2025 年 04 月 11 日 结构升级夯实长期景气，新兴市场表现亮眼 ——一拖股份（601038.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 2025 年 3 月 27 日，一拖股份发布 2024 年年报，2024 年全年 营收 119.04 亿元，同比增长 3.21%；归母净利润 9.22 亿 元，同比下降 7.52%。 投资要点 ▌产品结构加速升级，支撑行业长期景气 据中国统计局数据， 2024 年全年大型拖拉机累计产量 11 万 台，中型拖拉机累计产量 24 万台；随着农业生产规模化水平 提升，大拖市场占比持续增长，2024 年大型拖拉机占比增长 至 22.85%，产品大型化趋势持续强化。政策端来看，"优机 优补" 差异化补贴机制，引导行业技术升级。同时，随着农 村人口结构变动及土地集中化趋势，行业将长期受益于农业 现代化。在政策与市场双重驱动下，农机产品呈现大型、高 效、智能化的发展态势。 ▌海外业务承压显韧性，渠道优化驱动逆势突破 受俄罗斯等关键市场出口量下滑拖累，一拖股份全年海外营 收同比减少 6.27%（2023 年为 9.85 亿元）。面对地缘政治风 险扰动，公司通过渠道精细化运营、强化本 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [9]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 868 million yuan, up 9.94% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to deepen technological breakthroughs in 2025, aiming to become a global leader in new material solutions, with a focus on synthetic resins, advanced electronic materials, and biomanufacturing [4][8]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit over the next three years, with projections of 1.25 billion yuan in 2025, 1.47 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.84 billion yuan in 2027 [9]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2024, the company’s biomass product output increased by 41.33% year-on-year, with sales rising by 23.64% [2]. - The synthetic resin segment saw a production increase of 10.78% and sales growth of 8.85% in 2024 [2]. - The company’s financial expenses decreased due to the repayment of loans, contributing to improved profitability [3]. Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 11.54 billion yuan in 2025 to 15.21 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.9% [11]. - The net profit is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 25.3% from 2024 to 2027, reflecting strong operational performance [11]. - The report forecasts a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.47 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.17 yuan by 2027 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a single coating material provider to an integrated solution provider, covering upstream base films, adhesives, and downstream coating processes, which enhances its overall performance [5] - The traditional business segments, including inkjet printing materials, labels, and base film products, continue to provide stable cash flow, with revenue growth rates of 7.79%, 28.07%, and 111.33% respectively [5] - The new business segment of electronic-grade functional materials has also shown significant growth, with a revenue increase of 61.91% year-on-year [5] - The company has made progress in the production of flexible sensors, with successful installation and debugging of pilot production lines, indicating accelerated industrialization [6] - The company is a leader in the domestic BOPP segment, with a focus on accelerating the domestic substitution process in various fields [7][8] - The company’s profit forecast for 2025-2027 indicates net profits of 1.23 billion, 1.56 billion, and 2.19 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 59.0, 46.6, and 33.3 times [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company achieved total operating revenue of 2.541 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.23%, and a net profit of 139 million yuan, up 98.42% year-on-year [4] Investment Highlights - The company’s flexible sensor technology is based on flexible substrates, allowing for efficient pressure sensing on irregular surfaces, with ongoing research and development efforts leading to new patents and standards [6] - The functional base film materials are currently experiencing a negative gross margin due to high costs during the ramp-up phase of new production lines, but improvements are expected as production stabilizes [8] Profit Forecast - The company’s projected main operating income for 2025 is 3.209 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 26.3% [11]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [9]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 868 million yuan, up 9.94% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to deepen technological breakthroughs in 2025, aiming to become a global leader in new material solutions, with a focus on synthetic resins, advanced electronic materials, and biomanufacturing [4][8]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit over the next few years, with projections of 1.25 billion yuan in 2025, 1.47 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.84 billion yuan in 2027 [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.55%, while the net profit for the same quarter was 287 million yuan, down 6.65% year-on-year but up 15.20% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company’s sales, management, and R&D expense ratios increased slightly, while the financial expense ratio decreased due to debt repayment [3]. Product Performance - The company saw significant growth in its biomass products, with production increasing by 41.33% year-on-year to 256,300 tons and sales up 23.64% to 217,000 tons in 2024 [2]. - The synthetic resin segment produced 725,900 tons, a 10.78% increase year-on-year, while advanced electronic materials and battery materials saw modest growth [2]. Future Outlook - The company is set to release new production capacities, including a 1,000-ton PPO resin production line and a 100-ton hydrocarbon resin line, which are expected to enhance its market position [4]. - The revenue growth forecast for 2025 is projected at 11.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.1% [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company is transitioning from a single coating material provider to an integrated solution provider, covering upstream base films, adhesives, and downstream coating processes, which enhances its overall business performance [5] - The traditional business segments, including inkjet printing materials, labels, and base films, continue to provide stable cash flow, with revenue growth rates of 7.79%, 28.07%, and 111.33% respectively [5] - The new business segment of electronic-grade functional materials is also growing steadily, with a revenue increase of 61.91% year-on-year [5] - The company has made significant progress in the production of flexible sensors, with successful installation and commissioning of pilot production lines, indicating accelerated industrialization [6] - The company is a leader in the domestic BOPP segment, with a high level of technology maturity and market recognition, and is actively promoting domestic substitution in various fields [7][8] - The company's profit forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a net profit of 1.23 billion, 1.56 billion, and 2.19 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 59.0, 46.6, and 33.3 times [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company achieved total operating revenue of 2.541 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.23%, and a net profit of 139 million yuan, up 98.42% year-on-year [4] Investment Highlights - The company is enhancing its integrated industrial layout, with traditional and emerging businesses growing in tandem [5] - The flexible sensor production is progressing well, with pilot production lines operational and small batch orders completed [6] - The company is focusing on R&D, with new standards and patents being developed to address industry challenges [6] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see a decline in net profit in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years, indicating a potential recovery trajectory [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Yanjing Beer [4][6]. Core Views - Yanjing Beer achieved a strong performance in 2024, with total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.20%, and a significant rise in net profit by 63.74% to 1.056 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company continues to see high growth in its flagship product, Yanjing U8, which has driven overall sales structure upgrades and is expected to maintain over 30% growth in 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Annual Performance - In 2024, Yanjing Beer reported total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan, up 3.20% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.056 billion yuan, reflecting a 63.74% increase [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed stable revenue of 1.821 billion yuan, with a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1]. Product Pricing and Structure - The average price per ton of beer increased by 1.60% in 2024, with total beer sales volume reaching 4.0044 million kiloliters, a 1.57% increase year-on-year [2]. - Yanjing U8 sales grew significantly by 31.40% to 696,000 kiloliters, increasing its share of total beer sales by 3.95 percentage points to 17.38% [2]. Q1 2025 Performance - For Q1 2025, the company expects net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 160 million and 172 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.96% to 67.66% [3]. - The company is implementing nine major reforms to enhance operational efficiency and reduce losses from subsidiaries, which is expected to boost profitability [3]. Profit Forecast - The report projects continued high growth for Yanjing Beer, particularly driven by the U8 product line, with adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 at 0.37, 0.50, and 0.61 yuan respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 35, 26, and 22 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a successful year-end for 2024, with significant profit release and performance in Q1 2025 continuing to be strong [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing structural upgrades and cost control measures, which will enhance profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Annual Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.056 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 63.74% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 1.821 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.32%, and a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1]. Product Pricing and Structure - The average price per ton of beer increased by 1.60% in 2024, with total beer sales volume reaching 4.0044 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.57% [2]. - The sales volume of the premium product, Yanjing U8, grew significantly by 31.40%, accounting for 17.38% of total beer sales [2]. Q1 2025 Performance - For Q1 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders in the range of 160 to 172 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.96% to 67.66% [3]. - The company continues to implement nine major reforms, with Yanjing U8 maintaining over 30% growth, contributing to overall structural upgrades [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to maintain high growth rates in profitability, with EPS estimates for 2024-2026 adjusted to 0.37, 0.50, and 0.61 yuan respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 35, 26, and 22 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 76, categorizing it as "relatively hot," suggesting a positive market outlook and potential for upward movement in stock prices [5][9]. - Key themes identified for investment opportunities include cross-border payments, duty-free shopping, and agriculture, driven by recent policy changes and economic strategies [6]. Cross-Border Payments - The cross-border payment theme is gaining traction due to increased trade uncertainties and costs from tariff policies, necessitating more efficient payment systems. The CIPS system is expanding its functionalities and business volume, providing secure and efficient RMB cross-border payment services [6]. - Related stocks include Cross-Border Communication (002640) and Qingdao Kingking (002094) [6]. Duty-Free Shopping - A recent announcement from the State Administration of Taxation promotes the "immediate purchase and refund" service for outbound travelers, which is expected to boost domestic consumption, particularly in the tourism retail sector [6]. - Beneficiaries of this trend may include China Duty Free Group (601888) and Gree Real Estate (600185) [6]. Agriculture - The Central Committee and State Council have released a plan to accelerate the construction of a strong agricultural nation from 2024 to 2035, emphasizing self-innovation in seed industry and resource protection [6]. - Key stocks in this sector include Dabeinong Technology Group (002385) and Fengle Seed Industry (000713) [6]. Market Capital Flow - The report highlights significant net inflows into various stocks, with Industrial Fulian (601138) leading at 802.79 million, followed by Shenghong Technology (300476) at 585.44 million [10]. - The report also notes the top ten stocks with net outflows, indicating investor sentiment and potential areas of concern [12]. Industry Performance - The report provides insights into the performance of different industries, with electronics, food and beverage, and retail showing strong net inflows, while sectors like telecommunications and steel are experiencing net outflows [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Aofei Entertainment, while other companies remain unrated [7]. Core Insights - The trend of consumers paying for emotional value is rising, with Generation Z becoming the main consumer force, showing a preference for products that enhance personal experience [4][20]. - The traditional toy market is experiencing steady growth, with the building block toy segment expected to benefit significantly from the emotional consumption trend and the integration of IP [5][59]. - The AI toy market is projected to reach a trillion-level scale, with companies racing to establish their presence [6]. Summary by Sections Emotional Value Driving New Consumption Trends - The shift from a production-oriented society to a consumption-oriented one emphasizes emotional and spiritual values in consumer behavior [12][13]. - Generation Z is expected to lead in emotional consumption, favoring categories like beauty, outdoor sports, and cultural creative products [4][20]. - The emotional economy can be categorized into three types: addictive, social, and self-pleasing consumption [21]. Intelligent and IP-Driven Toy Market Growth - The toy market is diversifying, with a focus on user lifecycle companionship and a variety of product categories [27][29]. - The global building block toy market is projected to grow from 278 billion yuan in 2023 to 996 billion yuan by 2028, with significant growth in the Chinese market [5][59]. - The toy industry is characterized by low concentration, with many companies competing across various segments [46][49]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Aofei Entertainment is highlighted with a projected EPS of 0.06 in 2023, with a PE ratio of 133.50 [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of IP and innovation in enhancing product value and market competitiveness [50][51].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 63, categorizing it as "relatively hot," suggesting a positive market outlook and potential for upward movement in stock prices [6][10]. - Key themes being tracked include medical devices, brain-computer interfaces, and AI, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment opportunities: United Imaging Healthcare (688271), Mindray Medical (300760), Innovation Medical (002173), and Weisi Medical (688580) [7]. - The report notes that the rapid evolution of AI technology, particularly following the release of OpenAI's GPT-4o, is driving interest in AI-related stocks such as Shengtian Network (300494) and Aofei Entertainment (002292) [7]. Group 2 - The report provides a list of stocks with significant net inflows, including China Great Wall (118,023.59 thousand), Unisplendour (78,714.65 thousand), and Dongfang Caifu (75,358.17 thousand), indicating strong investor interest [11]. - It also highlights stocks with notable net outflows, such as Yonghui Superstores (-94,813.64 thousand) and Ningde Times (-67,355.57 thousand), which may suggest caution for investors considering these companies [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring financing net buying and selling trends, as high financing levels can indicate speculative risks, while net selling may reflect bearish sentiment towards specific stocks [23].