Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including NAURA, SICC, SUMCO, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Mitsubishi Electric, and Infineon [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in local production and demand for silicon wafers and SiC substrates in China, with local coverage expected to increase from 41% to 54% for 12-inch silicon wafers and from 80% to 87% for 6-inch SiC substrates by 2027E [1][6]. - Pricing trends indicate a decline in average selling prices (ASP) for 8-inch silicon wafers at a CAGR of -10% from 2024 to 2026E, while 12-inch wafers are expected to decline at -6% CAGR during the same period. SiC substrate ASP is projected to decrease from US$443 in 2024 to US$384 in 2026E [1][6]. - Capacity expansion is notable, with 12-inch silicon wafer capacity expected to grow at a CAGR of 21% from 2024 to 2027E, significantly outpacing the 3% CAGR for 8-inch silicon wafers. SiC substrate capacity is also set to expand at 26% and 96% CAGR for 6-inch and 8-inch substrates, respectively [1][6]. - The report anticipates a consolidation in the industry, with the top three Chinese silicon wafer suppliers projected to cover 36% of domestic demand by 2027E, up from 26% in 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections China TAM - The total addressable market (TAM) for silicon wafers in China is projected to grow from US$1.999 billion in 2021 to US$4.511 billion by 2030E, with a notable increase in shipments from 36,962k units in 2021 to 103,570k units by 2030E [37]. - The SiC substrate market is expected to grow from US$197 million in 2021 to US$2.770 billion by 2030E, driven by rising EV penetration and SiC adoption rates [39]. - The GaN devices market is projected to expand from US$66 million in 2021 to US$1.611 billion by 2030E, supported by applications in EVs, data centers, and consumer electronics [42]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Local suppliers' capacity expansion in silicon wafers is primarily driven by logic and memory clients, while SiC substrate capacity is expanding due to increased adoption in EVs and fast charging technologies [43]. - The report notes that local suppliers are expected to cover 75% of SiC substrate demand in China by 2025E, increasing to 84% by 2027E [6][39]. - The demand for SiC and GaN is anticipated to replace IGBT in high power and high frequency applications, with SiC penetration rates projected to reach 75% in EVs by 2030E [52]. Pricing Trends - The ASP for silicon wafers is expected to decline, with 8-inch wafers decreasing at a CAGR of -10% and 12-inch wafers at -6% from 2024 to 2026E [1][6]. - SiC substrate pricing is also expected to narrow, making SiC MOSFETs more competitive against silicon IGBTs [1]. Industry Consolidation - The report indicates a trend towards consolidation in the silicon wafer industry, with the top three suppliers expected to significantly increase their market share in China by 2027E [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Tesla Inc. with a 12-month price target of $285, indicating a potential downside of 18.3% from the current price of $348.68 [16][19]. Core Insights - The launch of Tesla's robotaxi operations is seen as a significant step towards addressing the autonomous vehicle (AV) rideshare market, with an estimated market size of approximately $7 billion in the U.S. by 2030 [13]. - Initial user feedback on the robotaxi rides has been largely positive, highlighting smooth driving experiences, although some navigation issues were reported [4][6]. - The comparison with Waymo indicates that Tesla's operational area and service hours are currently more limited, which may affect its competitive positioning in the AV market [7][10]. Summary by Sections Robotaxi Launch Performance - Initial rides have shown a good degree of drive smoothness, with users noting features like a customer support button and personalized preferences [4][6]. - A navigation error was reported where a vehicle incorrectly used a left turn lane, raising concerns about the technology's readiness [6][10]. Comparison with Waymo - Tesla's robotaxi operates in a smaller area and has limited hours (6 am to midnight) compared to Waymo's 24/7 service in a larger operational area [7][10]. - Pricing for Tesla's rides is set at a flat fee of $4.20, while Waymo's pricing varies like traditional Uber rides [7]. Scaling and Future Outlook - The presence of a Tesla employee in the vehicle and the reported navigation issues suggest that scaling will be slow in the near term [10]. - Regulatory developments will be crucial for the speed of scaling, with Texas recently signing a bill requiring permits for robotaxi operations [11]. - The report includes a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis for Tesla's robotaxi business, indicating a wide range of potential value per share depending on scaling and margin differentiation [14][16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) decreased to +4.3% month-on-month annualized seasonally adjusted in May from +4.6% in April, indicating a slight slowdown in economic activity [7] - The weakening in CAI was primarily driven by the manufacturing sector, suggesting challenges in this area [12] - The import-implied domestic demand proxy indicates largely stable growth in recent months, reflecting resilience in domestic consumption [9] - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) eased in May, mainly due to foreign exchange depreciation against a trade-weighted basket, which may impact liquidity conditions [27][24] - The report anticipates a faster pace of government bond issuance in the coming months, with an additional RMB1 trillion quota expected to be approved [36] Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Indicators - The CAI fell to +4.3% in May, down from +4.6% in April, indicating a deceleration in economic momentum [7] - Manufacturing and construction growth proxies both declined in May, highlighting sector-specific weaknesses [13] Domestic Demand - The import-implied domestic demand proxy suggests stable growth, indicating that domestic consumption remains resilient despite external pressures [9] Financial Conditions - The FCI eased in May, primarily driven by FX depreciation, which may affect overall economic liquidity [27][24] - The growth impact of FCI impulse is expected to turn positive from Q2 onwards, suggesting potential recovery in economic activity [12] Government Policy - The report notes a slight tightening in the domestic macro policy proxy in May, driven by a narrower fiscal deficit, which may influence future economic stimulus measures [35] - An increase in government bond issuance is projected, with expectations of an additional RMB1 trillion quota to be approved [36]

Investment Rating - The report indicates an upgrade for truckers, suggesting a lessened probability of recession and a resilient consumer [12]. Core Insights - The inbound traffic from China to the US has shown slight sequential downticks of -7% for vessels and -4% for TEUs, indicating a potential moderation in the China surge [1][3]. - Year-over-year growth for laden vessels from China to the US accelerated to the high teens, despite the recent sequential decrease [3][19]. - The report outlines two potential scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge ahead of a 90-day tariff pause or a slowdown in activity/orders due to uncertainty [6][9]. - The report suggests that if the economy does not fall into recession and tariff issues stabilize, retailers may face inventory shortages leading to a surge in orders in the second half of 2025 [9]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Trade Patterns - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that the data can be volatile but informative over a multi-week basis [4][5]. - The recent data indicates that traffic from China to the US is outpacing that of Asia, ex-China, with a +16% year-over-year increase for TEUs [3][25]. Freight Demand and Container Rates - Container rates have shown a sequential drop of -2%, potentially foreshadowing a demand drop post the initial surge from China [3]. - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles increased by +23% sequentially, reflecting the volatility of shipper decisions [37]. Economic Outlook and Inventory Trends - The report highlights that logistics managers' inventory levels are expanding upstream while compressing downstream, indicating a potential mismatch in supply and demand [68][73]. - The Logistics Managers Index shows higher inventory costs, reflecting increased storage costs as inventory builds before moving to consumers [74]. Port Activity and Shipping Volumes - Major ports in the US experienced a -10% year-over-year decline in volumes, with a significant drop of -22% sequentially from April to May [53][59]. - The report notes that the Big Three ports (LA, Long Beach, Oakland) are seeing a strong relationship between inbound volumes and TEU growth from Asia [58][61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a market neutral carry strategy preference for Asia credit, indicating a stable outlook despite geopolitical tensions [6][10]. Core Insights - The China Property High Yield (HY) sector has shown a total return of 14.3% in 2025, reflecting a recovery from previous oversold conditions rather than fundamental improvements in the property market [10][11]. - Urban demand for new properties in China is projected to remain slightly below 5 million units per year, which is 75% lower than the peak of 20 million units in 2017 [5][10]. - The restructuring of China property developer debts is expected to be a gradual, multi-year process unless there is a significant policy shift [11][17]. Summary by Sections Asia Credit Overview - Asia credit spreads remained stable despite rising geopolitical tensions and oil price fluctuations, with a preference for maintaining carry strategies [6][10]. - The report highlights that Asia has consistently generated the best Sharpe ratios in Emerging Market Investment Grade (EM IG) credit, supported by strong technicals [4][7]. China Property Sector - Recent positive micro news includes Seazen Group's issuance of a USD 300 million bond and Moody's positive outlook revision for the company [10]. - The cleanup of debts in the China property sector is ongoing, with total debt outstanding for property developers stabilizing around RMB 19 trillion since 2021 [11][17]. - The report emphasizes a positive stance on China BBB and BB rated property companies, as policymakers aim to mitigate systemic tail risks [5][17]. Market Performance - The ICE-BAML Asia Dollar China Property HY index's performance indicates a rebound, but the report cautions that this is not indicative of a fundamental recovery in the physical property market [10][11]. - The report forecasts that primary market gross floor area (GFA) sold will decline by 8% in 2025 and 6% in 2026 before stabilizing [17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on China's export resilience, highlighting strong growth in exports, particularly to emerging markets [2][3]. Core Insights - China's exports have demonstrated surprising strength, achieving double-digit growth since Q4 2023, driven by factors such as front-loading of export orders and trade re-routing [2][3][4]. - The report emphasizes the shift of China's export flows from developed markets to emerging markets, particularly ASEAN, which has become a key trading partner [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Export Growth Dynamics - Real exports from China have shown double-digit year-over-year growth since Q4 2023, with significant contributions from emerging markets [2][3]. - Front-loading of export orders has played a crucial role in maintaining high export levels, particularly in anticipation of US tariffs [5][6]. Trade Patterns and Destinations - Exports to ASEAN accounted for 16% of China's total exports in 2024, surpassing exports to the US, indicating a strategic shift in trade routes [2][3][4]. - The report notes that strong trade growth with major emerging economies has been a significant contributor to China's export strength over the past decade [2][3]. Sectoral Analysis - Exports of vehicles and electrical machinery to emerging markets have risen sharply, driven by supply chain diversification and increasing local demand for electric vehicles [2][3][4]. - The report highlights a transition in China's export product mix from traditional goods to new sectors such as electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells [26][35]. Impact of US Tariff Policies - US tariff policies have induced front-loading and trade re-routing, which have helped stabilize China's overall export growth despite a decline in US-bound exports [5][6][18]. - The report estimates that cumulative front-loading of US-bound exports during Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 was around 30% of trend-implied monthly export values [5][6]. ASEAN's Role in Trade - The ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement has significantly reduced tariffs, contributing to the rise in ASEAN-bound exports from China [37]. - Trade data discrepancies suggest potential transshipment of goods through ASEAN to avoid US tariffs, indicating a complex trade dynamic [39][41].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The effective US tariff rate is projected to increase by approximately 14 percentage points by 2025, which is significantly higher than the 2 percentage point increase during the first Trump administration but lower than the previously assumed 20 percentage point increase [1] - The stabilization of the tariff outlook has contributed to easing financial conditions and a reduction in policy uncertainty, leading to a revised core PCE inflation forecast of 3.4% for December 2025 and an increase in the US growth forecast to 1.25% on a Q4/Q4 basis [1] - The probability of a US recession has been reduced to 30%, although geopolitical risks, particularly regarding potential military action against Iran, could influence this outlook [2][8] Economic Indicators - Real GDP is estimated to grow by 4.1% in Q2 2025 following a contraction of 0.2% in Q1 2025, although labor market indicators suggest a moderate deceleration with job growth slowing and an increase in jobless claims [5] - Core PCE inflation is expected to show modest growth of 0.18% in May, but concerns remain regarding tariff-driven price increases, with each 1 percentage point increase in tariffs estimated to add about 0.1% to core PCE [9] - Long-term inflation expectations appear to be anchored, which may limit second-round inflation effects from tariff increases [10] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to consider a single 25 basis point cut in December 2025, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2026, although risks to this baseline are tilted to the downside due to potential labor market slowdowns [12] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is projected to implement one more cut in September, with risks remaining to the downside due to ongoing economic slowdowns [18] Fiscal Policy and Deficit - The fiscal bill currently in Congress is expected to raise the deficit to unsustainable levels, projected at 6% of GDP overall and 3% excluding interest payments, which could impact foreign direct investment and equity portfolio inflows [16][17] Global Economic Context - The Chinese economy has shown resilience despite a 34.5% year-on-year decline in shipments to the US, with overall nominal export growth at 4.8% year-on-year in May [22] - The US dollar has weakened further, with predictions of significant depreciation against various currencies, driven by high valuations and challenges in attracting capital inflows [26][28]

Investment Rating - The report indicates an increased geopolitical risk premium of $12 per barrel for Brent oil prices, reflecting a higher probability of supply disruptions due to escalating tensions in the Middle East [2][5][3]. Core Insights - The Brent oil price has risen to just under $80 per barrel, with expectations of potential price increases due to supply disruptions, particularly from Iran [3][2]. - The Polymarket prediction market shows a 52% chance that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, up from just over 30% previously [3][2]. - Two main disruption scenarios are analyzed: a reduction in Iranian oil supply and broader regional disruptions affecting oil production and shipping [9][18]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Scenarios - If Iranian oil supply drops by 1.75 million barrels per day (mb/d), Brent prices could peak around $90 per barrel [10][12]. - A scenario where oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz drop by 50% for one month could see Brent prices reach approximately $110 per barrel [15][20]. - The report anticipates that European natural gas prices (TTF) may rise closer to 74 EUR/MWh ($25/mmBtu), reflecting a higher probability of significant supply disruptions [33][34]. Geopolitical Context - The report emphasizes the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil flows transit, and the potential impact of disruptions on global energy prices [30][19]. - A hypothetical large disruption could push oil prices above $110 per barrel, given a 20% disruption to global energy supplies [30][32]. Natural Gas Market Implications - The TTF price increase since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict suggests an 11% market-implied probability of a sizable LNG supply disruption [34][35]. - A sustained disruption in natural gas supply could lead to European prices exceeding 100 EUR/MWh [37]. US Natural Gas Market - The report notes that the impact of a global LNG supply disruption on US natural gas prices would be limited due to the US being a large net exporter of LNG [39][40].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment sentiment towards global equity and fixed income funds, with significant inflows observed in the latest reporting period [4][10]. Core Insights - Global fund flows into equity funds saw a substantial increase, with net inflows of $45 billion for the week ending June 18, compared to outflows of $10 billion in the previous week. This surge was primarily driven by strong demand from US investors for US equity funds [4][10]. - Fixed income funds also experienced increased inflows, totaling $19 billion, attributed to heightened demand for aggregate-type, mortgage-backed, and government bond funds. In contrast, money market fund assets declined by $12 billion [4][10]. - Emerging markets showed positive trends, particularly with mainland China funds turning positive and Brazil continuing to attract robust inflows. Sector-wise, technology funds recorded the strongest net inflows, while financials faced the largest outflows [4][10]. Summary by Category Equity Flows - Total equity inflows amounted to $31.3 billion over the four-week period, with a significant weekly inflow of $45.4 billion on June 18. Developed markets, particularly the US, saw notable inflows, while Japan experienced outflows [10][12]. - Technology sector funds led the inflows, while financials and healthcare sectors faced significant outflows [10][12]. Fixed Income Flows - Total fixed income inflows reached $70.8 billion, with a weekly inflow of $19.2 billion. Aggregate-type and mortgage-backed funds were particularly favored, while long-duration bond funds saw outflows [10][12]. - Emerging market local bond funds attracted strong inflows, indicating a positive sentiment towards these assets [10][12]. FX Flows - Cross-border FX flows totaled $58.2 billion, with G10 currencies showing strong demand, particularly for the Korean won, which saw the largest net inflows in z-score terms [12][13]. - The report highlights subdued inflows for the US dollar, contrasting with robust inflows for other currencies like the euro and British pound [12][13].

中国新能源汽车产能扩张正在放缓，预计 2025 年将增长 250 万辆，同 比增长 13%，低于 2023 年的 550 万辆和 2024 年的 320 万辆。这种放缓 表明产能增长将逐渐放缓。 中国汽车市场依然分散，到 2024 年，前十大汽车制造商的市场份额将 不到 80%，而美国和日本等成熟市场的市场份额则超过 90%，这表明存 在整合和提高盈利能力的潜力。 由于政府刺激措施创造了远期需求，且与 2024 年相比，供应链定价压 力增加，因此 2025 年第一季度前十三家原始设备制造商的盈利能力改 善可能只是暂时的。 政府的以旧换新补贴，尤其是在 2024 年 7 月翻倍之后，显著刺激了需 求，去年的申请量达到 610 万份，表明对刺激措施的依赖程度相当高。 刺激需求在 2024 年约占汽车销量的 28%（610 万辆申请中实际销售 170 万辆），在 2025 年前 5 个月约占汽车销量的 31%（410 万辆申请中实际 销售 130 万辆），显示出持续的刺激效果。 政府的以旧换新预算从 2024 年的 1500 亿元人民币增加到 2025 年的 30 00 亿元人民币，汽车补贴从 900 亿元人民币增 ...