半导体与半导体生产设 2025 年 03 月 16 日 备行业周报、月报 [Table_Title] 订单落地刺激军工电子，FSD 国内表现不佳国产智 驾受益 ——行业周报 [Table_Main] 行业研究|信息技术|半导体与半导体生产设备 证券研究报告 重大事件 1）胜宏科技发布 25Q1 业绩预告，一季度归母净利 7.8 亿-9.8 亿元， 同比增加 272.12%-367.54%。2）鹏鼎控股发布 24 年业绩预告，营收 351.40 亿元，yoy+9.59%，归母净利 36.20 亿元，yoy+10.14%。3） 深南电路发布 24 年业绩报告，营收实现 179.07 亿元，yoy+32.39%， 归母净利 18.78 亿元，yoy+34.29%。4）英特尔的亚利桑那厂启动 Intel 18A 试产线，据传英伟达、博通已在进行测试。5）特斯拉应对小米即 将推出的 YU 7，将在 2026 年上海厂量产成本更低的 Model Y，成本 预计下降 20%。6）特斯拉 FSD 在中国表现不佳，无法充分适应中国 复杂路况，目前欲与百度合作，改进其先进驾驶辅助系统。7）优必选 推出科学研究机器人"天工行者"， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment industry [7]. Core Insights - The overseas AI chip index increased by 4.3% this week, driven by significant revenue growth from TSMC and ongoing infrastructure expansion by AI companies. Nvidia's upcoming GTC conference is expected to further boost market sentiment [1][9]. - The domestic AI chip index fell by 2.2%, with major players like SMIC and Zhaoyi Innovation experiencing declines of over 5% and 3%, respectively [1][9]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in the semiconductor sector, with power semiconductor and storage chip indices declining by 0.4% and 2.2%, respectively, indicating a sluggish market [1][9]. Market Index Summary - The overseas AI chip index saw a recovery this week, rebounding from a previous decline of 6.8% to a 4.3% increase, with TSMC reporting a 43% year-on-year sales growth in February [9][10]. - The domestic A-share chip index experienced a downturn of 2.2%, with notable declines in major companies, while only a few, like Aojie Technology, showed positive growth [9][10]. - The Nvidia mapping index surged by 7.3%, reflecting strong performance from Nvidia and its impact on related companies [10][12]. Industry Data Summary - Global industrial computer inventory levels are returning to normal, with Taiwanese IPC companies expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025 [2][21]. - The CAGR for smart watch and band panels is projected to reach 5.7% from 2024 to 2029, with a rebound in TFT LCD panel shipments expected in 2025 [2][24]. - Major semiconductor companies are forecasting a 9% decline in revenue for Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, indicating a more challenging market environment than typical seasonal fluctuations [2][26]. Major Events Summary - Shenghong Technology anticipates a net profit of 780 to 980 million yuan for Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 272.12% to 367.54% [3][34]. - Pengding Holdings projects a revenue of 35.14 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 9.59% year-on-year growth [3][34]. - Intel's Arizona plant has begun trial production of the Intel 18A process, with Nvidia and Broadcom reportedly conducting tests [3][34].

资产配置与金融工程 证券研究报告 债市承压港股吸金，关注资产风格再平衡 ——大类资产双周报（20250228-20250313） 分析师：朱定豪 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020521120002 邮箱：zhudinghao@gyzq.com.cn 分析师：汤静文 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020524060001 邮箱：tangjingwen@gyzq.com.cn 2025年3月16日 分析师：房倩倩 SAC执业资格证书编码:S0020520040001 邮箱：fangqianqian@gyzq.com.cn 分析师：黄轩辕 SAC执业资格证书编码:S0020524120001 邮箱：huangxuanyuan@gyzq.com.cn 联系人：黄雯瑜 邮箱：huangwenyu@gyzq.com.cn 联系人：王竞荣 邮箱：wangjingrong1@gyzq.com.cn 联系人：陈兆祥 邮箱：chenzhaoxiang@gyzq.com.cn 报告要点 国内宏观观点 宏观层面，节后我国市场生产活动持续处于扩张状态，部分农产品价格水平已现回升趋势。需求端，乘用车日均销售数据（当周，包括零售和批 ...

证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 每日复盘 2025 年 03 月 14 日 2025 年 3 月 14 日市场震荡走强，沪指创下年内新高 报告要点： 2025 年 3 月 14 日市场震荡走强，沪指创下年内新高。上证指数上涨 1.81%，深证成指上涨 2.26%，创业板指上涨 2.80%。市场成交额 17915.01 亿 元，较上一交易日增加 1851.03 亿元。全市场 4565 只个股上涨，797 只个股 下跌。 风格上看，各指数涨跌幅排序为：消费>金融>成长>周期>稳定>0；大盘 成长>小盘成长>大盘价值>小盘价值>中盘成长>中盘价值；基金重仓表现优 于中证全指。 分行业看，30 个中信一级行业普遍上涨；表现相对靠前的是：食品饮料 （5.44%），综合金融（4.66%），非银行金融（3.85%）；表现相对靠后的是： 钢铁（-0.54%），煤炭（-0.10%），国防军工（0.06%）。概念板块方面，多数 概念板块上涨，托育服务、乳业、机器人执行器等大幅上涨；发电机、汽车 拆解、昨日触板等板块走低。 3 月 14 日，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 以及中证 1000 等 ETF 成交额 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the smart home industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The smart home industry is expected to benefit from a combination of policy support, technological advancements, and evolving consumer demands, driving rapid growth in the sector [4][27]. - Recent government policies, including expanded subsidies for home appliances and a focus on digital economy development, are set to stimulate consumption in the smart home market [19][27]. - The shift in consumer preference from "single product intelligence" to "whole-home smart solutions" is accelerating due to rising living standards and the aging population, which is increasing demand for home care solutions [4][27]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In the past two weeks (March 3, 2025 - March 14, 2025), the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.46%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.60%. The smart home index (399996.SZ) increased by 4.65%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.68 percentage points [1][11]. - Year-to-date (January 1, 2025 - March 14, 2025), the smart home index has risen by 15.37%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 13.35 percentage points [11][14]. Industry Policy Tracking - New national subsidies have been introduced, including the inclusion of kitchen and bathroom renovation products in the subsidy program, which is expected to enhance market penetration of energy-efficient products [17]. - The "Shenzhen Action Plan for Accelerating the Development of the Artificial Intelligence Terminal Industry (2025-2026)" aims to integrate AI capabilities into various smart home products [18]. Industry News Tracking - The 2025 government work report emphasizes actions to boost consumption, develop the digital economy, and promote aging-friendly renovations, providing a supportive direction for the smart home industry [19]. - Notable collaborations, such as the establishment of a smart home IoT open platform by Haoleke, Haotaitai, and Fengzhushou, aim to enhance smart home integration and control [22]. - The MWC 2025 highlighted smart home technology as a core focus, showcasing innovations in AI and IoT that redefine future living [24][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the combination of policy support, technological innovation, and consumer demand will create a resonant effect, driving the smart home industry into a rapid growth phase [4][27]. - The expansion of subsidy categories from 8 to 12 and the focus on recycling and upgrading consumer goods are expected to further stimulate market consumption [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the smart home industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The smart home industry is expected to benefit from a combination of policy support, technological advancements, and evolving consumer demands, driving rapid growth in the sector [4][27]. - Recent government policies, including expanded subsidies for home appliances and a focus on digital economy development, are set to stimulate consumption in the smart home market [3][4][19]. - The shift in consumer preference from "single product intelligence" to "whole-home smart solutions" is accelerating due to rising living standards and the aging population, which is increasing demand for home care solutions [4][27]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In the past two weeks (March 3, 2025 - March 14, 2025), the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.46%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.60%. The smart home index (399996.SZ) increased by 4.65%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.68 percentage points [1][11]. - Year-to-date (January 1, 2025 - March 14, 2025), the smart home index has risen by 15.37%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 13.35 percentage points [11][14]. Industry Policy Tracking - New national subsidies have been introduced, including the inclusion of kitchen and bathroom renovation products in the subsidy program, which is expected to enhance market penetration of energy-efficient products [2][17]. - The "Shenzhen Action Plan for Accelerating the Development of the Artificial Intelligence Terminal Industry (2025-2026)" aims to integrate AI capabilities into various smart home products [2][18]. Industry News Tracking - The 2025 government work report emphasizes actions to boost consumption, develop the digital economy, and promote aging-friendly renovations, providing a supportive direction for the smart home industry [3][19]. - Collaborative efforts among major companies, such as the establishment of a smart home IoT open platform, are indicative of the industry's move towards integrated solutions [3][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that the expansion of the appliance subsidy program from 8 to 12 categories is expected to further stimulate the smart home market, building on the previous year's success which saw over 62 million units sold, generating nearly 270 billion yuan in consumption [4][27]. - The continuous evolution of technologies such as IoT, AI, and big data is expected to broaden the application boundaries of smart home devices, leading to the creation of high-value innovative products [4][27].

证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 每日复盘 2025 年 03 月 13 日 2025 年 3 月 13 日市场全天低开低走，煤炭板块表现活跃 报告要点： 2025 年 3 月 13 日市场全天低开低走，煤炭板块表现活跃。上证指数下 跌 0.39%，深证成指下跌 0.99%，创业板指下跌 1.15%。市场成交额 16063.98 亿元，较上一交易日减少 771.12 亿元。全市场 1519 只个股上涨，3820 只个 股下跌。 风格上看，各指数涨跌幅排序为：稳定>0>金融>消费>周期>成长；中盘 价值>大盘价值>小盘价值>大盘成长>中盘成长>小盘成长；中证全指表现优 于基金重仓。 分行业看，30 个中信一级行业普遍下跌；表现相对靠前的是：煤炭 （4.24%），钢铁（1.21%），石油石化（0.78%）；表现相对靠后的是：电子 （-2.36%），计算机（-2.17%），机械（-2.12%）。概念板块方面，多数概念 板块下跌，昨日连板_含一字、昨日连板、煤化工等大幅上涨；3D 玻璃、减 速器、同步磁阻电机等大幅走低。 资金筹码方面，主力资金 3 月 13 日净流出 915.63 亿元。其中超大单净 流出 ...

政策研究报告 证券研究报告 2025年03月13日 主要市场走势图 ● 更加积极有为的财政政策提质增效 扩内需兴科创 稳发展惠民生 2025年两会系列报告之一:政策总量篇 报告要点: ● 事件:2025年3月5日,第十四届全国人大三次会议于北京召开,国务 院总理李强作政府工作报告(以下将上述会议与同期召开的全国政协十四届 三次会议合称为"两会")。我们对政府工作报告及多个关键部委参与的经济 主题记者会中的重要政策表述进行梳理及分析。 ● 政策思路有稳有进,客观务实稳定预期 今年的两会政府工作报告中关于宏观经济调控的政策取向仍然与去年 12 月 中央经济工作会议的精神保持一致,延续了"稳中求进"总基调,但同时在具体 政策安排上,突破了传统范式,展现出创新与探索。一系列增长预期目标更多 基于当下的国内外局势,综合统筹考虑了可实现性和可持续性。在宏观政策取 向上,除了"更加积极的财政政策"与"适度宽松的货币政策"以外,工作报 告首次提出要"强化宏观政策民生导向","推动更多资金资源'投资于人'"。 我们认为,这体现了中央今年逐步转向更加注重扩大就业、促进居民增收减 负、加强消费激励,以推动经济发展与民生改善的良性循 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 政策研究报告 扩内需兴科创 稳发展惠民生 ——2025 年两会系列报告之一：政策总量篇 报告要点： 事件：2025 年 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人大三次会议于北京召开，国务 院总理李强作政府工作报告（以下将上述会议与同期召开的全国政协十四届 三次会议合称为"两会"）。我们对政府工作报告及多个关键部委参与的经济 主题记者会中的重要政策表述进行梳理及分析。 政策思路有稳有进，客观务实稳定预期 今年的两会政府工作报告中关于宏观经济调控的政策取向仍然与去年 12 月 中央经济工作会议的精神保持一致，延续了"稳中求进"总基调，但同时在具体 政策安排上，突破了传统范式，展现出创新与探索。一系列增长预期目标更多 基于当下的国内外局势，综合统筹考虑了可实现性和可持续性。在宏观政策取 向上，除了"更加积极的财政政策"与"适度宽松的货币政策"以外，工作报 告首次提出要"强化宏观政策民生导向"，"推动更多资金资源'投资于人'"。 我们认为，这体现了中央今年逐步转向更加注重扩大就业、促进居民增收减 负、加强消费激励，以推动经济发展与民生改善的良性循环。从 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 政策研究报告 扩内需兴科创 稳发展惠民生 ——2025 年两会系列报告之一：政策总量篇 报告要点： 事件：2025 年 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人大三次会议于北京召开，国务 院总理李强作政府工作报告（以下将上述会议与同期召开的全国政协十四届 三次会议合称为"两会"）。我们对政府工作报告及多个关键部委参与的经济 主题记者会中的重要政策表述进行梳理及分析。 政策思路有稳有进，客观务实稳定预期 今年的两会政府工作报告中关于宏观经济调控的政策取向仍然与去年 12 月 中央经济工作会议的精神保持一致，延续了"稳中求进"总基调，但同时在具体 政策安排上，突破了传统范式，展现出创新与探索。一系列增长预期目标更多 基于当下的国内外局势，综合统筹考虑了可实现性和可持续性。在宏观政策取 向上，除了"更加积极的财政政策"与"适度宽松的货币政策"以外，工作报 告首次提出要"强化宏观政策民生导向"，"推动更多资金资源'投资于人'"。 我们认为，这体现了中央今年逐步转向更加注重扩大就业、促进居民增收减 负、加强消费激励，以推动经济发展与民生改善的良性循环。从 ...