2025 年 10 月 31 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：49 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 49 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：户外运动、光刻胶、储能 1、户外运动主题：国家发展改革委等六部门发布通知，拟将 "北京市平谷区金海湖户外运动目的地"等 49 个地区纳入首 批高质量户外运动目的地建设名单，予以重点支持。此次建 设并非试点示范或挂牌命名，而是聚焦资源禀赋好、基础扎 实的区域，精准配套政策、资金、项目，打造标杆、以点带 面，带动全国户外运动产业提质升级，进一步满足人民群众 多层次、多样化的户外运动和美好生活需要。相关标的：三 夫户外(002780)、影石创新(688775) 2、光刻胶主题：据科技日报，近日，北京大学化学与分子工 程学院彭海琳教授团队及合 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in its AI business, with a focus on optimizing profitability [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 351 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, and a net profit of 54.47 million yuan, up 122.49% year-on-year [4][5] - The company plans to raise up to 1 billion yuan through a private placement to enhance its industrial AI capabilities [9][10] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.089 billion yuan, a 5.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 165 million yuan, up 40.34% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 51.35% and 21.37%, respectively, reflecting improvements in operational efficiency [5][6] - The comprehensive expense ratio for the first three quarters was 27.16%, a decrease of 2.35 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on three core projects: "Lingqing" AI empowerment platform, "Lingzhu" industrial software AI toolset, and "Lingzhi" embodied intelligent AI training platform, aimed at enhancing its competitive edge in the industrial AI sector [9][10] - The "Lingqing" platform aims to create an integrated platform for model and intelligent agent development, while the "Lingzhu" project seeks to integrate AI capabilities into industrial software systems [9][10] Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned in the emerging field of embodied intelligence, supported by national policies promoting the development of this industry [10] - The company has a strong technical team of over 100 professionals dedicated to advancing its AI capabilities [11] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.75 billion yuan, 2.046 billion yuan, and 2.404 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96, 1.18, and 1.45 yuan [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, with total operating income for Q1-Q3 2025 reaching 3.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 248 million yuan, up 22% year-on-year [4][8] - The company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, with a reduction in sales and management expense ratios, leading to a net profit margin of 7.03% [5][8] - The core supermarket business remains stable, with significant growth in frozen baked goods and a positive market response to high-end cream products [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, total operating income was 1.075 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 77 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year [4][6] - The company expects to see continued improvement in profitability due to enhanced cost control and the release of scale effects [7][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.92, 2.32, and 2.70 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 18, and 16 times [8][10] - Projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 15.0%, 12.3%, and 10.0% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 21.2%, 20.8%, and 16.6% [10][11] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and enhancing its market presence through new product launches and improved customer engagement strategies [6][7] - The focus on high-end cream products is expected to strengthen the company's competitive position in the market [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Ximai Food (002956.SZ) [8] Core Insights - The company's total operating revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 1.696 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 132 million yuan, up 22% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 increased by 1 percentage point to 43.75%, driven by product structure optimization and a decrease in raw material costs [2] - The launch of the medicinal food series in September received positive feedback, with a focus on market testing and consumer feedback collection in Q4 2025 [3] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, total operating revenue was 547 million yuan, a 19% increase year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 51 million yuan, up 21% year-on-year [1] - The company has locked in raw material prices for the year, and costs are expected to continue declining, which will support sustained gross margin improvements [2] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.77, 1.02, and 1.27 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28, 21, and 17 times [8] Market Position and Strategy - Ximai Food is focusing on the oat category, with a strong emphasis on the health strategy, which is progressing smoothly [4] - The online sales channel continues to show rapid growth while maintaining cost control, and the company is expected to improve channel profitability further [3] - The company is adapting its product offerings in response to market conditions, including the introduction of new high-protein oat products in various retail channels [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Tesla (TSLA.O) [11] Core Insights - Tesla's Q3 2025 total revenue reached $28.095 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, while net profit decreased by 37% to $1.389 billion [4][5] - The energy business showed significant growth with a revenue increase of 44%, while automotive revenue growth slowed to 6% [5] - The company is facing pressure on profit margins due to rising operational costs and pricing strategies, despite maintaining strong cash flow [9][11] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $28.095 billion, with automotive sales contributing $21.205 billion, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth [5][6] - Energy generation and storage revenue reached $3.415 billion, marking a 44% increase [5] - The gross margin for the quarter was approximately 18%, slightly lower than the previous year, influenced by cost pressures [5][9] Automotive Sales and Costs - Automotive sales revenue increased from $18.831 billion in Q4 2024 to $20.359 billion in Q3 2025, a growth of about 8% [6] - The cost of automotive sales was $17.365 billion, indicating ongoing cost challenges despite efforts to optimize production and logistics [6] FSD and Deferred Revenue - Deferred revenue related to Full Self-Driving (FSD) reached $3.83 billion as of September 30, 2025, up from $3.60 billion at the end of 2024, indicating a strong future revenue source [8] - The company anticipates recognizing $880 million of this deferred revenue within the next 12 months [8] Operational Expansion and Cash Flow - Tesla's operational expansion led to a 57% increase in R&D expenses to $1.630 billion, and a 32% rise in selling, general, and administrative expenses to $1.562 billion [9][10] - Despite these increases, operating cash flow remained robust at $10.934 billion for the nine months [9] AI Strategy - R&D expenses for AI and related projects significantly increased, with total AI infrastructure assets reaching $6.621 billion [10] - The company is integrating its AI chip design team, incurring $238 million in restructuring costs [10]

Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% with a 10 to 2 vote[2] - The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) is set for December 1[2] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the pace of rate cuts, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut[3] Future Rate Outlook - Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, as inflation remains resilient and non-farm payroll data shows a cooling trend[4] - The Fed may lean towards a slower pace of rate cuts in December due to data uncertainties[4] Market Reactions - The market reacted to the hawkish tone of the Fed, with U.S. Treasury yields and rate cut expectations declining, while the dollar strengthened and gold prices fell[6] - CME's expectations for a December rate cut have decreased to around 67%[6] Economic Conditions - Current credit market conditions are deemed to have no systemic risks, and AI continues to support stock market performance, boosting sentiment in U.S. equities[5] - The U.S. economy is experiencing stagflation, with a divide between booming AI investments and sluggish low-end consumer spending[6] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to look for opportunities in low-end consumer stocks like DLTR amidst ongoing government shutdowns and the suspension of food stamps[6] - For U.S. Treasuries, there are opportunities to go long around a yield of approximately 4.2%[8]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 82, indicating an "overheated" market condition. Historical trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or close to 50, the market tends to receive support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [5][9]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Outdoor Sports Theme**: The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have announced support for 49 regions, including Beijing's Pinggu District, to become high-quality outdoor sports destinations. This initiative aims to enhance the outdoor sports industry nationwide. Related stocks include Sanfu Outdoor (002780) and Yingshi Innovation (688775) [5]. - **Photoresist Theme**: A team from Peking University has made significant advancements in understanding the microscopic 3D structure of photoresist molecules, which could lead to reduced defects in the industry. Related stocks include Jingrui Electric Materials (300655) and Nanda Optoelectronics (300346) [5]. - **Energy Storage Theme**: The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027, attracting 250 billion yuan in direct investment. Policies are expected to enhance project IRR to over 8%. Overseas orders have surged by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh. Related stocks include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274) [5]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include: - Shanzigaoke (000981.SZ): 201,990.87 million yuan - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ): 146,500.08 million yuan - XianDao Intelligent (300450.SZ): 120,383.08 million yuan - CATL (300750.SZ): 119,869.80 million yuan [10]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include: - ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ): -172,042.08 million yuan - Xinyi Development (300502.SZ): -72,782.80 million yuan - Yingxin Development (000620.SZ): -65,588.02 million yuan [12]. Industry Performance - The top industries by net inflow include: - SW Electric Equipment: 944,099 million yuan - SW Banking: 155,618 million yuan - SW Non-ferrous Metals: 117,352 million yuan [15]. - The top industries by net outflow include: - SW Electronic: -351,915 million yuan - SW Communication: -416,268 million yuan - SW Defense and Military: -254,682 million yuan [20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Insights - Baima Tea is recognized as the largest high-end tea supplier in China, with a strong brand presence and continuous enhancement of brand equity [2]. - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a forecasted increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 2.64 to 3.69 CNY from 2025 to 2027 [10]. - The company is expanding its offline presence significantly, with plans to add 1,500 new stores in the next 3-5 years, focusing on lower-tier cities [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baima Tea is a well-known supplier of various tea products in China, including high-end Pu'er tea and other tea-related products, with its brand "Baima" recognized as a famous trademark [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 18.18 billion CNY in 2022 to 21.43 billion CNY in 2024, with net profit increasing from 1.66 billion CNY to 2.24 billion CNY during the same period [3]. - In the first half of 2025, revenue decreased by 4% to 10.63 billion CNY, primarily due to a reduction in offline stores [3]. Product Sales - In the first half of 2025, tea sales saw a slight decline of 4%, while tea utensils and tea food experienced growth of 1% and a decline of 20%, respectively [4]. - The average price of Baima tea increased from 643 CNY/kg in 2024 to 667 CNY/kg in 2025 [4]. Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its online sales through live streaming, which has contributed to an increase in online revenue share to 35.49% in the first half of 2025 [5]. - As of October 2025, the number of offline stores reached 3,730, with a net increase of 226 stores since the beginning of the year [9]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for EPS is 2.64 CNY for 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 33, indicating a solid market position [10]. - Revenue is expected to grow steadily, with a projected increase to 2,598 million CNY by 2026 [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in investment returns from the Jilong Copper Mine, with a notable increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][12] - The company reported a revenue of 2.401 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.35%, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses surged by 49.27% [4][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 61.16 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 96 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 723 million yuan, up 28.71% year-on-year, and a net profit of 948 million yuan, up 66.62% year-on-year [4] Business Segments - **Potassium Chloride Business**: - Q3 2025 production was 21.64 thousand tons, down 7.28% year-on-year, while sales volume increased by 41.74% year-on-year to 24.79 thousand tons [5] - Revenue from potassium chloride reached 2.1 billion yuan, a 39.09% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price up 26.88% [5][6] - **Lithium Carbonate Business**: - Q3 2025 production was 851 tons, down 75.46% year-on-year, with sales volume down 87.21% [6] - Revenue from lithium carbonate was 286 million yuan, with an average selling price down 24.59% [6] Investment Returns - The Jilong Copper Mine reported a copper production of 49.7 thousand tons in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.22%, leading to an investment income of 686 million yuan, up 35.04% year-on-year [7][8] Project Progress - The company is making significant progress in its potassium and lithium projects, with ongoing construction and development activities [9][10] - The company has resumed lithium resource development activities, adjusting its annual production and sales targets for lithium carbonate due to operational changes [11] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 3.737 billion yuan, 5.260 billion yuan, and 6.660 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 3.820 billion yuan, 4.920 billion yuan, and 6.261 billion yuan [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is showing signs of a revenue turning point, with new products continuing to penetrate channels [1] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 1.533 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 156 million yuan, down 44% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 37.15% in Q3 2025, attributed to product structure optimization and cost control measures [5] - The company is focusing on differentiated product development, particularly in the snack and e-commerce channels, which are contributing to growth [6] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to EPS of 2.59, 3.46, and 4.19 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 16, and 13 times [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, total operating revenue was 588 million yuan, an increase of 4% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 26% to 82 million yuan [4][5] - The company’s sales expense ratio increased by 6 percentage points to 17.33%, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.71% [5] Product and Channel Development - The company is developing differentiated products around legumes and flavored nuts, with successful trials in e-commerce [6] - The growth in Q3 2025 was primarily driven by the snack wholesale and e-commerce channels, with improvements in direct sales channels [6] Earnings Forecast - The adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at 2.59, 3.46, and 4.19 yuan, reflecting a cautious outlook on revenue growth [7] - The company’s revenue growth rates are forecasted at -2.1% for 2025, followed by 9.3% and 12.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [10]