Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent imposition of tariffs by the U.S. is expected to significantly impact the export of energy storage batteries from China, while the direct export of power batteries and new energy vehicles will be less affected [2][4] - In 2024, China's export scale of power and energy storage batteries is projected to reach 197.1 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, where power and energy storage batteries account for 68% and 32% respectively [2] - The tariffs on lithium batteries exported to the U.S. have reached high levels, with power batteries facing a tariff of 82.4% and energy storage batteries at 64.9% [3] - The U.S. battery industry has a high degree of reliance on foreign supply, providing an opportunity for Chinese companies to maintain competitive advantages in the industry [5] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The recent tariffs will lead to a significant increase in export prices for batteries, with energy storage batteries being more affected than power batteries [3][4] - The U.S. is still the largest export market for Chinese lithium batteries, accounting for 25% of total exports [2] Market Dynamics - The U.S. domestic battery production capacity is limited, creating a gap of over 20 GWh, which Chinese companies can fill [5] - The technology for lithium iron phosphate, a key material for energy storage batteries, is primarily controlled by Chinese manufacturers, giving them a competitive edge [5] Future Outlook - Chinese lithium battery companies are actively expanding overseas to mitigate the impact of tariffs, establishing production capacities in regions with lower tax rates [5][10] - The overall market for energy storage batteries is expected to grow, with significant demand projected in the coming years [4]

行 业 研 究 轻工制造行业：关税加征影响出口 产业链，等待关税政策明朗 事件：2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税" 的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸易伙 伴征收更高关税。2025 年 4 月 4 日，中方对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34%关税。 "对等关税"对我国及东南亚国家同步加征关税，为轻工出口业务带来不确定 性。特朗普展示的图表显示，对中国产品加征 34%关税，对越南产品征收 46% 关税，对泰国产品征收 36%关税，对印度尼西亚产品征收 32%关税，对马来 西亚产品征收 24%关税。本次关税加征幅度及范围均超过我们的预期。轻工企 业近年有加速东南亚产能的布局，但本次关税的"无差别攻击"，对企业出口 直接贸易及转口贸易均有较大影响，轻工对美出口业务短期面临不确定性。考 虑到轻工为劳动密集型产业，难以回流至人均收入高的美国，我们认为仍需发 展中国家承担生产，后续关税政策或仍有变化可能，如财联社消息：特朗普与 越南、印度和以色列的代表就关税谈判进行了交谈，越南等国存在降关税可能 性。但我们认为即使越南等国与美国达成降税协议 ...

行 业 研 究 纺织服装：短期加征关税有所影响， 长期纺织企业制造优势仍在 事件：美国时间 4 月 2 日特朗普宣布对等关税相关政策并签署总统行政令。 美国将对所有进口商品加征基础 10%的全面关税。部分国家与地区将面临更 高税率。对等税率更高的经济体包括欧盟（20%）、日本（24%）、韩国（25%）、 中国大陆及港澳（34%）、中国台湾（32%）、印度（26%）、泰国（36%）、越 南（46%）、缅甸（44%）等。 我国纺织业为出口导向型，在全球产业链中有着举足轻重的地位。我国是全球 纺织品和服装出口绝对龙头。根据世界贸易组织数据，2023 年全球纺织品出 口总额约为 3240.84 亿美元，其中来自于中国的纺织品出口金额为 1343.36 亿美元，占全球纺织品出口总额的 41.45%；2023 年全球服装出口总额约为 5480.46 亿美元，来自于中国的服装出口金额 1647.43 亿美元，占全球服装出 口总额的 30.06%。除了国内直接出口，头部的服装和鞋制造商海外产能占比 较高，如鞋制造商华利集团产能 100%在境外（主要在越南），服装制造商申洲 国际员工数有 57%位于越南和柬埔寨，而这些国家和地 ...

行 业 研 通信行业：中美关税博弈，通信零 部件国产替代进程有望加速 事件：4月2日，美国总统特朗普宣布，美国对所有贸易伙伴设立10% 的"最低基准关税"，其中对中国征收的"对等关税"税率为34%，对华总 关税将达54%。4月4日，中国宣布对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在 现行适用关税税率基础上加征34%关税。 点评： 美国高关税政策对国内通信光模块、物联网模组板块冲击较大，运营 商、卫星互联网、IDC、工业通信等板块影响较小。目前部分通信企业 尚未发布 2024 年年报，我们整理 2023 年通信上市企业国内收入占比 数据。2023 年通信子行业国内收入占比如下：运营商（100%）、IDC （99%）、工业通信（92%）、卫星互联网（85%）、5G 通信设备（80%）、 光纤光缆（78%）、算力设备（68%）、物联网模组（51%）、光模块（49%）。 尽管短期美国关税政策对光模块、物联网模组行业正常经营造成冲击， 但中长期看，受 AI 产业驱动，光模块、物联网模组行业成长路径确定， 建议继续关注 1.6T 光模块大规模部署进展以及 5G Redcap 模组、算 力模组应用进展。 对等关税下，部分进口依赖度较高 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the electronics sector is "Positive" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The imposition of tariffs is expected to accelerate domestic substitution and industry upgrades in China, particularly in the semiconductor sector [2][4]. - The tariffs will lead to increased costs and supply chain adjustments, prompting Chinese companies to seek alternative suppliers outside the U.S. [2]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturing process is anticipated to enter a rapid development phase due to the rising costs of imported equipment [3]. - The tariff barriers are driving structural changes in the global supply chain, with a focus on domestic production and technological iteration [4]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The U.S. has imposed a 10% baseline tariff globally, with an additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods, affecting the electronics trade significantly [1][2]. - In 2024, China's imports from the U.S. are projected to be approximately $163.62 billion, with machinery and electronics accounting for about 23.17% of this total [2]. Domestic Equipment and Semiconductor Development - The global market for semiconductor equipment is dominated by U.S. companies, which hold about 40% market share. The tariffs are expected to increase the cost of importing these critical devices [3]. - The domestic self-sufficiency rate for analog chips in China is around 15% as of 2023, and the tariffs are likely to enhance the competitiveness of local manufacturers [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the domestic electronics industry can achieve advantages through a combination of domestic substitution, technological iteration, and global collaboration [4]. - Beneficiary companies identified include Shengbang Co., Sirepo, Xidi Micro, Nanchip Technology, and others [4].

光伏行业对等关税征收点评：贸易 壁垒高悬，全球竞争加剧 ——光伏行业事件点评 事件： 4 月 2 日，美国宣布"对等关税"举措，即美国对贸易伙伴设立 10％的"最低基准 关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税，包括中国（34%）、越南（46%）、 泰国（36%）、印度尼西亚（32%）、柬埔寨（49%）、老挝（48%）、马来西亚 （24%）。4 月 4 日，中方发布系列反制措施，对原产于美国的所有进口商品， 在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。 点评： 本次加征对等关税举措与美国扶持本土新能源制造战略相契合。美国一直致力 于提升本土新能源制造产业的相对竞争力，在本次对等关税举措前，美国推出 了通胀削减法案以扶持新能源产业，同时也通过重启反规避调查等举措推升进 口产品关税，在本次对等关税之前，中国光伏行业出口美国的贸易壁垒早已高 悬。美国加征对等关税后，预计随着低成本组件供应进一步缩减，美国光伏组 件等产品的价格或将上涨，进而推升光伏电站投资成本上升，抑制短期光伏新 增装机；从长期看，对等关税的举措，与美国扶持本土新能源制造的战略相符， 或将促进美国光伏制造业的投资和发展。 加征对等关税影响小于双反，边际影响 ...

Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The copper market is experiencing downward adjustments due to recession expectations, but supply-demand tightness supports pricing resilience [1] - In 2025, global copper supply-demand structure is expected to remain tight, with a significant shortage in copper concentrate processing fees indicating potential production cuts [1] - China's refined copper production is projected to reach a record high of 13.644 million tons in 2024, benefiting from high TC long-term contract prices and strong by-product sulfuric acid prices [1] Group 2: Gold Market - London spot gold prices have risen 18% to $3,055 per ounce in 2025, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank purchases [2] - The introduction of equal tariff policies may exacerbate inflation, which could boost gold's inflation premium [5] - The gold pricing trend is expected to continue upward, with potential to reach $3,300 per ounce as market sentiment improves [5] Group 3: Rare Earth Industry - China's recent export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths are expected to lead to stronger pricing dynamics in the industry [6] - The export quota growth for rare earths in China has significantly slowed, indicating a tightening supply situation [6] - Japan's reliance on Chinese rare earth imports is highlighted, with 77% of its monthly imports coming from China, suggesting potential impacts on Japan's market [6] Group 4: Agriculture Sector - The recent U.S. tariff increases on Chinese imports, including agricultural products, are expected to raise prices and alter supply dynamics [19][20] - The agricultural sector is likely to benefit from rising domestic demand and the need for food security, prompting a shift towards domestic production [21] - Companies in the agricultural sector, particularly those involved in breeding and feed production, are recommended for investment due to their potential to capitalize on these changes [21] Group 5: Chemical Industry - The U.S. has imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese chemical exports, which may impact demand for certain products but overall effects are expected to be limited [23][24] - Specific exemptions for certain chemicals may mitigate the impact of tariffs on some sectors within the chemical industry [23] - The pricing and supply of chemical products may be affected by increased costs of imported raw materials from the U.S. [24] Group 6: Transportation Sector - The new tariffs are expected to pressure import and export freight volumes, particularly affecting container shipping and air freight [27][30] - The cancellation of tax exemptions for small packages will lead to increased costs for air freight, impacting demand [30] - There is a recommendation to focus on domestic demand and emerging markets as companies adapt to the new trade environment [30] Group 7: Machinery Industry - The new tariffs are anticipated to accelerate domestic policies aimed at enhancing productivity and innovation in the machinery sector [32][33] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise in low-altitude economy and deep-sea technology sectors as a response to tariff impacts [33] - The focus on new productivity measures may lead to increased support for industries involved in advanced manufacturing and automation [32]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. tariff policy aims to attract manufacturing back to the U.S., with significant tariffs imposed on various countries, including a 34% tariff on China [2] - The imposition of high tariffs is expected to increase trade costs globally, impacting both exporters and U.S. consumers, potentially leading to higher inflation in the U.S. [2] - The actual execution of the tariff policy remains uncertain and will depend on future negotiations between the U.S. and other countries [2] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The tariffs will directly affect container shipping and air freight, particularly on the Far East-North America route, leading to increased trade costs and reduced cargo volumes [3] - The cancellation of tax exemptions for small packages will have a short-term negative impact on air freight, as businesses may need to shift to more expensive shipping methods [3] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand sectors such as highways and railways, which are expected to benefit from increased internal consumption [8] - Companies that have established a presence in emerging markets like Southeast Asia are likely to see increased opportunities as they adapt to the changing trade landscape [8] Industry Data - The transportation industry comprises 126 companies, with a total market value of 32,036.5 billion and a circulating market value of 28,190.56 billion [5] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry is 15.99 [5]

农林牧渔行业：关税反制加码，全 面看好农业板块 2025 年 4 月 7 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 事件：4 月 3 日，美国政府宣布"对等关税"计划，其中对中国大陆加征的关 税税率为 34%。4 月 4 日，国务院关税税则委员会发布关于对原产于美国进口 商品加征关税的公告，中国将对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税 税率基础上加征 34%关税。此前，中国已从 3 月 10 日起对原产于美国的部分 农产品加征关税。 关税反制下，关注农产品涨价与农业新质生产力。正如我们在 3 月 5 日发布的 报告《农林牧渔行业：对美农产品加征关税，关注农产品涨价与粮食安全》中 进行的梳理，综合进口量和依存度，高粱、大豆、玉米和棉花受影响较大。此 次关税反制后，我国从美国进口农产品加征税率累计达到 44%/49%，从美进 口农产品完税价格进一步提升。我国近年来自美国进口农产品数量及占比逐步 下降，此次"对等关税"与我国的关税反制政策落地将进一步促使我国农产品供 应格局发生变化，对南美市场进口和国内市场供应占比将提升。短期来看，进 口成本的抬升将推升进口依存度较高的农产品价格上涨；中长期来看，贸易摩 擦加剧，粮食 ...

行 业 研 究 基础化工行业：中美互加关税对化 工品影响几何？ 2025 年 4 月 7 日 看好/维持 基础化工 行业报告 中美互加关税。当地时间 4 月 2 日，美方宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对 等关税"，其中给中国的"对等关税"税率达到 34%。4 月 4 日，中国 接连发布多项对美反制措施，包括自 4 月 10 日起，对原产于美国的所 有进口商品加征 34%关税。 对美出口方面：化工品出口至美国的占比约 12%，整体影响有限。根 据海关总署统计，2024 年我国以化学工业及其相关工业产品、塑料及 其制品为代表的化工品出口总金额约为 3707 亿美元，其中对美国出口 的金额约为 446 以美元，占比约为 12.03%。值得注意的是，此次美国 "对等关税"政策中，对于特定产品施行豁免条款，包括部分维生素、氨 基酸、农药产品等。目前来看，我们判断美国关税政策对中国出口占 比较高的化纤、轮胎等商品的需求或存在一定影响，但部分中国轮胎 企业已进行了全球化布局，受到的关税冲击可能有望相应减轻。 对美进口方面：化工品进口自美国的占比约 11.6%，部分原料或受影 响。根据海关总署统计，2024 年我国以化学工业及其相 ...