关税影响不在于通胀,而在于经济是否会 亨退 2025年3月14日 事件点评 77 浏览量 7 | | | | 执业证书编号:S1480519090001 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱: kangmy@dxzq.net.cn | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 事件: | | | 美国 2 月 CPI 环比 0.2%,预期 0.3%, 前值 0.5%;同比 2.8%,预期 2.9%,前值 3%。 | | | 核心 CPI 环比 0.2%,预期 0.3%,前值 0.4%;同比 3.1%,预期 3.2%,前值 3.3%。 | | | 主要观点: | | 视 关证券股份有限公司证券 报 H 4、 标普 500 仍处于泡沫(22%),特朗普政策不确定性下降后或有入场机会。 5、美十债下限维持 3.7~3.9%,上限维持 4.8~5%。 能源价格的下降主导了通胀和核心通胀的回落。住所价格（环比 0.3%）贡献了几乎一半的通胀(0.2%)、汽油(-1.0%)和 机票价格（4.0%）的下降对冲了部分住所价格的上升,后两项价格与原油价格几乎同步。核心通胀方面,上行的有医疗(0.3%)、 二手车(0. ...

DONGXING SECURITIES 东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2025年第11周 P1 首席周观点：2025 年第 11 周 2025 年 3 月 13 日 首席观点 周度观点 刘航 | 东兴证券电子行业首席分析师 S1480522060001，021-25102909，liuhang-yjs@dxzq.net.cn 电子行业：人形机器人专题（一）：传感器的技术路径、竞争格局与产业重构 Q1：人形机器人传感器是什么？传感器是机器人感知物理世界的窗口，也是机器人迈向智能 化的基础。包含各类视觉传感器、听觉传感器、触觉传感器、力传感器等，用于感知环境， 获取关于周围世界的信息。视觉传感器是具有图像采集处理、数据传输能力的功能专门化嵌 入式视觉系统，可实现目标识别定位、尺寸测量、缺陷检测、条码识别等功能；人形机器人 的听觉传感器主要为麦克风，包括声音接收器、信号处理器和音频处理软件等部分；力传感 器主要为力矩传感器，其可以在各种旋转或非旋转机械部件上对扭转力矩感知进行检测，将 扭力的物理变化转化为精确电信号；触觉传感器可覆盖于人形机器人三维载体表面，实现与 环境接触力、温度、湿度、震动、材质、软硬等特性的检 ...

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. February CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year it rose by 2.8%, against an expectation of 2.9%[4] - Core CPI also rose by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year it increased by 3.1%, compared to an expectation of 3.2%[4] - Energy prices significantly contributed to the decline in both inflation and core inflation, with housing prices contributing nearly half of the total inflation increase[6] Group 2: Tariff Impacts - The primary concern regarding tariffs is not inflation but the risk of economic recession, as tariffs can lead to temporary price increases or permanent cost hikes[7] - Tariffs affect not only import prices but also increase prices of domestic competitors and complementary goods, complicating the assessment of their impact on the economy[7] - A comprehensive tariff strategy raises the likelihood of a global trade war, disrupting global supply chains and potentially doubling the effective tariff costs on certain products[7] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The risk of economic recession increases with the breadth of tariffs imposed, as a wider coverage leads to greater negative impacts on the economy[8] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain between 3.7% and 5%, with a low probability of breaching 5% in the short term[8] - The S&P 500 index is currently overvalued by 22% compared to its long-term trend, indicating potential market corrections due to policy uncertainties[10]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴策略】指数维持慢牛 轮动机会增加（20250312） 指数维持震荡走势，逐步进入业绩验证期。随着两会行情逐步结束，市场关 注点有望重回基本面，两会报告指明了全年的发展方向，各种题材性热点也 进一步升温，特别是人工智能和机器人等题材不断发酵，市场的结构性行情 愈演愈烈，市场总体成交仍维持较为活跃的态势。但随着两大核心板块不断 走高，整体波动性也逐步上升，市场对于低位股补涨的预期也愈发强烈，随 着 3 月下旬开始逐步进入上市公司年报和季报披露期，市场更加关注基本面 和业绩，一些题材性个股随着业绩披露会有回调压力，市场整体表现将会更 加均衡，市场结构性不会只集中在两大核心热点上，以有色、化工为代表的 周期性品种开始逐步走强，红利类个股表现有望重回升势，整体指数表现我 们认为将会更加良性。 重视消费和顺周期板块投资机会。消费是我们一直强调看好的方向，两会期 间对消费的关注也是逐步加码，我们认为，未来消费政策逐步落地对基本面 的影响会逐步显现，现在阶段布局消费正当其时，消费股有较大未来经济恢 复的看涨期权价值，下跌空间有限上涨弹性较大，上周开始的白酒脉冲行情 已经开始展 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the index maintains a slow bull market with increasing rotation opportunities, as the market gradually enters an earnings verification period [4][9] - The focus of the market is expected to shift back to fundamentals after the Two Sessions, with various thematic hotspots, particularly in artificial intelligence and robotics, gaining traction [4][10] - The overall market turnover remains active, but volatility is increasing as core sectors rise, leading to stronger expectations for low-priced stocks to rebound [4][10] Group 2 - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in consumer and cyclical sectors, suggesting that the focus on consumption during the Two Sessions has intensified [5][10] - It notes that consumer stocks have significant upside potential with limited downside risk, and recent trends in the liquor sector indicate a positive shift [5][10] - The cyclical sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, are showing signs of recovery, with price rebounds indicating market interest [5][10] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest maintaining a focus on large technology sectors while gradually increasing allocations to consumer and cyclical stocks [6][11] - The report advises balancing investments with fundamental considerations, avoiding underperforming companies, and highlights the potential of the robotics sector due to its healthy performance and valuation [6][11] - It also points out that while the artificial intelligence sector has high valuations, there is uncertainty regarding earnings realization [6][11] Group 4 - The report provides data indicating that the overall market has experienced slight adjustments, with the exception of the CSI 1000 index, which showed a small increase [12][13] - It highlights that the best-performing sectors include non-ferrous metals and military industry, along with strong performances in computing, machinery, and media [15][16] - The report notes that market turnover rates remain high, indicating good trading activity [18][20] Group 5 - The valuation levels across sectors are generally reasonable, with notable increases in the technology sector [24][26] - The report includes a detailed valuation distribution table, showing various sectors' price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios, indicating a diverse valuation landscape [25][26]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the index maintains a slow bull market with increasing rotation opportunities, as the market gradually enters an earnings verification period [4][9] - The focus of the market is expected to shift back to fundamentals after the Two Sessions, with various thematic hotspots, particularly in artificial intelligence and robotics, gaining traction [4][10] - The overall market turnover remains active, but volatility is increasing as core sectors rise, leading to heightened expectations for low-priced stocks to rebound [4][10] Group 2 - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in consumer and cyclical sectors, suggesting that the focus on consumption during the Two Sessions has intensified [5][10] - It notes that consumer stocks have significant upside potential with limited downside risk, and recent trends in the liquor sector indicate a positive shift [5][10] - The cyclical sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, are showing signs of recovery, with price rebounds indicating market interest [5][10] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest maintaining a focus on large technology sectors while gradually increasing allocations to consumer and cyclical stocks [6][11] - The report advises balancing investments with a focus on fundamentals during the upcoming earnings announcements, while avoiding underperforming companies [6][11] - It highlights that the robotics sector is more likely to gain market recognition due to healthier valuations and performance, while the artificial intelligence sector faces higher uncertainty [6][11] Group 4 - The report provides data indicating that the overall market experienced slight adjustments, with the exception of the CSI 1000 index, which showed a small increase [12][13] - It identifies that the best-performing sectors include non-ferrous metals and military industry, along with strong performances in computer, machinery, and media sectors [15][16] - The report notes that market turnover rates remain high, indicating good trading activity [18][20] Group 5 - The valuation levels across sectors are generally reasonable, with notable increases in the technology sector [24][26] - The report includes a detailed valuation distribution across various sectors, highlighting significant differences in price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios [25][26]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴食品饮料】促消费仍是经济工作主要抓手，关注食品饮料底部机会 （20250311） 在今年政府工作报告中，2025 年要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩 大国内需求等政策方向成为今年政策的重心之一。政策的乐观表态为后续消 费复苏奠定了基础，建议关注食品饮料底部机会。 今年政府工作报告提出，促进消费和投资更好结合，加快补上内需特别是消 费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。政策围绕制定提升消 费能力、增加优质供给、改善消费环境专项措施等三个方向延伸，释放多样 化、差异化消费潜力，推动消费提质升级。多渠道促进居民增收，推动中低 收入群体增收减负，完善劳动者工资正常增长机制。同时，计划安排超长期 特别国债 3000 亿元支持消费品以旧换新。 政策的乐观表态为后续消费复苏奠定了坚实基础，我们认为今年政府工作报 告在消费方面的刺激政策全面且到位，推动收入增长特别是中低收入群体的 减负，对基础消费有较为显著的作用。改善消费环境的措施对于改善居民消 费预期有较大的帮助。同时直接部署消费基金落实消费补贴也将对消费形成 直接的促进。 虽然从基本面角度食品饮料整体消费 ...

中谷物流（603565.SH）：行业低谷彰显 盈利韧性，高分红具备较强吸引力 中谷物流是我国内贸集装箱龙头企业。公司成立于 2003 年，通过持续整合全 国范围内的铁路及公路资源，形成了"公、铁、水"三维物流网络，建立了以 水路运输为核心的多式联运综合物流体系。 公司物流基础设施完善，航线网络覆盖面广 公司长期深耕内贸集运行业，已经通过港口、航线、联运线路的有机结合，构 筑了全方位、多层次的多式联运综合物流体系。港口方面，目前公司的航运网 络覆盖全国 25 个沿海主要港口与超过 50 个内河港口，并采取"双核战略" 对港口资源进行有效配置；航线方面，公司航线通达全国沿海及各江河流域的 主要水系，形成了以"京津冀经济带"、"长江经济带"、"粤港澳大湾区"以及 "一带一路南北海上大通道"构成的"三横一纵"的大海运、大物流体系；公 司铁路快线网则与水路网络形成了有效的互补，强化了公司物流网络的覆盖， 有效提升了公司竞争力。 公司业务规模稳健扩张，利润率高，盈利稳定性强 公司控制运力及营收水平在内贸集装箱航运领域排名第二，仅次于中远海控旗 下的泛亚航运。公司持续强化规模优势，订购的 18 艘 4600TEU 大型内贸 ...

Group 1: Mechanical Equipment Industry - The government work report highlights three main lines for the mechanical equipment industry: consumer scenarios, embodied intelligence, and construction machinery [1] - The report indicates that ice and snow consumption could generate an annual equipment investment increment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan over the next five years, assuming each of the 333 prefecture-level cities builds two small and medium-sized ice and snow venues [2] - The application scenarios for robots are becoming clearer, with local governments focusing on areas such as municipal sanitation, emergency rescue, and medical assistance, which are expected to promote the commercialization of humanoid robots [3] Group 2: Non-Bank Financial Industry - The government work report introduces several favorable policies for the non-bank financial industry, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, aimed at promoting the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of supporting technology enterprises through financial measures, which is expected to enhance the overall financing environment for these companies [9] Group 3: Coal Industry - The coal sector has experienced a significant decline, with a cumulative drop of 13.72% from the beginning of 2025 to February 28, 2025, underperforming the broader market [15] - The report suggests that coal prices may stabilize in the second quarter of 2025 due to supply-demand imbalances and policy interventions aimed at controlling production [16] - The coal sector's valuation remains low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.77, indicating potential for revaluation as the market shifts focus towards shareholder returns [17] Group 4: Consumer and Retail Industry - The government work report outlines ten key measures to boost consumption, emphasizing the need to enhance domestic demand and improve the quality of consumption [20] - The report highlights the importance of service consumption, particularly in areas such as health, elderly care, and childcare, which are expected to see significant growth due to policy support [21] - The report also points to the potential for innovative consumption driven by AI and digital technologies, which could reshape consumer experiences and service efficiency [22] Group 5: Transportation Industry - The government work report stresses the need to lower logistics costs and promote a unified transportation market as key objectives for the transportation industry [25] - The report addresses the issue of "involution" in the transportation sector, advocating for high-quality development to combat price competition and improve service quality [26] - The emphasis on low-altitude economy and smart transportation as new growth engines indicates a shift towards innovative business models in the transportation sector [28]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴机械】机械行业：政府工作报告从提振消费、未来产业、有效投资三 维度利好机械设备行业（20250306） 事件：3 月 5 日，十四届全国人大三次会议在京开幕。《政府工作报告》提 出实施提振消费专项行动；培育壮大新兴产业、未来产业；积极扩大有效投 资。对应到机械设备行业，建议关注消费场景、具身智能、工程机械三条主 线。 冰雪消费高景气或每年带来设备增量超 200 亿元。政府工作报告提到落实和 优化休假制度,释放文化、旅游、体育等消费潜力，其中冰雪消费旅游近年来 需求旺盛，相关设备投资将带来增量市场。考虑到高端和大型滑雪场建设需 要特定的地形和气候作为自然资源禀赋，未来增长空间有限。高端和大型客 群主要以旅游度假为目的，其客群到访具有较强的季节性，集中在节假日到 访。而室内和中小型滑雪场客群为初学者或体验型客户，在掌握一定滑雪技 能后，成为大型高端滑雪场稳定客源。随着国内人均收入的提升和国家政策 的扶持，预计未来各地室内和中小型滑雪场数量将持续增长。我国目前有 333 各地级行政区，假设未来 5 年内每个地级区建设 2 家滑冰场或滑雪场，假设 每个中小型滑雪场或滑 ...