周一市场全天冲高回落，创业板指领涨。沪深两市全天成交额 1.18 万 亿，较上个交易日放量 474 亿。 海外市场指数 盘面上，热点快速轮动，个股涨多跌少，全市场超 3600 只个股上涨。 从板块来看，AI 硬件方向集体大涨，铜连接、PCB 等方向领涨，沃尔核 材等涨停。大消费股局部活跃，影视、服装等方向走强，金逸影视等涨 停。锂电池概念股展开反弹，宁德时代涨超 5%。 下跌方面，小红书概念股持续调整，遥望科技跌停。 板块方面，铜缆高速连接、影视、服装、电池等板块涨幅居前，电商、 小红书概念、草甘膦、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.08%， 深成指涨 0.94%，创业板指涨 1.81%。 〖资料来源：财联社 1 月 20 日收评〗 敬请参阅正文之后的免责声明 - 1 - 偶倒 0680 2025 年第 13 期，总第 1812 期（电子版） 2025 年 1 月 21 日 星期二 （本刊物为中风险等级产品，敬请投资者参阅正文后的免责声明） 一、市场分析 节前无大碍 注意避雷 沪深指数 收盘(点) 涨跌幅(%) 上证指数 3244.38 0.08 深证成指 10256.39 0.94 中小 100 6 ...

Market Overview - The overall performance of equity funds rebounded, with an average weekly return of 3.04% for equity funds[26] - The bond index experienced a pullback, with various bond indices showing negative returns except for convertible bonds[22] Major Indices Performance - The North证 50 index surged by 9.63%, while the 中证 2000 index rose by 5.70%[20] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.73%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 5.13%[20] Fund Issuance and New Listings - A total of 39 new funds were established last week, with a combined issuance scale of 328.84 billion yuan[28] - Among these, 30 funds had an issuance scale exceeding 2 billion yuan, totaling 326.80 billion yuan[28] ETF Market Expansion - The "ETF Connect" program expanded, adding 26 new products, increasing the total from 242 to 265, a growth of 9.5%[18] - This expansion includes the first inclusion of 科创 100 ETFs and gold-related investment products[19] Asset Allocation Trends - The overall equity position slightly increased by 0.73%, with an average equity position of 67.00% across funds[35] - All fund types, except balanced mixed funds, increased their equity positions[35] Risk Factors - The report highlights several risks, including statistical data deviation risk, market risk, policy risk, macroeconomic changes, and systemic risk[37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry [2][4][32] Core Viewpoints - The building materials industry is expected to see demand improvement following the Chinese New Year, driven by favorable policies in real estate and infrastructure [4][32] - The cement sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, with a national average cement price of 421.42 RMB/ton in December 2024, down 3.82 RMB/ton from November [12][32] - The glass industry is entering a weak demand phase as companies prepare for the upcoming holiday, with expectations of reduced market activity in January 2025 [33][24] - The fiberglass sector shows signs of recovery, with price increases and improved profitability due to recent price adjustments by leading companies [26][32] Cement Industry Summary - In December 2024, national cement production was 1.55 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [9] - Infrastructure investment, excluding electricity, increased by 4.4% year-on-year, providing support for cement demand [10] - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ), Huaxin Cement (600801.SH), and Conch Cement (600585.SH) [12][32] Glass Industry Summary - The flat glass production in 2024 was 1 billion weight boxes, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, but demand has significantly decreased with a 26.1% drop in housing completion area [18][30] - The report anticipates a weak market in January 2025, with companies likely to reduce production and adjust prices based on demand [24][33] - Key companies to monitor include Qibin Group (601636.SH) and Jinjing Technology (600586.SH) [33][24] Fiberglass Industry Summary - The fiberglass industry is experiencing a slight increase in profitability, with the PPI rising from 99.1 to 100.4 in December 2024 [26] - The demand for fiberglass in the automotive sector, particularly for new energy vehicles, is robust, with production reaching 1.647 million units in December, a 43.2% year-on-year increase [26][27] - Key companies to focus on include China Jushi (600176.SH) and China National Materials (002080.SZ) [26][32] Consumer Building Materials Summary - The retail sales of building and decoration materials fell by 2% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a slight decline in end-user demand [30] - The report suggests that recent favorable real estate policies may boost demand for consumer building materials, with companies like Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ) and Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ) highlighted for potential growth [30][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the steel industry [2][8] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is showing signs of recovery with prices expected to fluctuate positively in the short term due to improved market sentiment and seasonal demand [5][48] - The industry is anticipated to stabilize supported by steady demand from real estate and manufacturing sectors, while supply-side adjustments are expected to enhance industry concentration and product quality [8][55] Supply Side Summary - As of January 17, 2025, the total production of five major steel products reached 8.2406 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.93% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.65% [4][16] - The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.2448 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.05% and a year-on-year increase of 1.16% [4][16] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 84.28%, up 0.04 percentage points week-on-week and up 1.30 percentage points year-on-year [4][16] Demand Side Summary - The total consumption of five major steel products was 8.0491 million tons as of January 17, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.65% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.52% [20][21] - Daily transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 44,200 tons, showing a significant week-on-week decline of 43.03% and a year-on-year decline of 56.00% [20][21] - Monthly steel exports in December 2024 totaled 9.277 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 4.83% and a year-on-year increase of 25.87% [20][21] Inventory Summary - As of January 17, 2025, the total social inventory of five major steel products was 7.9667 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.98% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.80% [29][30] - The total factory inventory of five major steel products was 3.5483 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.30% [29][30] Cost Summary - As of January 17, 2025, the price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 786.2 RMB/wet ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.39% but a year-on-year decrease of 22.37% [44][47] - The comprehensive price index for scrap steel was 2,511.58 RMB/ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.00% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.79% [44][47] - The price index for low-sulfur coking coal was 1,406.32 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.30% [45][47] Price Summary - As of January 17, 2025, the Mysteel absolute price index for ordinary steel was 3,607.22 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.65% but a year-on-year decrease of 14.31% [48][49] - The Mysteel absolute price index for special steel was 9,484.43 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.62% [48][49] - The global steel price index was 193.4 points, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.10% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.98% [48][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the media industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous expansion of commercial application scenarios for new models such as Realtime, 4V, and Air released by Zhipu [4][24]. - The media industry is expected to benefit from advancements in AI models, particularly in multi-modal capabilities, logical reasoning, and tool utilization, leading to broader deployment opportunities for AI-native devices [4][33]. - The report suggests three main investment lines within the media sector: 1. Game and film sectors benefiting from valuation recovery and supply release, with a focus on companies like Sanqi Interactive Entertainment, Kaiying Network, Shenzhou Taiyue, and Perfect World. 2. High dividend, low valuation publishing sector, recommending companies such as Zhongnan Media, Changjiang Media, and BlueFocus. 3. Companies involved in AI large models or products [4][33]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - From January 13 to January 17, 2025, the Shenwan Media Index increased by 6.02% [8]. - The top five gaining stocks in the media sector included Guoliu United, Tianxiexiu, Yaowang Technology, Fuchun Co., and Jiayun Technology [8]. Industry News - The report discusses the collaboration between Hongguo Short Drama and various media companies to create high-quality short dramas, emphasizing content innovation and business model discussions [10][11]. - The launch of the "HarmonyOS NEXT" version of the game "Honor of Kings" is noted, which enhances user experience with high refresh rates and cross-platform compatibility [12]. Key Company Announcements - Kaiying Network announced the completion of the sale of shares held under its third employee stock ownership plan, affecting 1.47% of the total share capital [19]. - Read Culture plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2.80% due to funding needs [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential of AI models in transforming traditional industries, suggesting that the integration of AI will drive a new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the mechanical equipment industry [2][42]. Core Viewpoints - The mechanical equipment industry has shown a 5.66% increase in the index from January 13 to January 17, 2025, ranking 4th among 31 primary industries, with all sub-industries achieving positive returns [4][10]. - There are structural investment opportunities within the mechanical equipment industry, particularly in sectors such as humanoid robots, semiconductor equipment, and consumer electronics, as well as cyclical sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery, like engineering machinery and CNC machine tools [4][42]. - 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for humanoid robot mass production, transitioning from thematic investment to fundamental investment, with specific companies recommended for attention [44]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant advancements, with companies like Tesla and OpenAI making substantial commitments to increase production and develop new technologies [44]. - The engineering machinery sector reported a 16% year-on-year increase in excavator sales in December 2024, with domestic sales rising by 22.1% [47][38]. - The general equipment sector saw a 35% year-on-year increase in metal cutting machine tool production in December 2024, indicating strong demand driven by policies and economic recovery [45][46]. Key Data - The manufacturing PMI for December 2024 was reported at 50.1%, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector [12][15]. - The total sales of excavators in December 2024 reached 19,369 units, with a notable increase in operating hours, reflecting a recovery in the construction sector [47][30]. - The production of industrial robots in December 2024 was 71,382 units, marking a 36.7% increase year-on-year [22][21]. Company Focus - Recommended companies for investment include Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ), Green Harmonic (688017.SH), and others in the humanoid robot and CNC machine tool sectors [44][45]. - The report highlights the performance of key listed companies, with notable profit forecasts for companies like Iceberg Cold Chain and North Huachuang, indicating positive growth prospects [40][41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the beauty and personal care industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [2][24]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care industry is experiencing technological innovation and product diversification, highlighted by the approval of the HAIRO® hair transplant robot and advancements in new weight loss drugs. This indicates a new growth opportunity for the market [24]. - The hair health market in China has shown strong growth, increasing from 58.29 billion yuan in 2020 to 79.55 billion yuan in 2023, with projections to reach 116.54 billion yuan by 2028. The hair transplant market has also grown from 12 billion yuan in 2019 to 20.1 billion yuan in 2023, with an annual growth rate exceeding 14% [23]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The HAIRO® hair transplant robot, developed by Pangce Medical, has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) as a Class III medical device, marking a significant advancement in the hair transplant industry [4][20]. - LAE102, a monoclonal antibody for obesity treatment, has successfully completed its Phase I single-dose escalation study, showing promising safety and tolerability [11]. - Jinbo Biological's ProtYouth brand received FDA certification for three collagen serum products, emphasizing high activity, concentration, and permeability [12]. - Novo Nordisk's high-dose Wegovy showed a weight loss of 20.7% over 72 weeks in a late-stage trial, indicating effective obesity treatment [13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as: 1. Giant Biological (02367.HK) 2. Haohai Biological (688366.SH) 3. Huaxi Biological (688363.SH) 4. East China Pharmaceutical (000963.SZ) 5. Runben Co., Ltd. (603193.SH) 6. Pumen Technology (688389.SH) - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the beauty and personal care industry, anticipating a new round of growth opportunities due to ongoing innovation and service expansion [24][26]. Key Company Announcements - Tianjin Yiyi Hygiene Products Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 198 million to 225 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 91.76% to 117.91% [16]. - Guangdong Babi Biological Technology Co., Ltd. announced a new public opinion management system to enhance its response capabilities to various public sentiment issues [17].

Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3168.52 points, down 1.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9795.94 points, down 1.8% [2] - The ChiNext Index fell 1.76%, and the CSI 300 Index dropped 1.25% [2] - Overseas markets also saw declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.63%, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.63%, and the S&P 500 down 1.54% [2] - The Hang Seng Index fell 0.92%, and the Nikkei 225 dropped 1.05% [2] - In the commodity market, NYMEX crude oil rose 2.1%, while COMEX gold and silver saw slight increases of 0.22% and 0.21%, respectively [2] Market Overview - The market experienced a significant downturn last Friday, with all three major indices falling more than 1%, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing below 3200 points [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 36.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4] - Over 4800 stocks declined, with more than 100 stocks falling over 9% [4] - The robotics sector showed strength, with stocks like Construction Industry hitting the limit-up, while the semiconductor sector saw a pullback after an initial surge [4] - Consumer stocks adjusted again, with Zhongbai Group hitting the limit-down, and high-position stocks collectively declined [5] Financing Data - As of January 9, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 934.699 billion yuan, a decrease of 99 million yuan from the previous trading day [8] - The financing balance on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 878.278 billion yuan, down 383 million yuan from the previous trading day [8] - The total financing balance of the two markets was 1.812977 trillion yuan, a decrease of 482 million yuan from the previous trading day [8] Investment Advisor Opinion - The market experienced a volatile decline, with early gains in robotics and other hot sectors failing to sustain momentum as the broader market fell in the afternoon [9] - Market sentiment has returned to a low point, and with the index unable to break through after multiple days of stabilization, cautious positioning and controlling仓位 are recommended [9] Concept Highlights - The "AI+Education" competition series and the "AI+Education" competition were officially launched in Shanghai, marking a significant step in the integration of AI and education [10] - The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology is promoting the application of AI in education, with 45 educational scenarios selected and 4 model training and scenario practice bases established as the first batch of industry application demonstration bases [10] - The Shanghai government is accelerating the integration of AI and education, focusing on improving educational big model standards, data collection, and high-value application scenarios [10] Key News - The first 4D world model for robotics, EnerVerse, was unveiled by Zhiyuan Robotics, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and the Shanghai AI Lab, aiming to enhance robot action planning and future space generation capabilities [12] - The machine vision market in China is expected to reach 56.565 billion yuan by 2027, with domestic industrial machine vision companies poised to replace imports and lead in industrial智能化 transformation [12] - Baotou Steel announced a 4.7% increase in the price of rare earth concentrate for Q1 2025, signaling a positive start to the year for the rare earth market [12] Stock Market Highlights - Several stocks hit the limit-up, including Zhengtong Design (IP+AI design), Zhezhong Co (data center power distribution), and Yueda Group (high-end equipment manufacturing) [14] - Robotics-related stocks like Yijiahe and Wuzhou Xinchun also saw significant gains, reflecting the market's focus on robotics and AI [14] - Other notable limit-up stocks included Xizi Clean Energy (energy equipment manufacturing) and Meibang Co (pesticides and small-cap stocks) [14] Upcoming Events - The 2025 Global Computing Conference will kick off in Shenzhen on January 10, focusing on the East-West Computing Power initiative [15] - The 18th Asian Financial Forum will be held in Hong Kong on January 13, highlighting developments in internet finance [15] - The 2025 Boao Global Digital Consumption Conference is scheduled for January 19, with Samsung set to unveil a new AR glasses prototype on January 22 [15]

Market Analysis - The market experienced a day of fluctuating divergence, with mixed performance across the three major indices The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 024%, the Shenzhen Component Index remained flat, and the ChiNext Index rose by 036% [4][5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 9664 billion yuan, a decrease of 1819 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking the first time since September 25 last year that the trading volume fell below the trillion yuan mark [4] - In terms of sectors, cyclical stocks collectively strengthened, with oil and gas, and non-ferrous metals leading the gains The photolithography machine concept stocks strengthened in the afternoon, while the robot concept stocks showed divergent fluctuations [4] - On the downside, high-position stocks from the previous week continued to decline sharply Sectors such as oil and gas, photolithography machines, non-ferrous metals, and software development led the gains, while home appliances, e-commerce, banking, and power grid equipment sectors led the losses [5] Financing Data - As of January 10, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 931847 billion yuan, a decrease of 2852 billion yuan from the previous trading day The financing balance on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 872353 billion yuan, a decrease of 5925 billion yuan from the previous trading day The combined financing balance of the two markets was 180420 billion yuan, a decrease of 8777 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7] Investment Advisor Perspective - The indices showed divergent fluctuations, with a significant reduction in trading volume in both markets From the perspective of the Shanghai Composite Index's daily line, the index continued to decline, hitting a new low for the current adjustment phase The index is approaching the half-year line and the gap position, indicating potential short-term support and a possible rebound demand Overall, the market hotspots are scattered, and the recent active robot concept has shown divergence, with overall hotspot sustainability being weak Given the obvious signs of high-position stocks correcting, it is advisable to wait for the risk to be released before paying attention to the direction of capital return and repair [8] Concept Hotspots - Huawei's HarmonyOS ecosystem has seen significant growth, with over 20,000 native applications and services listed, more than 72 million developers, and over 1 billion ecosystem devices Huawei aims to reach 100,000 applications as a milestone for ecosystem maturity within the next six months to a year, targeting 100 million native HarmonyOS users [9] - HarmonyOS is a distributed operating system designed for the Internet of Everything, supporting multiple terminal devices such as smartphones, tablets, smart wearables, and smart screens Huawei plans to focus on enriching and maturing native HarmonyOS applications, encouraging enterprise internal office applications to develop HarmonyOS versions, and calling for more consumer acceptance and participation in the ecosystem to drive its rapid development [10] Key News - Elon Musk's Neuralink has made progress in brain-computer interface technology, with the third human subject successfully implanted with a brain chip Neuralink plans to complete about 20 to 30 implants this year The global brain-computer interface market is expected to reach $1089 billion by 2033, with China increasing its focus and policy support for the technology [12] - The UK is exploring the use of nuclear energy for its AI data center construction plan, with the first regions to be located near the UK Atomic Energy Agency in Culham The UK government will establish an energy committee to explore the use of small modular reactors for data center power supply Vantage Data Center plans to invest over £12 billion in data centers across the UK, while Nscale plans to invest $25 billion over the next three years [12] - Overseas tech giants are heavily investing in nuclear energy to address energy supply issues for AI demand Data centers with advanced AI computing chips require significantly more power, with a single rack potentially needing over 100 kW of power Companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are leading the charge in nuclear energy investments, with China's nuclear power investment expected to increase significantly in 2025 [12] Future Events - The 2025 Boao Global Digital Consumption Conference is scheduled for January 19, focusing on the digital consumption sector [15] - Samsung plans to release a new AR glasses prototype on January 22, impacting the AR glasses sector [15] - China's January PMI will be announced on January 27, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape [15] - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on January 30, affecting interest rates and exchange rates [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the media industry [2] Core Views - The media sector is expected to achieve a bottom reversal in the long term, driven by the deepening application of AI technology and the upgrading of consumer spending levels [40] - The report suggests focusing on three main lines in the media sector: ① valuation recovery and performance recovery in the gaming/film sector, ② high-dividend, low-valuation publishing sector, and ③ companies with AI large models or products [40] Key Highlights by Section Market Performance - The Shenwan Media Index fell by 2.46% from January 6 to January 10, 2025 [15] - Top gainers in the media sector include Tianyu Digital (002354 SZ), Provincial Advertising Group (002400 SZ), and Tangde Film (300426 SZ) [15] - Top decliners include Zitian Technology (300280 SZ), Jinyi Film (002905 SZ), and Shandong Publishing (601019 SH) [15] Industry News - CES 2025, held in Las Vegas from January 7 to 10, attracted over 4,500 companies from more than 160 countries, with 40% of exhibitors coming from outside the US [4][20][21] - The 2024 Guangdong Game Industry Annual Meeting, themed "Towards the New, Infinite Future," highlighted the integration of technology and culture in the gaming industry [23] - Hunan Broadcasting and Television Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Zhangjiajie Tourism Group to enhance tourism competitiveness through resource integration and technological empowerment [19] Company Announcements - Kingnet Network (002517 SZ) changed the purpose of its share repurchase plan to cancel shares and reduce registered capital [26] - Tom Cat (300459 SZ) extended its mutual guarantee relationship with Zhejiang Times Jintai Environmental Technology [26] - BlueFocus (300058 SZ) announced plans to provide guarantees for its subsidiaries' advertising business, with a total guarantee amount not exceeding 7.276 billion yuan [29] Weekly Insights - INAIR AI Space Computer, showcased at CES 2025, integrates AR and AI technologies to revolutionize mobile office and entertainment experiences [30][32][35][37] - The INAIR AI Space Computer features a 134-inch virtual screen, AI-driven computing, and innovative input methods, offering a new paradigm for mobile office work [30][32][35][37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on gaming/film companies like 37 Interactive Entertainment (002555 SZ), China Film (600977 SH), and Wanda Film (002739 SZ) [40] - High-dividend, low-valuation publishing companies such as Chinese Media (600373 SH) and Phoenix Publishing (601928 SH) are also highlighted [40] - Companies with AI large models or products are identified as key investment opportunities [40]