DONGXING SECURITIES 东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2025年第9周 P1 首席周观点：2025 年第 9 周 2025 年 2 月 27 日 首席观点 周度观点 张天丰 | 东兴证券金属首席分析师 S1480520100001，021-25102914，Zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn 金属行业：白银行业深度Ⅰ：全球白银供给将进入刚性低速增长新阶段 白银--兼备优良工业属性的贵金属。白银的化学符号为 Ag，源自拉丁文 Argentum，意为"浅 色、明亮"。高纯度白银外观为白色，质软，且有金属光泽，但掺杂杂质后会变硬，颜色可 能呈灰、红色。白银历史悠久，其作为货币和价值储藏手段距今已有四千多年的历史。由于 白银具有良好的电热传导特性、较高的感光性和发光性，白银被广泛应用于电子电器、感光 材料和化学化工等领域中，如光伏和摄影需求。同时，高反射率使得白银色泽明亮，叠加化 学稳定性使其易于保存，白银被广泛用于制作首饰、装饰品、银器、餐具、奖章和纪念币等。 白银储量区域集中度高，CR5 达 71%。2023 年全球白银储量合计 61 万吨，分国别观察，全 球白银储量集中度较高，CR5 达 ...

Group 1: Robotics Industry - Shenzhen government is set to release special policies for humanoid robots, aiming to support application scenarios, breakthrough key technologies, and enhance manufacturing capabilities [1][2] - The government plans to establish a 10 billion yuan fund focused on artificial intelligence and robotics, which is expected to stimulate entrepreneurship and overcome market challenges [2] - Key hardware technologies such as precision reducers and joint motors are anticipated to see accelerated breakthroughs, benefiting related companies [2] Group 2: Dairy Industry - The central government's document emphasizes the need to stabilize the dairy industry and address the challenges faced by dairy farmers, aiming to alleviate the oversupply of raw milk [8][9] - Raw milk prices have decreased by 29% since their peak in August 2021, leading to losses for dairy farmers, but the situation is expected to improve in 2024 [8][9] - The government is focusing on implementing national standards for sterilized milk, which will enhance the quality and safety of domestic dairy products [9] Group 3: Consumer Sector - The upcoming "Two Sessions" are expected to bring policies that will enhance consumer spending, particularly in the food and beverage sector [26][32] - The government is likely to support home appliance and home improvement sectors through subsidies, which will benefit leading brands [27] - The rise of domestic brands in the fashion and beauty sectors is anticipated, driven by the integration of national cultural elements and improved product quality [28] Group 4: Silver Industry - Global silver demand is projected to enter a structural expansion phase, with industrial silver demand being the primary growth driver [19][20] - The silver supply is expected to grow at a low rate, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance, with a forecasted supply gap widening from 6003 tons in 2024 to 7248 tons by 2027 [23] - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector is on the rise, driven by the transition to higher-efficiency N-type solar cells [21][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The central government's document emphasizes the need to alleviate difficulties in the dairy industry and stabilize basic production capacity, which is expected to improve the overall situation of excess raw milk in the dairy industry this year [1][2] - The price of raw milk peaked in August 2021 and has since decreased by 29%, leading to losses for upstream dairy farming enterprises. The decline in milk prices is attributed to an increase in raw milk supply outpacing consumption growth [1][2] - The compound annual growth rate of milk production in China from 2019 to 2023 is 7%, while the revenue growth rate of dairy products has turned negative from 2021 to 2023, with respective rates of 7.9%, -6.5%, and -2.4% [1][2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The central government's focus on the dairy farming industry's challenges and the call to stabilize production capacity is expected to lead to a further reduction in the number of dairy cows this year, alleviating the pressure on both upstream and downstream sectors of the dairy supply chain [2][10] Market Performance - In the past week, the dairy sector saw a price increase of 1.64%, while other food sectors also experienced positive growth [12] - Key companies in the dairy sector showed varied performance, with top performers including Zhuangyuan Pasture (11.85%) and China Shengmu (10.86%) [16] Regulatory Changes - The government has modified the national standard for sterilized milk, which will no longer allow the use of reconstituted milk, marking a significant shift in the domestic sterilized milk market [11][2] - The implementation of these standards is expected to enhance the quality of domestic sterilized milk products [11] Future Outlook - If the demand for dairy products can recover alongside macroeconomic improvements, the profitability of dairy companies is likely to increase [2][11]

Group 1 - The report highlights the upcoming "Two Sessions" and the expectation for policies to boost consumption, particularly through the "Three-Year Action Plan for Optimizing the Consumption Environment (2025-2027)" [1] - The home improvement sector is expected to benefit from policies supporting consumption upgrades, particularly in smart home and renovation areas, with a focus on top brands due to their compliance and financial strength [2] - The textile, apparel, jewelry, and cosmetics sectors are poised to benefit from the rise of domestic brands, with an emphasis on quality improvement and cultural integration as key drivers for growth [3] Group 2 - The service consumption sector has significant growth potential, particularly in health care, education, and cultural tourism, with a focus on improving service quality across various industries [4][7] - The agricultural sector is expected to focus on rural revitalization, food security, and agricultural technology, with an emphasis on high-quality agricultural production and innovation [8][12] - The food and beverage industry is anticipated to see a boost in consumption driven by policy support, particularly in the restaurant sector, as travel and shopping experiences improve [9] Group 3 - The silver industry is entering a phase of structural expansion, with global silver demand projected to grow from 37,918 tons in 2024 to 40,287 tons by 2027, driven primarily by industrial demand [21][24] - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating consumption could reach 8,156 tons by 2027 [23] - The automotive sector's demand for silver is also expected to increase, with projections of 2,926 tons by 2027, driven by the growth of electric and hybrid vehicles [22] Group 4 - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area of focus, particularly in artificial intelligence, future industries, and domestic innovation, with government support expected to drive growth in these areas [26][27] - The banking sector is projected to maintain stable profitability, with net interest margin pressures expected to ease, and a focus on credit demand from government and state-owned enterprises [29][35]

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver demand has entered a structural expansion phase, with industrial silver demand being the main driver, expected to reach 22,110 tons in 2024, accounting for 58% of total demand [2][7] - The total global silver demand is projected to grow from 37,918 tons in 2024 to 40,287 tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 2%, driven primarily by industrial applications, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicle sectors [2][8] - The supply of silver is expected to grow at a low rate, from 31,915 tons in 2024 to 33,039 tons by 2027, resulting in a widening supply-demand gap, which is projected to increase from 6,003 tons in 2024 to 7,248 tons by 2027 [8][9] Group 2: Industrial Demand Drivers - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to see an increase in silver consumption, with projected usage reaching 7,560 tons in 2025, 7,934 tons in 2026, and 8,156 tons in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 4.8% to 2.8% [3][7] - The new energy vehicle industry is also expected to contribute significantly to silver demand, with projected consumption of 2,566 tons in 2025, increasing to 2,926 tons by 2027, showing a growth rate of 4.5% to 12.5% [7][8] Group 3: Market Trends - The silver market is experiencing a continuous expansion, with industrial silver consumption being the core driver, while photography demand is expected to decline, particularly in East Asian developing countries [7][8] - The demand for silver jewelry and silverware is expected to remain stable, with India continuing to dominate the market [7][8] - The overall silver supply-demand structure is expected to remain tight, with the supply gap widening, indicating a potential for price increases in the future [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically the silver sector, indicating a structural expansion phase in global silver demand [2]. Core Insights - Global silver demand is entering a structurally expanding phase, driven primarily by industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors [4][7]. - The supply-demand balance for silver is expected to remain tight, with a projected supply gap widening from 6003 tons in 2024 to 7248 tons by 2027 [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Silver - The global silver supply is projected to grow from 31,915 tons in 2024 to 33,039 tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 1.2% [4][15]. - The report emphasizes the resilience and elasticity of global silver consumption, predicting a continued tight supply-demand state [4][15]. 2. Industrial Silver - Main Driver of Demand Growth - Industrial silver demand is expected to reach 22,110 tons in 2024, accounting for 58% of total silver demand [5][16]. - From 2019 to 2024, global silver demand is projected to grow from 31,241 tons to 37,918 tons, with industrial silver demand contributing 87.3% of this increase [5][17]. - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to drive silver demand significantly, with consumption expected to reach 7,217 tons in 2024 [6][22]. 3. Photography Sector - The photography sector is experiencing a structural decline, with demand expected to decrease from 812 tons in 2024 to 780 tons by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of -1.2% [32][33]. 4. Silver Jewelry and Silverware Demand - India dominates the global silver jewelry and silverware market, accounting for approximately 47% of total demand [34][36]. - Despite fluctuations, the demand for silver jewelry in India is expected to rise by 5% in 2024, while silverware demand is projected to increase by 8% [36][38]. 5. Supply-Demand Gap - The report forecasts that the silver supply-demand gap will widen from 6,003 tons in 2024 to 7,248 tons by 2027, indicating a persistent tight market [8][30].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is entering a new bull market cycle, driven by policy reversals and improving supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of a weak economic recovery and stabilization in the real estate sector [3][4] - The report outlines a structural slow bull market in 2025, characterized by three phases: policy bottom, market bottom, and fundamental improvement, with key performance verification points in March-April and July-August 2025 [4][5] - The index is expected to stabilize around 3200-3300 points, with potential fluctuations of 10% downwards and at least 15% upwards, indicating a trend towards a gradual upward movement [5] Group 2 - Torch Electronics (603678.SH) is highlighted as a leading enterprise in the special MLCC market, with a clear second growth curve and a focus on high-end military and civilian applications [13][14] - Huagong Technology (000988.SZ) is recognized for its advantages in optical modules, with a strong product matrix and technological foresight, driving rapid growth in its connectivity business [18][19] - Longxin Technology (688047.SH) is noted for its short-term performance pressure but is expected to have long-term growth potential, particularly in the AI and information technology sectors [23][26] - Placo New Materials (300811.SZ) is entering a strong growth phase, with significant revenue increases driven by its chip inductor and metal soft magnetic powder businesses [28][30] - Longbai Group (002601.SZ) is positioned as a leader in the titanium dioxide industry, with integrated advantages and a focus on resource layout, anticipating a recovery in profitability as market demand improves [36][37] - Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) is projected to maintain stable growth in 2025, with strategic adjustments in product offerings and a focus on price stability [39][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the large consumption industry [2][29] Core Insights - The upcoming "Two Sessions" are expected to bring policies that will boost consumption, particularly through the "Three-Year Action Plan for Optimizing the Consumption Environment (2025-2027)" [3] - The home furnishing sector is anticipated to benefit from policies supporting product upgrades and subsidies, especially for leading brands [3] - The rise of domestic brands in textiles, apparel, jewelry, and cosmetics is highlighted, with a focus on enhancing the image of "Made in China" and promoting national cultural elements [4] - There is significant growth potential in service consumption, particularly in health, education, and cultural tourism, with an emphasis on improving service quality [5] - The integration of AI in consumption is expected to create new consumer scenarios, enhancing both online and offline retail experiences [15] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report indicates that the home furnishing sector will benefit from policies aimed at product quality and brand enhancement, with a focus on smart home and renovation subsidies [3] Textiles and Apparel - The report emphasizes the trend of national brands gaining market share, driven by improved product quality and the integration of national cultural elements [4] Service Consumption - The report outlines the need for improved service quality across various sectors, including elderly care, childcare, and tourism, which are expected to see increased demand [5] AI and New Consumption - The report discusses the potential of AI to create innovative consumer experiences, particularly in retail and tourism, as technology continues to evolve [15]

Group 1: Company Overview and Technology Integration - The company, 科锐国际, is a leading technology-driven human resources solution provider that has successfully integrated the DeepSeek-R1 AI model to enhance recruitment efficiency, particularly in the mid-to-high-end recruitment sector [1][2] - The integration of AI technology is expected to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and innovate service models within the human resources industry, positioning the company to adapt to and lead industry changes [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Business Growth - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.546 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.77%, driven by improved demand in the recruitment market [3] - The company reported a net profit of 135 million yuan, a decrease of 10.96% year-on-year, primarily due to challenges in its Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas operations [3] - The flexible staffing business continues to grow, with 234,376 placements made, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase, and the company maintains a strong expansion trajectory despite a weak macroeconomic environment [3][4] Group 3: Industry Opportunities and Market Trends - The human resources outsourcing industry is poised for significant growth due to demographic changes and rapid industrial shifts, with increasing reliance on flexible staffing to reduce labor costs [3][7] - The government’s support for the human resources service industry, as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlights the sector's importance in modern service industries [3][7] Group 4: Future Projections and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.397 billion, 13.1 billion, and 14.772 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits expected to reach 201 million, 248 million, and 302 million yuan respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20, 17, and 14 for the years 2024 to 2026, maintaining a "recommended" rating for investment [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry, indicating an expected performance that is stronger than the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [2][19]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the technology sector in 2025, highlighting key areas of focus such as artificial intelligence, future industries, and domestic innovation (信创) [1][6]. - The rapid development of the artificial intelligence sector is driven by the introduction of domestic large models like DeepSeek, which are gaining attention for their cost-effectiveness and capabilities [6]. - Local governments are increasingly supportive of AI development, with specific targets for growth in the digital economy and AI applications outlined in various government work reports [6]. - Future industries are being prioritized by multiple provincial governments, with initiatives aimed at fostering innovation and establishing a modern industrial system [6]. - The report identifies significant opportunities in the信创 sector, particularly in the context of international tensions and the need for domestic technological self-reliance [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer industry comprises 268 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of approximately 48,223.53 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 39,934.8 billion yuan [2]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 524.67 [2]. Key Focus Areas - **Artificial Intelligence**: The report suggests focusing on computing infrastructure, large models, and their applications as key investment areas [6]. - **Future Industries**: It highlights the importance of sectors such as humanoid robots, commercial aerospace, biomanufacturing, new materials, and future energy [6]. - **信创 Sector**: The report recommends monitoring opportunities in domestic chip and server production, as well as foundational and industrial software [6].