-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看多 焦煤——震荡 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 钢厂主动减产，煤焦反弹 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 25 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1.新疆八钢、昆仑和闵新四家钢厂发布消息，主动减产 10%。 焦煤： 现货偏弱，期货反弹。唐山主焦煤报 1335 元/吨(-30)，京唐港山西产主焦煤报 1380(- 0)。活跃合约报 1030 元/吨(+20)。基差 305 元/吨(+50)，5-9 月差-58.5 元/吨（+8.5）。 供给小幅回升，需求继续下行。110 家洗煤厂开 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 供应前景改善，原糖短期震荡观望 | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-03-23 | 2025-03-24 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 19.69 | 19.28 | -2.08% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 65.35 | 65.46 | 0.17% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-03-21 | 2025-03-24 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6160.0 | 6150.0 | -0.16% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5985.0 | 6010.0 | 0.42% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.04% | | | 棉花（新疆） | 1 ...

期货研究报告 金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报 戴朝盛—宏观分析师 从业资格证号：F03118012 投资咨询证号：Z0019368 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：daichaosheng@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 3 月 16 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 国内经济：社融总量依靠政府债券支撑，内需仍然疲弱，M1 同比增速再 次转弱，仅为 0.1%。企业部门和居民部门融资同比增速均保持在历史低位。 根据历史规律，只有企业部门和居民部门融资增速均保持上升后，制造业 PMI 才会呈现稳定回升趋势。照目前的形势看，离经济回升还比较远。 房地产高频跟踪：本周，一线和二、三线城市新房销售量继续分化，二三 线城市继续沿着 2024 年路线运行，一线城市销量则仍远高于 2024 年同期 水平。二手房方面，截至 3 月 3 日，一、二、三线城市挂盘价指数有所分 化。一线城市挂盘价指数持平 ...

期货研究报告 金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 宏观月报 戴朝盛—宏观分析师 从业资格证号：F03118012 投资咨询证号：Z0019368 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：daichaosheng@cindasc.com 警惕季节性 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 3 月 4 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 国内：2 月处于经济数据真空期，部分已出炉的数据也会受到春节等季节 性效应影响，基本面整体较难捕捉。但根据以往经验，在前期较弱的基础上， 即使一个月数据出现回暖，也不能就此断定基本面出现明显改善，我们需要 观察到数据的持续好转才能下定论。两会政策超预期的概率很小，只要符合 预期其实就是一种利好，目前仍可以该思维对待。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款1 [Table_Chart] | 一、 | 国内：数据真空期，两会预期发酵 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、 | 国外：特朗普关税政策 ...

Group 1: Domestic Economic Outlook - The current economic environment is characterized by a data vacuum, making it difficult to capture fundamentals, with upcoming policy expectations from the Two Sessions gaining traction[1] - The proposed fiscal measures include a 4% deficit rate and issuance of CNY 1.3 trillion in special bonds, with CNY 500 billion allocated for new infrastructure and CNY 800 billion for dual-use projects[1] - A total of CNY 4.4 trillion in special bonds and a CNY 4 trillion real estate storage plan over five years are also anticipated, which aligns with market expectations, leading to a generally positive market sentiment[1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - New home sales are showing seasonal recovery, significantly deviating from the 2022 trend, indicating stabilization in the new housing market[8] - The listing price index for second-hand homes is experiencing a downward trend, with first-tier cities maintaining relatively high levels while second and third-tier cities show signs of bottoming out[8] - Continued observation is required for the new home sales in the spring and the potential stabilization of the second-hand home market[8] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market remains under pressure due to a tight funding environment, with the central bank's net injections still in negative territory[2] - The yield on ten-year government bonds has surpassed 1.7%, influenced by ongoing discussions around policy measures as the Two Sessions approach[2] - Short-term interest rates are becoming more attractive, while the configuration of long-term rates is gradually improving[2] Group 4: U.S. Dollar and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar continues to decline, influenced by weaker-than-expected economic data, including a significantly lower services PMI and rising unemployment claims[22] - The spread between U.S. and European interest rates is narrowing, driven by the relative weakness of the U.S. economy compared to Europe[22] - The dollar index is currently around 106.6, with expectations for further declines in the coming week[22]

Economic Outlook - The market is optimistic about China's AI sector following the rise of Deepseek, with discussions increasing significantly[1] - The upcoming Two Sessions are raising market attention, although expectations for policy changes are already high, making significant surprises unlikely[1] - Local government GDP growth targets for 2025 are set at around 5%, indicating a more pragmatic approach compared to 2024[6][7] Real Estate Market - New home sales in first, second, and third-tier cities are showing seasonal recovery, but the sustainability of this trend remains to be seen[10] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a rebound in listing price indices, but it is crucial to monitor if this trend can stabilize[10] Bond Market - After the New Year, funding rates have started to decline but remain at relatively high levels; a loosening of the funding environment is expected to lead to lower bond yields[2][18] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently around 1.6%, with expectations for potential reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions in the first quarter[2][18] U.S. Labor Market - In January, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, below the expected 170,000, but previous months' data was revised upward by 100,000[21][24] - The unemployment rate stands at 4%, slightly lower than the expected 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market despite some data volatility[26][27] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year, surpassing expectations[21][25]

Economic Outlook - The domestic economy showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024, primarily driven by policy support, with a GDP growth rate of 5.0% for the year, aligning with government targets[21] - Consumption growth is expected to rebound in 2025, with December retail sales showing a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, consistent with the average growth of 3.43% from 2022 to 2023[7] - Investment in fixed assets saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2% in December 2024, although this represents a decline of 0.1 percentage points from November[13] Real Estate Market - New home sales in first-tier cities continued to decline, while second and third-tier cities maintained relative stability, with second-tier cities still at seasonal lows[22] - Despite weaker data in second-tier cities, the overall real estate market is not expected to perform worse than in 2024, with a forecasted reduction in the drag from the real estate sector in 2025[22] - The real estate investment growth rate remains low, but the downward trend is slowing, indicating potential stabilization[18] Financial Market Conditions - Overall funding rates have significantly increased, leading to tight liquidity conditions for smaller banks and non-bank financial institutions, which has pressured the bond market[26] - The central bank's actions will be crucial in determining whether liquidity conditions improve, especially as the Lunar New Year approaches[26] - The bond market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term but presents a favorable entry point for trend trading[26] U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remains on a downward trajectory, with December CPI at 2.9% year-on-year, and core CPI at 3.2%, both aligning with market expectations[31] - The U.S. economy is still perceived to be in a downward trend, with market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 potentially underestimated[31] - The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Trump administration adds to the volatility in market expectations[31]

Economic Indicators - CPI growth rate in December was only 0.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from November, marking a four-month decline[7] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose for three consecutive months, reaching 0.4% in December[7] Real Estate Market - New home sales in first and third-tier cities are higher than in 2024, but second-tier cities hit a seasonal low[11] - Despite the weakness in second-tier cities, the overall real estate market is not expected to perform worse than in 2024, with a forecast of reduced drag in 2025[12] Bond Market - Recent regulatory measures have led to significant adjustments in the bond market, with short-term bonds experiencing larger declines[16] - The central bank's suspension of government bond purchases may lead to increased expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2025[16] U.S. Labor Market - December's non-farm payrolls added 256,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 160,000[18] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, below the anticipated 4.2%[18] Wage Growth - Average weekly wage growth remains stable, but the Employment Cost Index (ECI) and Atlanta Fed wage growth index are both trending downward, indicating potential pressure on wage growth[18]

期货研究报告 金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报 戴朝盛—宏观分析师 从业资格证号：F03118012 投资咨询证号：Z0019368 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：daichaosheng@cindasc.com 国内经济依赖政策推力，强美元已脱离基本面 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 1 月 5 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 国内经济：12 月制造业 PMI 数据中，需求好转是亮点，但亮点的背后依 然离不开政策的推动。可以想象，假如没有政策，那么这些好转怕都将转瞬 即逝。此外，市场供应充足，原材料价格延续整体下行趋势。成本下降也推 动产成品价格继续下行。走出通缩依然面临重重阻碍。 房地产高频跟踪：本周，一、二、三线城市新房销售季节性回落，总体已 连续三个月企稳。整体而言，地产销售并没有走之前的老路，尽管传导至实 物工作量还需要时间，但可以预期 2025 年地产的拖累程度会相对减轻。 国债：从市场利率与政策利率差额来看，市场或已提前计价 30bp 左右降 息幅度。目前十债 1.6%已阶段性破位，情绪面仍有向下冲的可能性 ...

Consumption - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales was 3%, a significant decline from 4.8% in October[35] - The month-on-month growth rate of retail sales in November was lower than seasonal trends, confirming the weak consumption outlook[35] Investment - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in November was 3.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from October[22] - Private fixed asset investment declined by 0.4%, continuing a negative growth trend for four consecutive months[22] - Month-on-month fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 0.10%, consistent with the average of the past five years (excluding 2020)[22] Real Estate - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of real estate sales turned positive at 3.25%, the first positive growth since 2021, although physical work volume remains poor[6] - New housing sales in first-tier cities have weakened, with sales dropping below the 2021 trend line[25] - The trend of real estate development investment shows an L-shaped bottoming pattern, indicating a prolonged recovery phase[24] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve raised its GDP and PCE inflation expectations while lowering unemployment rate forecasts, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook[9] - The market has priced in a potential interest rate cut of 20-30 basis points for the next year, despite no immediate actions from the central bank[41]