工业硅月报 供需持续失衡，工业硅延续探底 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 2025 年 5 月 7 日 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 16 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 宏观方面，我国4月制造业PMI陷入萎缩，而工业企 业利润同比增速转正，美国对华关税态度软化推动 人民币汇率升值，央行MLF延续净投放，"两新政策" 引领下我国经济内循环将逐渐加速，政治局会议强 调超常规宏观政策储备仍然充裕，我国将继续全力 推进科技创新和高质量发展。 ...

2025 年 5 月 7 日 成本略有抬升 镍价震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 镍月报 ⚫ 宏观层面，特朗普政策反复，市场对关税扰动逐渐脱 敏，月初悲观情绪逐渐修正，但美元指数破位下跌后 的反弹力度有限。美联储官员释放鸽派信号，在更多 经济数据支撑下，联储或在6月开启降息，但4月的新 经济数据表现较佳，降息预期有所推迟。 ⚫ 成本方面，印尼先后2次调降4月内贸基准价格，但其 镍矿供给短 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The risk appetite in the domestic market has rebounded due to the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US officials in Switzerland. The A - share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, and the bond market is influenced by expectations of monetary policy and tariff policies [2]. - Gold prices remain strong, driven by factors such as potential US tariffs on imported drugs, Chinese demand, and the EU's trade stance. The market is awaiting Powell's speech after the Fed meeting [3]. - Copper prices are strengthening as Sino - US economic and trade meetings are about to start, and the global trade situation is expected to improve [4]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure near the 20,000 - yuan mark due to inventory accumulation during the holiday and the approaching seasonal off - season for consumption [6][7]. - Alumina prices have some support from production cuts, but new production capacity in May may weaken this support [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the approaching Sino - US economic and trade talks and the low absolute inventory providing support. Attention should be paid to the liquidity pressure of the current - month contract [10][11]. - Lead prices have limited upside and downside space. Although inventory accumulation during the May Day holiday was small, supply reduction due to the production cut of recycled lead provides some support [12]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation due to the tight balance between supply and demand [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline in the short term due to the imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and cost inversion [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weakly volatile as the supply increase expectation is clear and the market is pessimistic [17]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate as the improvement in fundamentals is limited [18][19]. - Crude oil prices are oscillating. The OPEC + production increase plan and the dim global demand outlook keep the medium - term fundamentals bearish [20]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound due to the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks and policy expectations [21]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate upward due to the improvement in macro - sentiment [22]. - Soybean meal prices may oscillate weakly in the short term due to the increasing domestic soybean arrivals and the expected supply tightening of US soybeans in the long term. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal but has some support from aquaculture demand [23][24]. - Palm oil prices may oscillate weakly due to the increase in supply during the production season and the inventory increase after the holiday [25][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US trade deficit in March reached a record high of $140.5 billion. Sino - US officials will hold talks in Switzerland. The market risk appetite has contracted, the US dollar index has fallen below 100, the US stock market has corrected, the 10Y US Treasury yield has risen to 4.3%, gold prices have increased by more than 2%, and oil prices have risen by nearly 3% [2]. - Domestic: After the holiday, the A - share market had a significant increase in trading volume, with the turnover reaching 1.36 trillion yuan. The market's risk appetite has significantly increased. The bond market is influenced by expectations of monetary policy and tariff policies [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold prices rose by 3.60% on Tuesday, reaching above the $3400 mark. Silver prices also increased by 2.96% to $33.44 per ounce. The increase was due to concerns about US tariffs on imported drugs, strong Chinese demand, and the EU's trade stance [3]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward, and LME copper broke through the $9500 mark. The Sino - US economic and trade high - level meeting is approaching, and the global trade situation is expected to improve. The inventory of LME copper decreased to 196,000 tons [4]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,785 yuan/ton, down 1%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 22,000 tons during the holiday. The market sentiment is cautious, and aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [6][7]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures fell 1.94% to 2675 yuan/ton. An alumina enterprise in Shandong reduced production by 550,000 tons. Production cuts in May provide some support, but new production capacity may weaken it [8][9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated. The inventory of zinc ingots increased during the holiday. Glencore's zinc production in Q1 2025 increased by 4% year - on - year. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the liquidity pressure of the current - month contract [10][11]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated. A small - scale recycled lead smelter in South China plans to stop production for maintenance. The inventory increased slightly during the holiday. Lead prices have limited upside and downside space [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated strongly. The demand for tin is stable but will seasonally weaken later. The supply is expected to improve but remains tight in the second quarter. Tin prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to decline. The inventory of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts remained high. The supply is difficult to expand due to cost inversion, and the demand is weak. Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices were weakly volatile. The supply is expected to increase, and the market is pessimistic. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices oscillated widely. The Indonesian nickel ore reference price has decreased, but the shortage situation has not changed significantly. The production of electrolytic nickel in May is expected to decrease, and stainless steel production is under pressure. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [18][19]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, crude oil prices oscillated strongly. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. OPEC + plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels in June, and the global demand outlook is dim. Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [20]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures opened high and then fell, and rebounded at night. The Sino - US economic and trade talks are approaching, and policy expectations are strengthening. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The inventory of major ports in Australia and Brazil increased. The macro - sentiment has improved, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate upward [22]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - As of May 2, the inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal increased. The sowing progress of US soybeans was 30%. Brazilian farmers plan to expand the soybean planting area. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and soybean meal prices may oscillate weakly. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal but has some support [23][24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil prices fell. The production of Malaysian palm oil in April increased by 24.62%, and the production from May 1 - 5 increased by 60.17%. The inventory of three major oils increased. Palm oil prices may oscillate weakly [25][26]. 3.17 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts on May 6, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver [27]. 3.18 Industrial Data - The report presents the industrial data of various metals, such as the inventory, spot price, and basis of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals, comparing the data between May 6 and April 30 [28][30][32].

商品日报 20250430 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普放松汽车关税，国内关注今日中国 PMI 海外方面，3 月美国职位空缺数降至去年 9 月来新低、4 月美国谘商会消费者信心暴跌 至近五年低点、美国 3 月份商品贸易逆差扩大至 1620 亿美元。特朗普签署行政令减缓美股 汽车进口关税、利于美国本土车企，同时外媒称其拟将 AI 芯片作为贸易谈判的新筹码。尽 管美国经济数据偏弱，但关税政策放宽提振市场风偏，美股低开高走，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.17%，金价回调，铜价收涨，油价因市场担忧 OPEC+增产跌幅近 2%， 国内方面，节前市场交投清淡，A 股缩量震荡，两市成交额回落至 1.04 万亿，风格上 北证 50、小微盘股领涨，行业上日用化工、化纤、家居等行业领涨，市场近期热度降温，等 待增量信息指引方向。债市方面，央行持续净投放、资金面整体偏松，同时市场预期 4 月经 济数据偏弱，主要期限国债利率均下行，今日关注 4 月 PMI 制造业数据 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250429 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美债利率持续回落，A 股节前避险情绪浓厚 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续恶化，4 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数大幅低于预期，创 下 2020 年 5 月来新低，关税引发的"滞涨"预期仍在发酵。美财政部上调二季度举债规模 预期至 5140 亿美元，针对债务上限问题的"X 日"将于近期公布。美国财长：首笔贸易协 议可能最早在本周或下周达成，印度或是首批之一。美元指数失守 99 关口，10Y 美债利率 下行至 4.2%、创三周新低，金价、铜价收涨，油价回落。 国内方面，发改委：我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措；将建立 实施育儿补贴制度，定向增发购车指标。常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备。央行：将适时 降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具。A 股继续缩量下跌，两市成交额回落至 1.08 万 亿，假期前夕避险情绪浓厚，风格上北证 50、小微盘股跌幅较大， ...

镍周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 关注矿端与政策扰动风险 镍价震荡 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫ 宏观面，特朗普释放关税调整信号，中美关税争端迎 来曙光，市场风险偏好降温。美国经济观察报告重申 关税对经济的扰动，美联储官员表示，在获得更多经 济数据支撑后，美联储或在6月开启降息。 ⚫ 基本面：虽然印尼官方下调4月（二期）镍矿内贸基 准价格，但印尼红土镍矿的FOB价格依然偏 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 关税缓解 铝价震荡回升 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 ⚫ 上周贸易战传缓和风险情绪释放。海外经济数据好 坏参半，欧美制造业PMI强于预期，但世界货币基 金组织下调全球经济增速，未来全球需求忧虑仍 存。国内政治局会议召开，会议要求强化底线思维， 备足预案，"稳就业"成为首要任务。预计二季度 将加快落实相关政策。基本面，供应端电解铝产能 大稳小动，仍以山东至云南的置换产能为主。消费 端，下游加工企业开工分化，线缆及工业型材板块 保持增速，铝合金及板带板块稳定，贸易摩擦下后 续铝箔板块或受影响下行。不过临近五一小长假， 下游备货意愿稍强，接货较好。上周铝锭社会库存 电解铝锭库存65.8万吨，较周四减少3.1万吨；国 内主流消费地铝棒库存17.78万吨，较上周四减少 3.14万吨万吨。 ⚫ 综上，市场消化关税缓和消息及过内政策利好，将 推动市场部分逢低买盘。不过还需看到美国的明确 关税新高与之相互矛盾，且经济数据好坏参半，全 球需求担忧仍存。基本面供应稳定，消费旺季尾声， 需求尚有韧性，本周正值五一 ...

铅周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 供需呈现双弱 铅价震荡盘整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价围绕万七波动。宏观面看，特朗普 对华关税态度缓和，同时美联储释放降息言论，市场 情绪修复，基本面定价权重略提升。 要点 基本面看，铅矿进口开启，进口货源补充下，铅矿供 应紧张程度有限，加工费多维稳，高富含的矿源较抢 手。废旧电瓶供应不足，回收商惜售，价格延续上涨 ...

锌周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 锌价反弹放缓 关注假期风险 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价反弹。宏观面看，特朗普对华关税态度 缓和，同时美联储官员释放降息言论，市场情绪修复。周 五国内政治局会议召开，存量政策加速释放且对增量政策 保留空间。基本面看，Antamina 矿因事故短暂停产，不 改当前全球锌矿供应恢复格局。5 月炼厂常规检修较多， 预计产量减量在 2 万吨附近。当前比价下，锌锭进口未能 持续开启，市场进口货源尚有限。持货商担忧供应收紧， 部分惜售，现货升水走高。需求端看，镀锌企业开工环比 下滑，特高压订单逐步释放，但普通铁塔订单有所回落， 出口企业担忧关税反复，抢出口订单小增但增量有限，部 分镀锌企业五一放假 1-5 天；部分合金企业节前上调开 工，但终端部分板块消费转淡，部分出口至欧美订单减少， 叠加长假影响，开工预期下滑；陶瓷级氧化锌订单平稳， 轮胎级订单下滑，同时抢出口订单不明显，氧化锌开工环 比小降。不过受下游逢低补库及持货商惜售加持，库存延 续良好去库，库存降至 8.58 万吨，绝对水平较低。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 huang.lei@jyqh. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices remained volatile. The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the Fed may cut interest rates if the job market deteriorates. The US significantly reduced tariffs on China, but the two sides have not entered the formal negotiation stage, causing market concerns. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits turned positive, and the central bank conducted net MLF injections. The domestic economic cycle is accelerating. Fundamentally, the spot TC negative value dropped to -$40, the domestic trade spot premium was high, and the B structure of the futures market narrowed. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, pending further clarity on the Sino-US trade situation [2][3][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From April 18th to April 25th, LME copper rose from $9,254/ton to $9,360/ton, a 1.15% increase; COMEX copper rose from 470.5 cents/pound to 490.05 cents/pound, a 4.16% increase; SHFE copper rose from 76,140 yuan/ton to 77,440 yuan/ton, a 1.71% increase; international copper rose from 67,750 yuan/ton to 68,990 yuan/ton, a 1.83% increase. The Shanghai-London ratio rose from 8.23 to 8.27 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of April 25th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 563,461 tons, a 9.44% decrease from April 18th. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 9,950 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 54,858 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 2,800 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 8,849 short tons [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro Factors**: The IMF lowered the 2025 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%. The US may adjust tariffs on Chinese goods, and the Fed may cut interest rates if the job market worsens. Domestically, in Q1, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and in March, they increased by 2.6% year-on-year [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The spot weekly TC once widened to -$40. The global mine supply is expected to remain tight in the medium term. Domestic smelters maintain high operating rates, but imports decreased in March. In terms of demand, the bidding progress of power grid investment projects is slow, but the start-up rate of cable enterprises in March rebounded to 73.6%. The new energy industry has stable copper demand growth [10]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25th, the total global copper inventory decreased to 563,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME0 - 3 structure turned to C. The cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 37.9%. SHFE inventory decreased by 55,000 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 2,800 tons. The COMEX copper inventory increased to 132,000 tons [8]. 3. Industry News - Peru's Antamina copper mine had a mining accident, and production is expected to be significantly affected. In February 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 61,000 tons. In Q1, MMG's copper concentrate production reached 120,000 tons, and the production of its African mine increased. The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China increased slightly, and the start-up of refined copper rod enterprises is expected to slowly recover in early May [12][13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in various regions, copper spot premium trends, and the net long - position ratio of COMEX copper non - commercial traders, etc., to visually display the market situation [15][16][19]