海外方面，特朗普关税政策远超市场预期，其宣布对所有进口美国产品征收 10%基础关 税，并对主要贸易伙伴施加更高税率，加剧全球贸易战。其中，对中国征收 34%对等关税、 对欧盟征收 20%；若计入此前对中国加征的 20%，中国商品关税总计将达 54%。关税细则 公布后市场衰退预期发酵，避险交易加剧，美元指数回落至 103 关口，10Y 美债利率最低回 落至 4.03%，美股盘后纳指期货回调超 4%，金价再创 3167 美元新高。在关税猛烈冲击全球 投资者预期后，关注各国谈判进展（10%基础关税将在 4 月 5 日执行，对等关税将在 4 月 9 日执行），以及美国经济基本面数据（4 月 4 日非农、4 月 10 日 CPI）。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250403 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普关税政策超预期鹰派，国内资产避险情绪将加剧 国内方面，A 股缩量震荡，两市成交额跌破万亿关口，市场热度持续降温，资金涌入红 利避险板块，面对特朗普对华超预期关税落地， ...

Group 1: General Market Overview - A - share trading volume is shrinking, and market sentiment is cooling. The market may continue to avoid risks related to Trump's tariff policies and a marginal slowdown in the economic fundamentals in early April. The bond market shows tight liquidity, with both short - and long - term bond yields rising [2][3] - The US economic data is mixed, with manufacturing PMI slightly weakening and the employment market relatively stable. The US dollar index is stable, and the macro - impact is limited [18] - The "equivalent tariff" policy in the US is about to be announced, and countries such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU have expressed their stances, with some warning of counter - measures [2] Group 2: Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Gold and silver may face correction risks after the tariff policy is implemented due to profit - taking and a possible shift in trading logic [4][5] Group 3: Copper - US manufacturing PMI has returned to the contraction range, and the risk of stagflation is increasing. Overseas investment banks expect the benchmark tariff rate to reach 10% - 15%. The cancellation of the arbitration of the Panama copper mine may lead to its possible复产 this year, and domestic copper production is rising. Copper prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [6][7] Group 4: Aluminum - Macroeconomic factors dominate, and aluminum prices are under pressure. Although the fundamentals show some support on the supply side, the concerns about demand due to the US manufacturing PMI contraction and tariff uncertainty lead to a decline in market risk sentiment, and aluminum prices are oscillating [8][9] Group 5: Alumina - Alumina has sufficient supply, weak consumption elasticity, and an oversupply situation. The cost support may weaken, and it is expected to continue its weak operation [10] Group 6: Zinc - The market is focused on the tariff details. Zinc prices are under pressure due to the expected significant increase in refined zinc supply in April. However, the low - level restocking by downstream enterprises and low inventory provide some weak support, and zinc prices are expected to operate weakly [11] Group 7: Lead - The production of electrolytic lead and recycled lead in March exceeded expectations, and it is expected to increase slightly in April. The downstream battery market is in the off - season, and lead prices are expected to run weakly, with attention paid to the performance near the 40 - day moving average [12] Group 8: Tin - Due to the postponement of the tin mine复产 meeting in Myanmar and the uncertain复产 time of the Congo - Kinshasa mine, tin prices have reached new highs this year. However, the consumption growth rate cannot match the price increase, and there is a large supply - demand contradiction. Caution is needed when chasing the price [13][14] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon is slowly recovering, and the high inventory drags down the spot market. The demand shows a weak recovery, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The supply of domestic lithium salts is expected to have limited growth, and the demand from cathode manufacturers is gradually expanding. However, due to the high inventory pressure, the price is oscillating at a low level [16] Group 11: Nickel - The Indonesian tax reform policy has been delayed, and potential risks remain. Although steel mills' stainless - steel production in April is still at a high level, attention should be paid to the production compliance rate under high - inventory pressure. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [18] Group 12: Crude Oil - Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations. In the medium - to - long term, there is a bearish expectation due to OPEC + production increases, and oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [19] Group 13: Steel Products - Steel futures rebounded on Tuesday, and spot trading volume increased. However, the demand growth rate is expected to slow down in April, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [20] Group 14: Iron Ore - Port inventory has increased, and overseas shipments and arrivals have also increased. The growth rate of molten iron production has slowed down, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [21][22] Group 15: Bean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans rose due to policy support, but domestic bean and rapeseed meal prices fell. With a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving, the spot price is under pressure. Both are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the upcoming tariff policy [23][24] Group 16: Palm Oil - US biodiesel policy may increase production, boosting the price of US soybean oil and domestic palm oil. Palm oil is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the continuation of the policy's impact [25] Group 17: Metal Trading Data - Presented the closing data of major metal futures contracts on Tuesday, including prices, changes, trading volumes, and open interests [26] Group 18: Industrial Data - Provided the daily changes in industrial data of various metals from April 1 to March 31, such as warehouse receipts, inventory, spot prices, and price spreads [27][30][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Tariff expectations intensify risk - averse trading. Overseas, tariff disturbances increase market risk - averse sentiment. Domestically, the economy may cool down in Q2. Trump's tariff increase expectations disrupt global risk assets, and the bond market pressure will weaken compared to March [2][3]. - Gold prices hit a new high due to concerns about US tariffs triggering inflation and hindering economic growth. Silver prices are weak due to the decline in copper prices. The short - term gold price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed after the tariff policy is implemented [4]. - Copper prices are expected to decline in the short - term. The US economic stagflation risk is rising, and the global economic slowdown expectation is strengthened. The copper market's fundamental tightness at the mine end remains unchanged, but the current trading focus is on overseas trade situations [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to tariff uncertainties. Although the fundamentals support is still good, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak as the market supply is still abundant, and there is no large - scale maintenance or production reduction in the short term [10][11]. - Zinc prices have fallen significantly. The approaching of the equal - tariff policy makes the market trading sentiment cautious, and the zinc price is expected to remain weak before the tariff is implemented [12]. - Lead prices are weakly sorted due to weak supply and demand. The short - term lead price will fluctuate around the macro - sentiment and is expected to be weakly adjusted [13]. - Tin prices are supported by supply - side tightening expectations, but the approaching of Trump's tariff increases macro - risks. Short - term chasing of high prices should be cautious, and attention should be paid to the situation in Myanmar [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are bottom - oscillating. High inventory restricts the upward momentum of the spot market, and the short - term price is expected to continue to build the bottom [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating at a low level. High inventory suppresses demand, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate [18]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate. The cost and demand drive the nickel - iron price to be strong, but the stainless - steel inventory pressure may affect the demand for nickel - iron. Pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [19][20]. - Crude oil prices have risen due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict. The short - term oil market may be affected by emotions, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. - Steel prices are oscillating. The demand growth rate is slowing down, and attention should be paid to the impact of the main contract change on the market [22]. - Iron ore prices are mainly oscillating. The overseas supply has increased, and the iron - water production growth rate has slowed down [23][24]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. The USDA's end - of - month report is relatively neutral, and the domestic soybean inventory decline is slowing down [25][26]. - Palm oil prices may oscillate within a range. The export of Malaysian palm oil may increase, and the domestic palm oil is slowly destocking [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of major futures markets yesterday, including contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., with details of closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units [29]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - The table presents the industrial data of various metals on March 31 and March 28, including price changes, inventory changes, and other information of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal [30][33][35].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Macro aspect: The US "reciprocal tariff" is about to be implemented, leading to strong market risk - aversion sentiment. The Fed's policy direction may be more volatile. US economic data in Q4 were generally good, but demand - side performance declined [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Nickel ore shortage persists, with the price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore rising. Nickel - iron has high cost and demand, with low inventory and a strong price trend. However, downstream stainless - steel has high inventory, and the resilience of demand is questionable. The nickel sulfate market has little change, with a slight price increase. Driven by export profits, domestic pure - nickel production and export scale have reached new highs, and the domestic bearish pattern continues [3]. - Future outlook: Indonesian policy disturbances are coming, and price fluctuations may intensify. The new tax - reform policy may increase the cost of pure nickel by $400 - 600 per ton. Domestically, the bearish fundamental expectation may deepen marginally, as stainless - steel high inventory and low probability of high production in April, along with pessimism in the negative - electrode material factories, suggest weak demand, while supply may remain high due to export profits [3][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 129,190 yuan/ton on March 21, 2025, to 131,600 yuan/ton on March 28, 2025, an increase of 2,410 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from $16,057/ton to $16,380/ton, an increase of $323/ton. LME inventory decreased by 372 tons to 200,304 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 472 tons to 26,799 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of Russian nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 5 yuan/nickel point, and stainless - steel inventory decreased by 14,500 tons to 957,000 tons [4]. 2. Market Review - **Nickel ore**: The FOB price of Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore remained stable, while the domestic price of Indonesian 1.6% laterite nickel ore rose. Due to the rainy season in the Philippines and continuous shortage in Indonesia, the price may rise further [5]. - **Nickel - iron**: The average ex - factory price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose. In March, Chinese nickel - iron production increased slightly, and Indonesian production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. However, stainless - steel terminal demand was weak, and inventory pressure was prominent, which may suppress the future price of nickel - iron [6]. - **Nickel sulfate**: The prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In March, nickel sulfate production increased, and ternary material production rebounded. The negative - electrode material factories were pessimistic about April's demand, but the concentrated auto shows in April may stimulate potential demand [7]. - **Macro**: US Q4 GDP grew steadily, but demand - related data were weak. US consumption was weak due to residents' pessimistic expectations. Whether the suppressed consumption potential can be released depends on the impact of tariff policies on the economy. Specific economic data were also provided [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: In March, domestic production capacity expanded, and the operating rate decreased, but production reached a new high. The expected refined - nickel production in March was 32,160 tons, and the export profit was $218.35/ton [9]. - **Consumption**: In the new - energy field, new - energy vehicle sales increased significantly in March, and the new - for - old policy had a significant driving effect. In the traditional field, the sales volume and area of commercial housing increased slightly, and the central bank released signals of interest - rate and reserve - ratio cuts [10]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of pure nickel increased, while the SHFE and LME inventories decreased. The total inventory of the two major exchanges decreased by 844 tons [11]. 3. Industry News - MBMA will build an HPAL factory in Indonesia with an annual capacity of 90,000 tons of nickel in the form of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) [13]. - Qingyan Environment plans to bid for 51% of the equity of Fujian Tonghai Nickel Industry [13]. - LME was fined £920,000 (about $1.19 million) for its inadequate response to the 2022 nickel market squeeze [13]. - The MHP project in Morowali Park was affected by floods in Indonesia, with production reduced for about a week, and the affected volume is yet to be confirmed [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [15][17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 44 to close at 4,420 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; the palm oil 05 contract closed at 9,088 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the soybean oil 05 contract fell 36 to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decrease; the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 106 to close at 9,271 yuan/ton, a 1.16% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 3.18 to close at 45.2 cents/pound, a 7.57% increase; the ICE canola active contract rose 40.8 to close at 613.3 Canadian dollars/ton, a 7.13% increase [2][6]. - During the week, palm oil first declined and then rose, showing an overall range - bound oscillation. Three institutions' data indicated that Malaysian palm oil production increased month - on - month, and the producing areas are gradually entering the production - increasing season. Export demand remained relatively weak, causing palm oil to decline at the beginning of the week. However, Indonesia's policy of increasing export taxes has been implemented, and the funds will be used for the promotion of the B40 policy. There is still expected support for demand growth. Additionally, Trump reached a consensus on the biodiesel policy, which will increase biodiesel production. Coupled with the unexpectedly high export sales of US soybean oil, the sharp rise in US soybean oil drove palm oil to close higher and return to the range - bound oscillation [3][6]. - Macroscopically, the US tariff policy on April 2 is still uncertain, which has caused the US stock market to oscillate and decline, and the US dollar index to oscillate. Affected by supply concerns, oil prices oscillated and closed higher during the week. Fundamentally, palm oil in the producing areas has entered the production - increasing season, and export demand is still affected by high prices, limiting the upside. Indonesia's policy of increasing export taxes has been implemented to prepare for the implementation of the biodiesel policy, which may be implemented rhythmically later. The US may increase the production of biodiesel, boosting the sharp rise of US soybean oil and providing support for the domestic oil market. Overall, palm oil may oscillate [3][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 3.18 to 45.2 cents/pound, a 7.57% increase; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 44 to 4,420 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; the DCE palm oil contract remained unchanged at 9,088 yuan/ton; the DCE soybean oil contract fell 36 to 7,986 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 106 to 9,271 yuan/ton, a 1.16% increase. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 9,670 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 8,260 yuan/ton, a 1.31% decrease; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, a 1.09% increase [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: According to SPPOMA, from March 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield increased by 7.01%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.33%, and production increased by 5.1% month - on - month. UOB estimated that as of March 20, Malaysian palm oil production was expected to increase by 4 - 8%. MPOA reported that from March 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production was estimated to increase by 9.48% [7]. - Exports: According to SGS, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25 was 678,698 tons, a 4.23% decrease from the same period last month. ITS data showed a 8.08% decrease, and AmSpec Agri data showed a 8.47% decrease. Indonesia's palm oil export volume in February was 2.08 million tons, a 42% increase from January [8]. - Inventory: As of the week of March 21, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.0452 million tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 208,200 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 881,200 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 6,100 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 388,300 tons, a decrease of 34,300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 177,700 tons from the same period last year [9]. - Transaction volume: As of the week of March 28, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 14,620 tons, compared with 13,100 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 1,019 tons, compared with 265 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - RHB Research stated that Indonesia's implementation of the mandatory B40 biodiesel blending plan will support high palm oil prices. It is expected that the increase in domestic biodiesel blending demand may tighten global supply, and Indonesia's crude palm oil export volume in 2025 will decrease by 7%. The average price forecast of crude palm oil this year remains unchanged at 4,300 ringgit/ton [10]. - Indonesian authorities will transfer 216,997 hectares of plantation land to the state - owned palm company Agrinas Palma Nusantara. Earlier this month, prosecutors also transferred 221,000 hectares of illegal palm oil plantations to Agrinas [10]. - Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April to $961.54 per ton. Under the new reference price, the export tariff for crude palm oil in April will be $124 per ton. Indonesia also imposes a 7.5% special export tax on crude palm oil, and the special export tax rate for refined palm oil products is 3% - 6% of the reference price [8][11]. - Despite the decline in production, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of January increased by 13.98% from the previous month to 2.936 million tons because the export volume dropped to a four - month low. In January, Indonesia exported 1.96 million tons of palm oil products, a 30% decrease from the same period last year [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][33][34][35][36][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][52].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - The consumption growth rate of new energy vehicles has declined, but the overall resilience is acceptable. The supply remains high, and the supply structure is in the transition stage, with no significant changes in the fundamentals [4]. - During the reporting period, the prices of spodumene and lepidolite both declined slightly [4]. - The cost center is expected to move down, and the fundamentals may be marginally corrected. Lithium prices will maintain low - level fluctuations. With the inflow of low - cost salt lake resources, the scale of high - cost hard rock lithium extraction will gradually shrink, and the comprehensive cost center of circulating resources is expected to decline. In April, the production schedule of battery cell factories may expand, and potential consumption is expected to be boosted by auto shows and replacement policies. The supply is expected to decline in April, but the current lithium salt is still in the inventory accumulation stage, suppressing the upward space of lithium prices. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [4]. Group 3: Market Data Summary - Imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) price decreased from $121/ton to $118/ton, a decrease of 2.48% [6]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) price decreased from $743/ton to $730/ton, a decrease of 1.75% [6]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) price decreased from $743/ton to $730/ton, a decrease of 1.75% [6]. - The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,200 yuan/ton to 74,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% [6]. - The spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped from 72,900 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100% [6]. - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased from 73,100 yuan/ton to 73,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% [6]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory increased from 85,459 tons to 88,528 tons, an increase of 3.59% [6]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of March 28, 2025, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 35,782 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 74,100 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2505 was 218,300 lots [8]. - As of March 28, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17,365 tons, a decrease of 120 tons from the previous period. With the warming of the northern climate, salt lake lithium production has resumed, and the comprehensive cost of circulating resources is expected to decline [8]. - In February, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 12,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The import volume from Chile was 7,572 tons, accounting for about 61%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 40%. The import volume from Argentina was 4,388 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.5% and a year - on - year increase of 77.3%. The export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile in February was about 14,600 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 27% and 43% respectively. The export volume to China was 12,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 25% and 37% respectively. The import resources are expected to be abundant in March and may shrink from April [9]. - In February, the import volume of lithium ore was about 567,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9% [10]. - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of March 21, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 59,211 tons, with an operating rate of 54.84%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 36,245 tons, an increase of 191 tons from the previous period. The production of ternary materials was about 13,150 tons, with an operating rate of 41.9%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,835 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous period. The prices of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate remained relatively stable. The cost side was relatively stable, and the demand for energy storage showed a downward trend, while the power terminal was relatively stable [11]. - In the new energy vehicle field, from March 1 - 23, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 622,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 30% compared with the same period in March last year and a month - on - month increase of 40%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.048 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34%. As of March 14, about 1.3 million applications for automobile trade - in subsidies had been received, and the trade - in consumption accounted for about 70.81%. The new policy has a significant driving effect on new energy consumption. The "Boosting Consumption Special Action Plan" was issued, and the policy resilience is expected to be strong [12]. - As of March 21, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 88,528 tons, an increase of about 3,069 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory decreased by 1,600 tons, and the market inventory increased by 4,669 tons. The downstream replenished inventory, but the demand increase was less than the supply increase, and the de - stocking of lithium salt factories was far less than the inventory increase downstream [13]. This Week's Outlook - The bearish expectation continues. The cost center is expected to move down, the fundamentals may be marginally corrected, and lithium prices will maintain low - level fluctuations. Attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Group 5: Industry News - Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars, which is expected to bring an additional $100 billion in revenue to the United States each year [15]. - CoreLithium said that the restart research of the Finniss lithium mine project was progressing well and was expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2025. The company terminated the last operation contract, completed all obligations to third - parties, and obtained 100% ownership of all infrastructure, which is expected to reduce future operating costs [15]. - Japan made an initial anti - dumping ruling on Chinese graphite electrodes, with a dumping margin of 104.61% [16]. - Tibet Summit's "Annual 30,000 - ton Lithium Carbonate Salt Lake Lithium Extraction Construction Project" in Angeles has officially obtained the "Environmental Impact Statement". The first - phase 10,000 - ton equipment has arrived at the site, and the company is promoting project construction [16]. Group 6: Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those on lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and the production of related cathode materials and batteries [18][20][22]

豆粕周报 关注意向面积报告 连粕下方空间或有限 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆5月合约涨12.25收于1022.25美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅1.21%；豆粕05合约跌48收于2813元/吨，跌幅 1.68%；华南豆粕现货跌170收于3030元/吨，跌幅5.31%； 菜粕05合约跌29收于2569元/吨，跌幅1.12%；广西菜粕现 货跌40收于2480元/吨，跌幅1.59%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / ...

钢材周报 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 3 月 31 日 主力合约切换 期价震荡运行 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 需求端：3月24日，新疆八钢（不包含巴州和伊犁基 地）、昆仑、昆玉和闽新四家钢厂发布消息，主动减 产10%，以当前四家企业生产情况推算，预计日均减 少粗钢产量0.2万吨左右。 ⚫ 供应端：上周螺纹产量227万吨，环比增加1万吨，表 需245万吨，增加2万吨，螺纹厂库210万吨，减少10 万吨 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 3 月 31 日 对等关税临近，金价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格继续维持强势运行，国际金价站上3100美 元/盎司，再创历史新高，银价也站上35美元/盎司上方。 随着美国实行"对等关税"的时间4月2日临近，市场对美 经济的滞胀担忧上升，推动避险情绪攀升，支撑贵金属价 格继续走高。上周五美元指数因对经济增长的担忧而走 软，美债收益率下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Demand side: Last week, the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down. After the previous centralized restart of blast furnaces, there is limited room for further increase in hot metal. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 82.11%, a week-on-week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 5.51 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3728 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 159,700 tons [2]. - Supply side: Affected by the previous shipments, the number of arriving ships decreased last week, and the arrival volume declined. Recently, the shipments have increased month-on-month and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past three years. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil last week were 25.152 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.615 million tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 149.794 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 649,100 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2531 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons [2]. - Overall: The supply side was affected by the previous shipments, with a decrease in the number of arriving ships and a decline in arrival volume last week. Recently, the shipments have increased month-on-month and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past three years. On the demand side, the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down last week. After the previous centralized restart of blast furnaces, there is limited room for further increase in hot metal. This year, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase, and the decline in demand is mainly due to the restrictions of China's crude steel production control policy. In the medium and long term, supply is strong and demand is weak. Recently, the growth rate of hot metal production has slowed down, and in the short term, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3,197 yuan/ton, a rise of 41 yuan, a rise rate of 1.30%, a total trading volume of 10,158,406 lots, and a total open interest of 3,149,809 lots [3]. - SHFE hot-rolled coil had a closing price of 3,374 yuan/ton, a rise of 23 yuan, a rise rate of 0.69%, a total trading volume of 2,423,951 lots, and a total open interest of 832,160 lots [3]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 785.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 28 yuan, a rise rate of 3.70%, a total trading volume of 1,496,772 lots, and a total open interest of 412,123 lots [3]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 1,024 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan, a rise rate of 1.39%, a total trading volume of 1,388,421 lots, and a total open interest of 515,162 lots [3]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1,617.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 81.5 yuan, a rise rate of 5.31%, a total trading volume of 137,642 lots, and a total open interest of 53,611 lots [3]. Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures rose. The resumption of production of steel mills accelerated, and the hot metal increased month-on-month, supporting the rebound of ore prices. In the spot market, the quotation of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 784 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 23 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 645 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 11 yuan/ton. The price difference between high and low grades of spot PB powder and Super Special powder was 139 yuan/ton [5]. - On the demand side, the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down last week. After the previous centralized restart of blast furnaces, there is limited room for further increase in hot metal. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 82.11%, a week-on-week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 5.51 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.08%, a week-on-week increase of 0.38 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.32 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills was 53.68%, a week-on-week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 25.11 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 2.3728 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 159,700 tons [5]. - On the supply side, affected by the previous shipments, the number of arriving ships decreased last week, and the arrival volume declined. Recently, the shipments have increased month-on-month and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past three years. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil last week were 25.152 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.615 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 18.786 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 540,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.926 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 458,000 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 6.365 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.56 million tons. The total global iron ore shipments this period were 30.847 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.212 million tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 149.794 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 649,100 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2531 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [6]. Industry News - Jiang Wei, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee, Vice President, and Secretary-General of the China Iron and Steel Association, stated that the imbalance between supply and demand is the main contradiction affecting the current industry development. Production control and industry self-discipline production reduction are only expedients. Effectively closing the entrance for new production capacity, quickly smoothing the exit channel for backward production capacity, and establishing a new mechanism for production capacity management are the keys to solving the current main contradictions in the industry [7][8]. - US President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, and the relevant measures will take effect on April 2. Trump also said that the United States will impose tariffs on wood and drugs [11]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Work Plan for the National Carbon Emission Trading Market to Cover the Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Industries", marking that the work of expanding the industry coverage scope of the national carbon emission trading market for the first time has officially entered the implementation stage [11]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the futures and spot trends of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, the basis trends of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, the profit per ton of steel for steel mills, the profit and loss situation of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, the spot landing profit of PB powder, the national steel daily output, the national steel output (ten-day), the national and Tangshan billet inventory, the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil, the increase rate of the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil, the steel mill inventory, the weekly output of rebar and hot-rolled coil for steel mills, the apparent consumption of steel, the terminal procurement volume of Shanghai wire rod and rebar, the daily average output of national pig iron and crude steel, the ten-day output of national pig iron and crude steel, the profitability of steel mills across the country, the daily average hot metal production across the country, the port inventory of 45 ports, the port inventory of main ports, the national electric furnace operation situation, the blast furnace operating rate across the country, the port inventory of 45 ports by iron ore type, the average available days of iron ore for steel mills, the total inventory of iron ore for steel mills, the total daily consumption of iron ore for steel mills, the number of ships at ports for 45 ports, the daily average port clearance volume of iron ore, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, the iron ore arrival volume at the six northern ports, the national steel mill scrap daily consumption, the national steel mill scrap inventory, the steel mill scrap arrival volume, and the national steel mill scrap arrival volume [10][12][13][15][16][18][20][24][25][27][30][33][34][37][38][39][42][43][47][50].