Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - China's economy shows a stable and positive trend, with the manufacturing PMI marginally rebounding in May, industrial enterprise profit growth continuing to turn positive, the central bank's 1 trillion yuan outright reverse repurchase maintaining a moderately loose tone, and resilient foreign trade exports. However, the trade war impacts the global supply chain and may exacerbate the stagflation risk in the US economy [4][9][53]. - The supply - side improvement is limited, with the operating rate in Xinjiang dropping to 60%, a slight recovery in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, and the southwest region approaching the resumption cycle during the wet season. Social inventory shows a slight decline, and the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory is mainly due to the monthly decrease in domestic production [4][53]. - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises enter an active production - cut cycle due to shrinking downstream demand. The silicon wafer market orders are weak, battery enterprises engage in panic selling to reduce inventory, and the component market demand weakens significantly after the end of the rush - installation period. In traditional industries, silicone monomer enterprises' production - cut to support prices has little effect, while the aluminum alloy output and processing fees show a slight increase. It is expected that the demand side will still face downward pressure in June, and the supply - side will passively contract, with the oversupply situation difficult to change. Industrial silicon is expected to confirm the stage bottom support [4][55]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 2025 May Industrial Silicon Market Review - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price Continues to Reach Bottom**: In May 2025, industrial silicon showed a volatile downward trend. The main 2507 contract traded between 7130 - 8500 yuan/ton, with the price center moving down. The overall sentiment in the photovoltaic industry chain was weak, and the demand faced significant downward pressure. The traditional industries of silicone and aluminum alloy also had weak demand. By May 30, the main 2507 contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 16.1% [9]. - **Spot Market Continues to Decline**: By the end of May, the overall furnace - opening rate of industrial silicon decreased to 27.3%. The social inventory decreased slightly to 58.9 tons due to the decline in absolute production in May. The demand in traditional industries and the photovoltaic industry decreased, making it difficult for the supply - side to resume production strongly. The spot prices of mainstream grades such as 553 continued to decline, and it is expected that the prices of domestic mainstream grades will have limited rebound space in June [12][13]. Macroeconomic Analysis - **China's Foreign Trade Exports are Resilient, and Industrial Enterprise Profits in April Accelerate to Turn Positive**: In April, China's total foreign trade export value reached 535.2 billion US dollars, with exports increasing by 8.1% year - on - year. ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner from January to April. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year from January to April, and the equipment manufacturing industry's profit growth was prominent [18][19]. Fundamental Analysis - **Limited Recovery of Northern Production Capacity, and Sichuan and Yunnan are Approaching the Resumption Period during the Wet Season**: In May, the industrial silicon output decreased by 3.6% month - on - month to 305,000 tons. The production capacity recovery in the north was limited, while Sichuan and Yunnan were approaching the resumption time window during the wet season. It is expected that the operating rate of the industrial silicon industry will rebound from a low level in June [21]. - **Expected Stable Export Volume in June**: From January to April, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 216,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. It is expected that the export volume from May to June will remain stable at 60,000 - 70,000 tons [31]. - **High - level Social Inventory in May**: By May 30, the social inventory decreased slightly to 589,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 8.6% month - on - month. It is expected that the social inventory will continue to decline steadily in June [34]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Chain Enters a Contraction Cycle, and Silicone Industry's Price - Cutting to Reduce Inventory Becomes the Mainstream**: In May, the polysilicon output decreased by 4.3% month - on - month, and the prices of silicon wafers, batteries, and components all declined. The silicon wafer market orders were weak, and the component market price reached a new low. The silicone DMC output increased slightly in May, and it is expected that the price will maintain a weak oscillation at a low level. The aluminum alloy output and processing fees increased slightly in May, but it is expected that the output will be difficult to grow significantly in June [36][38][39]. Market Outlook - The macro - economic situation is stable and positive in China, but the trade war impacts the global economy. The supply - side improvement is limited, and the demand - side pressure remains. Industrial silicon is expected to confirm the stage bottom support [4][53][55].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - aspect, from January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [1][4][6] - In the fundamental aspect, last week, the output of rebar was 2120000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50000 tons, with a surface demand of 2200000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3250000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. Overall, last week's industrial data was stable, with both output and surface demand increasing and inventory decreasing. The weak pattern of building materials demand remained unchanged, affected by real estate investment and seasonal weakening of demand, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 110000 tons, indicating strong resilience in the downstream manufacturing industry. With multiple factors at play, steel prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] - Last week, steel futures showed a fluctuating trend. Terminal data was poor, with weak supply and demand, and a slight increase in cost support. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2920 (+20) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3090 (0) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3200 (+20) yuan/ton. Considering the in - depth off - season demand, steel prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2992 | 23 | 0.77 | 7142023 | 3003707 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3116 | 34 | 1.10 | 2406634 | 1488632 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 703.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 2099456 | 678221 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 795.0 | 20.5 | 2.65 | 4896063 | 685871 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1384.5 | 35.0 | 2.59 | 142071 | 54570 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated. Terminal data was poor, with weak supply and demand, and a slight increase in cost support, so steel prices mainly fluctuated. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2920 (+20) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3090 (0) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3200 (+20) yuan/ton [4] - In the macro - aspect, from January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [4] - In the industrial aspect, last week, the output of rebar was 2120000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50000 tons, with a surface demand of 2200000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3250000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. Overall, last week's industrial data was stable, with both output and surface demand increasing and inventory decreasing. The weak pattern of building materials demand remained unchanged, affected by real estate investment and seasonal weakening of demand, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 110000 tons, indicating strong resilience in the downstream manufacturing industry. Considering the in - depth off - season demand, steel prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [5] Industry News - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [6][7] - In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [10] - The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the interest rate unchanged since January. The Fed's dot - plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025 and by 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [10] - In May 2025, the automobile output was 2.642 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; from January to May, the automobile output was 12.757 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [10] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, rebar basis trend, hot - rolled coil basis trend, rebar spot regional price difference trend, hot - rolled coil spot regional price difference trend, long - process steel mill smelting profit, short - process electric furnace profit in East China, national 247 blast furnace operating rate, 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, rebar output, hot - rolled coil output, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, rebar factory inventory, hot - rolled coil factory inventory, rebar total inventory, hot - rolled coil total inventory, rebar apparent consumption, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption [9][11][16]

铅周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 利好边际增加 关注整数突破 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格 号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价窄幅震荡。宏观面看，美联储不急 于降息，预计今年降息 2 次，下调明年降息次数为 1 次，美元坚挺，同时美国下场，以伊冲突升级提升避 险需求，风险资产承压。 要点 基本面看，5 月铅精矿及银精矿进口量基本符合预期， 原料维持偏紧，加工费微降。赤峰山金银铅、郴州 ...

棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 中东冲突范围扩大 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨188收于4115林吉特/吨，涨幅 4.79%；棕榈油09合约涨396收于8536元/吨，涨幅4.86%； 豆油09合约涨370收于8156元/吨，涨幅4.75%；菜油09合 约涨416收于9726元/吨，涨幅4.47%；CBOT美豆油主连涨 3.85收 ...

碳酸锂周报 2024 年 6 月 23 日 上游预期复产 锂价或有新低 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 李婷 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 基本面方面：终端消费增速表现尚可，正极周度排产表现 平稳，终端热度并未有效向上传导，材料厂存在一定补库， 但力度有限。价格反弹后，上游供给明显回暖，库存压力 依然较强，基本面偏弱延续。 ⚫ 成本方面：报告期内，百川口径下的锂辉石价格小幅走弱， 锂云母价格小幅上涨。 ⚫ 盘面上，周一主 ...

李婷 铜周报 美联储立场偏鹰，铜价小幅回落 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价小幅回落，主因美元低位反弹及美国经济滞涨风 险升温，地缘政治冲突加剧令海外资本逐渐逃离风险资产 削减大宗商品头寸，叠加美联储一再推迟降息节点并发表 偏鹰派言论打压市场宽松预期，海外宏观缺乏对铜价的向 上驱动。基本面来看，全球主要矿山中断持续，非美地区 显性库存快速回落，LME0-3创年内新高，国内社会库存偏 低，盘面近月B结构同样走扩，精矿供应的紧缺正逐步传 导至精铜供应。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 ...

铁矿周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 需求小幅回升 铁矿震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 2992 | 23 | 0.77 | 7142023 | 3003707 | 元/吨 | | SHFE 热卷 | 3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US economic soft data shows signs of weakening, with the labor market remaining stable overall. The Fed maintains the current policy rate but emphasizes future economic uncertainty, raising inflation expectations and lowering economic growth forecasts. There are stagflation risks, and macro - pressure persists [3]. - Fundamental situation: Nickel ore prices stay high, with most Indonesian ferronickel plants in a cost - upside - down state, and some plan to cut production. Traditional terminals remain weak, stainless - steel prices decline, suppressing steel mills' restocking. New - energy consumption performs well, and overall demand is slightly weak. Supply shows signs of narrowing, but the export window is open, keeping supply at a relatively high level [3]. - Future outlook: With the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict and the potential rise in global crude oil prices, US inflation pressure may increase. Fundamentals may be revised, mainly driven by production - cut expectations due to low corporate profits. Consumption may remain stable, with traditional sectors weak and the new - energy sector potentially having an increase. Nickel prices may rebound slightly [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Summary - SHFE nickel price decreased from 119,690 yuan/ton to 118,280 yuan/ton, a drop of 1,410 yuan/ton; LME nickel price fell from 15,069 dollars/ton to 15,011 dollars/ton, a decrease of 58 dollars/ton [5]. - LME inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 681 tons to 21,669 tons [5]. - Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,650 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton [5]. - High - nickel pig iron average price decreased from 947 yuan/nickel point to 942 yuan/nickel point [5]. - Stainless - steel inventory increased from 91.7 tons to 92.6 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons [5]. 2. Market Review - **Nickel ore**: Philippine nickel ore prices rose, while Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices declined. The acceptance of high - priced ore by downstream is weak, and July pre - sales transactions are scarce [6]. - **Ferronickel**: High - nickel pig iron prices dropped. Chinese ferronickel production in May increased, and imports decreased. Indonesian ferronickel production in May increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. Ferronickel may face the most pressure in the industry chain, with high upstream costs and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Nickel sulfate**: Battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices decreased. June production is expected to decline year - on - year and month - on - month. Ternary material production increased. Downstream inventory decreased, and upstream inventory increased. Nickel sulfate prices may continue to be weak [8]. - **Macro and fundamentals**: US economic soft data weakened, with consumption and output growth rates declining. The Fed maintains the current interest rate policy but raises inflation expectations and lowers economic growth forecasts. In terms of supply, domestic production capacity is stable in June, but smelter production schedules decline. In terms of consumption, new - energy vehicle sales in the first half of June increased year - on - year, but the growth rate in the second week weakened. Inventory shows a mixed trend, with LME inventory increasing and SHFE inventory decreasing [8][9][10]. 3. Industry News - Indonesia lowers the reference price for the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade in June by about 1.19% compared to the first - phase [14]. - Indonesia plans to punish a nickel park suspected of violating environmental regulations, which may affect some major nickel suppliers [14]. - Toyota Tsusho and LG Energy Solution plan to establish a joint venture for automotive battery recycling in North America, aiming to recycle valuable metals from battery waste [14]. 4. Relevant Charts The report provides charts on domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18].

锌周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 宏微观偏弱 锌价低位震荡 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价横盘震荡。宏观面看，美联储连续第四 次会议按兵不动，预计今年降息两次，符合预期，但将明 年的降息次数减少了一次。美国直接下场，以伊冲突升级， 市场避险情绪抬升及降息路径偏鹰，美元偏强，压制金属。 国内陆家嘴论坛未有超预期表现，5 月经济数据多数下 行，以旧换新支撑消费走高，持续性存疑。基本面看，5 月锌精矿进口符合预期，全球矿山稳步输出，加工费仍有 上涨空间。炼厂生产积极性尚可，供应回升。进口窗口关 闭后，5 月进口量低于预期，但国内产量恢复弥补进口缺 失量。需求端看，抢出口效应递减，5 月镀锌板出口环比 降幅较大，且仍又回落压力。近期受梅雨季及高位天气拖 累渐显，消费边际走弱，同时山东地区环保检查，镀锌企 业开工回落；五金汽配订单走弱，叠加部分企业因设备原 因产量减少，压铸锌合金企业开工回落；企业复工，氧化 锌开工率微增。终端需求回落，初端企业开工下滑态势不 改，且目前原料库存较高，补库动力不足，锌锭社会库存 小幅增加。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t ...

黄蕾 豆粕周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 等待月底面积发布 连粕或震荡调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆7月合约跌1.25收于1067.25美分/蒲式耳， 跌幅0.12%；豆粕09合约涨26收于3067元/吨，涨幅0.85%； 华南豆粕现货涨40收于2920元/吨，涨幅1.39%；菜粕09合 约涨5收于2679元/吨，涨幅0.19%；广西菜粕现货涨10收于 257 ...