湖北电力现货市场转正式运行，4 月全国天然气表观消费量同比下降 2% 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 7 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECU ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: IC Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies as discussed in the Cinda Derivatives Research Report Series III[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[46] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[46] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of CSI 500 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[46] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[49] Model Name: IF Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the IC Hedging Strategy, based on basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[50] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[50] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of CSI 300 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[50] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[50] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[54] Model Name: IH Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the IC Hedging Strategy, based on basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[55] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[55] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of SSE 50 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[55] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[55] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[58] Model Name: IM Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the IC Hedging Strategy, based on basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[59] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[59] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of CSI 1000 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[59] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[59] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[60] Model Backtesting Results - **IC Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: -2.65% (monthly continuous), -1.77% (quarterly continuous), -0.74% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Volatility: 3.91% (monthly continuous), 4.81% (quarterly continuous), 4.73% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.51% (monthly continuous), -8.34% (quarterly continuous), -7.97% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Net Value: 0.9264 (monthly continuous), 0.9504 (quarterly continuous), 0.9792 (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 17.55 (minimum discount strategy)[49] - 2025 YTD Return: -2.82% (monthly continuous), -0.36% (quarterly continuous), 0.04% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - **IF Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 0.63% (monthly continuous), 0.92% (quarterly continuous), 1.46% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Volatility: 3.05% (monthly continuous), 3.40% (quarterly continuous), 3.19% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly continuous), -4.03% (quarterly continuous), -4.06% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Net Value: 1.0181 (monthly continuous), 1.0264 (quarterly continuous), 1.0421 (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 15.10 (minimum discount strategy)[54] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.53% (monthly continuous), 0.65% (quarterly continuous), 0.85% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - **IH Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 1.17% (monthly continuous), 2.11% (quarterly continuous), 1.83% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Volatility: 3.17% (monthly continuous), 3.59% (quarterly continuous), 3.18% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly continuous), -3.75% (quarterly continuous), -3.91% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Net Value: 1.0337 (monthly continuous), 1.0613 (quarterly continuous), 1.0529 (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 16.15 (minimum discount strategy)[58] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.29% (monthly continuous), 1.19% (quarterly continuous), 1.17% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - **IM Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: -5.86% (monthly continuous), -4.16% (quarterly continuous), -3.46% (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Volatility: 4.75% (monthly continuous), 5.80% (quarterly continuous), 5.61% (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.00% (monthly continuous), -12.63% (quarterly continuous), -11.11% (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Net Value: 0.8528 (monthly continuous), 0.8839 (quarterly continuous), 0.9006 (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 16.02 (minimum discount strategy)[60] - 2025 YTD Return: -7.89% (monthly continuous), -2.89% (quarterly continuous), -1.81% (minimum discount strategy)[60] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectation of future volatility of the underlying asset, with a term structure to reflect expectations over different periods[63] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Algorithm Basis**: Based on the methodology discussed in the Cinda Derivatives Research Report Series IV[63] - **Current Values**: As of June 6, 2025, the 30-day VIX values for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 17.19, 16.45, 22.33, and 22.89, respectively[63] Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility (IV) of options with different strike prices, indicating market expectations of extreme events[68] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Algorithm Basis**: Captures the skewness in IV to reflect market expectations of future returns distribution[68] - **Current Values**: As of June 6, 2025, the SKEW values for SSE

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2]. Core Insights - The company, Nanwei Technology, is a leader in high-performance nano-microsphere materials, with significant improvements in performance margins. The company has faced growth pressures due to external macroeconomic changes since 2023, but has shown notable recovery starting from Q4 2024, with a quarterly revenue of 233 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.47%, and a net profit of 41 million yuan, up 38.05% [4][33]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on two major opportunities in its chromatography filler business: import substitution and commercialization expansion. The global chromatography medium market is projected to grow from 6.9 billion USD in 2023 to 9 billion USD by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.26%. In China, the market is expected to grow from 11.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.3 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 21.92% [5][18]. - The company is expanding its industrial chain through a dual approach of self-building and acquisitions, enhancing its business extensibility and opening up growth ceilings [7][20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nanwei Technology, established in 2007, specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-performance nano-microsphere materials, serving various sectors including biomedicine, flat panel displays, analytical testing, and in vitro diagnostics. The company aims to become a global leader in microsphere brands [21][23]. Chromatography Filler Business - The chromatography filler and chromatography medium are critical consumables for biopharmaceutical separation and purification. The company has developed a comprehensive range of products, making it a key player in the domestic market. The company is expected to benefit from import substitution and commercialization opportunities, with successful case studies already established [5][18]. Industrial Chain Layout - The company is actively building its industrial chain by acquiring and establishing subsidiaries focused on chromatography instruments, consumables, and purification systems. This strategy is expected to enhance its market position and operational efficiency [7][20]. Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue projections for the company are 1.001 billion yuan in 2025, 1.244 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.549 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 141 million yuan, 221 million yuan, and 285 million yuan. The company is rated positively due to its leading position in the chromatography filler and medium industry, along with favorable market conditions [8][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2]. Core Insights - The company, Nanwei Technology, is a leader in high-performance nano-microsphere materials, with significant improvements in its performance margins. The company has faced growth pressures due to external macroeconomic changes since 2023, but has shown notable recovery since Q4 2024, achieving a quarterly revenue of 233 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.47%, and a net profit of 41 million yuan, up 38.05% [4][33]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on two major opportunities in its chromatography filler business: import substitution and commercialization expansion. The global chromatography medium market is expected to grow from 6.9 billion USD in 2023 to 9 billion USD by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.26%. In China, the market is projected to grow from 11.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.3 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 21.92% [5][18]. - The company has established a comprehensive layout in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, enhancing its growth potential. Through a combination of self-built and acquired subsidiaries, it has expanded into chromatography instruments, consumables, protein purification systems, and in vitro diagnostic consumables [7][20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nanwei Technology, founded in 2007, specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-performance nano-microsphere materials, serving various sectors including biomedicine, flat panel displays, analytical testing, and in vitro diagnostics. The company aims to become a global leader in microsphere technology [4][21]. Chromatography Filler Business - The chromatography filler and chromatography medium are critical consumables for biopharmaceutical separation and purification. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing import substitution and commercialization expansion in this sector [5][18]. - The company has developed a full range of chromatography fillers and media, making it a key player in the domestic market, which has historically been dominated by foreign brands [5][18]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 1.00 billion yuan, 1.24 billion yuan, and 1.55 billion yuan, respectively. Corresponding net profits are expected to be 141 million yuan, 221 million yuan, and 285 million yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) of 0.35 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.71 yuan [8][10]. Subsidiary Overview - The company has several key subsidiaries, including: 1. Fuli Instruments, a leading domestic chromatography instrument manufacturer [11]. 2. NAP Analysis, focusing on high-quality laboratory chromatography consumables [11]. 3. Saip Instrument, specializing in precision purification equipment for biopharmaceuticals [11][20]. Market Opportunities - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing domestic demand for chromatography fillers and media, driven by the growth of the biopharmaceutical industry and the trend towards import substitution [5][18].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the tire industry, highlighting robust demand and strategic expansions by key players like Sailun [3][4]. Core Insights - The tire industry is experiencing a decline in raw material prices, which is beneficial for manufacturers [3][6]. - Sailun Group has successfully launched its first high-performance tires in Indonesia and Mexico, marking significant milestones in its global expansion strategy [3][4]. - Sailun has entered the top ten of the global tire brand value rankings, reaffirming its position as the most valuable tire brand in China with a 13% increase in brand value [3][4]. - The tire raw material price index has decreased significantly, with a 2.95% month-on-month decline and an 8.28% year-on-year decline [6][7]. Summary by Sections Raw Materials - The raw material price index for tires in May was 156.89, reflecting a 2.95% decrease month-on-month and an 8.28% decrease year-on-year [6][7]. - Specific prices include natural rubber at 14,955 CNY/ton (down 2.52% month-on-month, up 5.48% year-on-year), styrene-butadiene rubber at 12,459 CNY/ton (down 0.22% month-on-month, down 7.79% year-on-year), and carbon black at 6,815 CNY/ton (down 7.46% month-on-month, down 21.72% year-on-year) [6][7]. Production and Export - In May, the average operating rate for full steel tires in China was 58.80%, a decrease of 6.34 percentage points month-on-month, while for semi-steel tires, it was 72.53%, down 6.68 percentage points month-on-month [25]. - In April, China's rubber tire production was 102 million units, a 5.07% decrease month-on-month but a 14.03% increase year-on-year [27]. Consumption - The replacement market shows resilience, with stable demand in the U.S. and a 1.95% month-on-month increase in imported semi-steel tires [3][41]. - In April, U.S. automotive parts and tire store retail sales were $11.529 billion, reflecting a 1.20% decrease month-on-month but a 0.60% increase year-on-year [68]. Shipping Costs - In May, shipping costs remained stable at a low level, indicating a potential for cost management in the tire supply chain [4]. Key Companies - Sailun Tire is highlighted as a key player in the industry, with significant achievements in production and brand value [3][4].

多地发布"136"号文衔接机制，风光抢装潮持续 [Table_Industry] —电力行业 4 月月报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 6 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业月报 Table_ReportType] 电电力行业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：011-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：011-83326723 邮 箱： lichunchi@cindasc.com 化工行业： 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electricity industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the "136" document mechanism in multiple regions, leading to a surge in renewable energy installations. The specific measures vary across regions, impacting the development of new energy projects significantly [3][8] - The report anticipates that the domestic electricity sector may experience profit improvement and value reassessment following several rounds of supply-demand tensions. Despite a gradual easing of supply-demand conflicts, some economically developed areas still face regional supply shortages [4][10] Summary by Sections Monthly Special Topic - The "136" document has been implemented in Shandong, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia, with varying measures affecting the protection of existing projects and the execution of new projects [9][10] Monthly Sector and Key Listed Company Performance - In May, the electricity and public utilities sector rose by 2.3%, outperforming the broader market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.8% [11][14] Monthly Electricity Demand Analysis - In April 2025, total electricity consumption reached 772.1 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%. The growth rates for different sectors were 13.8% for primary industry, 3.0% for secondary industry, and 9.0% for tertiary industry [16][19] Monthly Electricity Production Analysis - In April 2025, total electricity generation was 711.1 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. Notably, wind and solar power generation saw significant growth of 12.7% and 16.7%, respectively [38][39] Monthly Electricity Market Data Analysis - The average purchase price of electricity in June was 385.80 yuan/MWh, showing a decrease of 1.02% month-on-month and 2.78% year-on-year [4] Investment Strategy and Valuation of Major Listed Companies - The report suggests that coal-electricity integrated companies and national coal-electricity leaders are likely to benefit from the current market conditions. Specific companies mentioned include Xinji Energy, Shaanxi Energy, and Huaneng International [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2][9] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading operator of long-distance natural gas pipelines in Shaanxi Province, benefiting from high dividend yields and stable cash flows. The business model is characterized by a mix of stable pipeline transportation fees and city gas sales, with long-distance pipeline operations contributing 62.2% to revenue and 81.7% to gross profit in 2024 [6][9][11] - The company is expected to experience long-term growth driven by asset injections from the group and ongoing pipeline expansions. The acquisition of pipeline assets is anticipated to significantly increase gas sales volume, with a projected 70% year-on-year increase in gas sales volume in 2024 [6][9][11] - The company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio above 60% from 2019 to 2024, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 5.6% based on the closing price on June 4, 2025 [6][9][29] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is controlled by Shaanxi Gas Group and is a major operator of long-distance natural gas pipelines in Shaanxi Province, with a pipeline network covering 4,569 kilometers and an annual gas transmission capacity of 17 billion cubic meters [12][54] Business Model - The primary business models include long-distance pipeline operations and city gas sales, with the former being the main profit contributor. The long-distance pipeline business operates on a stable fee structure, while city gas sales profit from the price difference between procurement and sales [16][19] Financial Performance - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% in gas transmission volume from 2014 to 2024. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 90.33 billion yuan, a 19.6% increase compared to the previous year [8][54][20] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from the injection of group assets and the completion of key pipeline projects, which will enhance its gas transmission capacity significantly. Two major pipelines under construction are projected to add substantial capacity upon completion [11][54] Market Position - The company holds a monopolistic position in the regional market, supported by high entry barriers and a stable operational framework. The government pricing mechanism ensures a steady cash flow linked to gas transmission volumes [50][51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][9] Core Views - The company is a leading operator of long-distance natural gas pipelines in Shaanxi Province, benefiting from high dividend yields and stable cash flows. The business model is primarily based on collecting stable pipeline transportation fees, with long-distance pipeline operations contributing 62.2% of revenue and 81.7% of gross profit in 2024. The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio above 60% from 2019 to 2024, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 5.6% based on the closing price on June 4, 2025 [6][9][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is controlled by Shaanxi Gas Group and is a major operator of long-distance natural gas pipelines in Shaanxi Province. It has a well-established network covering most of the province, with a total pipeline length of 4,569 kilometers and an annual transportation capacity of 17 billion cubic meters [12][56]. Business Model - The main business segments include long-distance pipeline operations and urban gas distribution, with the former being the primary profit contributor. The long-distance pipeline business operates under a mixed model of unified purchase and sales plus transportation, while urban gas operations focus on the price difference between procurement and sales [16][19]. Financial Performance - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% in gas transportation volume from 2014 to 2024. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 90.33 billion yuan, a 19.6% increase compared to the previous year, driven by the acquisition of pipeline assets [20][56]. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from the injection of group assets and the construction of key pipelines, which will enhance its long-term growth potential. Two major pipelines under construction are projected to significantly increase the company's gas transportation capacity upon completion [11][56]. Market Demand - The natural gas demand in Shaanxi Province is expected to continue growing steadily, with residential gas consumption being a significant portion of the total demand. The province has abundant natural gas resources, with proven geological reserves of approximately 1.2 trillion cubic meters [38][41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fengmao Co., Ltd. (301459) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's growth and expansion strategies [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to invest up to RMB 1.5 billion in a new automotive parts production base in Jiaxing, which will focus on advanced automotive components such as thermal management systems and air suspension systems [2][3]. - The core business is showing steady growth, with a projected 25% year-on-year increase in sales revenue from the transmission system in 2024, driven by technology upgrades [3][4]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings and expanding into non-automotive sectors, with applications in robotics, drones, and other high-value areas [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance its product matrix by developing lightweight air spring products for electric vehicles and expanding production capacity in multiple locations, including a new base in Jinan and a production facility in Thailand [3][4]. - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of RMB 1.99 billion, RMB 2.46 billion, and RMB 3.04 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.92, RMB 2.37, and RMB 2.92 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The company is making significant investments in emerging business areas, which are expected to create new growth opportunities [3]. - The new production base will cover approximately 150 acres and is anticipated to generate an annual output value of around RMB 1.5 billion within five years of completion [2][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 802 million in 2023 to RMB 1.735 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from RMB 138 million in 2023 to RMB 304 million in 2027, with a CAGR of 23.6% [4]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories, particularly in air suspension systems and thermal management systems, to meet the rising demand in the automotive sector [3]. - The company is also enhancing its global presence by exporting products to various regions, including Europe, Southeast Asia, and South America [3].