in 2023 to 7.11 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [1][8] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 63.90 in 2023 to 25.62 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [1][8]

证券研究报告 国内格局演化：日系衰退，欧系稳健，自主崛起 ——车灯行业系列专题报告（二） 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 证券分析师 ：刘力宇 执业证书编号：S0600522050001 二零二五年七月十八日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心观点 投资建议：推荐自主车灯龙头企业【星宇股份】。 2 国内车灯行业当前呈现"两超多强"格局，市场份额预计仍将向头部集中。车灯是与安全相关的重要汽车零部件，同时又作为外 观件、功能件和独供件，因此车灯有着较高的行业进入壁垒，主要包括客户资源、技术研发、成本控制和质量认证等方面。高壁 垒塑造出车灯行业优秀的竞争格局，国内车灯行业当前呈现出"两超多强"的竞争格局，星宇和华域视觉市占率领先，外资中海 拉、法雷奥、马瑞利、小糸和斯坦雷同样占据一定市场份额。车灯领域后续的技术升级将进一步使市场份额向头部企业集中，小 型车灯企业在行业变革中或将逐渐落后。 中国车灯格局十年复盘：日系衰落明显，欧系整体稳定，自主龙头不断崛起。日系方面，以小糸和斯坦雷为代表的日系灯厂（日 系体系内配套为主）过去十年在中国市场整体呈现衰退趋势，其中小糸自2016年以来 ...

Macro Strategy - The report emphasizes the "lighthouse effect" of the minimum wage system, which can increase residents' income and create a spillover effect for higher income groups, thus promoting income growth for low-income individuals [1][8] - Historical data indicates that during periods of rapid minimum wage increases, the overall labor remuneration share in GDP also rises significantly, with the fastest growth occurring during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, where the average annual increase was around 13% [1][8] - Recent adjustments to minimum wage standards in various regions, such as Fujian and Guangdong, have seen increases ranging from 7.6% to 14.2% [1][8] - The report suggests setting quantitative growth targets for minimum wage similar to those established during the "12th Five-Year Plan" to ensure it grows at a rate above economic growth [1][8] - It advocates for a differentiated minimum wage system that considers industry, occupation, and skill levels to better reflect the intrinsic value differences of various jobs [1][8] Fixed Income - The report discusses the launch of the first batch of Sci-Tech bond ETFs, which is expected to enhance the demand for Sci-Tech bonds and improve market liquidity [2][9] - The issuance of these ETFs is anticipated to attract long-term capital from institutional investors, aligning with policy goals to invigorate investments in the technology innovation sector [2][12] - The report highlights that the underlying bonds in the ETFs are primarily AAA-rated, indicating high credit quality, and the majority of issuers are state-owned enterprises [10][12] Company Analysis Jinlong Automobile (600686) - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 25 billion, 26.8 billion, and 28.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9%, 7%, and 7% respectively [4][14] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 4.4 billion, 6.4 billion, and 8.3 billion yuan, indicating substantial growth of 182%, 45%, and 28% year-on-year [4][14] - The report notes that the company has seen a significant increase in export sales, with a 52.4% year-on-year increase in H1 2025 [13][14] Kaile Co., Ltd. (301070) - Kaile is recognized as a leading enterprise in the HVLS fan industry, with a strategic shift towards AI applications expected to drive future revenue growth [5][15] - The company anticipates revenues of 3.73 billion, 4.50 billion, and 5.84 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 0.42 billion, 0.72 billion, and 1.07 billion yuan respectively [5][15] - The report highlights the company's collaboration with Henan provincial investment groups to expand AI applications in various sectors, including healthcare and governance [5][15] Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) - The company expects a net profit of 36.0 to 44.0 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.6% to 86.6% [6][17] - The demand for AI computing power is driving significant growth in the optical module market, with expectations for continued strong capital expenditure from major cloud service providers [6][17] - The report indicates that Zhongji Xuchuang is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for 800G and 1.6T technologies, with a leading position in the optical module sector [6][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance of the first batch of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs has landed, empowering the continuous expansion of the Sci - tech Innovation Bond market. As of July 15, 2025, 10 Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs have raised a total of 28.988 billion yuan, accounting for about 96.63% of the planned fundraising scale cap [1][13]. - Through the analysis of the underlying component bonds of the tracking indices of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs, it is found that there are differences in the term structure, issuer structure, coupon rate, and yield distribution among the three major indices, and the excess spread of Sci - tech Innovation Bonds varies due to the issuer's qualifications [1]. - The issuance of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs will increase the allocation demand for Sci - tech Innovation Bonds, improve market liquidity, and attract medium - and long - term funds into the Sci - tech Innovation Bond market [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Batch of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs Issued, Empowering the Continuous Expansion of the Sci - tech Innovation Bond Market - On June 18, 2025, the first batch of 10 Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs were submitted collectively, approved on July 2, and scheduled for issuance on July 7. Among them, 6 products track the CSI AAA Sci - tech Innovation Corporate Bond Index, 3 track the SSE AAA Sci - tech Innovation Corporate Bond Index, and 1 tracks the SZSE AAA Sci - tech Innovation Corporate Bond Index [1][13]. - As of July 15, 2025, these 10 ETFs raised a total of 28.988 billion yuan, accounting for about 96.63% of the planned fundraising scale cap [1][13]. 3.2 Analysis of the Component Bond Structure of the Tracking Indices of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs - **Component Bond Quantity and Scale**: As of July 4, 2025, the number of component bonds of the CSI, SSE, and SZSE AAA Sci - tech Innovation Corporate Bond Indices was 825, 678, and 146 respectively, with outstanding scales of 107.4735 billion yuan, 93.0605 billion yuan, and 14.183 billion yuan respectively [1][16]. - **Remaining Term Structure**: The remaining term structures of the three indices are basically the same, mainly short - and medium - term within 5 years. The Shenzhen index has a relatively lower component bond term center, and the term distribution of the index component bonds is consistent with that of the existing Sci - tech Innovation Corporate Bonds [1][17]. - **Issuer Structure**: The issuers of the component bonds of the three indices are all AAA - rated with high credit quality, mainly central and local state - owned enterprises. The Shenzhen index has a more diverse issuer structure in terms of enterprise nature and industry distribution [1][22]. - **Coupon Rate Distribution**: The coupon rates of the component bonds of the three indices are mainly concentrated in the 2 - 2.5% range. The coupon rate center of the Shenzhen index has shifted upward [1][26]. - **Yield Distribution**: The yield distribution of the CSI and SSE indices is more balanced, while the yield of the Shenzhen index shows significant polarization [1][28]. - **Excess Spread**: The excess spread of perpetual and non - perpetual Sci - tech Innovation Bonds of the top ten issuers by market value in the index component bonds is between - 2.45 and 23.94BP and between - 7.78 and 32.97BP respectively. The compression space of the excess spread of the Shenzhen index is relatively large [1][29]. 3.3 Impact of the Issuance of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs on the Sci - tech Innovation Bond Market - **Increase Allocation Demand for Sci - tech Innovation Bonds**: Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs have advantages such as low fees, high position transparency, and efficient trading mechanisms. With the issuance of the first batch of ETFs, the scale is expected to continue growing, bringing about allocation demand for component bonds. The market of Sci - tech Innovation Corporate Bonds may have started [1][34][35]. - **Improve Market Liquidity of Sci - tech Innovation Bonds**: The launch of ETFs will strengthen the market liquidity of Sci - tech Innovation Corporate Bonds, facilitate investors' participation, compress liquidity premiums, and improve pricing efficiency [1][8][38]. - **Attract Medium - and Long - Term Funds into the Sci - tech Innovation Bond Market**: The launch of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs can match the allocation needs of institutional investors such as social security funds, pensions, and insurance funds, attracting medium - and long - term funds into the market [8][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance forecast for H1 2025 indicates a continued upward adjustment in profit margins, with cost reduction and efficiency improvement effects becoming evident [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.16 billion yuan in H1 2025, with Q2 2025 net profit projected at 690 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42% and a year-on-year increase of 48% [1] - The company has successfully turned around its non-recurring net profit for the first time in five years, with a projected non-recurring net profit of 120 million yuan for H1 2025 and 220 million yuan for Q2 2025 [1] - The company’s sales volume in Q2 2025 is expected to increase due to export demand, with total sales of 11,500 units in Q2 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.19% [1] - The integration of three subsidiaries and a new management team is anticipated to lead the company into a new development phase, enhancing internal efficiency and accelerating profit release [1] Financial Forecasts - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 24.987 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.80% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 4.442 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 181.62% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at 0.62 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.60 [1] - The company’s revenue for 2026 and 2027 is projected to be 26.757 billion yuan and 28.497 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.443 billion yuan and 8.274 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a special rectification campaign against illegal fuel sales, which is expected to enhance the concentration in the refining and sales sectors [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has set a target to limit the national crude oil processing capacity to 1 billion tons by the end of 2025, with over 30% of capacity exceeding energy efficiency benchmarks [2]. - The report notes that as of 2023, there are approximately 123,000 gas stations in China, with private stations accounting for 52% of the total, selling about 25% of the country's refined oil consumption [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the ongoing reforms in the oil and petrochemical sector, including the tightening of consumption tax regulations and the push for industry standardization and scale [7]. - It mentions that the total refining capacity in China is approximately 955 million tons per year, nearing the regulatory limit [7]. Regulatory Developments - The report outlines the government's plans to enhance fiscal reforms, which include improving local tax management and increasing local financial autonomy [2]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the legal businesses will benefit from a fairer competitive environment due to the crackdown on illegal operations, potentially leading to increased market concentration [7]. - It emphasizes the significant role of private gas stations in the market, highlighting their contribution to overall fuel sales [7].