Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the Fed will gradually slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, and the US government's vision to revitalize traditional manufacturing will restrict the growth rate of the global photovoltaic industry. China is expected to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming for a good start in the 15th Five - Year Plan [3][57]. - In terms of supply, Xinjiang's production share has increased this year, while Sichuan and Yunnan's operations are generally low. New production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu has been released steadily. The number of operating furnaces has decreased, and social inventory is high. Silicon enterprises' production profits turned positive in the second half of this year. The planned new production capacity in 2026 is only 700,000 tons. Domestic cumulative production is expected to drop to 4.15 million tons this year and further to 4 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [3][57]. - In terms of demand, with the establishment of a new polysilicon platform company, a new sustainable industry ecosystem will be built. The production capacity of downstream battery and component markets will be further compressed, and photovoltaic terminal installations will enter a self - adaptive deceleration period. The silicone industry will enter a new balance cycle through production cuts. The aluminum alloy industry's production growth is limited due to the decline in construction and building materials demand. The overall demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down in 2026, with a projected 3% decline in consumption growth [3][58]. - In 2026, the supply - demand structure of industrial silicon is expected to improve. The anti - involution policy will be further implemented. The photovoltaic industry will shift from high - growth to high - quality development, and the futures price center may stabilize and recover. The main operating range of industrial silicon in 2026 is expected to be between 8,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [3][58]. Summary by Directory 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the industrial silicon market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The futures price dropped from a maximum of 11,130 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a minimum of 6,990 yuan/ton in early June, a decline of 37.2%. In the second half of the year, due to supply contraction and improved market sentiment, the price gradually recovered. By December 12, the main contract SI2605 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 2595 yuan/ton compared to the end of last year, a decline of 23.6%. The annual price fluctuated between 6,990 - 11,130 yuan/ton [8]. Macroeconomic Analysis Fourth Plenary Session Focuses on High - Quality Development and Domestic Demand - China's traditional manufacturing faces internal and external pressures. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes requirements for economic development, including promoting high - quality development, technological innovation, and the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials. The development of artificial intelligence is also emphasized in multiple aspects [11][12]. Dual Loose Monetary and Fiscal Policies for Stable Economic Growth - China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The official manufacturing PMI in November was 50.2. The economy has maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with rapid industrial growth, stable employment, and increasing resident income. In 2026, China is expected to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [14]. Fundamental Analysis Increasing Northern Production Share and Profit Turnaround in Southwest - In November 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 401,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 3.868 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. Xinjiang's production showed a trend of low - to - high, while Sichuan and Yunnan increased production from the dry season to the wet season. The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was limited. In the context of anti - involution policies, the supply side has contracted [16]. Only 700,000 Tons of New Production Capacity Planned in 2026 - As of now, China's total industrial silicon production capacity is 7.879 million tons, with an effective capacity of 7.846 million tons. The new and expanded production capacity projects from the second half of 2025 to 2026 have significantly slowed down. The planned new production capacity in 2026 is only 700,000 tons, a significant drop compared to 2025. It is expected that the total production capacity in 2026 will reach about 8.3 million tons, with a decreasing growth rate [27][30]. High Social Inventory and Stable Export Growth - As of December 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon reached 561,000 tons, a 4.6% increase from the end of last year. The exchange's average warehouse receipt inventory was between 150,000 - 180,000 tons. From January to October, the export volume was 607,000 tons, a 1% year - on - year decrease. In 2026, the domestic social inventory is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, and the export growth rate is expected to be 5 - 8% [36][37]. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis New Polysilicon Platform Company and Anti - Involution in Photovoltaic Industry - From January to November 2024, China's polysilicon production was 1.206 million tons, a 27.3% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, the "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" was officially established. In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will focus on capacity regulation, price monitoring, and eliminating backward production capacity. The industry is expected to enter a new balance cycle [40][43]. Silicone Industry Enters a New Ecosystem - From January to November 2025, China's silicone DMC production was 2.272 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. After the industry's anti - involution meeting in November, enterprises reached a consensus on a 30% production cut and joint price support. The DMC price has rebounded from 11,050 yuan/ton to 13,600 yuan/ton. In 2026, the silicone production is expected to grow limitedly and enter a sustainable development model [44]. Limited Growth in Aluminum Alloy Production - From January to October, China's aluminum alloy production was 15.76 million tons, a 15.7% year - on - year increase. Affected by the real estate industry, the demand for aluminum processing products was weak. In the fourth quarter, there were both production increases and decreases in different regions. It is expected that the aluminum alloy production will maintain a low growth rate in 2026 [46]. Slowing Demand Growth but More Balanced Supply - Demand in 2026 - In 2026, the demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down, but the supply - demand structure will be more balanced. The consumption growth rate is expected to decline by about 3% [47][48]. 2026 Market Outlook - In 2026, the Fed will slow down the interest rate cut, and the US government's policy will restrict the global photovoltaic industry. China will implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The supply of industrial silicon will contract, and the demand growth will slow down. The supply - demand structure is expected to improve, and the futures price may stabilize and recover, with a main operating range of 8,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [57][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, US CPI and core CPI in November dropped to 2.7% and 2.6% year - on - year, far lower than market expectations, but data credibility is questionable. The market reacted positively, with expectations of Fed rate cuts. The ECB maintained rates and was vague on easing [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market showed a structured rise with reduced trading volume, and the bond market was also divided. The short - term A - share market is expected to be volatile and weak, and the bond market's main trend is unclear [3]. - For precious metals, gold and silver prices may face adjustment risks, and platinum and palladium should not be chased at high prices due to regulatory measures and data uncertainties [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term due to mild inflation data and tight fundamentals [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise steadily due to positive macro factors and good fundamentals [8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weak and volatile as the supply remains abundant [10]. - Cast aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to cost support [11]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue oscillating as there is support from inventory reduction but also pressure from market uncertainties [12]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation due to low inventory and cost support [14]. - Tin prices' upward momentum is weakening, and chasing high prices should be cautious [15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to be strong and volatile as supply and demand show marginal improvement [17]. - Steel prices are expected to follow a short - term rebound but maintain an oscillating pattern [19]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains [20]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound in the short term due to policy stimulation [21]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as US soybeans continue to decline and the supply in China is sufficient [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be weak and oscillating as Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October and market factors are complex [24]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US November CPI and core CPI were 2.7% and 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected. The data's credibility is in doubt. The market expects Fed rate cuts. The ECB maintained rates and didn't give clear easing guidance [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced volume, showing a structured market. The bond market was divided. The short - term A - share market is expected to be volatile and weak, and the bond market's main trend is unclear [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices had a short - term rise and then a fall after the US CPI data release, facing increased adjustment risks. Platinum and palladium prices continued to rise, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted platinum futures' daily opening positions, so chasing high prices is not recommended [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper's main contract oscillated upward, and LME copper oscillated around $11,700. Mild inflation data is beneficial for a dovish stance. Fundamentally, mine restarts are slow, and inventories are low. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 21,955 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. LME aluminum closed at $2,917/ton, up 0.38%. US inflation data boosted rate - cut expectations, and the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory verified year - end consumption resilience. Aluminum prices are expected to rise steadily [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures' main contract closed at 2,553 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The supply is abundant with inventory flowing into the market and imports arriving. Alumina prices are expected to be weak and volatile [9][10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast aluminum alloy futures' main contract closed at 21,110 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. At the end of the year, both supply and demand decreased. Cast aluminum prices are supported by the cost of scrap aluminum and are expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc's main contract oscillated narrowly. The US CPI data had a limited impact. Consumption showed resilience, and social inventory declined. However, LME had continuous small - volume warehousing. Zinc prices are expected to continue oscillating [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead's main contract oscillated narrowly. The supply side had a mixed situation of reduction and resumption. The terminal was in the off - season, but low inventory and cost support are expected to keep lead prices oscillating narrowly [13][14]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin's main contract oscillated strongly at night. The supply - side disturbance support weakened, and downstream acceptance of high - priced tin was under pressure. Tin prices' upward momentum is expected to weaken [15]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The supply side is generally stable, and the demand side shows some changes. Social inventory rose slightly. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be strong and volatile [16][17]. 3.11 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The output and apparent demand of the five major steel products were slightly adjusted, and inventory continued to decline. Steel prices are expected to follow a short - term rebound but maintain an oscillating pattern [18][19]. 3.12 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated upward. The supply was strong with high overseas shipments and port inventory accumulation, while the demand was weak as steel mills cut production. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [20]. 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. Policy stimulation strengthened the bottom support. Coking enterprises' costs increased, and the supply was generally loose. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound in the short term [21]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends. US soybeans continued to decline, and the supply in China was sufficient. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate [22][23]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm oil futures showed a mixed performance. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October due to increased domestic consumption. Palm oil prices are expected to be weak and oscillating [24].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251218 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：国际银价再创新高，国内股债双涨 贵金属：铂钯期货均涨停，有望延续强势 海外方面，美联储理事沃勒称，当前仍存在 50–100 个基点的降息空间，但无须急于行 动，在就业温和走弱、通胀受控且预期稳定的背景下，美联储将以稳步、渐进方式把政策利 率引向中性，在稳增长与控通胀之间保持平衡。AI 数据中心融资受阻影响海外风偏，美股 齐跌，美元指数最高反弹至 98.6，美债利率小幅下行，金银铜均上涨，白银创下 66 美元历 史新高，油价涨逾 1%，特朗普限制受制裁油轮进出委内瑞拉，地缘风险升温推高油价。今 日关注美国 11 月 CPI 及欧央行议息会议。 周三贵金属价格继续走强，日盘期间国内白银、铂、钯期货均创出新高，且铂、钯期货 均直击涨停。近日铂钯期货表现异常强劲，并带动金银价格走强之势。铂钯价格走强受到宏 观、基本面和资金面的共同提振。美联储降息预期为稀贵金属提供宏观支撑。最新美联储理 事沃勒表示，随着就业市场趋弱且通胀受控，美联储仍有 50 至 100 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 宏观：非农数据喜忧参半，A 股延续缩量下跌 商品日报 20251217 海外方面，美国经济呈现"就业走弱、需求尚稳、通胀黏性犹存"的格局。11 月新增非 农 6.5 万人超市场预期，但失业率升至 4.6%、创四年新高，就业结构明显恶化，全职岗位流 失、兼职就业增加，反映就业质量走弱。需求端方面，10 月核心零售超预期走强，对四季度 增长形成支撑。与此同时，12 月 Markit PMI 回落，制造业与服务业均弱于预期，就业指标 逼近停滞、价格指数显著上行，显示经济动能放缓与通胀压力并存。美股涨跌分化，美元指 数最低回落至 97.8，美债利率下行，金价、铜价窄幅震荡，供给宽松预期推动油价下跌、美 油创 2021 年来新低。 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 国内方面，中央财办表示，明年将把扩大内需置于首要位置，继续实施适度宽松的货币 政策，从供需两端协同稳市场。供给端严控增量、盘活存量，推动收购存量商品房用于保障 性住房等用途，加快去库存，并有序推进"好房子"建设。A 股周二延续缩量调整，两市近 4300 只个股收跌、成交额回落 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global iron ore demand growth in 2026 is expected to remain moderate. The overseas market shows some resilience, but China's demand outlook is weak due to insufficient growth momentum in domestic pig iron production and slow recovery of steel demand in the real - estate sector [3][18][50]. - The global iron ore production in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.3%. The increments mainly come from the launch of the Simandou project in Guinea, production recovery and expansion of major mines in Australia and Brazil [3][21][50]. - In 2026, the global iron ore market is expected to maintain a loose supply - demand pattern. With weak demand and continuous supply growth, the iron ore price is under pressure, and its center may continue to decline, with a reference range of 600 - 880 yuan/ton [3][51]. 3. Section - by - section Summaries 3.1. Market Review - In early 2025, iron ore prices rose strongly. From January to February, the main contract reached the annual high of 844 yuan/ton, driven by macro - policy expectations, seasonal reduction of overseas ore shipments, and demand support from blast furnace复产 after the Spring Festival [7]. - In the second quarter, the market weakened significantly. In March, the slow recovery of terminal demand, US steel tariffs, and anti - dumping in Southeast Asia increased steel export pressure. In April, the "reciprocal tariff" policy in the US caused market panic, leading to a sharp decline in iron ore prices [7]. - In July, there was a strong reversal. The "anti - involution" policy raised expectations of coking coal contraction, and the high - level daily iron - water production provided strong support. However, the continuous narrowing of steel mill profits foreshadowed subsequent price drops [7]. - Since August, iron ore has been oscillating at a high level with a gradually downward center. After the National Day holiday, demand weakened, iron - water production decreased, and supply increased, leading to rising port inventories and weakening prices [7]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Domestic Iron Ore Demand Better than the Same Period - China's steel production was generally at a high level, with iron - water production being high in the first half and low in the second half. As of November, the average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills was about 238 tons/day, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The blast furnace operating rate was in the 80% - 85% range [10]. - Long - product output declined more significantly due to the real - estate industry, while plate output decreased less due to support from the automotive, shipbuilding, and manufacturing industries and exports [10]. - China's steel exports reached a record high in 2025. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 10771 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, and the billet export volume in the first ten months increased by 157% [11]. - Overseas, the total iron ore demand increased in 2025 but was highly differentiated. India was the main growth driver, while demand in Japan, South Korea, and some European countries decreased [14]. 3.2.2. Overseas Ore Shipments Maintained an Upward Trend - In 2025, China's iron ore imports increased slightly. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 1.139 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import rhythm accelerated in the second half of the year [19]. - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea was successfully launched in 2025, and the first shipment was made in December. The project has an annual capacity of 1.2 billion tons and is expected to significantly increase production in 2026 [19]. - Global iron ore shipments were generally at a high level. From January to the 49th week, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.1% year - on - year. Mainstream mines' shipments to China and arrivals increased significantly in the second half of the year [20]. 3.2.3. Iron Ore Port Inventories - Port inventories were generally at a high level in 2025, first decreasing and then increasing. At the beginning of the year, inventories were about 150 million tons. They decreased in the first half due to low overseas shipments and high domestic consumption, and then increased in the second half due to strong supply and weakening demand [31]. 3.2.4. Steel Mill Inventories - Steel mills adopted a cautious strategy of "actively reducing inventories and maintaining low levels" in 2025. They were cautious in raw material procurement, especially in the second half of the year when profits were compressed [43]. - Steel mills tended to replenish inventories before long holidays to ensure production continuity. After the holidays, inventory reduction often led to weakening iron ore prices [43]. 3.2.5. Domestic Mine Production - Domestic mine production contracted in 2025. From January to October, the cumulative iron ore output was 851.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. Production in Hebei and Liaoning decreased significantly [45]. - Some new projects in 2025 are expected to contribute about 6.565 million tons of new iron concentrate output, but they are still far from the goals of the "Cornerstone Plan" [45]. 3.2.6. Shipping Freight - Iron ore shipping freight increased significantly in 2025, showing a pattern of being weak at first and then strong with wide fluctuations. By December 11, the freight from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao increased by 64% compared to the beginning of the year, and that from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao increased by 33% [47]. 3.3. Market Outlook - In 2026, global iron ore demand growth is expected to be moderate. China's demand is weak, while overseas demand has some resilience [50]. - Global iron ore production in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.3%, with increments mainly from the Simandou project and production expansion of major mines in Australia and Brazil [50]. - The global iron ore market is expected to maintain a loose supply - demand pattern in 2026. With weak demand and continuous supply growth, the iron ore price is under pressure, and its center may continue to decline, with a reference range of 600 - 880 yuan/ton [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are concerned about the US non - farm payrolls, with weak risk appetite, while the domestic economic data continues to be weak, and the A - share market is expected to be weak in the short term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [2][3] - Precious metals may have a technical correction, but platinum and palladium are expected to rise; copper prices will fluctuate in the short term; aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level; alumina's upward space is limited; casting aluminum will fluctuate at a high level; zinc prices are adjusting and waiting for macro - guidance; lead prices will fluctuate weakly; tin prices will continue to adjust at a high level; industrial silicon prices are expected to rebound; steel prices will fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices will be under pressure; coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate weakly; soybean and rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate; palm oil prices will fluctuate in a range [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: Fed officials' remarks affect market expectations, Japan's manufacturing confidence supports central bank rate hikes, and before important data releases, overseas market risk appetite is weak [2] - Domestic: November economic data is cold, with production showing resilience and demand cooling further. The A - share market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metals futures generally rose on Monday, with platinum hitting the daily limit in the domestic market. There is a risk of a technical correction in gold and silver, while platinum and palladium are expected to rise. Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and retail data [4][5] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated at a high level. With a weak US dollar and various macro and industrial factors, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract fell, and LME aluminum was flat. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data, and with inventory accumulation and seasonal demand slowdown, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the alumina futures main contract rose. Although the price has rebounded, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum, and the upward space is limited [10] 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the casting aluminum alloy futures main contract fell. Affected by raw materials and environmental protection, both supply and demand are weakening, but with cost support, it will fluctuate at a high level [11] 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the approach of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is cautious. In the long - term, overseas supply will improve, and currently, the supply pressure is decreasing, so zinc prices will adjust in the short term [12] 3.8 Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the improvement of overseas supply in the medium - long term and the increase in inventory, the support of low inventory is weakening, but the downward space is limited [13][14] 3.9 Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract adjusted downward. With the release of multiple economic data and the increase in Indonesian tin exports, the macro and micro support for tin prices is weakening, and it will continue to adjust at a high level [15] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon rebounded at a low level. Supported by cost and market sentiment, it is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [16][17] 3.11 Steel (Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. With weak terminal demand data, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [18] 3.12 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. With the increase in supply and weak demand, iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [19] 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Monday, double - coking futures fluctuated weakly. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [20][21] 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, soybean and rapeseed meal contracts fluctuated. With positive South American crop prospects and concerns about US soybean exports, the domestic market will maintain a short - term pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the main contracts will fluctuate [22][23] 3.15 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil contracts fell. With weak export demand and expected inventory increase, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. Pay attention to the support at the lower limit of the previous low range [24][26] 3.16 Metal Trading Data - Provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts in the main domestic and international markets on December 15, 2025 [27] 3.17 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the prices, inventories, and other data of various metals on December 15, 2025, with those on December 12, 2025, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [28][31][33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, with prices under long - term pressure and the futures trading range likely to drop to 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton [2][59][170] - The global aluminum supply in 2026 is expected to grow at a rate of 1.4%, with overseas becoming an important growth point. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term, especially in the first half of 2026, with the upper limit to be watched at 25000 yuan/ton [2][171] - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are in a delicate balance. Its price follows cost fluctuations and there are seasonal and macro - event - based arbitrage opportunities [2][120][172] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 2025, alumina showed a weak and volatile pattern, with prices falling from around 4000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 2665 yuan/ton, then rebounding and finally fluctuating weakly near the cost line [9] - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum price generally showed an upward trend, with some fluctuations due to tariff policies. There were also opportunities for intra - month spread arbitrage and cross - market arbitrage [10] - Cast aluminum futures were launched on June 10, 2025. Its price showed an upward trend, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum changed during the year [11][12] 2. Macroeconomic Situation Overseas - The Fed may be hesitant to cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2026. The US economy may continue to expand in the third quarter, but inflation concerns may rise at the end of the year. The eurozone's inflation is approaching the target, and its monetary policy will remain stable [29][33][34] Domestic - China is expected to achieve its 2025 GDP growth target of 5%. In 2026, the GDP target is expected to be set at 5%. Fiscal policy will be proactive, and monetary policy will remain loose [35] 3. Alumina Adequate Imported Ore in 2026 - In 2025, the supply of bauxite was abundant, and the price of imported bauxite decreased. In 2026, the supply of bauxite is expected to be sufficient, with domestic and imported ore totaling about 280 million tons, and the price of imported ore may decline slightly [51][53][55] High Unreleased Alumina Capacity at Home and Abroad - In 2025, the alumina capacity was in surplus, and the price decreased. In 2026, the new domestic and overseas alumina capacity is expected to exceed 20 million tons, and the demand growth is lower than the supply growth [56][57] Overseas Alumina with Cost Advantage Flows into China - In 2025, China changed from a net importer to a net exporter of alumina. In 2026, China is expected to return to a net - importing pattern because of the cost advantage of overseas alumina [58] Increased Surplus Pressure and Cost - Based Price Competition - In 2026, the supply of alumina is expected to be in surplus, and the price will be under long - term pressure, with the futures trading range likely to drop [59] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Limited Domestic Capacity Growth Space - In 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum capacity approached the ceiling. In 2026, the domestic capacity growth is limited, and the supply (production + net import) is expected to be about 46.78 million tons, with a growth rate of about 1.01% [87][88][89] Indonesia Contributes Main Incremental Space, but Power Situation Needs Attention - In 2025, the overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity increased by 1 million tons. In 2026, the overseas capacity is expected to increase by 1.2 million tons, and the production is expected to be about 30.6 million tons, with a growth rate of 2% [90][91][92] 5. Cast Aluminum Tight Scrap Aluminum Provides Long - Term Cost Support for Cast Aluminum - In 2025, the supply of domestic scrap aluminum was tight. In 2026, the domestic scrap aluminum supply is expected to be about 16.4 million tons, with a growth rate of 21% [112][114][115] Low Operating Rate of Cast Aluminum Alloy and Limited Capacity Expansion - In 2025, the operating rate of the cast aluminum alloy industry was low, and the capacity expansion slowed down. In 2026, the aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a net inflow [116][117][118] Cost and Profit of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, silicon, copper, natural gas, and other expenses. In 2026, the cost of cast aluminum is expected to remain firm [119] Consumption Balance and Views of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The supply of cast aluminum has excess built - in capacity, but the tight scrap aluminum and low profit limit the capacity expansion. The consumption of each segment is growing. The price of cast aluminum follows cost fluctuations, and there are arbitrage opportunities [120][121][172] 6. Consumption End Challenges Remain in Aluminum Product Exports in 2026 - In 2025, China's aluminum product exports decreased. In 2026, there are still challenges, but efforts are being made to diversify the market [136] Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market was at the bottom. In 2026, it is expected to continue to adjust, with the decline in new construction area narrowing slightly and the decline in completion area narrowing [137] Power - In 2025, the investment in the power grid increased. In 2026 - 2030, the annual investment in the power grid is expected to be about 75 billion yuan, and the aluminum consumption in the power sector will increase by about 650,000 tons [138][139] New Energy Sector - In 2025, the new - energy installation increased. In 2026, the photovoltaic installation is expected to decline, but the wind - power installation is expected to increase, offsetting part of the reduction in aluminum consumption [141][142][143] Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market developed well. In 2026, the domestic automobile sales are expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum consumption of new - energy vehicles is expected to increase by about 576,000 tons [144] Energy Storage - In 2025, the global energy - storage installation increased significantly. In 2026, the domestic and global energy - storage new - installation is expected to reach 17.2GW and 39.9GW respectively, with the aluminum consumption increasing [145][147] Data Center - In 2026, many large - scale data - center projects are planned to be built, which will drive the demand for aluminum [149] 7. Global Aluminum Supply Still in Shortage in 2026 - In 2026, the global electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to be 74.98 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.4%, and the consumption is expected to be 75.5 million tons, still in shortage [170] 8. Market Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to be under long - term pressure, with the futures trading range at 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term, especially in the first half of 2026. Cast aluminum prices follow cost fluctuations [170][171][172]

Report Date - The report is dated December 15, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated downward. The emergence of a new polysilicon platform company short - term suppressed the demand side of industrial silicon. Supply was generally stable with Xinjiang's operating rate rising to 88%, while Southwest China's was low in the dry season. On the demand side, the polysilicon market had more confidence in industry self - discipline; silicon wafers had a weak reality and weak expectations; battery cells entered a production cut cycle; and component procurement weakened at the year - end. Industrial silicon social inventory rose to 561,000 tons, and the spot market price declined [2][5][9] - Overall, the new polysilicon platform improved the supply - demand expectation of the upstream silicon material market, but short - term suppressed industrial silicon demand. The main contract stabilized after hitting the 8200 level, and industrial silicon futures prices were expected to enter a stable and rebound trend [2][9] Market Data - From November 24 to December 1, the industrial silicon main contract price rose from 8960 yuan/ton to 9130 yuan/ton, a 1.90% increase; the price of oxygen - containing 553 and non - oxygen - containing 553 spot remained unchanged; the 421 spot price was stable; the 3303 spot price dropped from 10500 yuan/ton to 10450 yuan/ton, a 0.48% decrease; the organic silicon DMC spot price rose from 13100 yuan/ton to 13200 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the polysilicon dense material spot price was unchanged; and the industrial silicon social inventory rose from 548,000 tons to 550,000 tons, a 0.36% increase [3] Market Analysis and Outlook Supply - Xinjiang's operating rate further increased to 88%, Southwest China's was low in the dry season, and Inner Mongolia and Gansu had limited production growth. Overall, the supply side was stable [2][5][9] Demand - The polysilicon market had more confidence in industry self - discipline; silicon wafers maintained a weak reality and weak expectations; battery cells entered a production cut cycle as rising raw material costs increased the market processing fee, causing battery factories to stop low - price orders (silver paste cost accounted for 60% of non - silicon cost); component procurement weakened at the year - end, with few new projects, and enterprise cost inventory would rise to about 31GW [2][5][7] Inventory - As of December 12, industrial silicon social inventory rose to 561,000 tons, and the exchange registered warehouse receipt inventory decreased to 43,000 tons. After the new warehouse receipt delivery standard, the mainstream 5 - series became the main delivery model, and the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered was increasing [8] Price Trend - The new polysilicon platform improved the supply - demand expectation of the upstream silicon material market but short - term suppressed industrial silicon demand. The main contract stabilized after hitting the 8200 level, and industrial silicon futures prices were expected to enter a stable and rebound trend [2][5][9] Industry News BC Technology - BC technology is breaking the homogeneous and price - war competition in the photovoltaic industry. Despite challenges, the industry is working on cost - reduction technologies. It is expected that BC products will have a market share of over 30% in 3 - 5 years, and BC technology may become the lowest - cost single - crystal silicon technology [10] Longi Green Energy - After more than three years of planning, Longi Green Energy terminated its GDR issuance plan due to external changes and the expiration of relevant resolutions. The original plan was to raise about 19.996 billion yuan for five projects [11] Related Charts - The report includes charts showing industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, main production area weekly output, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, industrial silicon spot prices, and polysilicon and organic silicon spot prices [13][17][18]

焦煤焦炭周报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 上游煤焦累库 双焦延续弱势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 上周主要期货市场收市数据 注:(1)成交量、持仓量：手； 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 下游：钢厂铁水产量下跌，终端需求继续放缓。钢厂的 焦炭生产维持，日均焦炭产量基本持平，库存环比增加。 ⚫ 中游：焦化企业连续四周盈利，主因焦煤价格走弱，焦 炭产量调整，但出货困难，库存大幅增加。全国平均吨 焦盈利44（环比+14）元/吨。上周产能利用率为73.16% （-0.68）；焦炭日均产量63.98（-0.55）万吨，焦炭 库存87.32（+10.88）万吨。 ⚫ 上游： ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 马棕油累库超预期 棕榈油区间震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连跌134收于4018林吉特/吨，跌幅 3.23%；棕榈油01合约跌162收于8608元/吨，跌幅 1.85%；豆油01合约跌26收于8240元/吨，跌幅0.31%； 菜油01合约跌10收于9608元/吨，跌幅0.10%；CBOT豆油 主连跌1.1收于50.6美分/磅，跌幅2.13%；ICE油菜籽活 跃合约涨0.2收于618.4加元/吨，涨幅0.03%。 ⚫ 棕榈油领跌油脂，主要是MPOB报告发布，马棕油11月底 期末库存为284万吨，主要由于出口需求大幅大幅，累 库超预期，影响偏空；叠加高频数据显示，12月上旬产 量预估环比增加，出口继续疲软，12月马棕油库存或继 续增 ...