Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo
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MPOB报告中性偏空,棕榈油震荡调整
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 0.09% to 4445 ringgit/ton; palm oil 01 contract dropped 2.41% to 9296 yuan/ton; soybean oil 01 contract declined 1.51% to 8322 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 0.4% to 9857 yuan/ton; CBOT US soybean oil main contract increased 1.8% to 52.12 cents/pound; ICE canola active contract climbed 2.25% to 631.4 Canadian dollars/ton [4][7]. - Palm oil oscillated and closed lower during the week, while rapeseed oil showed good resistance. The August MPOB report indicated that due to weakening export demand, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in August increased to 2.2 million tons, and the ample supply pressured prices to adjust downward. The policy of re - allocating the US soybean oil biofuel blending obligation to large refineries faced obstacles. In early September, both production and demand of Malaysian palm oil weakened, reducing price support [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut cycle next week. The US dollar index is weakly oscillating, and oil prices are also in an oscillating trend. Fundamentally, the August MPOB report was slightly bearish, with an increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and a relatively ample supply. Indonesia's B50 policy may be implemented in two phases, weakening the policy drive. The Canadian government is considering canceling tariffs on China. The domestic demand for oil stockpiling before the Double Festival is expected to boost prices. In the short term, palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 9/12 Price | 9/5 Price | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 52.12 | 51.2 | 0.92 | 1.80% | Cents/Pound | | BMD Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4445 | 4449 | - 4 | - 0.09% | Ringgit/Ton | | DCE Palm Oil | 9296 | 9526 | - 230 | - 2.41% | Yuan/Ton | | DCE Soybean Oil | 8322 | 8450 | - 128 | - 1.51% | Yuan/Ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Oil | 9857 | 9818 | 39 | 0.40% | Yuan/Ton | | Futures Spread between Soybean Oil and Palm Oil | - 974 | - 1076 | 102 | - | Yuan/Ton | | Futures Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Palm Oil | 561 | 292 | 269 | - | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of 24 - degree Palm Oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong | 9320 | 9380 | - 60 | - 0.64% | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Grade - 1 Soybean Oil in Rizhao | 8480 | 8510 | - 30 | - 0.35% | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Imported Grade - 3 Rapeseed Oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu | 10040 | 9860 | 180 | 1.83% | Yuan/Ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The August MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August was 2.202534 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase; production was 1.855008 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.324672 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease; imports were 49036 tons, a 19.66% month - on - month decrease [8]. - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, and export data from different institutions also showed a decline. For example, according to SPPOMA, production decreased by 3.17% compared with the same period last month [8]. - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil content in biodiesel to 45% (B45) and then to B50 in two phases [9]. - As of August 31, there were 209,033 small oil palm farmers in Malaysia, covering 747,012 hectares of plantations, obtaining the MSPO certification [9]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.73 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.4547 million tons from the same period last year [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The EU has recognized Malaysia's Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification as a reliable standard [12]. - Malaysia's oil palm planting area in 2025 is expected to be 5.64 million hectares, slightly higher than 5.61 million hectares in 2024 [12]. - CIMB analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September to increase by 6% month - on - month to 2.3 million tons due to weak exports and domestic demand [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report includes charts such as the price trends of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil main contracts, the price trends of the three major oils' futures and spot prices, various oil price spreads, and inventory trends of Malaysia, Indonesia, and domestic oils [13]
去产能预期尤在,锂价震荡
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:48
碳酸锂周报 2024 年 9 月 15 日 去产能预期尤在 锂价震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周回顾:市场围绕宁德锂矿复工博弈,价格在前低处阶 段性企稳。周初,三方媒体透露宁德时代旗下公司召开枕 下窝锂矿复产推动会,市场多头紧急避险离场,盘面跳空 低开。而经市场进一步取证,宁德会议仅为推动矿证申请 组的工作进程,并非计划近期复产,随后价格在低处企稳。 而回顾往期事件来看,前低价格正是反内卷情绪就降温后 的震荡区间。或暗指资源扰动逻辑结束后,反内卷或将是 多空博弈的下一个议题。 ⚫ 后期观点:基本面偏空格局不变,但资源扰动风险小于内 卷治理政策风险,锂价震荡。借鉴近十年相似案例来看, 江西锂资源扰动或难落地,我们更倾向于企业按期交付续 请材料后仍无法在期限内取得新证,但不会影响矿山开 采。因此,资源端的扰动预期有限。相比 ...
供应压力不改,氧化铝延续弱势
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market remains weak due to supply pressure. Although the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, the downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely due to the oversupply of alumina, and the consumption increment is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to rise, adding pressure to the market. Attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/9/5 | 2025/9/12 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3006 | 2914 | -92 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3166 | 3099 | -67 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 202 | 224 | 22 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 355 | 333 | -22 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -1.30 | 123 | 124.3 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 112306 | 138692 | 26386 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract fell 3.06% last week, closing at 2914 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market was reported at 3099 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of -67 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In the bauxite market, the overall supply of domestic ores remains severe. The regular inspections and the slow resumption of closed mines have kept the operating rate of inland mines low, with limited spot circulation in the market, which supports the price. The inventory of imported ores at Chinese ports has started to decline, but the overall supply of imported ores in China is still slightly excessive. Enterprises will continue to make purchases based on rigid demand in the short term, and the differences in price views between supply and demand sides will lead to continued price competition in the market [5]. - On the supply side, alumina supply increased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north that were affected by environmental protection measures and reduced production have slightly increased production this week. As of September 11, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [5]. - On the consumption side, last week, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was transferred to Yunnan, while other electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintained stable production. Overall, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable compared with the previous week, and the demand for alumina did not change significantly [5]. - In terms of inventory, the warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures increased by 11,000 tons last Friday, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [2][5][7]. Market Outlook - The Chinese bauxite market showed no significant changes last week. The interaction of multiple bullish and bearish factors led to no substantial adjustment in prices. On the supply side, some previously shut - down production capacities resumed operation last week, resulting in a slight increase in operating capacity. On the consumption side, the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous period. However, due to the oversupply of alumina, downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand replenishment, with limited consumption increment. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase by 11,000 tons during the week, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level, and considering the current weighted average cost of alumina, there is still some profit. It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will remain high in the future. The consumption side remains stable, and with sufficient supply, buyers have a strong mindset of pressing down prices. The rising warehouse receipt inventory also adds pressure, so alumina will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. Industry News - Vedanta announced an investment of over 125 billion rupees to enhance its metal manufacturing capabilities, aiming to strengthen the domestic supply of key materials necessary for electric vehicle production to meet the needs of India's rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) industry and contribute to India's vision of sustainable and clean transportation. The investment involves expanding the aluminum smelting business, increasing the added value of aluminum products, building a new zinc alloy factory, installing a zinc roasting furnace, and expanding the ferrochrome production capacity [8]. - Jiaokou County Wangzhuang Pig Iron Co., Ltd. won the exploration right of the Fengjiagang block bauxite in Jiaokou County, Shanxi Province, with the highest bid of 3.1728 billion yuan [8]. - Metro Mining's operating data for August 2025 showed that the shipment volume of its Queensland bauxite mine project increased by 6% year - on - year to 753,101 wet tons. As of now, Metro Mining's total bauxite shipment volume has reached 3.4 million wet tons, and its target shipment volume for 2025 is 6.5 - 7 million wet tons [8].
钢材周报:供需驱动不强,钢价震荡为主-20250915
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that the Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and Shenzhen has adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - In terms of fundamentals, last week's industrial data was average. Steel production decreased, hot - rolled coil apparent demand rebounded, but rebar apparent demand declined. The peak - season demand expectation was hard to fulfill, and rebar inventory continued to accumulate. With good steel - mill resumption, strong raw - material support, limited peak - season demand recovery, and weak spot prices, steel futures prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3127 | - 16 | - 0.51 | 9051013 | 3329767 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3364 | 24 | 0.72 | 2667967 | 1323310 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 799.5 | 10.0 | 1.27 | 1727027 | 538976 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1144.5 | - 14.0 | - 1.21 | 6923190 | 910688 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1625.5 | - 21.0 | - 1.28 | 130356 | 52840 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated slightly down. From Monday to Thursday, prices dropped due to poor demand recovery, and on Friday, policy expectations increased, warming market sentiment and pushing up steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3010 (+20) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - In August, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 3.3%. From January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6][7] - The preliminary value of the change in the US non - farm employment benchmark in 2025 was - 911,000, expected to be - 700,000, and the previous value was - 598,000 [10] - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [10] - In August, automobile production and sales in China were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4% [10] - On September 5th, Shenzhen adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - On September 14th, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot price differences, steel - mill profits, blast - furnace operating rates, production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][11][18] etc.
豆粕周报:USDA报告符合预期,连粕震荡运行-20250915
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:37
豆粕周报 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 2025 年 9 月 15 日 USDA 报告符合预期 连粕震荡运行 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周,CBOT美豆11月合约涨18.5收于1045.25美分/蒲式 耳,涨幅1.80%;豆粕01合约涨12收于3079元/吨,涨幅 0.39%;华南豆粕现货涨20收于2980元/吨,涨幅0.68%; 菜粕01合约跌19收于2531元/吨,跌幅0.75%;广西菜粕现 货涨10收 ...
现货需求良好,铁矿震荡偏强
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:33
铁矿周报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 现货需求良好 铁矿震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 1/11 ⚫ 需求端:上周钢厂显著复产,铁水产量大幅回升,日 均铁水升至240万吨以上水平。上周247家钢厂高炉 开工率83.83%,环比上周增加3.43个百分点,同比去 年增加6.20个百分点,日均铁水产量 240.55万吨, 环比上周增加11.71万吨,同比去年增加17.17万吨。 ⚫ 供应端:上周海外发运量显著减少,到港小 ...
铅周报:铅价技术性突破,谨防高位回落风险-20250915
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The strengthening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation provides positive support for the lead price. Meanwhile, the concentrated maintenance of primary lead and secondary lead smelters eases the supply - demand pressure, and capital inflows drive the lead price up. However, demand is difficult to improve significantly. With the resumption of production of some primary lead smelters under maintenance and the possible marginal increase in supply after the secondary lead profit is restored due to the rise in lead price, it is expected that the upward momentum of lead price is limited. Investors should be cautious about chasing the rise and beware of the risk of a high - level decline [4][8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From September 5th to 12th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,988 dollars/ton to 2,019 dollars/ton, an increase of 31 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.50 to 8.44, a decrease of 0.06; the SHFE inventory decreased from 66,834 tons to 66,561 tons, a decrease of 273 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 248,200 tons to 229,575 tons, a decrease of 18,625 tons; the social inventory increased from 3.59 million tons to 3.94 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 125 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the SHFE lead main contract PB2510 fluctuated narrowly in the first half - week and soared on Friday afternoon, closing at 17,040 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. The LME lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 2,019 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%. In the spot market, on September 12th, the lead prices in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2510 contract. Downstream enterprises mainly made long - term order purchases and were hesitant about high - priced goods [6] - As of September 12th, the LME weekly inventory was 248,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 18,625 tons; the SHFE inventory was 66,561 tons, a decrease of 273 tons from the previous week. As of September 11th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 600 tons from Monday and an increase of 900 tons from last Thursday. With the approaching of the current - month contract delivery, the inventory may increase again [7] 3.3 Industry News - In the week of September 12th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton from the previous week; the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was 90 dollars/dry ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [9] 3.4 Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium, LME lead premium, primary - secondary lead price difference, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [11][14][18][22]
美联储降息临近,谨防金银因利多兑现而回调
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:33
贵金属周报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 美联储降息临近, 谨防金银因利多兑现而回调 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格延续强势表现。国际金价再创历史新高, 白银价格也创出近14年新高。主要因美国劳动力市场出现 疲软迹象,强化了人们对美联储下周进行年内首次降息的 预期。 ⚫ 最新数据显示,美国初请失业金人数上升,就业增长放缓, 且过去一年非农数据被下调91.1万个职位,显示经济动能 减弱。与此同时,8月消费者价格指数环比上涨0.4%,为 七个月最大增幅,但市场普遍将就业走弱视为更重要信 号,从而推动投资者押注美联储在9月18日会议上宣布年 内首次降息。 ⚫ 中国央行已连续10 ...
降息条件充分,铜价震荡上行
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The main reasons were that the overall CPI in the US in August was moderately controllable with limited month - on - month increase, and the employment market remained weak. The market actively bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. Trump's arrangement of his White House economic advisor as a director might further interfere with the Fed's policy independence, and the weakening of the US dollar index boosted copper prices. Fundamentally, major mines maintained supply disruptions, there were expectations of refined copper production cuts in China, emerging industries had rapid consumption growth, and there was a risk of further decline in social inventories. The B - structure of the near - month contract slightly narrowed [2]. - Weak employment data increased the Fed's pressure to cut interest rates this month, and the low - inflation environment provided a favorable basis for a full - scale shift to a loose policy path. Trump's appointment of new directors might speed up his intervention in the future federal funds rate. In addition, the month - on - month decline of CPI in August but the narrowing of PPI decline, and the stable export growth. Driven by the expectation of growth - stabilizing policies, the sentiment in the domestic capital market was high. Fundamentally, the interference rate at overseas mine ends continued to rise, refined copper production was expected to decline. With the arrival of the consumption peak season in September and October, the tight - balance structure in China would intensify, and it was expected that copper prices would enter a stage of fluctuating upward in the short term [3][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Price changes: From September 5th to September 12th, LME copper rose from $9,865.00/ton to $10,064.50/ton, a 2.02% increase; COMEX copper rose from $454.35 cents/pound to $464.8 cents/pound, a 2.30% increase; SHFE copper rose from 80,140 yuan/ton to 81,060 yuan/ton, a 1.15% increase; international copper rose from 71,130 yuan/ton to 72,030 yuan/ton, a 1.27% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.12 to 8.05. The LME spot premium dropped from -$68.04/ton to -$73.42/ton, a 7.91% decline, and the Shanghai spot premium dropped from 165 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory changes: As of September 12th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 635,473 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,000 tons (-2.53%), COMEX inventory increased by 5,142 short tons (1.68%), SHFE inventory increased by 12,203 tons (14.91%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 3,200 tons (-3.99%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper price trend: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The reasons were related to the US economic data and policy expectations, as well as the fundamentals of supply and demand. The total global inventory continued to rise, and the US dollar index's limited rebound led to the Shanghai - London ratio remaining at a relatively low level [8]. - Macroeconomic situation: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week reached 263,000, a month - on - month increase of 27,000, far exceeding the expected median of 235,000. The actual number of new non - farm jobs in the past 12 months ending in March was 911,000 less than previously reported. The 8 - month CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% increase. The market continued to bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged, and the euro - zone inflation was under control. In China, the CPI in August was -0.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy was +0.9% year - on - year. The PPI decline narrowed [9]. - Supply and demand situation: Globally, the mine - end supply remained tight and was transmitted to the smelting end. In China, refined copper production in September might continue to decline. The supply of scrap copper tightened, and the profitability of small and medium - sized smelters was limited. On the demand side, power grid investment projects would speed up, the copper cable industry's operating rate was expected to return to about 80%. The demand for new energy vehicles would enter the peak season, and social inventories might decline further. The tight - balance structure would intensify [10]. 3. Industry News - Import data: In August, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 275.93 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the cumulative imports from January to August reached 2,007.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products in August were 42.5 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 353.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. In July, the copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year, while the production of Collahuasi decreased by 27.2% year - on - year [12]. - Panama copper mine: The Panamanian government plans to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals about the possible restart of the Panama copper mine at the end of this year or early 2026. A comprehensive environmental audit will be carried out first, which is expected to take 3 - 4 months. Before the shutdown, the mine's annual copper production was 35 tons, and its contribution to Panama's GDP was about 5%. The shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of $1.7 billion [13]. - Freeport - McMoRan: An accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia led to 7 workers being trapped underground, and the mine's operation was suspended. The company's stock price fell by 5.81% on Tuesday. The Grasberg mining area has an annual copper production capacity of about 771,100 tons and a gold production capacity of 1.4 million ounces [14][15]. 4. Related Charts - Multiple charts showed the trends of copper prices (including SHFE copper, LME copper, COMEX copper), inventories (LME, COMEX, SHFE, Shanghai bonded area), spreads (LME spot premium, Shanghai spot premium, etc.), ratios (Shanghai - London ratio), and other indicators, as well as the net long - position ratio of non - commercial traders in COMEX copper and the net position change of LME copper investment funds [17][21][40].
降息预期提振,锌价向上修复
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:25
锌周报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 降息预期提振 锌价向上修复 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价重心上抬。宏观面看,美国 8 月通胀温 和上涨,符合市场预期,但更多就业数据疲软,显示就业 形势严峻,市场加强美联储降息的押注,基本确定 9 月降 息,且预计年内降息三次,美元延续弱势,利好金属价格。 国内 8 月出口数据有所走弱,出口前置影响消退,新增信 贷规模低于预期,新增社融规模符合预期,居民部门短贷、 中长贷均连续两个月少增,内生经济仍弱,市场对托底政 策抱有期待。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn ...